[Garak]

It wasn't intentional.

[QuickTidal]

the broken, on 07 April 2026 - 11:31 PM, said:

Huh. The 'insane threats' policy somehow paid off.

It didn't though. Saner minds than his just gave him a TACO off-ramp to use after his abuser rhetoric wasn't working and he was getting closer to losing face or nuking Iran...this is 100% TACO. It's just tACO by intermediary.

The "Insane threats" did nothing. As evidenced by the fact that Iran didn't balk at the threats and the citizens of Iran stood in front of power plants in defiance of any US strike.

FFS the TACO'ing came with like 1hour to his stupid deadline...Pakistan just saved his face for him by stepping in.

[QuickTidal]

So Iran is now threatening to pull out of the ceasefire as Lebanon is still being attacked, and Lebanon NOT being attacked was part of the ceasefire deal...

I'll give you three fucking guesses which genocidal land-grabbing state govt is still attacking Lebanon despite the ceasefire agreement...and the first two don't count.

Goddamn Netanyahu and his cabinet need overthrown. This is insane at this point...they got Trump to back down but Bibi's like "Nah, my life's work is making Israel as illegally large as I can"...and unless the US stands up to him...

[Abyss]

wanna bet they declare that they're attacking Hezbollah, not Lebanon?

[Grief]

The level of detail in the leaks to the NYT has been remarkable. I highly recommend reading it. A summary won't do it justice. And just think about what is happening for these journalists have come to get the play-by-play down to seating arrangements around the war room table.

They paint a stark picture of how Trump has surrounded himself with yes men in his second term. You have senior officials and generals that are unwilling to voice persistent dissent, that tell Trump that whatever decision he lands on will be the right one as if by the fact alone, when it comes to a massive foreign policy question and a massive break from the party campaign platform.

As I'd speculated in my response to the broken, it looks clear they were looking for the exits even before Trump's public threats. It looks like theatre given everything that has happened since.

The administration's top priority looks like extricating itself and trying to sell whatever they can back home. You can see that in the muted response to Iranian actions, going so far as to claim that easily verified facts about how little has been moving through the Strait are fake news.

Israel, having played an instrumental role in starting the war, seems transparently set on avoiding de-escalation. Might Israel have finally overplayed their hand with the US? Public sentiment towards them is starting from a low point, the conspirational America first groups on the far-right are hardly their natural allies, and Trump can be very sensitive and very self-interested... but it is still Israel at the end of the day. It is hard to bet on the US breaking from them in a meaningful way.

[the broken]

I mean, of course they were looking for the exits, that's a given. That's why the crazy threats were done in the first place. The negotiations were happening long before then, even though Iran was denying it.

Lots of people seem to decide to fervently believe both 'he's about to use nukes' and 'TACO' at the same time.



Anyone know where we can get an organisation chart or something about who the surviving key figures in Iran are? If the hardline militants were in control and all they wanted was revenge, then they couldn't have agreed to a ceasefire in the first place.

[Maark Abbott]

the broken, on 09 April 2026 - 12:28 AM, said:

I mean, of course they were looking for the exits, that's a given. That's why the crazy threats were done in the first place. The negotiations were happening long before then, even though Iran was denying it.

Lots of people seem to decide to fervently believe both 'he's about to use nukes' and 'TACO' at the same time.



Anyone know where we can get an organisation chart or something about who the surviving key figures in Iran are? If the hardline militants were in control and all they wanted was revenge, then they couldn't have agreed to a ceasefire in the first place.

Because with Diddler Donnie, anything is possible. Random acts of violence, political threats, you name it. Dementia has made the man very unpredictable. The negotiations were happening, and then he ordered the attack. If the 25th isn't going to get invoked then honestly, the menmintbros need to find themselves a small, mossy tumulus, and not a moment to osoon.

The only winner in this is Iran because they now have a firm grim on the Strait, and are charging vessels passage to go through it. America got slapped and lost a significant level of standing globally, whilst also pissing off most of Europe in doing so.

[QuickTidal]

Abyss, on 08 April 2026 - 06:02 PM, said:

wanna bet they declare that they're attacking Hezbollah, not Lebanon?

Oh almost certainly. How else is Netanyahu and his crew meant to do land conquest if they don't claim that they are attacking terrorists or that the pope is an anti-semite?

Grief, on 08 April 2026 - 10:44 PM, said:

Israel, having played an instrumental role in starting the war, seems transparently set on avoiding de-escalation. Might Israel have finally overplayed their hand with the US?

Most people under a certain age who have witnessed what's occurred in the West Bank and Gaza had their eyes opened years ago. Unfailing US support of Israel (as long as people like Netanyahu are in charge) is not something that's going to outlast the Boomer generation I don't think, Millennials and forwards (Gen z especially) know exactly what the successive regimes since Sharon have done, never mind the sheer BUCKETS of money that the US sends them every year. You have a whole generation who have become politically aware enough to ask "Why do we send BILLIONS to a small country in the middle east, but we don't have health care or decent infrastructure, or school lunches, or education?"...when those generations become the defacto voters, shit will change and Israel is going to be forced to adapt and stop electing war criminals, join the global table on nuclear agreements, ect.

I say this as my nephew and niece (17 and 14 respectively) who I was just on vacation with were BOTH very well educated on the subject and took a decidedly anti-Netanyahu stance when the subject came up. I was certainly not as politically aware at their age. Grassroots Gaza was broadcast to everyone moreso than any conflict before.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

The deadliest 10 minutes in decades: Lebanese reel from Israeli strikes that killed hundreds

The Israeli military dubbed [their bombing campaign in Lebanon] "Operation Eternal Darkness".

But residents and Lebanese officials said the strikes, which used 1,000lb bombs in densely packed residential areas of Beirut, mainly killed civilians. Lebanon's prime minister, Nawaf Salam, accused Israel in a statement of targeting "densely populated residential neighbourhoods" and killing unarmed civilians in breach of international law.

The deadliest 10 minutes in decades: Lebanese reel from Israeli strikes that killed hundreds | Lebanon | The Guardian

So Israel responded to the two-week ceasefire agreement with... "Operation Eternal Darkness".

And mass murder of civilians.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 09 April 2026 - 02:30 PM

[QuickTidal]

Azath Vitr (D, on 09 April 2026 - 02:30 PM, said:

Quote

The deadliest 10 minutes in decades: Lebanese reel from Israeli strikes that killed hundreds

The Israeli military dubbed [their bombing campaign in Lebanon] "Operation Eternal Darkness".

But residents and Lebanese officials said the strikes, which used 1,000lb bombs in densely packed residential areas of Beirut, mainly killed civilians. Lebanon's prime minister, Nawaf Salam, accused Israel in a statement of targeting "densely populated residential neighbourhoods" and killing unarmed civilians in breach of international law.

The deadliest 10 minutes in decades: Lebanese reel from Israeli strikes that killed hundreds | Lebanon | The Guardian

So Israel responded to the two-week ceasefire agreement with... "Operation Eternal Darkness".

And mass murder of civilians.

The depravity of the State of Israel is unhinged. Netanyahu, Ben-Gvir and the rest of that cabinet need to be brought to The Hague, tried, and sentenced.

[Abyss]

Maark Abbott, on 09 April 2026 - 06:38 AM, said:

... If the 25th isn't going to get invoked ...

Vance in the POTUS seat is a debatable benefit.

[QuickTidal]

Abyss, on 09 April 2026 - 03:21 PM, said:

Maark Abbott, on 09 April 2026 - 06:38 AM, said:

... If the 25th isn't going to get invoked ...

Vance in the POTUS seat is a debatable benefit.

While the 25th is not going to happen cause he's surrounded himself with sycophants this time...Vance, as a creature of tech vampire Peter Thiel, would cease all the war shit, and the tariffs shit, and all the little in-the-public-eye shitheads like Miller and Hegseth would be gone, and the ranks would close around just doing Project 2025 stuff that allows the Tech Feudal Oligarchy to rise.

So better for the world in the short term? Probably. Still terrible for America, yes just in different ways. Terrible for the world in the long term? I Dunno, probably?

[Grief]

I don't see it happening any time soon but he has three years to go. If he keeps declining but doesn't actually die then I don't think the 25th is totally beyond the realm of possibility.

I am very morbidly curious about the Trump succession question. People often think he is the one person somehow holding all these disparate factions into a movement. But that's not really been put to the test. The other side of the argument being that these are longstanding structural forces in America that have been looking for an outlet. It's possible that it will dissipate into chaos without Trump but also possible it will outlast him and settle on a new lightning rod easily enough.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Netanyahu's corruption trial had been suspended because of the war with Iran, but it's currently set to resume on Sunday:

https://www.reuters....day-2026-04-09/

Netanyahu corruption trial to resume as Israel lifts war emergency

Strangely I didn't see this mentioned in the live Middle East updates by the New York Times, and a quick "find on page" and Google search for NYT articles on it also turned up nothing. Read about it in the South China Morning Post.

So if Netanyahu can get the war with Iran to restart...

OTOH here's what the NYT has reported:

Quote

Natan Sachs, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, said [...] there were limits to how much Mr. Netanyahu is willing to test Mr. Trump's patience. The American president is very popular in Israel, making Mr. Netanyahu's partnership with Mr. Trump his chief political asset at home as Israel prepares for national elections this year.

"Nothing looms larger in his mind than Trump," Mr. Sachs said of Mr. Netanyahu. Whereas Mr. Netanyahu paid little price at home for brushing off demands from [...] Biden [...] who was not popular among Israelis, the dynamic has flipped, particularly among Mr. Netanyahu's most conservative supporters.

"'Trump asked me to do this' is a valid excuse with his right flank," Mr. Sachs said.

https://www.nytimes....?smid=url-share

Fwiw I asked Gemini (AI) whether the Netanyahu regime's "Operation Eternal Darkness" sounds any less evil in Hebrew. It claims that the Hebrew word for "darkness" there is redolent of one of the Passover plagues, the plague of darkness. Of course, Netanyahu is fluent in English, having gone to highschool and college in the United States, and certainly knows what "Operation Eternal Darkness" suggests in English.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 09 April 2026 - 10:14 PM

[Abyss]

Azath Vitr (D, on 09 April 2026 - 10:07 PM, said:

Fwiw I asked Gemini (AI) whether the Netanyahu regime's "Operation Eternal Darkness" sounds any less evil in Hebrew. It claims that the Hebrew word for "darkness" there is redolent of one of the Passover plagues, the plague of darkness. Of course, Netanyahu is fluent in English, having gone to highschool and college in the United States, and certainly knows what "Operation Eternal Darkness" suggests in English.

somehow i suspect 'Operation Ninth Plague' would not have been wildly better received.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Early this morning, before going to bed, Trump posted a brilliant new plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz:

... a naval blockade!

Truth Details | Truth Social

Just like he tried to lower prices using tariffs...

Granted, in the long run this could actually work. But since the Strait of Hormuz has effectively remained closed during the ceasefire, and a closure of more than two months is predicted to have dire economic consequences... the Iranian military would have plenty of time to wait it out and do massive damage to most of the world (and US) economy.

OTOH:

Quote

one of the world's shrewdest and most respected analysts of geopolitics and energy, Cambridge University political economy professor Helen Thompson[...] has argued that [...] closure of the Strait of Hormuz - may not be a bug of the war at all, but a deliberate feature.

Professor Thompson argues that driving up the worldwide price of oil and keeping it there may be a core war goal of the Trump administration. That hurts China, which depends on imported energy, and helps America, which is a net energy producer. And if that's the case, then Iranian control over the xtrait would, ironically, be a desirable outcome.

"The Trump administration thinks through the lens of resource competition," [...] That, says Thompson, is the consistent "thread" through the second Trump administration's foreign policy - including the intervention in oil-rich Venezuela and its attempts to destabilize resource-rich Greenland. It is also[...] part of the geopolitical blueprint that the administration laid out last fall.

America[...] may be a "beneficiary" of the war economically because it will be able to sell more liquefied natural gas at elevated prices, especially to the Europeans.

She adds that right now, competitive thinking between the U.S. and China focuses on artificial intelligence, which uses a staggering amount of energy. Driving up China's energy costs hurts its AI ambitions.

[...] after initially floating the notion of stepping in and providing insurance to ships through the U.S. government, the Trump administration soon walked away from the idea. That would be consistent with the theory that the administration does not want fuel to flow freely through the strait[...]

And the parts of America that actually benefit from expensive oil - such as the energy companies and the oil-producing regions of the South, West and Midwest - are typically MAGA country.

What if Trump actually wanted this outcome in Hormuz all along? | Morningstar

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

I see he's announced that the naval blockade is actually going into effect now:

Quote

Effective immediately, the United States Navy, the Finest in the World, will begin the process of BLOCKADING any and all Ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz. At some point, we will reach an “ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO IN, ALL BEING ALLOWED TO GO OUT” basis, but Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, “There may be a mine out there somewhere,” that nobody knows about but them. THIS IS WORLD EXTORTION, and Leaders of Countries, especially the United States of America, will never be extorted. I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran. No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas. We will also begin destroying the mines the Iranians laid in the Straits. Any Iranian who fires at us, or at peaceful vessels, will be BLOWN TO HELL!

Truth Details | Truth Social

[the broken]

Iran doing most of the work, probably the move that takes the least effort

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

the broken, on 12 April 2026 - 02:05 PM, said:

Iran doing most of the work, probably the move that takes the least effort

Except for this part:

Quote

I have also instructed our Navy to seek and interdict every vessel in International Waters that has paid a toll to Iran.

He seems to have ordered the Navy to hunt down and seize any vessel that has paid a toll to Iran---including before this announcement.

Piracy.

Or perhaps just a vaguely worded post... guess we'll see.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 12 April 2026 - 02:31 PM

[Grief]

I don't see a blockade being very decisive, the Iranian regime has survived worse, though it's hard to ever know what might be the final straw.

The US couldn't risk the possibility that Iran could dictate who got through the Strait. It feels like they're making this move from necessity more than anything. Blockading it doubles down on making the war into everyone else's problem without any clear solution in sight. The Trump administration seems to be stuck continuing to escalate by default and hoping will solve the problem, but it has not done the trick so far. That's a path which could get the US really bogged down in the region.

It will be very interesting to see if anyone decides to test the blockade.

Meanwhile, the US is on a May deadline for the War Powers Resolution. Congress hasn't shown any interest in checking the President to date but the war is unpopular and mid-terms are looming, so you have to wonder if some Republicans might break ranks over it. It wouldn't take many.

I tend not to read too much into analysis - like Professor Thompson's above - that slathers the US administration with this deep strategic brush that typically doesn't stand up to what you can see with your own eyes. It's a kind of sane-washing that I've found is very common in political science circles where people want or get paid to have smart things to say.

Was the closure of the Strait a strategic feature a few days back when they were demanding it's re-opening? Is tanking their domestic and international popularity part of the strategy? What about the major negative consequences for America's own data centre ambitions?

Or can we just admit that the obvious answer - that the war has been poorly thought out and that they didn't expect the Iranian regime to resist this effectively - is probably the correct one. You know, the interpretation that's also backed up by various insiders leaks and what you can easily enough see from the administration's own behaviour.

(Not aimed at you by the way Azath, I just find these overly sensible political commentaries funny).