[Garak]

Isn't the UAE a monarchy? Which the revolutionary Iran would by default dislike?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Reuters, Barrons, and the New York Times are now referring to Project Freedom as an "escort" operation, but I haven't found any explicit confirmation of a switch from "guidance" to "escort" from Hegseth or the military. (Trump initially used them interchangeably in a Truth Social post, but the military explicitly clarified that they were only providing guidance and support from a distance rather than traveling along with vessels as nearby "escorts". The latter would provide better cover but be more dangerous and more likely to escalate.)

The two commercial vessels that made it out of the Strait yesterday as part of "Project Freedom" are still the only ones so far. But ships have been moving... away from the exit:

Quote

Hundreds of ships were seen clustering near Dubai as more vessels moved away from the still-empty waterway in response to Iran's efforts to widen its area of control.

Oil Prices Settle as Iran Truce Remains in Focus - Bloomberg

Seems like "Project Freedom" has been a whopping flop so far.

[Cause]

Garak, on 05 May 2026 - 01:25 PM, said:

Isn't the UAE a monarchy? Which the revolutionary Iran would by default dislike?

Its the united Arab Emirates, each led by an Emir. I thin the western equivalent would be a confederation of principalities that joined together for better economics and defense. So essentially a monarchy, yes.

I read something once that sais the UAE warned that if was replaced with a more democratic system the muslim brotherhood woul win the elections. So not sure how true that was but perhaps that means the current leaders are more pro west or at least west tolerant than the average citizen.

This post has been edited by Cause: 05 May 2026 - 04:07 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 04 May 2026 - 06:29 PM, said:

Why is the UAE in particular getting so much targeting from Iran. Or maybe it just seems that way but the UAE in particular seems pissed at Iran and reacting the most.

From March 10th:

Quote

Why Iran is targeting UAE more than other Gulf states in war with US and Israel

[...] Iran is trying to disrupt international commerce by targeting the UAE — a global business hub.

"The disruption to international commerce, supply routes and travel is deliberate[...]

"By striking at Dubai, Iran is extracting a global cost [...] they are betting that [...] the US and Israel will come under more pressure to find an off-ramp."

[...] It is also home to key [US] military bases.

The UAE Air Force shares Al Dhafra Air Base, south of the capital Abu Dhabi, with the US Air Force.

[...] the US used the Al Dhafra airfield to support strikes on Iran in June.

[...] "The proximity to southern Iran makes the UAE a likely target because you've got overflight if [they] want to hit anyone else,"

https://www.abc.net....l-war/106436816

They're closer than Saudi Arabia, and more pro-US than Iraq or Oman.

It also doesn't help that, unlike Saudi Arabia, they've normalized relations with Israel.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

... and Project Freedom has been suspended (well that's Trump's real project anyway, isn't it... freedom suspended for all except Him, and his cronies if they don't get in the way of his whims).

Quote

Trump announced on Tuesday evening that the United States was pausing "for a short period of time" the mission he initiated on Monday to help guide ships through the Strait of Hormuz. [...] Trump said that the move to pause [...] was "based on the [...] tremendous military success" and "great progress" toward an agreement.

https://www.nytimes....?smid=url-share

lol

They only managed to get three ships out total.

OTOH Iran seems to be indicating they might start allowing ships through if they pay a toll:

Quote

Iran announced a new mechanism to oversee maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz [...] Iranian state news reported [...] Under the new system, ships seeking to cross through the strait will receive an email laying out transit regulations from the "Persian Gulf Strait Authority." The ships must adhere to the regulations and obtain a transit permit before crossing [...]

Press TV reported that the mechanism was "now operational in the Strait of Hormuz."

https://www.nytimes....?smid=url-share

Trump had previously said that any ships paying what he called "an illegal toll" to Iran would not be allowed through, but he might compromise and allow them through the blockade. ... or not, because that would mean more money for Iran---and less for Putin &co...


[Edit: already corrected above---it turns out they actually got more than two ships out total... the two from yesterday, and then today... a whopping one more:

Quote

[Trump's] announcement [of the "pause"], in a social media post, came only hours after Secretary of State Marco Rubio asserted that the United States had concluded combat operations against Iran and was fully focused on the new mission. Only three commercial ships have managed to make it through the strait since the United States began the operation, dubbed Project Freedom, on Monday.


https://www.nytimes....?smid=url-share

]

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 06 May 2026 - 02:23 AM

[Abyss]

yet another Taco Tuesday.

[Cause]

Absolutely no way to spin this as anything but a loss of a face.

I wonder if it was to pause an operation that wasn’t working and which would look equally weak or if they realize they are in jeopardy legally speaking of having to get congressional approval to renew the war.

If fighting starts again I look forward to the argument that it’s the start of a new 60 days presidential war power conflict and not the continuation of the last one.


I wouldn’t say legal jeapardy, the gop would ultimate approve but the hearings and having to finally explain the war may be too difficult for them and create even worse optics than what they already have.

[Abyss]

My underinformed bet would be that multiple navy and intelligence and lawyers and assorted other people pointed out what a stupid and near certainty of failure PR disaster his purported plan was.

They could put a wall of navy ships and subs and planes around every ship trying to get across the Strait, with associated $$$, and either American soldiers die protecting foreign oil, or foreign citizens die while under US 'protection. Lose/lose/lose for everyone except possibly Iran.

[Macros]

Exactly, Iran only has to get lucky once

[Abyss]

Macros, on 06 May 2026 - 08:05 PM, said:

Exactly, Iran only has to get lucky once

Yep, and barely even that. Do $5mil damage to a US destroyer to protect $5mil in Saudi oil and see how well that flies in Congress.

[QuickTidal]

Abyss, on 07 May 2026 - 01:28 PM, said:

Macros, on 06 May 2026 - 08:05 PM, said:

Exactly, Iran only has to get lucky once

Yep, and barely even that. Do $5mil damage to a US destroyer to protect $5mil in Saudi oil and see how well that flies in Congress.

I dunno, Trump has been saying since like September that no tax money would be needed for the Ballroom, and now he's asking congress for $1billion in tax money for it and they are defending it...

Sidebar: Nike sent out a poll to its email subscriber list asking "if they contributed to the ballroom would that anger them and how much would it anger them"...so you know...corporate shit licking of the orange turd in chief...not buying Nike shit for a long time...

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 07 May 2026 - 01:59 PM, said:

Quote

Yep, and barely even that. Do $5mil damage to a US destroyer to protect $5mil in Saudi oil and see how well that flies in Congress.

I dunno, Trump has been saying since like September that no tax money would be needed for the Ballroom, and now he's asking congress for $1billion in tax money for it and they are defending it...

Sidebar: Nike sent out a poll to its email subscriber list asking "if they contributed to the ballroom would that anger them and how much would it anger them"...so you know...corporate shit licking of the orange turd in chief...not buying Nike shit for a long time...

Yes, and consider all the money that was being wasted on those interceptor missiles that could have been replaced by cheap Ukrainian drones... the US military wastes ridiculous amounts of money, and Congress votes for more of it because they paid off by the manufacturers. Most Americans don't think about it.

They had two destroyers pass through the Strait into the Arabian Sea through Iranian fire. But the US military most likely didn't have enough of the right types of ships available to do effective and efficient naval escorts. And even if they did, the independent expert analysis I cited earlier said that in the best case scenario (which this almost certainly wouldn't be) they'd only be getting 10 ships through per day. That's about the same number of ships that Iran was letting through before the US blockade.

However it turns out that some UAE ships have been sneaking through:

Quote

With their location trackers shut off to avoid Iranian attacks, the United Arab Emirates and buyers have recently sailed several tankers loaded with crude through the Strait of Hormuz in a bid to move oil bottled up in the Gulf by the Middle East conflict, according to industry sources ‌and shipping data.

The volumes are a fraction of the UAE's typical exports before the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran but they demonstrate the risks the producer and buyers are willing to take ‌to free up oil sales. The other Gulf producers - Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar - have either halted sales, deeply cut prices to entice uninterested buyers or are shipping only through the Red Sea in the case of Saudi Arabia.

Exclusive-Hungry to sell, UAE slips hidden oil tankers through Strait of Hormuz

... Iran was probably aware of this, and it probably gave them another reason to target the UAE.

And the other major US ally in the Gulf, Saudi Arabia, was reportedly pressuring Trump to stop Project Freedom:

Quote

Trump angered key Gulf allies by announcing "Project Freedom" in the first place [...] Saudi Arabia informed the U.S. that it would not allow the U.S. military to fly aircraft from Prince Sultan Airbase southeast of Riyadh, the officials said. The U.S. would also be unable to fly through Saudi airspace to support efforts to open the Strait.

After a call between Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman failed to address the issue, the president abruptly halted "Project Freedom" to restore critical U.S. military access to the airspace, according to the officials.

Stunning Reason for Trump War Plan Reversal Exposed - The Daily Beast

[QuickTidal]

I'm amused that Trump and co think that all their need to do is show military ships "getting through" to be like "see? We can escort you, it's fine"....

The reality is that shipping companies will NOT be insured to do it....no matter the "protection" offered. It's WAYYYYY too much of a risk. Unless Iran and the US (and Israel) stop fighting and things go back to some semblance of what they were before all this, those commercial vessels WILL NOT go through.

But Trump is aware of how stupid a lot of Americans are so they buy his BS.

[Cause]

Tha Nike survey can’t be real? It tips there hand, already acknowledges the donation would be problematic and simply is asking how problematic. If they were to do such a survey it would be private focus groups and more circumspect surely.

[QuickTidal]

Cause, on 07 May 2026 - 05:46 PM, said:

Tha Nike survey can’t be real? It tips there hand, already acknowledges the donation would be problematic and simply is asking how problematic. If they were to do such a survey it would be private focus groups and more circumspect surely.

Sure, grain of salt for now, but a lot of other companies are publicly gobbling Trumps knob, why not Nike?

[Cause]

QuickTidal, on 07 May 2026 - 05:50 PM, said:

Cause, on 07 May 2026 - 05:46 PM, said:

Tha Nike survey can’t be real? It tips there hand, already acknowledges the donation would be problematic and simply is asking how problematic. If they were to do such a survey it would be private focus groups and more circumspect surely.

Sure, grain of salt for now, but a lot of other companies are publicly gobbling Trumps knob, why not Nike?

Don't mistake me, I wont be surprised if the thing ends up called the Nike Ballroom and has a wall of logos with Logo size determined by if you were a Platinum, Gold, Silver or Bronze donor. It would complete the Trump slide into ideocracy. I just think the survey seems odd.

________________________

Not sure if true but I heard the final oil tanker that left the strait docked and unloaded its oil at an american terminal. If thats true it means the supply is now truly cut and even if the strait opens supply will take a month to reach anywhere near normal levels again. Last I saw the average gas price was 4.50 which is a 50% increase from the 3 dollars before the war started. If it goes up from there even further...

Trump will start trying to write executive orders that oil cant be sold overseas or some such to keep prices down and I suspect like everything he does it will be badly mishandled.

[Mentalist]

 QuickTidal, on 07 May 2026 - 03:00 PM, said:

I'm amused that Trump and co think that all their need to do is show military ships "getting through" to be like "see? We can escort you, it's fine"....

The reality is that shipping companies will NOT be insured to do it....no matter the "protection" offered. It's WAYYYYY too much of a risk. Unless Iran and the US (and Israel) stop fighting and things go back to some semblance of what they were before all this, those commercial vessels WILL NOT go through.

But Trump is aware of how stupid a lot of Americans are so they buy his BS.

Unless Iran says "we will not be targeting any cargo ships going through the Strait", I don't expect any sensible insurer to issue a policy to any ship in the area.

And I think everyone but the toddler-in-chief understands this.

[Abyss]

Mentalist, on 07 May 2026 - 09:54 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 07 May 2026 - 03:00 PM, said:

I'm amused that Trump and co think that all their need to do is show military ships "getting through" to be like "see? We can escort you, it's fine"....

The reality is that shipping companies will NOT be insured to do it....no matter the "protection" offered. It's WAYYYYY too much of a risk. Unless Iran and the US (and Israel) stop fighting and things go back to some semblance of what they were before all this, those commercial vessels WILL NOT go through.

But Trump is aware of how stupid a lot of Americans are so they buy his BS.

Unless Iran says "we will not be targeting any cargo ships going through the Strait", I don't expect any sensible insurer to issue a policy to any ship in the area.

And I think everyone but the toddler-in-chief understands this.

if Iran were feeling clever they would announce free and safe passage for anyone NOT escorted by US ships.