[the broken]

There's not really a winning move. You can't make them submit by making the population suffer, because the leadership doesn't care about that. All they can do keep killing the leaders until they find someone who surrenders.

[Garak]

The winning move was not to start this silliness.

[Cause]

I don’t really get this. The toll is bad from the USA point of view because it enriches Iran, it’s also perhaps bad for the world because if Iran can toll Hormuz then Morocco, Spain or the Uk can toll Gibraltar. The Houthis can toll the Red Sea etc. Iran also can’t defend Hormuz either, so Oman can also demand a toll cut or also threaten to blow up the ships. And if Oman can, so can Qatar, so can the UAE.

However put a pin in that. Oil is oil and money is money. It’s completely fungible. So it doesn’t matter if the oil through Hormuz goes to India and china. It provides supply to the global market either way which reduces demand which puts global prices back to normal.

I have low optimism that Trump and Hegseth know what they are doing. Seems both sides are being emotional rather than rational actors. There has to be a way a solution that lets both sidee save face but I guess right now they both want the other side to look stupid. Trump needs a way out politically to stop the bleeding in the polls but Iran needs to stop the actual bleeding

Edit: I realize that saying I have low optimism didn’t quite carry the meaning and sarcasm I intended. I am certain they have no idea what they are doing. Almost like reality tv and Fox News anchor are not valid credentials to lead a war.

This post has been edited by Cause: 13 April 2026 - 02:43 PM

[Maark Abbott]

Garak, on 12 April 2026 - 09:46 PM, said:

The winning move was not to start this silliness.

It really is this simple.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

In response to the US blockade,

Quote

Iran said it would target all ports in and close to the Persian Gulf [...] Iran is ready to restart attacks on ports in Arab Gulf states — if the US follows through on a pledge to block all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian hubs from 10 a.m. New York time on Monday.

Iran Sends Gulf Port Warning After US Threat to Block Hormuz

So the war might be back on today... the blockade is set to start in about 17 minutes.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 13 April 2026 - 01:32 PM

[the broken]

Maark Abbott, on 13 April 2026 - 07:45 AM, said:

Garak, on 12 April 2026 - 09:46 PM, said:

The winning move was not to start this silliness.

It really is this simple.

That would have been helpful a few months ago, but now that it is started, what's next?

[Abyss]

So the US response to the Iranian blockade, is to blockade the blockade.

I feel like i'm watching a 1980s satire.

[QuickTidal]

Abyss, on 13 April 2026 - 02:06 PM, said:

So the US response to the Iranian blockade, is to blockade the blockade.

I feel like i'm watching a 1980s satire.

All it needs it Yakety Sax and Benny Hill running about.

[Abyss]

QuickTidal, on 13 April 2026 - 02:07 PM, said:

Abyss, on 13 April 2026 - 02:06 PM, said:

So the US response to the Iranian blockade, is to blockade the blockade.

I feel like i'm watching a 1980s satire.

All it needs it Yakety Sax and Benny Hill running about.

now we need a really blustery Iranian spokesperson proudly declaring their blockade of the american blockade! trumpler would lose his shit.

[Grief]

the broken, on 13 April 2026 - 01:48 PM, said:

Maark Abbott, on 13 April 2026 - 07:45 AM, said:

Garak, on 12 April 2026 - 09:46 PM, said:

The winning move was not to start this silliness.

It really is this simple.

That would have been helpful a few months ago, but now that it is started, what's next?

Options basically look like some variation on
1. give it up and leave
2. commit to toppling the regime

More economic pressure and more bombing might unexpectedly pull out a result but the odds aren't looking good. It's not proven very effective historically either. I suspect we'll be on again off again until the US' May deadline where new conditions could create some exit ramp.

[Maark Abbott]

the broken, on 13 April 2026 - 01:48 PM, said:

Maark Abbott, on 13 April 2026 - 07:45 AM, said:

Garak, on 12 April 2026 - 09:46 PM, said:

The winning move was not to start this silliness.

It really is this simple.

That would have been helpful a few months ago, but now that it is started, what's next?

Remove orange nonce. Place orange nonce and his entire admin into jail.

Whoever comes next proceeds to turbo dogeza to every single country wronged by the collective aneurysm of a nation in electing the orange nonce. Reparations to Iran for an unprovoked war of aggression. Fiscal recompense of a lesser extent to other nations impacted by the attack.

[Cause]

The USA will never pay reparations. It just won’t happen. Would be more unpopular than the war.

This war is also monumentally stupid and shows a lack of preparation and a worse lack of foresight and was by all indications unnecessary. Iran and the USA have been hostile for decades. It’s a war of choice but not unprovoked.

I wonder if we will see a palace civil war between Vance and Trump soon. Rumours have been growing for a while that Trump isn’t happy with Vance, Rubio keeps getting more attention but if Vance is forced to choose between resigning or trying to imitate the 25th amendment I wonder what might happen. This could just be insane paranoia on my part though.

This post has been edited by Cause: 14 April 2026 - 11:17 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 14 April 2026 - 11:13 PM, said:

The USA will never pay reparations. It just won't happen. Would be more unpopular than the war.

This war is also monumentally stupid and shows a lack of preparation and a worse lack of foresight and was by all indications unnecessary. Iran and the USA have been hostile for decades. It's a war of choice but not unprovoked.

I wonder if we will see a palace civil war between Vance and Trump soon. Rumours have been growing for a while that Trump isn't happy with Vance, Rubio keeps getting more attention but if Vance is forced to choose between resigning or trying to imitate the 25th amendment I wonder what might happen. This could just be insane paranoia on my part though.

Trump will definitely never call them "reparations".

But "money for rebuilding Iran"? He's repeatedly indicated that he's willing to help rebuild Iran. Though he may be thinking more along the lines of "Iran paying US companies that are paying Trump (or belong to him---Trump Tower Tehran? Missile City Trump Towers?)..."

If Trump's desperate enough he'll pay them off and bullsh*t about it being "helping them rebuild".

Wonder if the negotiations went anything like this:

"You can charge a 2 million dollar toll per ship... but only if Trump gets to do it too.

What? Why should Trump get to charge a toll?

Because!

Because what?

Because He has the mightiest military!

That's ridiculous, no.

Well then because He can blockade the Strait too!"

According to one analysis I saw cited, 2 million USD per ship only amounts to about 1 USD more per barrel of crude. So of course Trump wants to add his own toll on top of that...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 15 April 2026 - 01:24 AM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Operational command for Iran's armed forces threatening to close the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea (presumably with the aid of the Houthis) if the blockade continues (... the US blockade, that is...).

https://www.nytimes....?smid=url-share

Trump went on Fox Business and claimed that it's "close to over"... but he might carry through on his threat to destroy "every one" of their bridges and power plants.

https://www.nytimes....?smid=url-share

[QuickTidal]

Cause, on 14 April 2026 - 11:13 PM, said:

Iran and the USA have been hostile for decades. It’s a war of choice butnot unprovoked.

Sorry, WHAT?

Please illustrate where in the recent history of Iran (not even going into the fact that the US started this by unseating Mossadegh decades ago to install an amenable-to-the-USA king) that Iran has provoked the USA? Was it when Obama got them sign onto the global oversight on nuclear material? Or was it when the at deal was torn up by Trump (because it was an Obama success) and they STILL came to the table to negotiate about it? Or was it when the US went in and unceremoniously bombed their nuclear-study sites (read: not weapons) in the summer and they STILL came to the table to negotiate after being unceremoniously attacked? Or was it when Jared Kushner and his buddy (being dumb fucks and not understanding words) thought that when Iran offered to giver the US all its existing fissionable material to them, it meant they were threatening them (even thought all the translators in the room understood they were offering to be open and honest about what they had) and were attacked mid-negotiation as a result? Or was it when Netanyahu and his predecessors told Reagan/BushSr/Clinton/BushJr/Obama/Biden, and finally Trump... over the last nearly 50 Years that Iran was "two weeks away from a Nuclear weapon" and Trump believed him?

Which of these things shows Iran as the provoker?

[amphibian]

I think it's an oblique reference to the funding of IEDs in the Iraq occupation and the anti Israel activities in Lebanon and Syria (prior to Assad regime collapsing).

[QuickTidal]

amphibian, on 15 April 2026 - 01:07 PM, said:

I think it's an oblique reference to the funding of IEDs in the Iraq occupation and the anti Israel activities in Lebanon and Syria (prior to Assad regime collapsing).

Probably, but doesn't Cause keep trying try to tell us that the US is not affected by Israel-the-state's demands?

And pretending that somehow Iraq was not also a US-boondoggle based on proven lies that Iraqi's were not and are not happy about as if that was happening in a bubble and not you know...directly next door to Iran.

It's so wild to me to watch the US punch other nations or threaten them and then get all "But they hate us!"....yeah they hate you cause of hostile foreign policy, not for no reason.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 15 April 2026 - 01:33 PM

[amphibian]

I don't think Cause is saying that or that I'm saying that Iraq (and Afghanistan) were anything other than poorly considered disasters.

The current American leadership and a good chunk of the military hold very real grudges against Iran for these specific things and when the current leaders of the Israeli government do what they did, it becomes an easier "Yes" for the Americans to do what they do precisely because of that somewhat recent history.

[Abyss]

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has been actively funding terrorist orgs for decades, well before their last round of killing protestors. This is bad vs worse.

[amphibian]

I'm also not saying that these grudges are good or anything other than being motivating factors that lead to where we are.