[Tiste Simeon]

In the words of SOAD: Why don't presidents fight the war, why do we always send the poor?

Shame the drummer turned out to be MAGA.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

An airstrike hit the industrial facilities of the Tabriz Petrochemical Complex, two semiofficial news outlets said, sparking a fire at the site in northwestern Iran early Monday. The strike is the latest in a string of attacks on Iran's critical infrastructure that have hit power plants, a water reservoir, steel production and universities.

https://www.nytimes....?smid=url-share

And Iran retaliated:

Quote

A oil refinery in the northern Israeli city of Haifa was struck during an Iranian missile attack on Monday morning, according to Israel's fire and rescue service. [...] According to the fire and rescue service, falling shrapnel struck a large container containing fuel

https://www.nytimes....?smid=url-share

Wonder if that was shrapnel from an intercepted missile.

Markets may finally be starting to realize that the Iranian government is probably not going to let Trump chicken out:

Quote

Will the Ayatollahs Chicken Out Is the New TACO

Markets have entered into a WACO reality: Will the Ayatollahs Chicken Out? Traders are concluding that they almost certainly won't

https://www.bloomber...-now-about-waco

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

The stock market seem to be buying Trump's bullshit about negotiations going "extremely well" and his claim that the Iranian government has agreed to almost all of his 15 demands... he's also calling the Iranian government "very reasonable".

Trump claimed before that Iran let ships through as a "favor" and a "gift" to him, but those were all ships bound to places like China, India, and Pakistan that they were planning to let through anyway and had nothing to do with Trump.

Now he's claiming that Iran is going to let more ships through as a show of "respect" to him, when in actuality these are almost certainly more ships bound for China etc that they were already planning to let through. More obvious bullshitting on Trump's part to try to calm markets.

Iran's parliament is set to vote on a bill that would allow for shipping to Japan and South Korea as well, but they've been negotiating those agreements with Japan and South Korea, not with Trump.

Recent public comments by Blackwater founder Erik Prince seem more realistic:

Quote

Prince—who is described in MAGA circles as the "pre-eminent thinker on the military"—says he is "extremely concerned" about what might happen next. [...] "I don't share the optimism of the administration that there's going to be a peaceful stop to this," said Prince, who often acts as an unofficial adviser to Trump officials, with ties to the White House, the Pentagon, and the State Department.

"They will burn it down. And my real concern is that if they try to put boots on the ground and force the Strait of Hormuz, you will see imagery of burning American warships in the next couple of weeks. And I don't think people are really prepared for that.

"The U.S. military, for two years, tried to bomb the hell out of the Houthis and to open the Red Sea and the Bab-el-Mandeb, and it didn't work," he continued. Bab-el-Mandeb is another key shipping channel.

"And to think we're going to force that on the IRGC that's prepared for this moment for 46 years?" [...] Prince made the point that Iran had 31 military districts, all led by commanders with orders to continue waging war against America.

The only person that could countermand that order, he said, is the nation's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who "understands blood oath" and has vowed revenge after "we killed his father, his wife, his sister, and other family members."

Donald Trump Ally Erik Prince Predicts Total Disaster for U.S. if War Escalates - The Daily Beast

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 30 March 2026 - 01:55 PM

[QuickTidal]

UN guy Mohamed Safi apparently resigned so he could warn everyone that the UN is talking about what to do in the event that Israel or the US uses a Nuke on Tehran...the fact that this is even being discussed makes me sick to my stomach.

10million people live and work in Tehran.

And the scary thing is I have a DECENT gut feeling that even if the US or Israel did this, that no one would actually step in to stop them...like nothing would change. The Epstein files would not change things, and I don't know that a nuke killing tens of millions would either...I realize that's nihilistic, but the last decade has shown me that no one is stopping ANY of these fucking madmen from doing anything, so why should nuclear death and fallout be different...? We live in a captured world with a few utterly evil people running the show...

[Cause]

I can’t fathom a reality were anyone is seriously considering nukes. We can’t ever undiscovered the genie but we have so far surprisingly done a good job of putting it back in the bottle. Once that reality changes the world changes forever. It won’t be done when the homeland isn’t even threatened.

I can see why the WHO or UN might drill for it, it’s literally there job to do so. That doesn’t mean the likelihood has moved significant closer.

[amphibian]

I'm not putting nuclear warfare past this group of incompetent and evil people. That's an extremely grim thing to say and contemplate, yet just about every single norm and good thing that people think that they won't do - they blow right by and do the evil thing.

They are attacking what it means to be a citizen or lawful resident, put secret police out to beat, maim, and murder people, stealing money from agencies to fund the secret police and X number of other horrid things, cut foreign aid off which has probably killed tens of thousands already via neglect and disease - this will kill many more soon, deposed Maduro, are aggressing into Iran, talking about actions in Cuba, and more.

And the president is all over the place because he actually has dementia of some sort and is being run by various people who take turns doing evil things with scant regard to what not being evil is.

There are vital acts of resistance, organization, and opposition happening. There are places, people, and times of joy still. This is not hopeless, but putting an upper bound on how bad things can get is a futile act with this pack of scumbags.

This post has been edited by amphibian: 30 March 2026 - 07:21 PM

[QuickTidal]

Cause, on 30 March 2026 - 06:52 PM, said:

I can’t fathom a reality were anyone is seriously considering nukes. We can’t ever undiscovered the genie but we have so far surprisingly done a good job of putting it back in the bottle. Once that reality changes the world changes forever. It won’t be done when the homeland isn’t even threatened.

I can see why the WHO or UN might drill for it, it’s literally there job to do so. That doesn’t mean the likelihood has moved significant closer.

Trump literally said “why don’t we use them if we have them”


And no one can stop him if he does. No one. The rules are the SecDef has to make sure it’s Trump giving the order and that’s it…the only thing after tha which would stand in the way is a military commander ignoring orders.


I’ just saying it’s far more possible now than in the past. He’s that much of a POS.

And there are really no safeguards against him doing it…like the nuclear football is SURPRISINGLY devoid of any fences to a president deciding to use one. There was just not a president till now that acts like if he doesn’t get what he wants he will take the rest of us with him…actually it makes quite a bit of sense he’s on side with an evil fucking warmonger like Netanyahu.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 30 March 2026 - 10:13 PM

[QuickTidal]

Also Let’s not pretend that the more unstable of the two isn’t Israel…we have no idea what safeguards exist for them doing their option…becuase they refuse to admit to the global community what nukes they have and what safeguards are in place for a leader to use them or not use them…but let’s let them keep it a secret from the rest of us right? The genocidal regime in charge there clearly values human life don’t they?

[QuickTidal]

Seems like Trump is desperately seeking on offramp to this war he started (along with/at the behest of Israel)...and is close to calling it a "victory" and heading home....

They…spent billions of dollars, exhausted precious missile interceptor resources, murdered a bunch of innocent school children, triggered an environmental catastrophe where toxic black soot rained down on a huge city full of civilians, got some US service members killed, plunged the global economy into chaos…

Got 13 military bases bombed and put out of order with billions of material and planes and things like radar equipment destroyed, the missile stock for defense worldwide depleted by min. 80% and effectively ending the petro dollar system when he really pulls out now.

And what they got out of it was…a crucial energy shipping lane got closed off to us.

Is this was Art of the Deal was about?

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 31 March 2026 - 12:26 PM

[the broken]

11-year-old Alireza Jafari killed at checkpoint after IRGC recruitment call involving children.

What do they need children on checkpoints for? They can't have run out of adults already.

[Abyss]

QuickTidal, on 30 March 2026 - 10:28 PM, said:

Also Let's not pretend that the more unstable of the two isn't Israel…we have no idea what safeguards exist for them doing their option…becuase they refuse to admit to the global community what nukes they have and what safeguards are in place for a leader to use them or not use them…but let's let them keep it a secret from the rest of us right? The genocidal regime in charge there clearly values human life don't they?

Once upon a time, the rationale ran like this: Israel has nukes to keep other, Arab, countries who have nukes, from using them. It's mutually assured destruction on a slightly smaller scale than the US/USSR Cold War.... one of them fires a nuke at Israel - a tiny country that would in effect cease to exist at the first impact - Israel nukes all of them at the same time. I can ack the innate insanity of this along w the practical reality for the time it came into being (exactly how Israel got nukes in the first place is a long running espionage mystery that runs through everyone from the US to UK to USSR, from quiet delivery to complete theft, to the idea they dont and never did but have done a spectacular job of faking it). That was then... now... i wouldn't quite say all bets are off because nukes are still nukes and it appears that Israel and opposing countries still have them, but the true wild card is Trump... he nukes Iran, anyone else is likely to nuke Israel in response, and welcome to armageddon. Netanyahu may be a madman desperate to hang on to power but he's (probably) not suicidal on a national or personal level, whereas Trump has no such risk.

Fuck.

[QuickTidal]

Abyss, on 31 March 2026 - 01:46 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 30 March 2026 - 10:28 PM, said:

Also Let's not pretend that the more unstable of the two isn't Israel…we have no idea what safeguards exist for them doing their option…becuase they refuse to admit to the global community what nukes they have and what safeguards are in place for a leader to use them or not use them…but let's let them keep it a secret from the rest of us right? The genocidal regime in charge there clearly values human life don't they?

Once upon a time, the rationale ran like this: Israel has nukes to keep other, Arab, countries who have nukes, from using them. It's mutually assured destruction on a slightly smaller scale than the US/USSR Cold War.... one of them fires a nuke at Israel - a tiny country that would in effect cease to exist at the first impact - Israel nukes all of them at the same time. I can ack the innate insanity of this along w the practical reality for the time it came into being (exactly how Israel got nukes in the first place is a long running espionage mystery that runs through everyone from the US to UK to USSR, from quiet delivery to complete theft, to the idea they dont and never did but have done a spectacular job of faking it). That was then... now... i wouldn't quite say all bets are off because nukes are still nukes and it appears that Israel and opposing countries still have them, but the true wild card is Trump... he nukes Iran, anyone else is likely to nuke Israel in response, and welcome to armageddon. Netanyahu may be a madman desperate to hang on to power but he's (probably) not suicidal on a national or personal level, whereas Trump has no such risk.

Fuck.

See, I think nuking Iran has a different effect, Russia then nukes Ukraine, because the gloves come off "MAD". You know?

I dunno who would do it, but while I would put way more money on Trump using it becuase he asked why he couldn't in his first term cause he's a petulant evil asshole who would gleefully take the world down with him...but Netanyahu MUST know at this point that he's going to end his life as a war criminal either on the run or caught and imprisoned...which may make him just as likely to use one.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Abyss, on 31 March 2026 - 01:46 PM, said:

Once upon a time, the rationale ran like this: Israel has nukes to keep other, Arab, countries who have nukes, from using them. It's mutually assured destruction on a slightly smaller scale than the US/USSR Cold War.... one of them fires a nuke at Israel - a tiny country that would in effect cease to exist at the first impact - Israel nukes all of them at the same time. I can ack the innate insanity of this along w the practical reality for the time it came into being (exactly how Israel got nukes in the first place is a long running espionage mystery that runs through everyone from the US to UK to USSR, from quiet delivery to complete theft, to the idea they dont and never did but have done a spectacular job of faking it). That was then... now... i wouldn't quite say all bets are off because nukes are still nukes and it appears that Israel and opposing countries still have them, but the true wild card is Trump... he nukes Iran, anyone else is likely to nuke Israel in response, and welcome to armageddon. Netanyahu may be a madman desperate to hang on to power but he's (probably) not suicidal on a national or personal level, whereas Trump has no such risk.

Fuck.

What? There's no credible evidence of any Arab countries having nukes.

Perhaps you meant Muslim? The only Muslim-majority country with nuclear weapons is Pakistan. You might have seen social media posts circulating an Iranian commander's claim that Pakistan would nuke Israel in response to Israel nuking Iran. But that has been denied by the Pakistani government:

Quote

Will Pakistan nuke Israel? Islamabad denies Iranian commander's claim

The statement, which appeared to draw Pakistan into a hypothetical nuclear escalation, was quickly rejected by Islamabad. Pakistan emphasised that no such assurance had been given and reaffirmed the country's longstanding policy of strategic restraint.

General Mohsen Rezaei, a senior commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and a member of Iran's National Security Council, made the claim during a broadcast on Iranian state television. "Pakistan has told us that if Israel uses a nuclear bomb on Iran, then Pakistan will also attack Israel with a nuclear bomb," said Rezaei.

[...] Reacting quickly, Pakistan's Defence Minister Khawaja Asif denied that Islamabad had ever issued such a threat or made any nuclear assurance to Iran.

While dismissing the claim of nuclear retaliation, Pakistan has reiterated its political support for Iran in its standoff with Israel.

https://www.business...61600487_1.html

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 31 March 2026 - 02:29 PM

[Macros]

QuickTidal, on 31 March 2026 - 12:26 PM, said:

Seems like Trump is desperately seeking on offramp to this war he started (along with/at the behest of Israel)...and is close to calling it a "victory" and heading home....

They…spent billions of dollars, exhausted precious missile interceptor resources, murdered a bunch of innocent school children, triggered an environmental catastrophe where toxic black soot rained down on a huge city full of civilians, got some US service members killed, plunged the global economy into chaos…

Got 13 military bases bombed and put out of order with billions of material and planes and things like radar equipment destroyed, the missile stock for defense worldwide depleted by min. 80% and effectively ending the petro dollar system when he really pulls out now.

And what they got out of it was…a crucial energy shipping lane got closed off to us.

Is this was Art of the Deal was about?

Dont forget alienating most of your Allies!

Italy has now started shutting down access following Spain

[Abyss]

Azath Vitr (D, on 31 March 2026 - 02:29 PM, said:

...

What? There's no credible evidence of any Arab countries having nukes.

Perhaps you meant Muslim? The only Muslim-majority country with nuclear weapons is Pakistan....

'hostile countries' would have been a better framing, there were the various invasion attempts/wars, and there were suggestions/threats of countries developing the weapons or buying them or selling them to terrorist factions who were actively blowing things up at the time. In that context at that time the idea of Israel having nukes as a deterrent was less insane than it might seem now.

[QuickTidal]

I've never minded them having nukes if they have them, what I mind is the secrecy and the fact that they refused to join the global community's oversight through the IAEA on such things. To this day.

Everything we know about Israel's nuclear arsenal has been gotten by dragging it out of them through leaks and whatnot and even then it's not official, and never through diplomacy.

Sharon, Rabin, Netanyahu ect (57 years of secrecy in fact) have all just flatly told anyone who asks about it "No, we're not saying and no you can't go look"...and the USA who helps them conceal it....also roped Iran into the JCPOA (until trump petulantly turfed it)...to make sure the world knew what Iran were up to with it and that it had oversight.

I'm baffled that Israel is allowed to continue on like this. But again, I hope that the world disallows this after Netanyahu and his crew are out of office and Israel will be forced to come to the table and show and tell and have oversight. At least allow the IAEA in.

I've not heard any valid reasons why they should be entitled to secrecy when those things affect all of us.

[Abyss]

QuickTidal, on 31 March 2026 - 05:49 PM, said:

..., I hope that the world disallows this after Netanyahu and his crew are out of office and Israel will be forced to come to the table and show and tell and have oversight. At least allow the IAEA in.

I've not heard any valid reasons why they should be entitled to secrecy when those things affect all of us.

it's a good question, and the follow up is 'but what can anyone do about it'? As long as they refuse to disclose and allow access, there isn't much anyone is able to do unless by some miraculous reversal the US were to get behind the effort, and 'forced'... who are we kidding, what force? Sanctions? Of what, they produce most of what they need. Arms embargo? They'll buy it from someone else. Condemnation by the UN? Does anyone really want to see them laugh that hard. I'd be fascinated to see anything anyone might do that would actually have an impact.

[Cause]

The IAEI doesn’t do what you think it does. Its oversight is voluntary, its safeguard program against nuclear proliferation is voluntary. Countries with nuclear weapons do not have there weapons inspected by the IAEI. Many countries allow some nuclear power plants to be inspected and refuse access to others which are tied to military programs.

Israel is not a signatory to the non proliferation treaty. It does already have some agreements with IAEI in place and does allow some IAEI inspection and even has some civilian research reactors under the safeguard program. However Dimona in keeping with the nuclear ambiguity policy is off limits.

The ambiguity policy is for a couple reasons aswell. It could be a giant bluff but the consensus is they really do have nukes and I personally couldn’t say. The ambiguity actually undermines deterrence but it gives flexibility, Israel doesn’t have to announce what its nuclear weapons policy is, and everything people say is pure conjecture. It allows the USA to not say anything about nuclear proliferation but perhaps the most important piece is it allows the Middle East countries to not have to say anything either. It prevents an arms race in the Middle East and allowed the other countries to not have to declare their own red lines. Saudia Arabia is on the record that an Iranian bomb will mean a Saudi Bomb but they didn’t feel the need to say it about Israel.

Israel has normalized relations with Jordan and Egypt. It hasn’t with Lebanon and Syria. It hasn’t officially with Saudia Arabia but clearly relations have thawed. Israel sees this as progress. Lebanon disbanding Heszbollah would be seen as a giant victory. It’s nuclear policy Is not to counter other nukes but as a threat to counter total defeat. It’s more secure now than ever but was surrounded by hostile powers on every side for decades. If you don’t believe it, believe that Israel does, that they can win every war and change nothing but they can never afford to lose.

Also, If Israel has Nukes they have them for 60-65 years. They don’t use them in 1967 and they didn’t use them in 1973. The won’t use them in Iran today. It would cause Jews around the world to be lynched in the street. It would create a military and political disaster and Israel is no were as close to as threatened as it was in 1973.

[the broken]

How will the Iran War Reshape Arms Exports? - Missile Consumption, Emergency Sales & the Supply Gap

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

the broken, on 28 March 2026 - 05:12 PM, said:

What do we think Iranian stockpiles are like?

Update on this:

Quote

U.S. intelligence assessments suggest that roughly half of Iran's missile launchers remain intact and the country's arsenal still boasts thousands of one-way attack drones, directly contradicting the president's claims about the nation's firepower being significantly diminished.

The country also maintains a large number of missiles.

Three sources familiar with the intelligence confirmed its veracity to CNN, with one of the sources telling the outlet of Iran, "They are still very much poised to wreak absolute havoc throughout the entire region."

Donald Trump Humiliated by His Own Intel Experts' Verdict on Iran War

They hit a desalination plant and an oil refinery in Kuwait; the Iranian government claims it didn't target the desalination plant. (For any who don't already know, Iran and he Gulf states rely heavily on a small number of desalination plants for potable water, so the destruction of the desalination plants could be devastating for the people of the region.)

Iran war live: Water plant hit in Kuwait; Tehran attacks the Gulf, Israel | US-Israel war on Iran News | Al Jazeera

Meanwhile, the Trump and Netanyahu regimes have been blowing up Iranian civilian infrastructure:

Quote

An airstrike destroyed the Pasteur Institute of Iran, a renowned public health institution that produces and distributes vaccines, the Iranian government said. A spokesman for the Iranian health ministry called the attack a "direct assault on international health security."

A highway bridge connecting Tehran and the city of Karaj was also attacked[...] Iranian news media reported. Iran's state broadcaster said that a second strike hit the bridge as emergency workers were trying to rescue the injured.

A U.S. military official said that American forces were responsible for the attack, which came on the last day of the Iranian new year holiday, when Iranians traditionally celebrate by spending time outdoors. The U.S. official said the bridge was a planned military supply route for Iran's missile and drone forces, though Iranian news media said the bridge was not yet operational and was not being used by the military. Mr. Trump celebrated the bridge's destruction, vowing there was "much more to follow."

Strikes Hit Infrastructure Sites in Iran After Trump's Threat - The New York Times

Looks like we'll probably get Trump's annual spring-time "crashing of the stock market" around the end of April.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 03 April 2026 - 12:26 PM