[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

QuickTidal, on 19 March 2026 - 04:52 PM, said:

Israel (apparently against the wishes of the US) has struck the South Pars Gas Field in Iran...the largest gas field in the region..and Iran has retaliated against the rest of the Oil production facilities in the Middle East (somethignthey not only warned they would do if South Pars was attacked, but Trump was briefed on what would happen if this happened and how badly it would go before the war even started).

Iran will eliminate them with totality. Not just incapacitate and derail...but DESTROY.

Israel has literally doomed the Global energy community.

This is endgame. Poking that bear has fucked the Global energy sector forever.

Well done Netanyahu, you utter evil POS...you screwed over the whole world for your ambitions. History will remember you as the monster you are.

Quote

Hegseth[...] reiterated the claim from Donald Trump that the US president knew nothing about the attack on Iran's South Pars gasfield.

However, Reuters is reporting that Israel says its attack on the gas facilities was coordinated with the United States.

[...] The three Israeli officials, who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity, said that Israel was not surprised by Trump's comments.

Middle East crisis live: Israeli officials push back on US claim that Trump knew nothing about gasfield attack - The Guardian

I'm tempted to say that humanity shouldn't be using fossil fuels anyway---in the long-run, obviously, that's the way. We're going to get widespread fusion (or better) eventually.

But blowing up and burning large amounts of oil and natural gas would be a terrible contribution to climate change... with potentially very long-lasting consequences.

And the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is also drastically reducing the amount of aluminum (AKA aluminium) available for producing solar panels.

[QuickTidal]

Azath Vitr (D, on 19 March 2026 - 05:26 PM, said:

I'm tempted to say that humanity shouldn't be using fossil fuels anyway---in the long-run, obviously, that's the way. We're going to get widespread fusion (or better) eventually.

100%, but the way forward (as China has shown) is to use Fossil fuels ramped up for manufacturing the non-fossil fuel infrastructure so that when the switch happens it will be a gradual changeover that occurs over time to ease the flip.

If the Energy Sector is forced into non-fossil fuels in a matter of weeks as a result off war/destroyed resources....the global economy is in for the shock of it's life and things won't get better possibly in my lifetime. We would be in for DECADES of hurt to right ourselves.

We need to be weaned off fossil fuels, not shoved off.

Like Canada has a thing where we all have to be off ICE vehicles by 2050 and onto EVs as ICE vehicles will no longer be legal. That's less than 25 years away and we have not even BEGUN to really ramp up the infrastructure for EV's as the default mode of transport for cars, never mind transport trucks ect., in the GTA, never mind the parts of Canada that were much more northern or off grid.

WE need to get on that soon, but we've very much not even started yet. Like I can go to the cottage 3 hours north, and there are a few En-routes (our roadside gas/food stops on the 400-series highways) that have MAYBE 6-8 EV charging spaces...but that's like two of those stops in 3 hours of driving...and nothing north of Barrie...you get part of the way out of the main hub of Ontario in the GTA and you're fooked unless the place you're going has a connection for you.

No one is doing NEAR enough to make the switch seamless...

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

China's onshore stock market [...] is the best equity market to own in the world if the Iran conflict continues through the rest of the year, according to Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies.

[...] Wood's bullish case for China centers on the country's energy advantage. He pointed to China's decent supply of oil reserves and dramatic advances in renewable energy (RNRG), (RNWZ), (CLN) as key factors that give the nation "almost unlimited access to cheap power."

In contrast, the U.S. faces "major bottlenecks on electricity power generation."

https://seekingalpha...e-east-conflict

(The article incorrectly lists FXI, GXC, and MCHI as examples of ETFs focused on China's onshore stock market. They should have listed China A-shares ETFs like CNYA instead.)

Though a resulting global recession almost certainly wouldn't be good for China (or the Chinese onshore stock market) either...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 19 March 2026 - 06:42 PM

[Macros]

yeah and everyone crying that aiming for net zero in the UK is madness blah blah blah.
Where the fuck are you now that your heating oil has doubled and everything is about to go through the roof. The old white guys have unilaterally fucked us all.
Again.

And guess what, in the midst of this BP and hell are listing record profits
Again.

Fuck them all

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

US stocks cut losses on Thursday as oil prices trimmed gains in afternoon trading on hopes of a deescalation of the conflict in the Middle East. [...]

Brent futures dropped as much as 2% as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would help the US open the Strait of Hormuz and that the war would end faster than people think. The comments raised hopes of a deescalation of the conflict in the Middle East.

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq recover from steep losses as oil's surge eases

Oh ffs... is that really what they're going by? Ridiculous.

Granted, it's a better sign than Netanyahu saying nothing. But it's an extremely weak and untrustworthy signal. And Israeli participation in reopening the Strait of Hormuz might be better than nothing, particularly if they're eventually willing to devote significant numbers of troops to a ground occupation of a buffer zone around the coast... but Israeli airstrikes or naval vessels are unlikely to make much of a difference in reopening the Strait.

[Werthead]

The Chinese high-end reconnaissance vessel Liaoweng-1 has arrived off the coast of Oman with two escorting destroyers from the Chinese Navy. Liaoweng-1 is the most sophisticated command-and-control vessel in the Chinese Navy, and is equipped with powerful radars. The US is concerned these can detect F-35s.

Presumably by sheer coincidence, an Iranian ground defence system acquired an F-35 over southern Iran and directed fire at it, damaging the aircraft. It was able to make an emergency landing at a friendly airstrip.

Qatar has extended its blistering criticism of the conflict to the USA, with Trump brazenly lying by saying it had no idea Israel was going to hit the Iranian oil fields. Qatar's PM has now implied that Trump is in Putin's pocket, since Russia is benefitting from the curent chaos (whilst Ukraine has sent anti-drone teams to Qatar).

The World Health Organisation is modelling a contingency of Israel and/or the USA using nuclear weapons over Iran.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

The leaders of Britain, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Japan issued a joint statement on Thursday expressing their "readiness to contribute to appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the [Hormuz] Strait."

They did not specify what those efforts may entail but urged for "an immediate comprehensive moratorium on attacks on civilian infrastructure, including oil and gas installations".

https://www.aljazeer...n-hormuz-strait

If it eventually ends up being a multinational ground occupation of a coastal buffer zone, it would at least give their militaries real combat experience in drone-heavy modern warfare.

But that's probably still at least a month away. Energy prices might have to go much higher before politicians feel there's sufficient popular support for joining in an extremely unpopular war. Since the war is especially unpopular in Japan, it would seem surprising if they end up amending their pacifist constitution for this...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 19 March 2026 - 10:27 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Correction to my previous post: Japan apparently might not have to amend its constitution.

Quote

In July 2014 the Abe cabinet reinterpreted the constitution to recognise limited forms of collective self-defence. [...]

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's go-to example of a situation that would warrant the SDF's right to exercise collective self-defence — a mine blockade of the Strait of Hormuz

https://eastasiaforu...-security-laws/

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 20 March 2026 - 01:40 AM

[amphibian]

QuickTidal, on 19 March 2026 - 05:57 PM, said:

We need to be weaned off fossil fuels, not shoved off.

The going off of fossil fuels will feature sudden or dramatic drops of functioning punctuating slower declines as the industries move in stages towards going off.

There will not be a simple and easy weaning for all.

https://www.volts.wt...fuel-systems-in

Quote

This is the super intuitive one. When you hear EV drivers complaining about the fact that they can’t find a charger, that happens on the way back down too. You get to a system where there aren’t as many gas stations as you’re expecting, and they maybe go out of business in slightly unpredictable ways, or not unpredictable ways, but in ways that aren’t really matched to the optimal placement of where you would want gas stations to support the remaining need. That stuff comes up a lot.

In the power sector, one of the examples that I like to point to is the notion of having to curtail resources. When people talk about the duck curve or having natural gas peakers start-stop to accommodate solar in the middle of the day, or having to shut off solar because there is too much of a baseloader available, these are the kinds of maladaptations that reveal that we can’t run the traditional system the way that we’ve historically run it, but also the new things that are coming online are entering into institutional structures that weren’t designed for them. It’s leading to these strange outcomes that would not probably be the case on either stable side — either a fossil system or a not-fossil system, you wouldn’t really see those problems.

One that we get into a lot with the minimum viable scale stuff is on the petroleum refining side, which is that we expect product demand to go down unevenly. We may expect to see gasoline demand dropping off faster because it’s easier to replace those kinds of services with buses and dense transit options, but also with EVs or something like that. It’s much harder to conceive of seeing jet fuel demand or petrochemical demand going down quite as fast. But the way that refineries are actually designed has these products in pretty specific ratios that are difficult to change. Stuff like that comes up a lot.

[Werthead]

Iran has fired two ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia. The first missile broke up in flight, the second was shot down. This has caused major consternation because Diego Garcia is 4,120km from Iran, almost twice the distance of Iran's longest-ranged missile, the Sejjil. This might have been a Qaem-100 satellite launch vehicle repurposed into a weapon.

An Iranian ballistic missile has landed in the middle of Jerusalem, basically between the Western Wall and the al-Aqsa Mosque. Iran levelling the al-Aqsa Mosque would be doing Israel a massive favour.

[Cause]

Is the US seriously removing sanctions on Iranian oil while bombing Iran? Is this as crazy as it sounds. Iran gets paid still. Trump and Kegsbreath are reaching levels of 4th dimensional chess strategy that is beyond mere mortal
Comprehension.

I don’t think Al-aqsa getting blown up will be good for anyone. Iran will get blamed but so will Israel. The conspiracy theories will never end. It’s also the holiest site in Judaism so I don’t think either side wants it blown up.

[Werthead]

Some wild rumours that Israel blew up a Russian cargo ship on the Caspian Sea carrying a ton of drones they were back-exporting to Iran. Russia posted a long and rambling PR message that "the Caspian States" might dragged into the war (spoiler: they won't).

Some insider reporting that Hegseth is asking the military branches for volunteers to undertake a Kharg Island operation.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 21 March 2026 - 04:06 AM, said:

Is the US seriously removing sanctions on Iranian oil while bombing Iran? Is this as crazy as it sounds. Iran gets paid still. Trump and Kegsbreath are reaching levels of 4th dimensional chess strategy that is beyond mere mortal
Comprehension.

Wonder how much of that is getting paid to Russia...

Meanwhile, Trump posted:

Quote

The Hormuz Strait will have to be guarded and policed, as necessary, by other Nations who use it — The United States does not! If asked, we will help these Countries in their Hormuz efforts, but it shouldn't be necessary once Iran's threat is eradicated. Importantly, it will be an easy Military Operation for them. Thank you for your attention to this matter! President DONALD J. TRUMP

Truth Details | Truth Social

OTOH the Pentagon is preparing to deploy ground forces, perhaps only to Kharg and/or other islands:

Quote

The Pentagon is actively preparing for a ground war in Iran [...] U.S. military officials have drawn up detailed plans to deploy ground forces into Iran, including elite rapid-response units [...]

Multiple sources briefed on the discussions say the plans go far beyond routine military readiness, including meetings on how to detain Iranian soldiers and paramilitary fighters, and where to send them if U.S. troops enter Iranian territory.

News of the plan coincides with an accelerating U.S. military buildup in the region.

A few thousand soldiers from the 82nd Airborne Division could be deployed as part of the plans[...] Trained to deploy into high-risk combat zones at short notice, the division can conduct airborne assaults to secure key positions in the opening phase of a ground operation.

[...] Additional amphibious groups are also en route, bringing the total expected deployment to as many as 8,000 personnel, including between 4,000 and 5,000 Marines.

https://www.thedaily...ops-is-exposed/

According to a recent poll, most Republicans do support sending in special forces, but only 14% want a "full-scale invasion":

Quote

[...] 65 percent of U.S. adults think Trump will eventually order troops into a large ground-scale invasion[...]

Just 7 percent of respondents said they support sending troops into a ground war with Iran, compared to 55 percent who said they do not. Roughly one-third of respondents said they support putting only special forces on the ground[...]

The numbers also show widespread opposition to a full-scale invasion across the political spectrum, with only 14 percent of Republicans, 3 percent of Democrats and 4 percent of independents backing the idea.

While most Democrats and independent respondents do not support sending any U.S. troops into Iran, 63 percent of Republicans appeared open to the prospect of special forces entering [Iran]

Most Americans in new survey believe Donald Trump will send ground troops to Iran

Trump will probably try to make a "deal" with US allies: US forces go in first to try to clear the area, then an international coalition takes up the subsequent occupation.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 21 March 2026 - 04:21 PM

[the broken]

Can kinda see the logic of letting oil at sea reach its destination, as long as they don't let them back in to refill again. Better than just stranding them at sea until the sailors run out of food and abandon ship.

Don't think any coalition can actually open the strait, all you need to close it is a few people with drones, enough to make tankers not want to risk it.

[Garak]

Agreed but tell that to the orange buffoon and his circus of clowns.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has said Tehran is ready to facilitate the passage of Japanese vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, [...] and that negotiations with Japan on the issue are ongoing.

[...] In Tokyo, a Foreign Ministry official said Japan will carefully assess Araghchi's remarks, adding even if Japanese vessels are able to sail through, the surge in energy prices will remain.

A Japanese government official said that "directly negotiating with the Iranian side" is the "most effective way" to lift the blockade of the strait, while noting the need to avoid provoking the United States.

Iran ready to help passage of Japan ships in Strait of Hormuz: Araghchi - Kyodo News

Might be sufficient to take military involvement by Japan off the table. I'm surprised they didn't demand that Japan must end their military ailliance with the United States---and kick the US military out of Japan. (If Western nations put it to a popular vote and the options were to A. dissolve their military alliances with the US and throw the US military out of their countries or B. contribute large numbers of ground troops to occupy a buffer zone around the Strait of Hormuz until automated systems can take over for them, many of them might pick A... but Iran might not consider that sufficient deterrent for Trump.)

Wonder if Iran was actually concerned about the potential for Japanese military involvement, or if it's more that they want the extra money. Also raises the question of whether they'll be willing to make a similar exception for South Korea:

Quote

South Korea is in close talks with countries, including Iran, to ensure a swift normalization of the Strait of Hormuz after Tehran said it is ready to allow Japan-bound vessels to pass through the sea route virtually closed in the wake of the Middle East crisis, a foreign ministry official said Saturday.

https://www.koreatim...trait-of-hormuz

[Werthead]

Iranian missiles hit Arad, Israel, causing significant damage and over 30 casualties, though somehow no fatalities. The missiles may have been aimed at the Dimona nuclear facility. The failure of Israel to intercept the missiles over one of the most heavily-defended parts of Israeli territory is pretty stunning.

Analysts now think the vehicles launched at Diego Garcia didn't have much (or any) chance of reaching the island, so the conclusion people are reaching that most of Europe (including the UK) might be in range of Iranian missiles is probably incorrect.

[Werthead]

Trump threatening to destroy Iran's electrical power grid if it does not open the Straits of Hormuz, Iran saying it will target all energy infrastructure in the Gulf in retaliation and warning it can carry out asymmetrical attacks in Europe and the US.

Iranian missiles hit Adad and Dimona, near Israel's main nuclear site. Over 100 casualties, somehow no deaths but several very serious injuries.

Europe's missile defences, particularly the landlocked AEGIS system in Romania and the various ships around Cyprus, are on alert for possible long-range missile launches at Europe.

This is all going swimmingly well.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 22 March 2026 - 01:19 PM, said:

Trump threatening to destroy Iran's electrical power grid if it does not open the Straits of Hormuz, Iran saying it will target all energy infrastructure in the Gulf in retaliation and warning it can carry out asymmetrical attacks in Europe and the US.

Iranian missiles hit Adad and Dimona, near Israel's main nuclear site. Over 100 casualties, somehow no deaths but several very serious injuries.

Europe's missile defences, particularly the landlocked AEGIS system in Romania and the various ships around Cyprus, are on alert for possible long-range missile launches at Europe.

This is all going swimmingly well.

Quote

"The United States has blown Iran off of the map," Trump posted, insisting the country's leadership, navy, and air force were "dead" and that Tehran had "absolutely no defense." [...]

But a little over one hour later, [...] Trump appeared to undercut his own claims of total victory with a stark ultimatum.

"If Iran doesn't FULLY OPEN, WITHOUT THREAT, the Strait of Hormuz, within 48 HOURS… the United States… will hit and obliterate their various POWER PLANTS," he blasted in the second post.

The escalation landed awkwardly alongside his earlier claims of total victory, and also raised legal red flags since targeting civilian infrastructure, like power plants, is considered a war crime under international law.

Trump Makes U-Turn One Hour After Trying to Tout Bonkers Iran War Victory - The Daily Beast

Hmm... anyone care to arrest Trump for war crimes the next time he travels abroad?...

Iran should post a bounty for Trump's arrest. I'm imagining the wanted posters...

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 22 March 2026 - 01:58 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Covid gave us hybrid work. The Iran War might give us a four-day week—and this time, experts say it could stick

[...] as Sri Lanka, the Philippines, and Pakistan move to a 4-day work week because of the war in Iran, experts say we're the closest we've ever been to a permanent shorter workweek.

It started in Asia, but now major governments around the world are once again mandating that workers stay home to save on fuel and survive an energy crisis [...]

[...] once the experiment runs, the burden of proof flips. "If employers experiment with a four-day workweek and employees show they can deliver in four days what they previously delivered in five, management has to justify the fifth day rather than the other way around." [...] Add AI rewriting what productivity means, a cost-of-living crisis, stagnant wages and workers who've already had a taste of flexibility, and the pressure for more flexible ways of working is converging from every direction at once.

Covid gave us hybrid work. The Iran War might give us a four-day week—and this time, experts say it could stick- Fortune

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 22 March 2026 - 07:02 PM