Malazan Empire: Mafia 150 - Lockdown Hell - Malazan Empire

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Mafia 150 - Lockdown Hell

#1561 User is offline   Okaros 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 08:47 AM

View PostKilava, on 29 May 2020 - 08:42 AM, said:

Nice xpost after I left that in the fast reply forever

What makes you think I have resisted voting gait? If anything I should be praised for slowing the lynch down, right? It should be obvious that putting someone at L-1 midday while everyone agrees to take more time to talk is a bad idea right?

You don't use quotes often so it is hard to see where you draw your conclusions from


Perhaps I should have said ‘resistant to considering Gait as possible scum.’ You mention the ‘CF clusterfuck’ once but don’t give your own opinion on it or what you think about Gait’s play in general.

#1562 User is offline   Okaros 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 08:51 AM

To correct something in Kilava’s post: Aranatha voted for Gait before I came on to swap to Gait, so they didn’t do it for my reason as I had not appeared to even make it yet (in fact you were arguing with Ara yesterday about how they were using a Hanas quote to swap to Gait, so how have you managed to forget that so quickly?)

#1563 User is offline   Aranatha 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 08:59 AM

View PostKilava, on 29 May 2020 - 08:38 AM, said:

View PostAranatha, on 28 May 2020 - 10:14 PM, said:


Not that long time left, and how is getting some extra time to think things over bad for town exactly? I've been clear with why I did what I did. But you're allowed to do whatever you want man, just make sure you're not being stupid on purpose.


I realize you gave a reason after the fact - and yes technically your actions did even out votes - I think the problem is that if you were really concerned about slowing down the trains to benefit town, you wouldn't have jumped directly to another train. You'd just remove vote, that stops/slows any train.

Instead you went after gait for presumably the case okaros made. So I see why it is hard to buy the extra time for town excuse


No it wasn't after the fact - I stated in the post where I changed that I realized it was going too fast. I wasn't considering the speed at first, simple as that. I had many reasons for voting for Gait - slowing down the day was only one of those reasons. As town strategies goes - putting pressure on the opposite train when one train seemingly speeds up for no reason partly to see who will protest - which I think worked out as intended. Doesn't give any definitive results, but it's a start.

#1564 User is offline   Aranatha 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 09:01 AM

Btw my vote made the trains 2-2 and I'm not responsible for anyone voting after me.

#1565 User is offline   Okaros 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 09:30 AM

Went back to Tennes’ reveal and death.

There were less than 30 minutes between Tennes’ reveal and end of day. Considering the likelihood of a Tennes lynch before the reveal, it seems very likely that scum changed their NK target in that time.

Of our suspects, only Hanas was on and posting at the time. But worth noting that Gait was on just 20 minutes before Tennes’ reveal, then disappeared.

#1566 User is offline   Okaros 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 10:26 AM

Tennes reveal to end of day was around 3:40pm to 4:10pm GMT.

- Kilava tends to start posting from about 4pm, with some posts early in the morning UK time (presumably their night time?). A handful of posts around 3pm-4pm also.

- Aranatha has posted at every single time in the day (!!!), but the majority of their posts come in UK night and late morning (9pm to 1am; 10am-1pm). Interestingly, their posting in the 3pm-4pm range has, as far as I can tell, ALWAYS been directly in response to someone talking about them rather than commenting on other things in the thread.

- Gait has posted much more in the 3pm-4pm range than the two above, but also tends to range quite widely, from around 5am to 10pm and then some early AM posts too (do you people sleep?!). Probably a greatest concentration of posts around lunchtime, just by eyeballing it.

- Hanas is by far the most consistent in their posting times: 9pm-10pm, and 10am-11am more often than not. The ONLY time they posted in the 3pm-4pm range was during the Tennes' reveal and switch to a failed Osseric lynch. Were it not for that I would have said they were the least likely to have been able to switch to Tennes on short notice :p

#1567 User is offline   Hanas 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 10:29 AM

View PostOkaros, on 29 May 2020 - 07:30 AM, said:

View PostHanas, on 27 May 2020 - 08:57 PM, said:

Got distracted and I'm at L-1?

I hate to repeat old wisdom but this is sure looking like a speed lynch.

With both Kilava and Gait on my ass, look closely at them tomorrow.


Think Kilava and Gait are scum, votes for Aranatha. Could be distancing, could be not wanting to seem like a desperate scum by just placing a vote on Gait, and could be a moron.


Killer or Symp. I've said I think Kilava is scum before. Have I said Gait is or are you confusing me with everyone pulling pairings out of their bottom?

Also probably moron given how little time I'm getting on thread atm.

#1568 User is offline   Hanas 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 10:36 AM

View PostOkaros, on 29 May 2020 - 10:26 AM, said:

- Hanas is by far the most consistent in their posting times: 9pm-10pm, and 10am-11am more often than not. The ONLY time they posted in the 3pm-4pm range was during the Tennes' reveal and switch to a failed Osseric lynch. Were it not for that I would have said they were the least likely to have been able to switch to Tennes on short notice :p


My life is dictated by factors mostly outside anyones control :X

2:30-X is nap time. When I can get shit done and chill. X is an unknown quantity never greater than 4pm, I have partially read up a few times in that period but never had anything worth posting. The one time something interesting is happening and it's unusual because it is something I don't need to read up on and it'll damn me? Ahh well shit happens.

#1569 User is offline   Okaros 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 10:41 AM

So in theory, Gait should have been around during that time, but wasn't. Kilava should have also been around close to that time or soon after, but wasn't. Aranatha also could have been around but was *slightly* less likely to have been so than the first two.

#1570 User is offline   Gait 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 11:14 AM

View PostOkaros, on 29 May 2020 - 10:41 AM, said:

So in theory, Gait should have been around during that time, but wasn't. Kilava should have also been around close to that time or soon after, but wasn't. Aranatha also could have been around but was *slightly* less likely to have been so than the first two.



Interesting that you choose to circle that one time I am not active in the last 20 minutes of an EoD situation. As I noted when I got back I received a call from my daughter. I talk to her often but once a week we have a zoom call and share a meal. we live apart and she is young so those sorts of things are important to both of us.

I was online and active on every other EoD including around the time Thyr was being voted on.

If that doesn't fit your theory then so be it but I'm happy with how I have used my time thus far.

#1571 User is offline   Okaros 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 11:20 AM

View PostGait, on 29 May 2020 - 11:14 AM, said:

View PostOkaros, on 29 May 2020 - 10:41 AM, said:

So in theory, Gait should have been around during that time, but wasn't. Kilava should have also been around close to that time or soon after, but wasn't. Aranatha also could have been around but was *slightly* less likely to have been so than the first two.



Interesting that you choose to circle that one time I am not active in the last 20 minutes of an EoD situation. As I noted when I got back I received a call from my daughter. I talk to her often but once a week we have a zoom call and share a meal. we live apart and she is young so those sorts of things are important to both of us.

I was online and active on every other EoD including around the time Thyr was being voted on.

If that doesn't fit your theory then so be it but I'm happy with how I have used my time thus far.




So who do you think is most likely to have changed the NK to Tennes, if you have any thoughts on that?

#1572 User is offline   Gait 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 11:43 AM

View PostOkaros, on 29 May 2020 - 11:20 AM, said:

View PostGait, on 29 May 2020 - 11:14 AM, said:

View PostOkaros, on 29 May 2020 - 10:41 AM, said:

So in theory, Gait should have been around during that time, but wasn't. Kilava should have also been around close to that time or soon after, but wasn't. Aranatha also could have been around but was *slightly* less likely to have been so than the first two.



Interesting that you choose to circle that one time I am not active in the last 20 minutes of an EoD situation. As I noted when I got back I received a call from my daughter. I talk to her often but once a week we have a zoom call and share a meal. we live apart and she is young so those sorts of things are important to both of us.

I was online and active on every other EoD including around the time Thyr was being voted on.

If that doesn't fit your theory then so be it but I'm happy with how I have used my time thus far.




So who do you think is most likely to have changed the NK to Tennes, if you have any thoughts on that?


I dont put much stock on this as an avenue for information.

Absence being a pre-requisite to make an NK on Tennes assumes many things that I don't think are correct. If you are present that does not mean you are incapable of a switch. The killers having set Tennes as an NK beforehand is also not unthinkable. considering how absent certain players were I would not be surprised if they had me or Tennes as a possible target with provisions should a lynch be on either one of us to switch.

In essence reading that activity I think scum had time before timeout and plenty of possible presence.

It feels like WIFOMisms, but if theres something in those last 30 mins, from my perspective I don't see it.

#1573 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 12:21 PM

It is day 6. 6 hours 5 minutes remaining.

8 players left alive. Aranatha, Barghast, Hanas, Kilava, Venesara. 

5 votes to lynch.

3 votes for Gait; Fanderay, Aranatha, Okaros
1 votes Hanas; Gait
1 vote Aranatha; Hanas


Players not voted; Barghast, Kilava, Venesara.
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#1574 User is offline   Okaros 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 12:38 PM

I’ve gone over this so many times that frankly all four of you look equally scummy to me now. I don’t think I can do any more. Hanas has lacked substance the whole game. Kilava is looking increasingly scummy the more they post. Aranatha has posted plenty yet mostly succeeded in staying off the radar, in itself worth noting, but was on the tail end of Thyr’s lynch and said some dodgy things a number of time. Gait has the plus point of being 4th on Thyr’s lynch but that’s about it. I don’t know how heavy that should be weigh in their consideration.

Gait, that remark about Osseric’s CF, I don’t see how I can let that go, no matter what else. That was dumb, whatever role you have.

#1575 User is offline   Gait 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 01:22 PM

View PostOkaros, on 29 May 2020 - 12:38 PM, said:

I’ve gone over this so many times that frankly all four of you look equally scummy to me now. I don’t think I can do any more. Hanas has lacked substance the whole game. Kilava is looking increasingly scummy the more they post. Aranatha has posted plenty yet mostly succeeded in staying off the radar, in itself worth noting, but was on the tail end of Thyr’s lynch and said some dodgy things a number of time. Gait has the plus point of being 4th on Thyr’s lynch but that’s about it. I don’t know how heavy that should be weigh in their consideration.

Gait, that remark about Osseric’s CF, I don’t see how I can let that go, no matter what else. That was dumb, whatever role you have.


You dont see me arguing.

A slip is a slip.

I find it funny how much you've muddied things. If anyone credited you before I would heavily doubt your activity once you have my CF. If the maths say I'm the vote you need to make then make it. Musing over it with no actual substance makes no sense.

If you doubt it then vote the other way but I offered as much help as I could, its your choice to believe it or not.

#1576 User is offline   Okaros 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 01:35 PM

View PostGait, on 29 May 2020 - 01:22 PM, said:

View PostOkaros, on 29 May 2020 - 12:38 PM, said:

I've gone over this so many times that frankly all four of you look equally scummy to me now. I don't think I can do any more. Hanas has lacked substance the whole game. Kilava is looking increasingly scummy the more they post. Aranatha has posted plenty yet mostly succeeded in staying off the radar, in itself worth noting, but was on the tail end of Thyr's lynch and said some dodgy things a number of time. Gait has the plus point of being 4th on Thyr's lynch but that's about it. I don't know how heavy that should be weigh in their consideration.

Gait, that remark about Osseric's CF, I don't see how I can let that go, no matter what else. That was dumb, whatever role you have.


You dont see me arguing.

A slip is a slip.

I find it funny how much you've muddied things. If anyone credited you before I would heavily doubt your activity once you have my CF. If the maths say I'm the vote you need to make then make it. Musing over it with no actual substance makes no sense.

If you doubt it then vote the other way but I offered as much help as I could, its your choice to believe it or not.




I've muddied things? I'm the only one on here actually looking through anything. Where do YOU get off telling other people they've muddied things? You have constantly got things wrong again and again and again, and you admit to a slip in the very same post in which you have to gall to say someone else has muddied things?

What choice have you offered me exactly? What have you done to go over the thread, to pore over the other players, other than to talk nonsense about Tennes, to talk nonsense about Osseric being 'leaned' on? In another post you even say you may not 'get facts straight' but we should...what? Be able to see through to the spirit of your argument? Not good enough.

You are as likely to be town as you are to be scum - how has that helped me?

#1577 User is offline   Okaros 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 01:37 PM

If Venesara doesn't come on to stop themselves being modkilled we're probably fucked anyway, unless we get this lynch right. So those of you who are not PI but are town, step up and make your case on someone else.

#1578 User is offline   Gait 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 02:08 PM

View PostOkaros, on 29 May 2020 - 01:35 PM, said:

View PostGait, on 29 May 2020 - 01:22 PM, said:

View PostOkaros, on 29 May 2020 - 12:38 PM, said:

I've gone over this so many times that frankly all four of you look equally scummy to me now. I don't think I can do any more. Hanas has lacked substance the whole game. Kilava is looking increasingly scummy the more they post. Aranatha has posted plenty yet mostly succeeded in staying off the radar, in itself worth noting, but was on the tail end of Thyr's lynch and said some dodgy things a number of time. Gait has the plus point of being 4th on Thyr's lynch but that's about it. I don't know how heavy that should be weigh in their consideration.

Gait, that remark about Osseric's CF, I don't see how I can let that go, no matter what else. That was dumb, whatever role you have.


You dont see me arguing.

A slip is a slip.

I find it funny how much you've muddied things. If anyone credited you before I would heavily doubt your activity once you have my CF. If the maths say I'm the vote you need to make then make it. Musing over it with no actual substance makes no sense.

If you doubt it then vote the other way but I offered as much help as I could, its your choice to believe it or not.




I've muddied things? I'm the only one on here actually looking through anything. Where do YOU get off telling other people they've muddied things? You have constantly got things wrong again and again and again, and you admit to a slip in the very same post in which you have to gall to say someone else has muddied things?

What choice have you offered me exactly? What have you done to go over the thread, to pore over the other players, other than to talk nonsense about Tennes, to talk nonsense about Osseric being 'leaned' on? In another post you even say you may not 'get facts straight' but we should...what? Be able to see through to the spirit of your argument? Not good enough.

You are as likely to be town as you are to be scum - how has that helped me?


You have muddied things Okaros.

You are looking in every direction without focus and you are engaging in leading arguments. You do not quote texts to support any of your reads but spend time arguing others have not built cases that are "good enough". I have looked at Okral Lom, Hanas, Sheltatha, Venesara, Hanas, Tennes, Rikkter, Osseric and even Aranatha. I Looked at Thyrs train twice in Day 2 for two different reasons and am doing way more than pointing fingers each time so when I make mistakes look in the context of all the shit I have been doing.

I have not gotten all of it wrong and I acknowledge when something is wrong. That doesnt make me a bad player. It means I make an effort and have focused along a thread of inquiry. Always I refer to scum we know and how they interact, how they vote and how they react.

You are openly proud about how wrong your reads are maybe more of a focused approach might get you a better record?

So yes, I get to call your actions muddying the thread because I can see, as well as any, that my mistakes aren't helping me, yours aren't either.

#1579 User is offline   Barghast 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 02:10 PM

View PostOkaros, on 29 May 2020 - 12:38 PM, said:

I’ve gone over this so many times that frankly all four of you look equally scummy to me now. I don’t think I can do any more. Hanas has lacked substance the whole game. Kilava is looking increasingly scummy the more they post. Aranatha has posted plenty yet mostly succeeded in staying off the radar, in itself worth noting, but was on the tail end of Thyr’s lynch and said some dodgy things a number of time. Gait has the plus point of being 4th on Thyr’s lynch but that’s about it. I don’t know how heavy that should be weigh in their consideration.

Gait, that remark about Osseric’s CF, I don’t see how I can let that go, no matter what else. That was dumb, whatever role you have.


Ain't had that much time for this this week but every time I read through thing I get to similar conclusions over and over again, while Gait keeps whining about how we're suspicious of him, Kilava keep picking fights with PIs, Hanas comes on to ask whether they've been lynched yet, and Aranatha keep suspecting everyone plus also becoming mostly absent now, and none of them apparently can see beyond the accusations laid at their feet

Venesara is about to get modkilled

Fande is probably not far away from it either, and that's it

It doesn't really make sense whatever combination of scum or town you come up

Reading back I could see Aranatha's rather extreme mood swings and spats with Shel as forced or fabricated to make them look exactly like they do

Kilava's nonsense possibly reads more genuine than that, possibly less so than Gait's whining

Hanas just doesn't give a shit

I've thought about Okaros being scum and fake revealing but then he'd have to be betting on one of Osserc or Gamelon having been the Healer and I don't see him taking such low chances

#1580 User is offline   Barghast 

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Posted 29 May 2020 - 02:18 PM

View PostOkaros, on 29 May 2020 - 07:30 AM, said:

View PostHanas, on 27 May 2020 - 08:57 PM, said:

Got distracted and I'm at L-1?

I hate to repeat old wisdom but this is sure looking like a speed lynch.

With both Kilava and Gait on my ass, look closely at them tomorrow.


Think Kilava and Gait are scum, votes for Aranatha. Could be distancing, could be not wanting to seem like a desperate scum by just placing a vote on Gait, and could be a moron.


If scum wanted to take a shot at having a symp and the symp hammering, then the two are the likeliest

But if they weren't trying for that I see both scum jumping the train that early hoping some town hammers as less likely than one of killers trying to be on his partner's train

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