Malazan Empire: Mafia 150 - Lockdown Hell - Malazan Empire

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Mafia 150 - Lockdown Hell

#281 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 09:36 PM

View PostTennes, on 13 May 2020 - 08:22 AM, said:

Back online but will be a while before I'm properly read up.

A quick note for now:

View PostBarghast, on 13 May 2020 - 06:55 AM, said:

View PostPrazec Goul, on 12 May 2020 - 10:26 PM, said:

View PostTennes, on 12 May 2020 - 09:48 PM, said:

View PostSkintick, on 12 May 2020 - 06:40 PM, said:

sorry, all, My VPN tunnel to the work PC keeps dropping, so I had to kill all browser windows to keep the precious Wi-Fi bandwidth flowing.

As usual, if someone's making a symp case, the logical conclusion should be, who is that person trying to symp. I never get tired of having to repeat that.

Prazec, Shelthata, Okral.

Ok. So you think Skintick is a symp, and that he is symping one of us. But he even says to not lynch the symp, lynch the one he’s symping.

What shitty symp would tell you to lynch his killer?

I’ve had a couple drinks and probably should go to bed, but I’m not getting this logic.


What shitty symptom would never tell you to lynch his master?



This is a good observation. The question from Prazec is so obtuse that I have a hard time believing it's genuine.


As a side-note: I don't think Aranatha is scum. I'm sure as hell annoyed at their blinkers but this just feels like a classic bad town play.


IMO, calling out someone's play as "bad" is a good way to put them on tilt. Kinda scummy.

#282 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 09:45 PM

View PostMerrid, on 13 May 2020 - 09:57 AM, said:

As Day 1 suspicions go, I like Tennes' on Skintick possibly signalling Prazec, Shelly and/or Okral. Love the use of that 3/4 in the case - sometimes it is just that obvious :D However, I wouldn't go so far as to say all three are being signalled at. For example, mentioning Prazec and Shelly in the same sentence if they were both killers would be going too far into the blatant.


Nope, this is his last post.

#283 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 09:45 PM

View PostFanderay, on 13 May 2020 - 01:10 PM, said:

Okral's last two posts are both pretty weird. I'll vote for him for now, but I'd like to see more thoughts from him. Sheltatha Lore and Aranatha had a bit of a spat, and I'll take a closer look at that later.

Vote Okral Lom


Did Fanderay ever go back and look at this?

#284 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 09:50 PM

View PostBarghast, on 13 May 2020 - 03:25 PM, said:

What a pretty pile up, will be interesting to analyze later

Thought it might be connected to Tennes getting 2 votes to Okral's 3 but then the Okral voters are pretty direct in opposing the votes on Tennes which doesn't look like a scum strategy

I don't think Okral is that likely to be a killer, his play seems too unguarded for scum, wishy washy indeed but like careless about it

I wouldn't bring up lack of resistance as an argument, this is not much of a time or situation for resistance from scum

But still this was easy and I'm a little alarmed how swiftly the train went, including Ruse's and Ara's relatively quick switch from Tennes (Note that Aranatha is suddenly content enough with following Tennes after all the vibe scanner stuff)

vote Thyrllan

A lot of dubious stuff going on today but it kinda started when there were 2 votes on Thyr, who during that time got a few joke or otherwise altogether insubstantial posts in, made sure he takes having the votes on himself with ease, then as the attention on him died away so did his presence


I didn't have much to say early on for sure. But then I just got busy =/

#285 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 09:53 PM

View PostRikkter, on 13 May 2020 - 05:07 PM, said:

View PostPrazec Goul, on 13 May 2020 - 05:06 PM, said:

View PostTennes, on 13 May 2020 - 04:57 PM, said:

9 with Jalan. L-2.

It looks like that will be the lynch today then. Would still like to hear from the coasters before I drop my vote and speed this along. I also wouldn’t mind hearing more from Okral.

I’ll be watching the thread and won’t miss timeout.


Believe it when I see it.


So aggressive.

#286 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 09:55 PM

View PostMerrid, on 13 May 2020 - 07:26 PM, said:

I'm around if a vote's needed. Not much to add to what's already been said, though I did chuckle at Okral choosing me for their vote. I'm happy to vote Okral for their reaction to being quizzed rather than for the possible "3/4" signalling (I much prefer 'reaction cases' to symp signalling ones, which ultimately almost never turn out to be right as most symps never bother signalling).


Apparently counting is hard for me lol. This doesn't offer much, though.

#287 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 09:56 PM

View PostPrazec Goul, on 13 May 2020 - 07:22 PM, said:

Just a little over an hour to go.

Vote Okaros

View PostMerrid, on 13 May 2020 - 07:26 PM, said:

View PostPrazec Goul, on 13 May 2020 - 07:22 PM, said:

Just a little over an hour to go.

Vote Okaros



Oka-who?

View PostPrazec Goul, on 13 May 2020 - 07:29 PM, said:

Oh duh. Thanks for that.

remove vote

Vote Okral



*cough* *cough* Signal *cough*

#288 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 09:57 PM

View PostKalse, on 14 May 2020 - 05:15 AM, said:

Okaros never posted, and Gamelon, Osseric and Kilava each posted once, and I believe that was their "in!" posts. If the killers are in there we have no chance; we're a bunch of chicken pecking at each other while the wolf is sleeping.


Low posters boooooooooooooooooooooo.

#289 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 09:58 PM

View PostTennes, on 14 May 2020 - 10:56 AM, said:

If this is a freudian slip, why not vote the person who slipped? But yeah, I feel like there's more to that slip so for now I'm gonna go for Prazec.

Later today I'll be rereading the thread to look at a couple of players who had a fair bit of activity but somehow flew completely under my radar D1, like Gait, Kalse, and Barghast. I saw some mentions of suspicion about Thyr too and gun to head I couldn't tell you what that's about, so I definitely need to backtrack and read up on this as well.

On another note, I find it amusing how Aranatha says they were 'prodding me' when in fact they went fucking apoplectic over a single post.


Right now, though:

Vote Prazec


Aranatha is the textbook example of stirring the pot so furiously that things are just bubbling out of it.

#290 User is offline   Sheltatha Lore 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 09:59 PM

View PostGait, on 14 May 2020 - 05:48 PM, said:


Thyrllens only real wrong has been absence but on review there were atleast 4 other players in that exact same category.
Sheltatha has been SUPER vocal Day 1 however didn't really land on any vote at days end.

I'd like to understand why.


meh... I simply forgot about the game and only realised about 10 min past deadline.Posted Image

#291 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 10:00 PM

View PostVenesara, on 14 May 2020 - 01:35 PM, said:

View PostBarghast, on 13 May 2020 - 07:09 PM, said:

Then who do you find scummy?



Well, I had an eye on Merrid, which was dumb apparently.

I was thinking about your post from the 1st page, but I don't believe anybody else was concerned, so I'm not hanging on to that one much

Nobody really sticking out


You show up late. Say little of interest. Don't vote. Disappear.

I'd vote for you now if I hadn't done the same thing (except showing up late) lol!

#292 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 10:00 PM

View PostVenesara, on 14 May 2020 - 01:45 PM, said:

View PostSheltatha Lore, on 14 May 2020 - 10:23 AM, said:

View PostOkaros, on 14 May 2020 - 07:59 AM, said:

Hey all, really sorry for the late arrival. Completely forgot about the game, no other reason. PS sent me a message to remind me and I just saw it. Haven't read up on anything yet, no idea what's going on. I'll try to get caught up today.


Vote Okaros




mostly for motivation for you to get stuck in and little bit because of all the Freudian slips with Okaral mix ups.


What is the reasoning behind your concern with the name mistake?


That said this is soooo obtuse.

#293 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 10:03 PM

View PostSkintick, on 14 May 2020 - 04:23 PM, said:

Vote Thyrllan
2 blocks of posts, first some jokes , and the second set of posts the next RL day inquiring about low posters. 3 posts to place them in the middle of the post count, and make It look like they're on the ball, but absolutely nothing of substance

View PostThyrllan, on 12 May 2020 - 04:46 PM, said:

Man, I think I understand why Mafia has been slowly dying. It's just hard to keep up with it these days. So busy.

Anyway, we have a day or so left.



View PostThyrllan, on 12 May 2020 - 04:50 PM, said:

View PostPrazec Goul, on 12 May 2020 - 04:13 PM, said:

Has everyone posted now?


Looks like the only person we're missing is Venesara.



View PostThyrllan, on 12 May 2020 - 07:01 PM, said:

View PostPath-Shaper, on 11 May 2020 - 08:36 PM, said:

Here it is ladies and gentlemen. The first game of 2020. I hope the first of many more. Please enjoy.

It is day one: 48 hours remaining.

21 players alive. Aranatha, Barghast, Fanderay, Gait, Gamelon, Hanas, Jalan, Kalse, Kilava, Merrid, Okaros, Okral Lom, Osseric, Prazec Goul, Rikkter, Ruse, Sheltatha Lore, Skintick, Tennes, Thyr, Venesara.

Votes;

Players not voted; Aranatha, Barghast, Fanderay, Gait, Gamelon, Hanas, Jalan, Kalse, Kilava, Merrid, Okaros, Okral Lom, Osseric, Prazec Goul, Rikkter, Ruse, Sheltatha Lore, Skintick, Tennes, Thyr, Venesara.


View PostPrazec Goul, on 12 May 2020 - 04:13 PM, said:

Has everyone posted now?


Looks like the only person we're missing is Venesara.

View PostTennes, on 12 May 2020 - 05:20 PM, said:

And Okaros.


Good catch. I was looking at the list of who had posted in the thread and counted EmperorMagus.


Hiding in plain sight is what I call that.


:ninja:

More like hiding in any number of virtual meetings and then being busy with home stuff all night. *sigh*

#294 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 10:04 PM

View PostJalan, on 14 May 2020 - 04:57 PM, said:

Another thing that runs a flag up for me about Thyr is there is absolutely no response to any of the votes on him.

Vote Thryllan


A good point! Oh crap, it's about me. Anyway, your vote looks a little like an attempt to deflect off of Venes after the two votes on them.

#295 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 10:07 PM

View PostTennes, on 14 May 2020 - 08:27 PM, said:

Okay, moving on.

After Gait's vote I also moved to Okral and then Fanderay shows up, drops another vote, and at this point Okral is and left as the only viable lynch for the day. So let's break down the train, shall we?

Votes 1-3: Rikkter, Skintick, Kalse.
The people who built the original case against Okral. A solid one, as I admitted on D1.

Votes 4-6: Gait, me, Fanderay.
I believe the three of us gave the train enough momentum to seal Okral's fate for better or worse (hindsight: obviously worse).

Votes 7-11: Aranatha, Ruse, Jalan, Prazec, Merrid.
At this stage of the train there are also three alternative suggestions: Merrid (from Okral), Thyr (from Barghast), Osseric (from Hanas).
Honorable mentions go to Venesara, who at L-1 and an hour or so to timeout was pondering what we're waiting for WITHOUT CASTING A VOTE and Hanas who was around before timeout but held with switching from Osseric until the lynch was already secured and gave some weird ass 'just in case of a miscount' justification.

Bunch of quick thoughts from reviewing the train:
* For all the talk about derailing the train on Thyr, there is zero scrutiny on Rikkter and Kalse. Skintick is at least consistent, they were onto Thyr from early on. Jalan is voting Thyr already and Gait is pushing the derailing narrative I talked about in the previous post. I find it very curious that you two are circling back to this game's first almost-train but none of you even name-dropped the person who started it? What the hell.
* Ruse's vote is extremely convenient. Called out for the bullshit post about lynching me or Ara swiftly brushed it off and moved on to a safe vote on a secure lynch train.
* Venesara and Hanas are full of shit.

As for Thyr, whose presence or lack thereof is getting a lot of attention, they're coasting. That's never a good sign and they very well might be a quiet partner to a more vocal killer. There are others I'm more suspicious of but come on out Thyr, it's D2, high time you said something of substance.


Hey, analyzing vote trains is/was my bag!

Anyway, I like this type of thinking a lot. Rikkter was pretty aggressive with people. Yes, we needed a lynch but I think he might just be a jerk.

In general, more posting = more likely to get heat, so it is probably a little suspicious to not have any on Kalse or Skintick.

#296 User is offline   Sheltatha Lore 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 10:09 PM

View PostTennes, on 14 May 2020 - 06:55 PM, said:

Okay, I reread the thread and there are some loose thoughts from that. I found Sheltatha to look much better on another read. They're all over the place but making decent observations, prodding and applying pressure. Weird mistake with a signalling vote early on but despite being the most active player I can't really poke more holes in their game.

I still don't quite get the Thyr thing but will get to that below.

The first interesting interaction from D1 is when Kalse joke-votes Gait after a pun and Gait needs three posts to talk themselves out of it. They're trying too hard to convince us they're legit.

View PostGait, on 12 May 2020 - 06:19 AM, said:

WIFOMisms aside I appreciate your eagerness.

[rebuttal]
I am not signaling. I just like puns.
[/rebuttal]



View PostGait, on 12 May 2020 - 08:55 AM, said:

Oh I see. I'd suggest he/she/they might just like puns also?

Don't take my word for it. Do as you like.

Shelly seems a bit all over the place, too eager imho.



View PostGait, on 12 May 2020 - 10:31 AM, said:

Well I personally didn't understand Kalses wording, at that point a joke was a joke was a joke. I didn't actively "overlook" anything as you put it there. Just felt it was piling speculation on top of speculation.

Kalse was kind enough to explain his/her meaning. I can see why the vote was made.



Around this point two things happen that, in hindsight, shaped D1. Thyr gets 2 votes (Skintick & Sheltatha) and then I post my signalling case. The reaction to my case is more or less this:
* Okral gets weirdly defensive/nervous/self-pitying
* Prazec posts a silly reply about symping
* Aranatha melts down
* Shel calls out my case as dumb and calls out Aranatha for going HAM

This leads to the Sheltathat/Aranatha face-off and the Okral train. Gait has since claimed at least twice that the Thyrllan train was derailed/railroaded. There were two early-game votes but not even much scrutiny, so I'd hardly call that a train. So while obviously I want to hear more from Thyr, Gait's insistence there was an effort to divert attention from Thyr is pushing a narrative that didn't really happen. It's similar to what Ruse did with their claim that lynching me or Aranatha was the only viable solution for D1: trying to force the discussion into an unnecessarily narrow frame. Gait did it much more subtly though.

Now, here's a twist. For all their talking about derailment, Gait does this:

View PostGait, on 13 May 2020 - 05:37 AM, said:

[WALL OF QUOTES CUT FOR LENGTH - Tennes]

I'll be honest, Aranatha and Sheltatha read hyper sensitive right now...although Aranatha might be the type of player to dive into arguments feet first. Shelly seems to have an "anywhere but here" vibe. I noted that before.

Its early and I tend to credit Symp cases once everyone has had a say. Still, I think someone hit the mark and scum might be flooding pages to draw attention off.

The only player that has had any real heat on them was Thyrllen whos been extremely mild.

Sheltatha started that train and I agree with the "perfectly average" reasoning. Sheltatha hasn't leaned into Thyrllen despite Thyrs continued mild play style. that feels a bit off. Okral Lom has also been perfectly average and chill but keeps a sharp eye on the game.


I think there may be something here. I keep thinking were I scum i'd play like one of these two.



View PostGait, on 13 May 2020 - 09:26 AM, said:

[WALL OF QUOTES INCLUDING RUSE's POST, CUT FOR LENGTH - Tennes]
Tennes only had one vote on him till just now. Aranathas argument on Tennes was flat out instinctual and few actually bought in.
If anything all Ruse does in this post is divert the vote to Tennes from what looked like an Okral lynch. Creating a split where before there was none.

This reads like derailment from Ruse who was otherwise none existent.


Vote Okral Lom

This is the informative vote.


So in a span of few hours, Gait goes from this is a derailment to jumping on the train. Before their vote there was 3 on Okral, 2 on me, and 1 on Skintick. So for someone claiming Okral train and Shel/Ara argument and Ruse's post were all attempts to derail, Gait surely made peace very quickly with jumping on the Okral train with a vote that was crucial to give it momentum.

I need to make more tea and answer some emails now but more to follow. In the meantime, I'd like Gait to explain helping push the Okral train if you thought it was an attempt at derailment?


I like this observation, I like it allot.
This is noteworthy.


*continues catching up*

#297 User is offline   Thyrllan 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 10:11 PM

OK, lots to digest. I've gotta get back to e-work but that's my catchup and contribution.

Tennes lost some of his scumminess when I finished the re-read. There were some questionable things I brought up, but I don't think Fanderay ever did his "re-read" so for now

Vote Fanderay

#298 User is offline   Sheltatha Lore 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 10:23 PM

View PostTennes, on 14 May 2020 - 08:53 PM, said:

Now, Barghast. Their most important post is probably this:

View PostBarghast, on 13 May 2020 - 03:25 PM, said:

What a pretty pile up, will be interesting to analyze later

Thought it might be connected to Tennes getting 2 votes to Okral's 3 but then the Okral voters are pretty direct in opposing the votes on Tennes which doesn't look like a scum strategy

I don't think Okral is that likely to be a killer, his play seems too unguarded for scum, wishy washy indeed but like careless about it

I wouldn't bring up lack of resistance as an argument, this is not much of a time or situation for resistance from scum

But still this was easy and I'm a little alarmed how swiftly the train went, including Ruse's and Ara's relatively quick switch from Tennes (Note that Aranatha is suddenly content enough with following Tennes after all the vibe scanner stuff)

vote Thyrllan

A lot of dubious stuff going on today but it kinda started when there were 2 votes on Thyr, who during that time got a few joke or otherwise altogether insubstantial posts in, made sure he takes having the votes on himself with ease, then as the attention on him died away so did his presence


At this point it's already L-3 for Okral so it's clear there's not going to be another lynch. Yet Barghast decides to push back towards Thyr and also low-key pushes the derailing narrative. This reads like a townie play, especially in hindsight - questioning a lynch train and offering an alternative to make sure the lynch doesn't go through too easily.

But yet again, it rubs me the wrong way that despite questioning the validity of the train, Barghast never notices or puts any pressure on Rikkter, Skintick, or Kalse who started that train. They pressed Aranatha and Venesara, early on they had a brief interaction with Gait, but never anything about these three.


They could also be distancing themselves from what they know to be a town Lynch result there.


So when I read that post I get the opposite of "reads like townie play"




#299 User is offline   Barghast 

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 10:25 PM

Not as if you really said a fraction of what your post count would suggest yet Thyr

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Posted 14 May 2020 - 10:35 PM

View PostThyrllan, on 14 May 2020 - 09:27 PM, said:

View PostSheltatha Lore, on 13 May 2020 - 12:16 AM, said:

If I'm wrong, then I'm wrong, but I honestly don't think so. Just put yourself in the shoes of a scum playing. It's possible he would act the way Tennes has - the problem with scum posting is that you either get this feeling they don't really care about who gets the vote, unless you accidentally hit a scum friend of theirs - either way it's hard to tell which is which, especially this early in the game. I'm just watching the way people post and trying to read between the lines, just as you.
There's just something about how Tennes writes his post that comes off scummy to me. As scum it's easy to get caught up in the 'playing it normal', especially if you're excited to play but still don't want to stand out. You can fall in a trap of doing just that, because what you're posting isn't authentic. Tennes posts doesn't seem authentic to me.
If you have a better idea who could be scum this early in the game, I'm all ears.

The thing that makes me raise my eyebrows is your level of certainty. Which is odd to me.
you cannot be so sure at this point, so your accusations seem a bit off.

your temerity of his convictions is noteworthy.

My thinking is either you are throwing accusations purposely to deflect something Tennes might have gotten right (be it accidentally or luckily).
Or.. you are maybe a bit of an over eager village idiot.

It's worth looking at.

Posted Image


Maybe it's because I think he pointed at me a few times (or did he? I did just skim) but I've gotten a similar feel from Tennes. Just something fishy (fishing?) about him.



you might want to reply to the post beneath that one as this "broken post" as its misleading has broken quotes and more than one persons text in it, To not fuck around with edits I simply posted the corrected post directly after that one.

I would have assumed everyone would have realised this...hmm...guess not

Perhaps if a MOD could just delete the broken quote post for me?

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