[QuickTidal]

So since I've not seen many of us talking about this, I thought I'd make a thread to discuss our feelings.

I'm not in bug-out mode yet, but my wife (in the health care industry) has nabbed us a bunch of N95 masks in case things get rougher in Canada. The things we need to ay most attention to are not the numbers in China (which are clearly bad), but the numbers in our own countries, and how fast those numbers rise or not.

Apparently Singapore is the litmus test place everyone should be watching. Close to ground zero, 1st class medical system, and a wary/prepared government for dealing with this sort of thing. If those numbers go up, the rest of the world is in for a world of hurt. Sidenote: My sister and her family leave in 5 days to go on vacation in....Singapore and Bali....so that's fun. Ugh.

The other aspect of this is the 2-week incubation period. Meaning whole flights of people can be infected and no one would know for 2 weeks...this to me means fast spread simply because of how asymptomatic people seem to be initially while infected. That's pretty scary and makes it scarier than sARS was.

The good thing I always try to remember about these viruses is that they are NOT trying to kill us. They want to live in us as a symbiotic host (not that such a thing is GOOD either). The deaths that they cause are a result of the host body not being able to handle the infection (which is why older people and people with pre-existing health issues seem to be the ones dying).

I'm non-plussed about the fact that there is NO WAY the Chinese gov't is being up front about the "official" numbers. I would triple or quadruple them. My wife's co-worker has family in mainland China and they are telling her that the gov't is lying through its teeth. Which I mean...they've battened down some 57 million people in 10+ cities now...that does not bode well.

I'm glad that those in the know (CDC, Canada's health team ect.) are all expressing a cautious "we are not in major epidemic mode" calm state...but I worry that when this is all done, things are going to be terrible

Live Map with latest numbers here:
https://gisanddata.m...423467b48e9ecf6

What think everyone? Are you doing something? Are you not bothering? Anyone here might have more in depth knowledge of the pathology of these things and can chime in with info?

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 24 March 2020 - 11:57 AM

[Lady Bliss]

I didn’t go to the Chinese New Year parade this year, as the San Francisco celebration is quite huge with lots of people traveling here from China as entertainers or family.

I’m concerned that with Trump’s anti immigration stance that Asians could be demonized if there’s a large outbreak.

[Macros]

We're well over due a pandemic. (Not saying that in a mean way, I mean historically, we're over due)

I think people will look at this as another SARs, and ergo not panic about it as the result of it was not a mass wipeout. Like you say it's not something like the plague that just wants to kill us all, but there's still a huge potential for vulnerable people to get badly hit

[Malankazooie]

Nothing but fear tactics. We've heard this refrain before - SARS, swine flu, <plug in scary cold name here>. I'm guessing it is designed by China to control or distract from something. Hong Kong protests because they about to brutally crack down? Uyghur reeducation camps gaining traction? China is attempting to get peoples' minds on something else.

Was watching a doctor being interviewed on the local news and he stated that during a slow season the common flu will easily kill more people. The number of times I've heard Coronavirus segments end with - "please remember to wash your hands" - has been worth a few chuckles from me though.

[Gorefest]

Well, it is good to be prepared, but we shouldn't overstate this situation either. For reference, each year in the Netherlands it is estimated that between 2,000 - 8,000 people die of seasonal flu on a population of 17 million people. These are mainly elderly and vulnerable people. to date, I think the number of officially reported illnesses in China (which has a population of over a billion people) is around 6,000, with under 150 or so deaths. Of course it is still early days, but so far this feels very much like a storm in a tea cup.

Of course you can never be too careful, especially with these types of diseases where there is a long incubation period where it can already have spread quite far before individuals start showing signs of infection. It is definitely concerning that there is now apparently human to human transfer (which was not really the case with SARS). nevertheless, so far it appears that as long as you are in relatively good health, your immune system should easily be able to fight it of and you should have bigger concerns for things like influenza. But you don't see people stockpiling face masks for that every year.

Just ensure good personal hygiene, wash your hands regularly, and most likely it will be fine.

Until we find it is the Big Bug and China has been lying to us about their death toll. But hey, paranoia is an unhealthy lifestyle.

[D'rek]

The "invisible" incubation period is bad, yes, but it doesn't sound like this virus is especially contagious nor especially deadly? CDC is saying many get only mild flu-like symptoms and preventative measures so far are just basic hand-washing and avoid interaction stuff. It's cold comfort for any infant, elderly, or immuno-compromised person that catches it, obviously, but this doesn't seem like it's on a bubonic plague level of spread or of symptoms. I don't think it will ever make a real foothold in places with solid healthcare systems, and even if it did I don't think it will do much damage to the healthy adult population.

QuickTidal, on 29 January 2020 - 04:01 PM, said:

The good thing I always try to remember about these viruses is that they are NOT trying to kill us. They want to live in us as a symbiotic host (not that such a thing is GOOD either). The deaths that they cause are a result of the host body not being able to handle the infection (which is why older people and people with pre-existing health issues seem to be the ones dying).

That's how mild diseases like the common cold work, hence how they almost never kill humans, even weaker humans. But coronaviruses evolved to be mild diseases like that for non-humans, and when they jump species to humans what was mild for a chicken might be far worse for us. SARS and (certain strains of) Ebola are both very mild viruses in certain bats before jumping to humans. Same sort of thing for bubonic plague, typhus, measles, and many other plagues.

[Aptorian]

I think the Corona virus is our best solution to the current climate crisis. Go do your thing little viruses!

On a more serious note, from what I've read, this is no different than the other virus outbreaks we've seen. And also less dangerous, relative to other outbreaks. In the end the medical industry will earn a mountain of money selling a bunch of vaccinations to the world's governments that probably don't even work.

This post has been edited by Aptorian: 29 January 2020 - 04:41 PM

[QuickTidal]

I think a part of my extra concern comes from having two little ones, one who is only 1+ and the fact that their immune systems may not be built to handle for a respiratory infection like this yet. But Canada has top rate health system to fall back on so that tempers my concern somewhat. My MIL is also terminally ill and something like this would kill her.

[Gorefest]

Plus, unless you live in a highly populated area, there isn't that much chance of encountering it anyway. Also, we don't even know how the virus will be have in a different climate zone. I have never been, but purely based on geographical latitude I imagine that large areas of Canada are a lot colder than China.

[edit]To be fair, that could be a good thing or a bad thing.

This post has been edited by Gorefest: 29 January 2020 - 04:50 PM

[QuickTidal]

Gorefest, on 29 January 2020 - 04:49 PM, said:

Plus, unless you live in a highly populated area, there isn't that much chance of encountering it anyway.

I live in a highly populated area. One of the most populated in the country. Right downtown.




Here is a good tweet stream which talks about terminology being used like R0, which is merely for education about something I've never heard of before. Interesting!

[Cause]

Canada along with Greenland are some of the harder countries to infect!

Those N95 masks are tricky, do you have a beard? You will need to shave. Also uncomfortable for long periods of time.

This virus is scary if what China says about it being infectious during the incubation period is true but frankly that’s hard to accept as true until they provide more details. It goes against what I know. The incubation period is when your viral load is so low you don’t have symptoms yet, so how can you be infecting other people. However if it’s true it means quarantines will be hard to maintain, you will have to trap the healthy in with the sick.

The other thing that I think is important to remember is health care has come a long way and just as importantly at least for many of the luckier countries is that the average human being today is healthier today than say during the Black Death. The bubonic plague still has outbreaks today but besides being easily treatable you stand a very good chance of surviving the disease today even though it killed half of Europe once.

[Macros]

The last true pandemic was the Spanish flu after ww1 wasn't it?

Many factors in that as well, nutrition and general health being well down after 4 years of rationing and war

[Vengeance]

Macros, on 29 January 2020 - 06:26 PM, said:

The last true pandemic was the Spanish flu after ww1 wasn't it?

Many factors in that as well, nutrition and general health being well down after 4 years of rationing and war

Yes and that killed an estimated 100+ million. Estimated because in places entire towns were dead and so bulldozed and buried.

[Kanese S's]

China apparently built a new hospital in under a week just to deal with it, and closed down the entire city of Wuhan.
The Hong Kong protesters just firebombed a hospital that was under construction there.

[Cause]

Built a hospital in a week? Can I get that construction companies number?

[Malankazooie]

I would not piss off Zhang Weili. I've seen her destroy opponents and in the octagon she is scary af. I wouldn't want her to take her time to make the punishment and beating last longer because she wants to teach me a lesson.

UFC fighter Joanna Jedrzejczyk makes fun of Chinese fighter Zhang Weili about coronavirus

[Kanese S's]

Cause, on 29 January 2020 - 09:08 PM, said:

Built a hospital in a week? Can I get that construction companies number?

Pretty sure it's just the CPC.

https://www.business...n-6-days-2020-1

This post has been edited by Kanese S's: 29 January 2020 - 09:58 PM

[Lady Bliss]

As I predicted, racism against Asians has spiked over the virus. I’m just surprised it is being reported in France first.

https://www.bbc.com/...europe-51294305

[Abyss]

Lady Bliss, on 30 January 2020 - 04:21 AM, said:

As I predicted, racism against Asians has spiked over the virus. I’m just surprised it is being reported in France first.

https://www.bbc.com/...europe-51294305

Was in twitter earlier this week for the US and Canada that I saw.
Such stupid.

[Mezla PigDog]

This virus is completely normal for a new coronovirus. No reason to be concerned as a healthy adult. Apparently it's not affecting children badly either. Of course now that it is spreading more widely it could mutate and become highly virulent - the statistical likelihood increases the more cases there are. But it is still all just stats and "maybes" until it isn't and we're all dead. No point worrying about it, you would never leave the house.

WWI Spanish flu was particularly deadly as it killed "healthy" adults due to a healthy immune system going into overdrive to fight it which can cause organ failure. That factor is needed for a true pandemic flu / coronavirus / rhinovirus / herpes-simplex virus / parainfluenza. There are a shit load of these things.

Apparently the cross over of zoonotic viruses into humans is becoming more common because we are invading habitats we have never been in before due to deforestation etc. So we are increasing our chances of doomsday all the time. No point worrying about it.

Fortify your basement and buy canned goods.