[Mezla PigDog]

No the data at the moment says it is more deadly than the current seasonal flu strain. It also suggests that it doesn't seem to affect children particularly badly. It's the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions that are most at risk. This is the same at risk cohort for seasonal flu but we don't panic over seasonal flu due to the availability of the vaccine.

However the Chinese hospitals have been so overwhelmed that I don't think we have accurate data. It will become more clear now the virus is in Europe - we already know that those who died in Italy were all elderly. Similar information wasn't coming out of China early on before they became overwhelmed. It's definitely worse than flu but less bad than SARS and MERS for mortality rate though. And I think the mortality rate will be dialled down with more accurate data but have no clue how far down.

This post has been edited by Mezla PigDog: 26 February 2020 - 05:06 PM

[Traveller]

Got 'fit tested' for mask at work today. It's being taken pretty seriously, but the measures that are being put in place wont last a week - mainly because they just don't have the quantities of protective gear that would be required if this was a really serious virus.

I bet the company that makes the masks, 3M, is absolutely laughing at the moment.

This post has been edited by Traveller: 26 February 2020 - 05:06 PM

[Gorefest]

Obdigore, on 26 February 2020 - 04:03 PM, said:

[I'm by no means a doctor, immunologist, or anything else in that field, but my understanding is that this is almost exactly as deadly as the 'common flu', but we have vaccines for the at risk population for that strain, and nothing for the Coronavirus, which is why it's death toll is deadlier, the elderly and young are getting hit hard.

Is that correct? I know some of you have much more advanced medical training/knowledge than I do.

At present COVID-19 is quite a bit deadlier than the seasonal flu. Common flu on average kills a bit under 1 in 1,000 people, whereas COVID-19 so far has a reported kill rate of around 1 in 40. However, as Mezla alluded to earlier, these numbers are very premature as there may be a large number of unreported or misdiagnosed cases which are not taken along in the survival count. Plus, as you said, a lot of vulnerable people currently are routinely vaccinated against the seasonal flu, which will massively drive down the influenza death rate (the CFR number, or 'case-fatality rate'). An effective vaccination strategy against COVID-19 probably won't be available for at least another 12-18 months, unless they happen to find that existing vaccines for other pathogens are effective against COVID-19 as well. Which sadly is highly unlikely, although there were some suggestions that generic anti-virals might have some protective effect.

[Mezla PigDog]

3M are in a lot more of your life than you could possibly know. They are one of those companies that do a bit of everything once you know where to look.

Glad they are getting prepared for the NHS though - I trust PHE on these kind of things but don't trust the government to give you the appropriate foundations to be able to actually cope!

[Gorefest]

Traveller, on 26 February 2020 - 05:05 PM, said:

Got 'fit tested' for mask at work today. It's being taken pretty seriously, but the measures that are being put in place wont last a week - mainly because they just don't have the quantities of protective gear that would be required if this was a really serious virus.

I bet the company that makes the masks, 3M, is absolutely laughing at the moment.

The effectiveness of masks for protection is overrated anyway. You only really need masks if you are in a populated area with confirmed infection cases and/or in direct contact with contaminated individuals. Furthermore, you will need a mask that is at least FFP3 level or else it won't do you much good anyway. In most cases, good personal hygiene (washing your hands regularly, shield your coughs, etc) will do the trick just fine.

[Cause]

I think the death toll is 0.2% for most age groups 50 and below and spikes to about 10-20 when you start looking at 60 year olds and higher. The data I saw seemed to indicates that deaths before age ten are almost non existant.

Not quite an extinction level event. I think the response will continue to ramp up and we will have to see where we are in a months time, 3 months etc.

[Garak]

I just wish the media would dial it down a bit. They've worked people into panic and hysteria. They've actually played footage of Italians in masks buying provisions while playing some doomsday sounding soundtrack. Seriously what the fuck.

[Malankazooie]

Oh boy, this has been a pop-a-loppin' all over people's favorite digital distractions / productivity killers.


More reprehensible in my view, and it's been popular for awhile now, is the stupid hard cider / flavored seltzer trend.

[Macros]

This was a genuine thought I had yesterday.

People of the world are so stupid. And I mean SO stupid, I wouldnt be surprised to hear Corona sales have dropped because of the virus

[Aptorian]

What happens after you've had the virus? Do you get immune until it mutates again?

In other news, the Virus has arrived in Denmark and naturally the media are ramping up the fear.

I think I'm going to buy 5 kgs of rice and a bunch of canned vegetables and meat just to be safe. Not safe from the virus but safe from the idiots who start raiding supermarkets and hoarding every single food item they can get their hands on because they think the world is ending.

[Mezla PigDog]

Garak, on 27 February 2020 - 07:52 AM, said:

I just wish the media would dial it down a bit. They've worked people into panic and hysteria. They've actually played footage of Italians in masks buying provisions while playing some doomsday sounding soundtrack. Seriously what the fuck.

Hell yes. I was watching the news last night and they were talking about whether the UK should close schools if it gets worse. We have had no onward transmission in the UK yet so it isn't even remotely out of control. The governments plan is not to close schools even if gets worse. Based on data school closures will only delay the peak of a pandemic by 2 weeks. So why was the tone of the report critical of the plan? Surely nobody even wants schools to close because then parents will have to be off work. But now because of the media everyone is talking about schools closing - either worrying it will happen and they will have to stay off work without pay or worrying it won't happen and their kids will get sick.

I'm sure if things got worse they would revisit all of these plans. Hell if it was a true pandemic in this country there wouldn't be enough healthy teachers to keep schools open anyway. But there is no evidence yet to say they need to so why go on about it.

[Maark Abbott]

Mezla PigDog, on 28 February 2020 - 07:53 AM, said:

But there is no evidence yet to say they need to so why go on about it.

Fear benefits those in power. It was ever thus.

[Macros]

From Metro (I know I know):

"Last month Google said that searches for Corona lager had increased by 1,100 per cent with people looking for ‘beer virus’ and ‘corona beer virus’.

There is no link between coronavirus and Corona lager."


Sales down 10%

[Garak]

They are taking interviews in small communities here, asking if they'd be OK with an isolation camp being built there. People react with "hell no, then we get sick and die. Keep them away from us". Christian spirit in action at its finest.

Others say the new liberal government should have closed the borders. That they didn't at the command of their euro masters who want us all dead.

So yes, people are morons.

[Macros]

Why couldn't the Chinese have engineered a virus that targets stupid people?

[Mezla PigDog]

If that technology existed you know it would already have been used to target [insert marginalised person type of choice here] people.

I'm presenting at an international meeting in London on Tuesday. I predict either it's going to be cancelled or none of our clients will turn up. Or worse - it goes ahead and I have to spend the next 2 weeks self quarantined with a 3 year old over my birthday!

[Cause]

Aptorian, on 28 February 2020 - 07:50 AM, said:

What happens after you've had the virus? Do you get immune until it mutates again?

Pretty much. It’s like being vaccinated only with the real thing. Your body will have defeated the virus by developing white blood cells which produce antibodies specifically tailored against the viruses. Getting reinfected is unlikely as your body would recognize the small amount of virus the second time around and trigger the now much more effective immune response against it.

Good news is I don’t think coronaciruses are known for rapid mutations. Though like with swine flu, avian flu etc this novel virus is caused by genetic crossover inside an animal that created a new deadlier strain that is able to jump to humans.

[Tiste Simeon]

Macros, on 28 February 2020 - 12:58 PM, said:

Why couldn't the Chinese have engineered a virus that targets stupid people?

See that's what worries me personally...

[Malankazooie]

Talked to one of my sisters about this for the first time and she is beside herself with worry. She is one of those "everything is a calamity in my life" types. I don't want to say she is a verifiable hypochondriac, but she definitely makes into a mountain what most average folk consider a mole hill. Example - she'll get the common 24hr head-cold, with typical sniffles and maybe (operative word maybe) low grade fever and be convinced she has the flu. The rest of the family thinks she is this way to get attention, but yeah, she's borderline freaking out about coronavirus, especially when she read this news.

First coronavirus case of unknown origin confirmed in US. What does that mean?

[Aptorian]

Malankazooie, on 28 February 2020 - 06:32 PM, said:

First coronavirus case of unknown origin confirmed in US. What does that mean?

Life Death... Uh, finds a way.