[Gait]

Barghast, on 20 August 2019 - 11:42 AM, said:

@Gait: of course it's speculation. What is not speculation at this stage? Only concrete facts we have are voting patterns (so, trains) and CFs.

We also have people's behaviour. Which is far more concrete than "I think that hypothetically scum would want one person on the train and one person off it for... reasons".

[Barghast]

Behavior is not concrete, it's a matter of interpretation. Votes and trains are facts. But that's an academic point and I guess we can agree to disagree.

[Barghast]

Also, I haven't yet had the chance today to take a good look at Gait, but this conversation feels off. Looking at lynch trains is very basic Mafia tactic, yet Gait seems strongly opposed... and they have been on both trains.

Scared much?

[Gait]

Barghast, on 20 August 2019 - 12:15 PM, said:

Behavior is not concrete, it's a matter of interpretation. Votes and trains are facts. But that's an academic point and I guess we can agree to disagree.

I agree that votes and trains are facts, but "I believe scum would prefer to be sitting in X position relative to the train" is a matter of interpretation. There are more concrete ways to look at voting behaviour; it's this super abstract theoretical approach that bugs me.

[Barghast]

Where have I mentioned position on the train? The only thing I referred to was the binary: someone either was or wasn't on a train.

D1 and D2 had trains. There are three players who have been on both: you, Shel, and Venesara. I brought this up when Prazec said we should find some common ground because we're all over the place. This seems to me like an obvious choice.

EDIT
Punctuation.

This post has been edited by Barghast: 20 August 2019 - 12:31 PM

[Gait]

Barghast, on 20 August 2019 - 12:23 PM, said:

Also, I haven't yet had the chance today to take a good look at Gait, but this conversation feels off. Looking at lynch trains is very basic Mafia tactic, yet Gait seems strongly opposed... and they have been on both trains.

Scared much?

It's literally the same opinion I gave Shel when he asked:

Gait, on 16 August 2019 - 01:11 PM, said:

For the first question I don't think there's anything concrete enough at this stage. Half the game were on the train, so there's a fair chance. But train analysis tends to be much more useful after we actually hit scum; before that it's basically abstract speculation on where scum might or might not theoretically prefer to be. In this case it's also complicated by GL's self-vote and Rikkter's early hammer. I don't like to pigeonhole my thoughts by deciding where scum might be based on theory rather than the thread, basically.

[...]

I also don't like the abstract theorizing about scum behaviour (as per the start of this post). I don't see that it really helps town putting it on thread and I don't like that it looks to direct us in a specific direction based ultimately on pure speculation.

I have nothing against looking at people's voting behaviour. It can be useful, and I've been looking at it myself. But to me there's a big distinction between looking at people's voting behaviour in a concrete way (for example, me asking PG why he wasn't voting alongside his accusations earlier in the game) and trying to prompt town to narrow our suspicions down based on nothing but abstract hypotheticals about scum behaviour.

[Gait]

Barghast, on 20 August 2019 - 12:30 PM, said:

Where have I mentioned position on the train? The only thing I referred to was the binary: someone either was or wasn't on a train.

D1 and D2 had trains. There are three players who have been on both: you, Shel, and Venesara. I brought this up when Prazec said we should find some common ground because we're all over the place. This seems to me like an obvious choice.

EDIT
Punctuation.

Why? The assumption that scum would be on both trains is no more plausible than the assumption that they would take turns or that they would be on neither. Or that the speed of the second lynch didn't give them a chance to be where they would like. Or...

It's all so hypothetical. And it's future-looking. I don't like it at all.

[Gamelon]

Kilava and Barghast, or Kilava and Gait. Well, common denominator it is Kilava.

Vote Kilava

These are my three suspects, and I’m finding it most hard to see a Barghast-Gait connection out of the possible permutations, but I could be wrong about that. So that’s why I’m voting the way I am. I’ve already stated that I won’t be considering the others today, either because they are PI for me, or I just don’t see much as scummy about them.

My plane is literally about to take off, so I won’t be around anymore I’m afraid.

[Gait]

(Also I consider on/off as positions; I wasn't meaning to suggest you'd said "I think scum will be person number X on the train", although it's about as concrete...)

[Gait]

Barg if you want vote analysis, how's this:

Currently you have two votes and Shel has three. Gamelon could have put you at parity with Shel. You have been named one of Gamelon's main three suspects. So why is he instead dropping his vote on someone with zero votes with three hours left in the day?

This absolutely stinks.

Remove vote

[Prazec Goul]

Gamelon leaving out Shel again.

[Prazec Goul]

Gamelon, on 20 August 2019 - 12:41 PM, said:

Kilava and Barghast, or Kilava and Gait. Well, common denominator it is Kilava.

Vote Kilava

These are my three suspects, and I'm finding it most hard to see a Barghast-Gait connection out of the possible permutations, but I could be wrong about that. So that's why I'm voting the way I am. I've already stated that I won't be considering the others today, either because they are PI for me, or I just don't see much as scummy about them.

My plane is literally about to take off, so I won't be around anymore I'm afraid.

This stinks.

[Barghast]

Gait, on 20 August 2019 - 12:40 PM, said:

Barghast, on 20 August 2019 - 12:30 PM, said:

Where have I mentioned position on the train? The only thing I referred to was the binary: someone either was or wasn't on a train.

D1 and D2 had trains. There are three players who have been on both: you, Shel, and Venesara. I brought this up when Prazec said we should find some common ground because we're all over the place. This seems to me like an obvious choice.

EDIT
Punctuation.

Why? The assumption that scum would be on both trains is no more plausible than the assumption that they would take turns or that they would be on neither. Or that the speed of the second lynch didn't give them a chance to be where they would like. Or...

It's all so hypothetical. And it's future-looking. I don't like it at all.

Frankly, I don't get your point. Of course it's hypothetical. Of course it's an assumption. The only time you play Mafia without assuming and relying on hypothesis is when you're scum, becasue you already have the information. Accusing someone of making assumptions in a Mafia game is weird.

And yes, I do find the assumption that there was scum on the Galayn train plausible. Was there scum on both trains? Maybe, I'd say both is more likely than neither. We can argue about merits of that assumption for infinity, but I agree with what Prazec said earlier - we need to find some common ground, because we're 3-4 hours from timeout and 8 votes are spread across 5 players.

Looking at lynch trains is one such common ground. Another thing we can do is choose from two most popular targets today: Shel or me. Same difference for me because both angles take me to a Sheltatha vote, but one way or another we need to move forward.

[Barghast]

X-posted with a couple of messages above.

Gait, on 20 August 2019 - 12:50 PM, said:

Barg if you want vote analysis, how's this:

Currently you have two votes and Shel has three. Gamelon could have put you at parity with Shel. You have been named one of Gamelon's main three suspects. So why is he instead dropping his vote on someone with zero votes with three hours left in the day?

This absolutely stinks.

Remove vote

You're asking me a question about Gamelon's motivations. What do you expect me to say?

It's another drive-by vote by Gam and I'm comfortable switching to them if we have enough votes to lynch.

remove vote

vote Gamelon

[Gait]

Not only that, but he could have easily voted hours ago. Instead he drives by just as he's disappearing.

[Prazec Goul]

It stinks more because of the time left in day and the two main suspects. Gamelon leaving off Shel like we should "look" there instead of at Barg?




I think Gamelon may be the best lynch for today for doing that.

[Gait]

Barghast, on 20 August 2019 - 12:54 PM, said:

Gait, on 20 August 2019 - 12:40 PM, said:

Barghast, on 20 August 2019 - 12:30 PM, said:

Where have I mentioned position on the train? The only thing I referred to was the binary: someone either was or wasn't on a train.

D1 and D2 had trains. There are three players who have been on both: you, Shel, and Venesara. I brought this up when Prazec said we should find some common ground because we're all over the place. This seems to me like an obvious choice.

EDIT
Punctuation.

Why? The assumption that scum would be on both trains is no more plausible than the assumption that they would take turns or that they would be on neither. Or that the speed of the second lynch didn't give them a chance to be where they would like. Or...

It's all so hypothetical. And it's future-looking. I don't like it at all.

Frankly, I don't get your point. Of course it's hypothetical. Of course it's an assumption. The only time you play Mafia without assuming and relying on hypothesis is when you're scum, becasue you already have the information. Accusing someone of making assumptions in a Mafia game is weird.

It's what you do with the assumptions I dislike. Pushing for "there's scum somewhere amongst this group" just sets up future lynches. When you say "follow the train tracks" all I can think is "railroadinng".

[Barghast]

Solid pun

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 3. 2 hours and 59 minutes remaining
8 Players still alive: Barghast, Gait, Gamelon, Kilava, Prazec Goul, Rikkter, Sheltatha Lore, Venesara

5 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night.

1 Vote for Sheltatha Lore ( Prazec Goul )
1 Vote for Kilava ( Gamelon )
2 Votes for Barghast ( Sheltatha Lore, Kilava )
2 Votes for Gamelon ( Venesara, Barghast )
1 Vote for Prazec Goul ( Rikkter )

Players not voted: Gait

[Prazec Goul]

I want to vote Gamelon, but I also want to know what Shelly meant by his "reveal"