[Nicodimas]

amphibian, on 12 October 2023 - 12:16 AM, said:

The Israeli state has imposed what's functionally an open air prison on the Palestinians and violently repressed them for generations at this point.

The indiscriminate murder of civilians by Hamas and others is also horrible because it's not ethical even within the context delivered right to violent resistance of that oppression by the Israeli state.

It's all bad right now and bringing in North Korea etc doesn't help anything, even if it's the product of just whimsy riffing on things. Simmer down, y'all.

Amphibian what's your thoughts on Hamas rejecting the two state solution ? Peace is always at the best interest of all obviously and ratcheting up with more war is and could sprawl. Yet here we are..no water and power. A ground raid next is going to be a massacre against a physically weak and exhausted population with far more superior weapons.

I could discuss this in greater detail, but logically we have to deduce lots of hate all around right. Israel isn't going anywhere and Palestine people should be its own free state ..especially as Americans we should always believe this.

Make it known I don't support Hamas itself.. just like I don't support the oppressive Israeli actions over the decades. Both have committed war crimes and at point you have to logically come across it doesn't get you anywhere. War though very very much is a human invention too.

We could talk all about movement of people, but moving mass groups of people I think historical speaking lands toward lots of people getting killed and abused.Then they would be a subclass of people where they land. Never good to be poor and less rights anywhere .Then the counterpoint is the landing country never needs a mass influx of people unless they volunteer to take them in right ?

A physical corridor out of this area where the innocent could flee would be a start with food/water.

I'm opposed to the total war solution as this will more than likely open more fronts and backlash.

This post has been edited by Nicodimas: 12 October 2023 - 03:16 AM

[amphibian]

I'd say go read this article with your monthly freebie and see a better way to evaluate all of this.

https://www.newyorke...-goes-from-here

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Egypt says Israel seeks to empty Gaza, rejects corridors for civilians

[...] will allow aid to be delivered through its border to Gaza after closing it to civilians fleeing the war.

Gaza, a coastal strip of land wedged between Israel in the north and east and Egypt to the southwest [...]

[...] Egypt has long restricted the flow of Gaza Palestinians onto its territory, even during the fiercest conflicts.

Egypt says Israel seeks to empty Gaza, rejects corridors for civilians | Israel-Palestine conflict News | Al Jazeera

Quote

[The attack has] united the diverse and quarreling [Israeli] political landscape, with many now seeking a permanent solution to Hamas. For many, this means removing the group entirely from [...] Gaza. [...]

[...] permanent diminution of Hamas[...] requires not just going in but staying back and reoccupying the strip.

[...] Israel unilaterally decided to evacuate the strip in 2005[...]

[...] To find and destroy capabilities not in sight and to decimate the leadership, the IDF would need to [...] scour each neighborhood, every single home, in the highly contested strip. [...]

[...] to make sure Hamas does not manufacture weapons in the future, the IDF would have to remain in Gaza. Hamas has, time and again, proved that it can adapt and build rockets in local workshops with products in daily use. [...]

[...] it's safe to assume that this time Israel isn't bluffing. [...] Some of [Hamas's] leaders are already in Lebanon and Qatar, and the group in the past has also operated from Turkey. More of its members might now be planning an escape as Israel's counteroffensive intensifies.

Can Israel actually destroy Hamas? (slate.com)

Not sure exactly how Hamas's leaders might manage to escape.

Most Palestinians have been trapped between Israel and Egypt and provided with limited resources (now largely cut off by the Israeli blockades on food, water, etc. in response to the attack), but Israeli forces evacuated from Gaza in 2005 (though they still have spy networks there), so it's far from being a literal prison state, open-air or otherwise. That's probably going to change as Israel invades and institutes a more draconian military occupation than what had been in place from 1967 to 2005.

Large, successful attacks may eventually topple some right-wing leaders in Israel, but others will take their place---just as the retaliatory attacks against Hamas may kill the leaders responsible only for others to take their place. The threat of terrorism helps the Israeli far right politically, so the military occupation might be draconian enough to prevent large-scale attacks, but not so total that it prevents the plotting and preparation of terrorist acts (to be foiled and then publicized) or smaller acts of attempted terrorism. (Of course this is reprehensible....)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 12 October 2023 - 01:57 PM

[Abyss]

Hamas' entire raison d'etre is to fight Israel. They aren't there because of their deep abiding care for the safety and health and future of the Palestinian people. They strike, they bail, they leave civilians to suffer, then recruit from the survivors. It is an old, old tactic they've been at for decades and it works bcs there is no world where Israel responds by backing down. They can't because to show 'weakness' to Hamas is to open the door to strikes from groups operating out of out of every compass point around them, some w foreign gov support.

The cycle could have broken. There was a huge movement - including within Israel - towards support for Palestinian people and against the Israeli gov. A few more years to displace Netanyahu's pro settlement gov and there could have been real change. Hamas just murdered that too. They didn't attack because of Israel doing what Israel has been doing for years... they struck because that was likely to end in the foreseeable future.

[HoosierDaddy]

Trying separate Hamas' Islamist "Israel shouldn't exist" views and a legitimate political conflict for self-sovereignty is very difficult. It muddles my entire picture of who I can most empathize with. It feels like the two driving actors in this are at the broad-end of the political spectrum and are ultimately the prism through which the conflict is viewed.

I enjoyed the article that Amph posted. I wanted to get some background on the person who was being interviewed, as most of my media comes with an obvious western bias, so I wanted to see if this was a middle-eastern bias. And, I don't think it is. I think it's an honest appraisal that is by necessity harsh about Israeli motivations and actions and what helps drive the conflict.

Abyss brings up the "cycle could have been broken", but as long as the primary actors are driving the conversation and action surrounding it, I don't see how that happens.

Hamas had obviously been planning this for a long time, so it's not like it was acting on relatively recent Israeli political tumult. And this plays perfectly to the hard-right Israelis, who now have an excuse for barbarism that implicitly okays what it was previously doing with the Palestinians and that is evidently okay with most of the western world.

Hard for room at the table for the adults who genuinely seek something that could end the violence when both primary actors are ran by people who primary political goal is driven by violent means.

[Abyss]

Good point. What most people refer to as 'Hamas' is a collection of groups, some of who are/were as busy fighting each other as they were vs Israel.

[amphibian]

The way Netanyahu's government coalition formed after close to 5 years of the liberal Israeli parties refusing to work with his right wing party is also a driver of this.

The current government coalition is correctly called the most right wing in Israeli history. It's because the populace in Israel have mostly suppressed the Arab vote, the conservatives/settlers are having tons of kids and inching up in political power, and the liberals didn't run good candidates, and about 70% of total eligible Israeli voters went to the polls - most went hard right wing.

I put that New Yorker article with Tareq Baconi because it was so refreshing in terms of being a good summary and viewpoint without having a near-rabid slant to it. This part really jumped out at me as the description of what was and why this change was so unexpected and resulted in brutality.

"It quickly became clear that Hamas was actually a good partner for Israel in the sense that it was able to stabilize the Gaza Strip and it provided the perfect fig leaf for the Israelis to justify their blockade. No one could really question why Israel had such an inhumane blockade. And so Hamas became a very good interlocutor. It was a violent equilibrium. Each party accepted the position of the other.

Whenever an Israeli domestic issue needed to be deflected, or Hamas needed to deflect challenges in the Gaza Strip, there could be a configuration or some kind of escalation between them. But it would always come back to a ceasefire. And, from the Israeli perspective, in a way similar to how it deals with the rest of the Palestinians, there was no strategy. There was really just a decision to manage the occupation, to manage the status quo. And so it never really had to deal with Hamas or Hamas’s political drivers. Israel thought that it could contain Hamas in the Gaza Strip and allow it to stabilize the area, and then it was out of sight, out of mind."

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

amphibian, on 12 October 2023 - 04:12 PM, said:

The way Netanyahu's government coalition formed after close to 5 years of the liberal Israeli parties refusing to work with his right wing party is also a driver of this.

The current government coalition is correctly called the most right wing in Israeli history. It's because the populace in Israel have mostly suppressed the Arab vote, the conservatives/settlers are having tons of kids and inching up in political power, and the liberals didn't run good candidates, and about 70% of total eligible Israeli voters went to the polls - most went hard right wing.

I put that New Yorker article with Tareq Baconi because it was so refreshing in terms of being a good summary and viewpoint without having a near-rabid slant to it. This part really jumped out at me as the description of what was and why this change was so unexpected and resulted in brutality.

"It quickly became clear that Hamas was actually a good partner for Israel in the sense that it was able to stabilize the Gaza Strip and it provided the perfect fig leaf for the Israelis to justify their blockade. No one could really question why Israel had such an inhumane blockade. And so Hamas became a very good interlocutor. It was a violent equilibrium. Each party accepted the position of the other.

Whenever an Israeli domestic issue needed to be deflected, or Hamas needed to deflect challenges in the Gaza Strip, there could be a configuration or some kind of escalation between them. But it would always come back to a ceasefire. And, from the Israeli perspective, in a way similar to how it deals with the rest of the Palestinians, there was no strategy. There was really just a decision to manage the occupation, to manage the status quo. And so it never really had to deal with Hamas or Hamas's political drivers. Israel thought that it could contain Hamas in the Gaza Strip and allow it to stabilize the area, and then it was out of sight, out of mind."

In the near term, the emergency unity government should hopefully moderate Israel's actions at least somewhat, though Gallant's reference to 'human animals' is extremely troubling:

Quote

Gantz—as well as other opposition leaders—decided to put nation above party. [...]

Gantz demanded—and Netanyahu ultimately agreed—that all decisions about the war would be deliberated by a small emergency cabinet consisting only of those two men and the current defense minister, Yoav Gallant. This will exclude the other cabinet members in Israel's governing coalition, all of whom are to the right of Netanyahu and, therefore, are distrusted by half of the country. (Gallant announced the "complete siege" of Gaza over the weekend, declaring, "We are fighting human animals, and we are acting accordingly.")

The two men also agreed that, for as long as the war lasts, the Knesset, Israel's parliament, will not consider any legislation unrelated to the war. [...]

[...] "The main thing [Gantz] brings is credibility and rationality." His presence "will strengthen the argument that, whatever the Israelis do in Gaza, it will be based on national interests, not on Bibi's personal political interests."

[...] during his time as the army's chief of staff, "[Gantz] was among the generals that pushed back against Bibi taking direct military action against Iran. That suggests to me that he will caution Bibi against widening the conflict before the situation in Gaza is resolved."

This is particularly important, as danger signs of a widening war are flashing—not yet brightly or accompanied by loud sirens, but bright enough to raise concerns. [...] if [Hezbollah] decided to enter the war full-bore, they could unleash catastrophic damage. If they do enter the war, it would almost certainly be on the orders—or with the active encouragement—of their patrons in Iran. And that would mean a widening of the war not only in Israel but across the entire region, probably including the United States.

[...] Biden has sent two aircraft carrier task forces into the region[...] to deter Hezbollah, Syria, or Iran from getting involved in the war. If they ignore the deterrent and intervene anyway, Biden may feel compelled to carry out the threat and attack one or all three of them directly.

War in Israel: Benjamin Netanyahu's power-sharing government could keep a broader war at bay. (slate.com)

Quote

Gantz leads a mostly center-left bloc, but is not a man of the left. He did not enter politics originally with a vehemently anti-Netanyahu stance, and he reportedly considered joining forces with Netanyahu before entering.

Gantz is truly a centrist in Israeli terms, and a man of common ground, not cutthroat ambition.

In Israel, Benny Gantz decides to join with rival Netanyahu | Brookings

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 12 October 2023 - 05:53 PM

[Chance]

One thing I think is kind of crazy with it all is how many people must have known what was being planned. Tens of thousands of people must have at least silently condoned the actions which is monstrous to my mind.

Not saying Israel is in the right to do whatever they want. Personally I find their rightwing-religiousness more than a bit offputting, not to speak about their treatment of the kind of Palestinian who isn't a terrorist. But this really is pretty much equal to what drove the US into Afghanistan. Personally I'd be surprised if the amount of damage to Gaza, southern Libanon and select expensive infrastructure in Iran is much less than what the US did in its retaliatory wars.

This post has been edited by Chance: 12 October 2023 - 05:55 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

[Netanyahu] shared graphic photos of murdered and burned babies on his official X account following claims some babies were beheaded by Hamas [...]

[...] “Hamas is inhuman. [...]” [he] captioned [them ...]

The Jerusalem Post [...] said it could confirm “the reports of babies being burnt and decapitated in Hamas’s assault [...]” after seeing “verified photos of the bodies.”

Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu Shares Grisly Photos of Babies Killed and Burned (thedailybeast.com)

No human is 'inhuman', though he did specify 'Hamas'. Dehumanizing language rationalizes war crimes---that are being committed not just against Hamas but against the Palestinian people. The Israeli attempt to prevent Gaza from receiving water, food, and fuel, while also bombing the Rafah crossing (the entryway for supplies from Egypt, preventing Egypt from providing them), constitutes a war crime:

Quote

An Israeli minister said [...] the authorities will not restore power or allow water or fuel to enter until Hamas releases hostages. This is an explicit confirmation that these acts have been taken to punish civilians in Gaza for the actions of Palestinian armed groups.

[...] repeated attacks on the Rafah border crossing [which have been preventing humanitarian aid from being provided by Egypt]

Israel must lift illegal and inhumane blockade on Gaza - Amnesty International

And Israel is also burning babies---with bombs. Death from a direct hit may be relatively swift, but I'd guess that many also die more slowly in the ensuing fires.

Quote

two men were killed by Israeli settlers [in the West Bank] while attending a funeral for several Palestinians [...]

Video of the incident shows a car of Israeli settlers swerving into the path of the funeral possession before stopping and spraying the mourners with bullets.

Israeli Settlers Gun Down Father and Son at Funeral as Violence Spreads to West Bank (thedailybeast.com)

[Werthead]

Azath Vitr (D, on 12 October 2023 - 12:17 PM, said:

Not sure exactly how Hamas's leaders might manage to escape.

By not being there. Most of Hamas's leadership is currently in Qatar, where they believed they would be safe. I would not be so sure about that and they might now be calculating scattering to safer climes. Exactly where, is unclear. If Israeli agents can blow up heavily-guarded Iranian nuclear scientists deep inside Iran, they can probably find the Hamas leaders anywhere. The only thing holding them back in Qatar was the somewhat odd relationship between Qatar and Israel's governments (Qatar broke off relations with Israel fourteen years ago but the two have an extensive list of back channels, including the diamond trade and the few times Israel has decided it needs contact with Hamas and Egypt isn't willing to help out). Right now, that is not a consideration.

[Lady Bliss]

How much is the Israel war going to impact our efforts in Ukraine? I can see Hamas getting some backing from Russia to get them to destabilize and pull funding on the war front. The trifecta would be if China decides that this is the best time to make a play at Taiwan.

[Chance]

Lady Bliss, on 13 October 2023 - 08:27 AM, said:

How much is the Israel war going to impact our efforts in Ukraine? I can see Hamas getting some backing from Russia to get them to destabilize and pull funding on the war front. The trifecta would be if China decides that this is the best time to make a play at Taiwan.

Probably not much, Israel has the stuff it needs to conduct a war. If it escalates and a few actual states become involved that could change.

The thought of China doing the stupid thing would be the icing on the cake however then Europe would probably have to take care of russia which isn't a sure thing mostly because of politics not capability.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Chance, on 13 October 2023 - 10:50 AM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 13 October 2023 - 08:27 AM, said:

How much is the Israel war going to impact our efforts in Ukraine? I can see Hamas getting some backing from Russia to get them to destabilize and pull funding on the war front. The trifecta would be if China decides that this is the best time to make a play at Taiwan.

Probably not much, Israel has the stuff it needs to conduct a war. If it escalates and a few actual states become involved that could change.

The thought of China doing the stupid thing would be the icing on the cake however then Europe would probably have to take care of russia which isn't a sure thing mostly because of politics not capability.

Russian funding would be very limited relative to what China could provide. With Chinese funding (perhaps even Chinese equipment) Iran and Hezbollah might feel more comfortable escalating the conflict with Israel to draw the United States into the war. Then China could invade Taiwan.

But they might want to wait until after the US presidential election. As I mentioned before, I think it's likely that China could strike a deal with Trump, who would brag about keeping us out of World War III (... and then maybe invade Mexico).

[Edit: other countries around the world might then also use the opportunity to take military action. World War Free-for-All ]

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 13 October 2023 - 12:05 PM

[Chance]

Azath Vitr (D, on 13 October 2023 - 11:46 AM, said:

[Edit: other countries around the world might then also use the opportunity to take military action. World War Free-for-All ]

While not exactly as easy to grasp as WW1 or WW2, if China went into Taiwan I think you could be speaking about a WW3 with autocracies in one corner and the relatively free world in the other. A lot of minor conflicts would also probably pop up as perceptions of the big states being "to busy" to act like world police could become rampart.

[Lady Bliss]

Azath Vitr (D, on 13 October 2023 - 11:46 AM, said:

Chance, on 13 October 2023 - 10:50 AM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 13 October 2023 - 08:27 AM, said:

How much is the Israel war going to impact our efforts in Ukraine? I can see Hamas getting some backing from Russia to get them to destabilize and pull funding on the war front. The trifecta would be if China decides that this is the best time to make a play at Taiwan.

Probably not much, Israel has the stuff it needs to conduct a war. If it escalates and a few actual states become involved that could change.

The thought of China doing the stupid thing would be the icing on the cake however then Europe would probably have to take care of russia which isn't a sure thing mostly because of politics not capability.

Russian funding would be very limited relative to what China could provide. With Chinese funding (perhaps even Chinese equipment) Iran and Hezbollah might feel more comfortable escalating the conflict with Israel to draw the United States into the war. Then China could invade Taiwan.

But they might want to wait until after the US presidential election. As I mentioned before, I think it's likely that China could strike a deal with Trump, who would brag about keeping us out of World War III (... and then maybe invade Mexico).

[Edit: other countries around the world might then also use the opportunity to take military action. World War Free-for-All ]

I think it’s not so much as cash funding as it could be a tit for tat thing with Iran. The Ukraine war has effectively been forgotten this last few days while attention turns to Israel.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Chance, on 13 October 2023 - 01:01 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 13 October 2023 - 11:46 AM, said:

[Edit: other countries around the world might then also use the opportunity to take military action. World War Free-for-All ]

While not exactly as easy to grasp as WW1 or WW2, if China went into Taiwan I think you could be speaking about a WW3 with autocracies in one corner and the relatively free world in the other. A lot of minor conflicts would also probably pop up as perceptions of the big states being "to busy" to act like world police could become rampart.

And the US under Trump might be one of those autocracies.... (Another possibility: China could make a deal with Trump to invade shortly before the election; Trump might then claim that only he can save Americans from having to be drafted or risking nuclear annihilation, and that we'd benefit much more from not getting involved. No doubt he'd also float ridiculous conspiracy theories to justify not trying to defend Taiwan.)

Early this morning one of my elderly relatives emailed me a warning about Hamas's call for a global 'Day of Rage'. My preferred left-leaning news sites---and CNN---apparently didn't bother reporting on it until after the terrorist attacks began.

Quote

Global Knife Attack Frenzy as Hamas 'Day of Rage' Gets Underway

Frenzied knife attacks were reported in China and France [...] after Hamas called for [Friday] the 13th to be a global "day of rage" [...]

[...] The call for a "day of rage" has prompted security alerts all over the world with Jewish schools and synagogues from Palo Alto to London and Aukland closing for the day while the American authorities increased security measures in major cities and at the U.S. Capitol.

Global Knife Attack Frenzy as Hamas ‘Day of Rage’ Gets Underway (thedailybeast.com)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 13 October 2023 - 01:34 PM

[amphibian]

This is spiraling into the absolutely not feasible. A nation state vs nation state war or invasion requires months of build up - and we saw that with Russia and Ukraine. China has not done that yet with Taiwan.

Now if we're talking 2026 or 2027, maybe. But that's well past the election.

I really urge the tamping down on the wild speculation.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

amphibian, on 13 October 2023 - 02:41 PM, said:

This is spiraling into the absolutely not feasible. A nation state vs nation state war or invasion requires months of build up - and we saw that with Russia and Ukraine. China has not done that yet with Taiwan.

Now if we're talking 2026 or 2027, maybe. But that's well past the election.

I really urge the tamping down on the wild speculation.

Quote

The risk of a world war that includes the US and China has risen to 50% [... according to the] founder of Bridgewater Associates — the world's largest hedge fund — and the author of "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail."

[...] he cautioned the US and China are "at the brink" of a so-called hot war — and the spread of the Israel-Hamas conflict could lead to the nations crossing the line into military combat.

The expert in global power shifts and historical cycles said [...] these types of fights are "more likely to spread than subside."

"If they spread to other countries, most importantly the major countries, there will be a much more horrific hot world war,"

Ray Dalio Sees 50% Chance of World War As Israel-Hamas Conflict Rages (businessinsider.com)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 13 October 2023 - 02:59 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

More to your point though:

Quote

Minihan, the leader of Air Mobility Command since 2021, reasons that due to the U.S. and Taiwanese elections in 2024, both governments would be distracted and give China a chance to seize the island.

[...] Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday in October [2022] warned that the service is preparing for the chance Chinese could attack Taiwan before 2024.

General's memo spurs debate: Could China invade Taiwan by 2025? | The Hill

Of course, it's still extremely unlikely. Though China might not need as much of a military buildup for preliminary pre-election attacks. But then they'd have to deal with several months of lame-duck Biden still supporting Taiwan....

Many commentators have argued that Israel's failure to foresee the 10/7 attack was partly a failure of imagination. (Of course, such imagination should be tempered with plausible, if highly unlikely, causal chains; but we should be wary of overestimating our ability to predict what's plausible.)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 13 October 2023 - 03:20 PM