[D'rek]

Dolmen 2.0, on 22 February 2018 - 11:32 AM, said:

Tattersail_, on 22 February 2018 - 08:25 AM, said:

She did, so she supported Nom as President but not as Chancellor, what would be the reasoning behind that?

D'rek could you please answer this.

Didn't have any reason to vote Nein to ItNOm as President (nor did anyone else IIRC). He was pretty much a blank slate at that point, and there was no better chance to get info on ItNom than with Mess as Chancellor so even in a he-said-she-said situation it wouldn't be a total 50/50.

Nevyn as President, on the other hand, I had absolutely no reason to trust. I still think his play in the early days was scummy, and frankly if he was going to take a "I won't vote for you unless I'm on the government" policy for all his voting, than I was going to need to be convinced to vote for any government of his. Nothing that came up in the discussion all day convinced me to vote for him. ItNom didn't really have anything to do with it.

Plus, Nevyn was the first of 3 possible government votes, and the next up President would be Messremb.

[Tattersail_]

I agree with D'rek so far that she says there was little reason for Nevyn to lie in this case. It does cast doubt on Nom.

The quantity of posts doesn't matter as much as the quality, but talking things through helps me understand things more AND helps bring up points I hadn't thought of. I'm trying to see the mis-direction in your post, maybe i'll just ignore it unless it directly supports a decision.

The reason I was quiet about my vote this time, is because both you and Cause had the same vote as me last time. I am going to give no clue to who I am voting for before the results as to give you nothing to work on.

[D'rek]

Tattersail_, on 22 February 2018 - 10:38 AM, said:

Cause, on 22 February 2018 - 10:34 AM, said:

Tattersail_, on 22 February 2018 - 10:18 AM, said:

Absolutely impossible for two fascists to accuse each other and lie at the same time. For example, if D'rek and I were fascist then I could just have said I had 3 fascist cards and D'rek could agree with that. The fact that we both disagree means that one of us is lying, in this case, D'rek. The only people who should lie are Fascists, it does not benefit liberals to lie whatsoever.

Not impossible at all. strategy. If the one lies and accuses the other the other will quickly deduce the game and lie back. Then one of them is almost guaranteed a stealthy entry into the liberal faction. I don't want to break my own rules and jump to wild speculation here but the fact that you say you cant see this worries me.

The worst case scenario is for us to become convinced a fascist is a liberal. Because then that means we will eventually conclude a liberal is a fascist in his place because we know their are 3. That's a major power imbalance that favors the fascists.

The reveal power is dangerous. Nevyn is currently himself 50% suspect. If he uses his power on Drek or tats I cant necessarily trust him. He could be a fascist smoke screening for a fascist. if he reveals himself he is a biased source. If he reveals Nom he is hardly gonna to say he is a liberal because that would mean he outs himself. If he used it on me Dolmen messremb etc it could be a fascist sowing confusion into our midst by mislabeling someone (worst case scenario realized). It would create more paths in the labyrinth of speculation than it closes. Only if we could on a subsequent turn reveal his own loyalty could we begin to trust the picture that forms.

Also am I correct he cant reveal hitler. He can only reveal a fascist allegiant, who would than have a one in 3 chance of being hitler?

The major problem is there isn't one group of people saying the other is lying. There are two groups. Hitler would not or should not lie. He needs to be seen as Liberal. What you are suggesting is that say D'rek and Myself are fascists then there is no fascist amongst Nevyn/Nom meaning a Liberal would have lied.

Impossible. Stop trying to paint it as anything else.

Hmmm, I don't agree that it's completely impossible. I've seen weirder things pulled off successfully in mafia, even without off-thread comms.

But rest assured, even if Tatts and I were both fascist there's no way I would be capable of pulling off that kind of stunt with Tatts (or should that be there's no way Tatts would be capable of pulling it off with me? )

[Tattersail_]

D, on 22 February 2018 - 03:48 PM, said:

Tattersail_, on 22 February 2018 - 10:38 AM, said:

Cause, on 22 February 2018 - 10:34 AM, said:

Tattersail_, on 22 February 2018 - 10:18 AM, said:

Absolutely impossible for two fascists to accuse each other and lie at the same time. For example, if D'rek and I were fascist then I could just have said I had 3 fascist cards and D'rek could agree with that. The fact that we both disagree means that one of us is lying, in this case, D'rek. The only people who should lie are Fascists, it does not benefit liberals to lie whatsoever.

Not impossible at all. strategy. If the one lies and accuses the other the other will quickly deduce the game and lie back. Then one of them is almost guaranteed a stealthy entry into the liberal faction. I don't want to break my own rules and jump to wild speculation here but the fact that you say you cant see this worries me.

The worst case scenario is for us to become convinced a fascist is a liberal. Because then that means we will eventually conclude a liberal is a fascist in his place because we know their are 3. That's a major power imbalance that favors the fascists.

The reveal power is dangerous. Nevyn is currently himself 50% suspect. If he uses his power on Drek or tats I cant necessarily trust him. He could be a fascist smoke screening for a fascist. if he reveals himself he is a biased source. If he reveals Nom he is hardly gonna to say he is a liberal because that would mean he outs himself. If he used it on me Dolmen messremb etc it could be a fascist sowing confusion into our midst by mislabeling someone (worst case scenario realized). It would create more paths in the labyrinth of speculation than it closes. Only if we could on a subsequent turn reveal his own loyalty could we begin to trust the picture that forms.

Also am I correct he cant reveal hitler. He can only reveal a fascist allegiant, who would than have a one in 3 chance of being hitler?

The major problem is there isn't one group of people saying the other is lying. There are two groups. Hitler would not or should not lie. He needs to be seen as Liberal. What you are suggesting is that say D'rek and Myself are fascists then there is no fascist amongst Nevyn/Nom meaning a Liberal would have lied.

Impossible. Stop trying to paint it as anything else.

Hmmm, I don't agree that it's completely impossible. I've seen weirder things pulled off successfully in mafia, even without off-thread comms.

But rest assured, even if Tatts and I were both fascist there's no way I would be capable of pulling off that kind of stunt with Tatts (or should that be there's no way Tatts would be capable of pulling it off with me? )

Very true, you are diabolical enough

[D'rek]

Tattersail_, on 22 February 2018 - 03:42 PM, said:

The reason I was quiet about my vote this time, is because both you and Cause had the same vote as me last time. I am going to give no clue to who I am voting for before the results as to give you nothing to work on.

Says the guy who previously replied immediately after a chancellor declaration announcing their vote

[Tattersail_]

D, on 22 February 2018 - 03:51 PM, said:

Tattersail_, on 22 February 2018 - 03:42 PM, said:

The reason I was quiet about my vote this time, is because both you and Cause had the same vote as me last time. I am going to give no clue to who I am voting for before the results as to give you nothing to work on.

Says the guy who previously replied immediately after a chancellor declaration announcing their vote

I know, I am talking from Nevyn's appointment onwards. I'm keeping quiet until afterwards, it gives you less to work on.

[Vengeance]

D, on 22 February 2018 - 03:29 PM, said:

General impressions of the lead-up and votes: We didn't have *that* much discussion on this one, compared to some previous votes, and yet it garnered 5 JAs and passed. Especially interesting to note that Tatts and Cause, two of the most suspected people voted JA.

This post from Tatts right before the vote jumped out at me:

Tattersail_, on 21 February 2018 - 10:09 AM, said:

Messremb, on 21 February 2018 - 09:12 AM, said:

Nevyn, on 20 February 2018 - 11:32 PM, said:

Messremb, on 20 February 2018 - 11:04 PM, said:

Bollocks, dropped the ball sorry. Manic weekend & week.

Vote is in. I'm a no because with a stacked deck we're unlikely to get information on Nom as he'll likely get 2 fascist policies. It's also a great chance for Nevynn to pass two and discard a liberal. I dislike a president getting his election through when we know so little about his own proclivities.

He says after voting ja to every other president having known nothing about them.

Yes, earlier on when there was a reasonable chance of a liberal card being present that was a good basis for seeing how people play. When the cards are stacked in favour of fascists the last people I want in power are unknown because it'd be far too easy for a fascist president (i.e. you) to say you had 3 fascist policies so had to pass 2 when in fact you'd discarded a liberal - and we would have no way of knowing as the cards would be put together and shuffled again immediately after you.

I've already voted but you make a lick of sense. I trust Nom would pass a Liberal policy as he has before, and I am sure that Nevyn would want to pass off as a Liberal so thought if there was a chance of Liberal policy that these two could pass it.

Feels to me like Tatts is pre-supposing the outcome and/or signaling to a partner how they should act.

Obviously I'm still suspicious in your eyes and on my side I'm biased against Tatts since I already know for sure he's fascy, but still I'd like you all to consider this/take a look.




Impressions of the policy results: Nevyn claims he got at least 1 liberal, and passed 1 of each. ItNom claims he was only given 2 fascists.

Normally I'd agree with Cause that this makes both of them suspicious, but I'm not so sure in this case. Based on the number of cards leftover (1 Lib, 4 Fasc I think?) Nevyn was in a really good position to claim he simply picked up 3 Fascist cards and had to pass 2 to ItNom, leaving no lies. Of course it's all WIFOM, but I think the Find ability adds another element to it.

Let's say Nevy is fascist. It's extremely doubtful he's going to take a risk of passing up the Find ability. So he's definitely going to pass 2 fascist policies, in order to be 100% sure he gets the Find and can lie about it. Therefore he can either:

a) Pass 2 fascist cards, and say he had no choice because he picked up 3 fascist cards. This is extremely plausible given the card counts left. People won't 100% trust it, like anything, but it doesn't add any new suspicion to him.

B} Pass 2 fascist cards, but say he passed 1/1. Immediately ItNom will call him on the lie and he garners a ton of extra scrutiny/distrust.

I don't see much reason for Nevyn to take option B. Why invite the extra suspicion on yourself and throw away the opportunity to pseudo-clear someone with your Find?




Post-results thoughts: Tatts, what's with the sudden tidal wave of posts and all the throwing out of random suggestions like find proposals, telling people to let you vindicate yourself as president (like that's gonna happen), etc? Feels like you suddenly got agitated and are causing a distraction.

And Venge is clamping down on who he's willing to trust... obviously this is a major turning point for everyone's trust in the game (and I imagine it is like that most times in this game), but I don't think clamping down is going to accomplish anything right now (well, unless you're hitler).

I am not clamping down. My trust circle just became smaller. It was always small to start with. You are not in my trust circle. Neither is tatts.

I don't care who Nyven chooses who to find as I am not going to trust any find result.

Oh and I can tell you why Nyven would lie about the cards that he gave to Nom. So that Nom is no longer viewed as a liberal. As a rascists he would want as many people as possible to be viewed as possibly being rascists that way hitler and the rascists can hide better. You should know better.

[Tattersail_]

Nevyn, do what you got to do, lets move the game on. If no one is saying anything about who you should pick then I suggest you pick me or D'rek to do a find on. Let us know the result.

[D'rek]

Vengeance, on 22 February 2018 - 03:54 PM, said:

I am not clamping down. My trust circle just became smaller. It was always small to start with. You are not in my trust circle. Neither is tatts.

I don't care who Nyven chooses who to find as I am not going to trust any find result.

Oh and I can tell you why Nyven would lie about the cards that he gave to Nom. So that Nom is no longer viewed as a liberal. As a rascists he would want as many people as possible to be viewed as possibly being rascists that way hitler and the rascists can hide better. You should know better.

I'm not sure that holds up long-term. The policy cards have just reset, we have a few VPI, and we can turn down governments to move the President about. Even if Nevyn's actions have pegged 4-5 players as suspicious, how does that stop us from just cycling through the same few VPI players for a streak of Liberal policies?

Especially if you consider that one of Nevyn's partners - myself or Tatts - would already be "50% found" and is never going to be picked for government. If Nevyn is fascist than he needs to keep himself in the pool of possible government people for the future. If he's not Hitler then removing himself from that pool leaves no one left to elect Hitler. If he is Hitler, then removing himself from the pool removes the chance of him ever getting elected. Both these possibilities seem worse for a long-term fascist strategy than staying in the possible-inno pool, IMO.

[Nevyn]

Since no one has made or justified a better choice, I choose


to investigate




CAUSE


ps: I assume the best way to implement this is Macros just PMs me Cause's loyalty

This post has been edited by Nevyn: 22 February 2018 - 04:37 PM

[D'rek]

What do you think the result is going to be Nevyn? Do you think his slip-up might have been a genuine inno mistake and you're seeking to de-suspectify him? Or are you doing this expecting to confirm the existing suspicion?

[Tattersail_]

Nevyn, on 22 February 2018 - 04:26 PM, said:

Since no one has made or justified a better choice, I choose


to investigate




CAUSE


ps: I assume the best way to implement this is Macros just PMs me Cause's loyalty

Riiight

[Nevyn]

D, on 22 February 2018 - 04:41 PM, said:

What do you think the result is going to be Nevyn? Do you think his slip-up might have been a genuine inno mistake and you're seeking to de-suspectify him? Or are you doing this expecting to confirm the existing suspicion?

Right now Nom and 1 of you or Tatts is a fascist. That means that one of Cause, Mess, Dolmen, Venge is the last fascist.

Ideally, I would find the last fascist, because then we know for sure the other 3 are liberal. That is why Cause is the choice. He is the most likely to be fascist.

If it turns out that he is liberal, we are still in a tough spot, so that would not be welcome news. It would make one of the other 3 a fascist, but none of them trust me, we won't know who to trust between you and Tatts, etc. So when a fascist fails another policy in that scenario, none of us will know who we can safely add.

[Nevyn]

Tattersail_, on 22 February 2018 - 04:47 PM, said:

Riiight

If a bunch of other people had pushed to investigate you or Drek I'd have thought about it. At the moment none of the people I consider safe were asking for that, and at the least Venge wouldn't have believed whatever I said anyway, so if I confirmed you liberal you'd still be left off.

In the meantime I'd have learned nothing about the 3 people under no suspicion.

[D'rek]

Nevyn, on 22 February 2018 - 05:01 PM, said:

D, on 22 February 2018 - 04:41 PM, said:

What do you think the result is going to be Nevyn? Do you think his slip-up might have been a genuine inno mistake and you're seeking to de-suspectify him? Or are you doing this expecting to confirm the existing suspicion?

Right now Nom and 1 of you or Tatts is a fascist. That means that one of Cause, Mess, Dolmen, Venge is the last fascist.

Ideally, I would find the last fascist, because then we know for sure the other 3 are liberal. That is why Cause is the choice. He is the most likely to be fascist.

If it turns out that he is liberal, we are still in a tough spot, so that would not be welcome news. It would make one of the other 3 a fascist, but none of them trust me, we won't know who to trust between you and Tatts, etc. So when a fascist fails another policy in that scenario, none of us will know who we can safely add.

Yes, yes, a facile analysis of the *results*. But I want to know what you *expect*.

[Nevyn]

Again, I picked cause because I expect to find a fascist.


The flipped vote was weird, and defense of it and play since has been weak. I would normally expect a liberal to be fighting more stridently to clear their name, as well as have their own suspicions based on those calling them out. By default, I'd say Cause got busted misunderstanding the rules , was busted, and has mostly given up. But it needs confirmation. Again, I expect to find a fascist, but the value of that information is the people it would put in the clear.

This post has been edited by Nevyn: 22 February 2018 - 05:14 PM

[D'rek]

Alrighty

[Vengeance]

Nevyn, on 22 February 2018 - 05:01 PM, said:

D, on 22 February 2018 - 04:41 PM, said:

What do you think the result is going to be Nevyn? Do you think his slip-up might have been a genuine inno mistake and you're seeking to de-suspectify him? Or are you doing this expecting to confirm the existing suspicion?

Right now Nom and 1 of you or Tatts is a fascist. That means that one of Cause, Mess, Dolmen, Venge is the last fascist.

Ideally, I would find the last fascist, because then we know for sure the other 3 are liberal. That is why Cause is the choice. He is the most likely to be fascist.

If it turns out that he is liberal, we are still in a tough spot, so that would not be welcome news. It would make one of the other 3 a fascist, but none of them trust me, we won't know who to trust between you and Tatts, etc. So when a fascist fails another policy in that scenario, none of us will know who we can safely add.

See you are trusting that one of (drek and tattersail) is telling the truth. I actually assume that both are scum and that one of them is lying about not being scum. Scum = rascists.

[Nevyn]

Vengeance, on 22 February 2018 - 05:25 PM, said:

See you are trusting that one of (drek and tattersail) is telling the truth. I actually assume that both are scum and that one of them is lying about not being scum. Scum = rascists.

That would be a problem if I was investigating one, because then if I found a fascist we'd be assuming the other was a liberal.


I am avoiding the problem altogether.

It is in the realm of possibility they are both fascists, but if so that was a terrible strategy for 8 man. Not unheard of for 9+ when there are more other fascists. But if they are both fascists and picked a fight with each other, they left only 1 other fascist among 6 players, and a situation where neither can possibly get involved again unless a lot goes wrong.

Even in the worst case scenario with this investigation, we still don't need to touch Tatts or Drek.

[Vengeance]

Nevyn, on 22 February 2018 - 05:31 PM, said:

Vengeance, on 22 February 2018 - 05:25 PM, said:

See you are trusting that one of (drek and tattersail) is telling the truth. I actually assume that both are scum and that one of them is lying about not being scum. Scum = rascists.

That would be a problem if I was investigating one, because then if I found a fascist we'd be assuming the other was a liberal.


I am avoiding the problem altogether.

It is in the realm of possibility they are both fascists, but if so that was a terrible strategy for 8 man. Not unheard of for 9+ when there are more other fascists. But if they are both fascists and picked a fight with each other, they left only 1 other fascist among 6 players, and a situation where neither can possibly get involved again unless a lot goes wrong.

Even in the worst case scenario with this investigation, we still don't need to touch Tatts or Drek.

I think that you are underestimating the amount of pure fuckery that we will attempt to do in order to win. In mafia it is not unheard of for a symp or a killer partner to direct a lynch on a killer in order to PI themselves. It is called distancing and you don't play mafia and not utilize it. Both Drek and Tatts and for that matter Mess and cause and nom all are all familar with it. As am I. Thus my never ending suspicious of people.

For a wise man once said ' It is not paranoia if they really are after you'.