[Kilava]

TBH, I don't know what to think anymore.

[Kilava]

Kilava, on 20 June 2017 - 07:38 PM, said:

TBH, I don't know what to think anymore.

Other than that voting for night is a really, really bad idea.

[Jalan]

So, what do you think of Merrid at this point? I'm still confident of the identity of Lock at this point, but did you still believe Merrid to be Lock's forever lover? I'm a bit thrown off by Merrid's EoD play yesterday. Nearly every point made to justify the near-lynch of Rashy applies to Merrid's EoD "We should vote Rashy" then never actually place a vote play.

[Kilava]

Jalan, on 20 June 2017 - 08:06 PM, said:

So, what do you think of Merrid at this point? I'm still confident of the identity of Lock at this point, but did you still believe Merrid to be Lock's forever lover? I'm a bit thrown off by Merrid's EoD play yesterday. Nearly every point made to justify the near-lynch of Rashy applies to Merrid's EoD "We should vote Rashy" then never actually place a vote play.

I noted that, yes. And Lock didn't exactly light up the thread either. Both of their play yesterday doesn't exactly fill me with confidence today. So I guess if I don't "follow them through the gates of Hell" today like I said I would should come up as a good vote Kilava option.

Whatever. I feel that I've done too much work for the vampires in the last two days, so I'm going to shut up and lay low. In other words, do what everyone else has been doing.

[Kilava]

Jalan, on 20 June 2017 - 08:06 PM, said:

So, what do you think of Merrid at this point? I'm still confident of the identity of Lock at this point, but did you still believe Merrid to be Lock's forever lover? I'm a bit thrown off by Merrid's EoD play yesterday. Nearly every point made to justify the near-lynch of Rashy applies to Merrid's EoD "We should vote Rashy" then never actually place a vote play.

The obvious difference being that Nimander WAS a vampire and Rashan WASN'T. So Merrid's non-vote and Rashan's no-vote aren't at all equivalent.

[Kilava]

And since everyone is playing so lackadaisically, it tells me that Buffy is playing lackadaisically, too. So it's really no wonder that I am both exhausted and demoralized.

[Galain]

Well that's interesting. I'd like to know what Lock thinks about voting night now. I assume that kill wasn't Buffy just going off the rails What made them so sure that vamps would have nothing left?

I'm still leaning toward Jalan but Kilava's "lynch me" plea is grating on me.

[Lock]

Galain, on 20 June 2017 - 09:31 PM, said:

Well that's interesting. I'd like to know what Lock thinks about voting night now. I assume that kill wasn't Buffy just going off the rails What made them so sure that vamps would have nothing left?

I'm still leaning toward Jalan but Kilava's "lynch me" plea is grating on me.

What I'm thinking is that I accused Nimander for all the wrong reasons and there is a third party doing the lynches.

What I'm sure is that voting night is not a good idea.

What I'm wondering is what I should be looking for in the thread in the last few pages.

Is our killer a vampire who has inherited a night kill? Is he an independent/third party? Or is is possible for Buffy to kill townies by mistake? We should be looking for different things on thread in any of those cases.

One things for sure though, people's reaction to my suggestion we vote night can be really helpful in figuring it out. For example, were I to have a night kill and see someone has suggested a vote for night on thread due to the assumption there are no more night kills, I'd either show lukewarm support for the idea or oppose it half-heartedly. In either case, chances are the day is going to end without a lynch and I'll get to practice my magik risk free.

Based on the reasoning above, my suspicions of Galain have increased.

[Merrid]

So there is a kill. The kill for some reason is not a regular thing. There is probably some constraint on the vampire in question.

[Galain]

Lock, on 21 June 2017 - 02:44 AM, said:

Galain, on 20 June 2017 - 09:31 PM, said:

Well that's interesting. I'd like to know what Lock thinks about voting night now. I assume that kill wasn't Buffy just going off the rails What made them so sure that vamps would have nothing left?

I'm still leaning toward Jalan but Kilava's "lynch me" plea is grating on me.

What I'm thinking is that I accused Nimander for all the wrong reasons and there is a third party doing the lynches.

What I'm sure is that voting night is not a good idea.

What I'm wondering is what I should be looking for in the thread in the last few pages.

Is our killer a vampire who has inherited a night kill? Is he an independent/third party? Or is is possible for Buffy to kill townies by mistake? We should be looking for different things on thread in any of those cases.

One things for sure though, people's reaction to my suggestion we vote night can be really helpful in figuring it out. For example, were I to have a night kill and see someone has suggested a vote for night on thread due to the assumption there are no more night kills, I'd either show lukewarm support for the idea or oppose it half-heartedly. In either case, chances are the day is going to end without a lynch and I'll get to practice my magik risk free.

Based on the reasoning above, my suspicions of Galain have increased.

Your last two sentences do not go together. Please show me where I supported or did not stand in the way of going to night. Because I'm pretty sure I objected to it on the grounds of I don't know what the fuck's still out there

But it's okay, I forgive you, as your reasoning does appear to have been wonky all game.

[Galain]

Merrid, on 21 June 2017 - 03:51 AM, said:

So there is a kill. The kill for some reason is not a regular thing. There is probably some constraint on the vampire in question.

Could be hitting BPs, could be alternating with recruiting, could have forgotten to put in an NA, could be they only just gained a power, could be that it could be any number of things.

[Galain]

I'm going to vote where I voted yesterday as nothing has really changed since then except the elimination of another suspect in Rashan. So


Vote Jalan

[Merrid]

I have a very good reason to believe Kilava is Town.

Lock is puzzling. He was right about Nim being a vampire. That should automatically make him innocent.

Having looked up the play around Nim's lynch, Galain does not strike me as a vamp.

This leaves Jalan.

Jalan's last minute hammer of Nim pushed me in his favour as he could have held back.

So it seems to be a toss up between Galain and Jalan and I am leaning more towards Jalan at the moment.

[Merrid]

Quote

Night 1: No lynch, No Kill

Night 2: Osseric lynched - RI, Denul killed - Drusilla vamp. No vamp kill.

Night 3: Ampelas lynched - RI, Zander. Silchas Ruin killed - Giles. Potential roled town, vamp kill.

Night 4: No lynch. Thyr - killed, Spike vamp. No vamp kill.

Night 5: No lynch. No kill. (early night call by PS)

Night 6: Nimander lynched - Cordelia vamp. No kills.

Night 7: No lynch. Rashan killed - RI. vamp kill.

Trying to nail down the kill pattern. It seems to me that we have an alternate night kill mechanic and the kill does not work if a vamp is lynched or killed.

Also I think that there is an alternate kill/recruit mechanic.

Going by the hypothesis that the kill/recruit mechanic is inherited and killing/lynching a vamp blocks it, there are 2 nights when vamps were not getting killed or lynched - night 1 and night 5.

So I think there were 2 recruits, Nimander and someone else.

Now Lock was on Nimander from before Night 5, so Nimander was probably the earlier recruit. This means the second recruit and current vamp was recruited on night 5.

Is there any detectable change in pattern of play following night 5?

[Merrid]

Galain, on 21 June 2017 - 07:43 AM, said:

Merrid, on 21 June 2017 - 03:51 AM, said:

So there is a kill. The kill for some reason is not a regular thing. There is probably some constraint on the vampire in question.

Could be hitting BPs, could be alternating with recruiting, could have forgotten to put in an NA, could be they only just gained a power, could be that it could be any number of things.

Just how many BPs do you think there are?

[Kilava]

Happy to see there's been some overnight activity.

Jalan is the way I would go, but I'm still of a mind that there are probably two of them. But maybe not if a vamp NA ran into one or more RPs.

Gotta get to work. Be back later.

[Galain]

What is the possibility that we're being fucked with? Why does Merrid now say he trusts Kilava? Why do we not consider Merrid again?

Paranoia spiking.

[Merrid]

I can't say much while staying within the rules of the game.

Instead of speculating unproductively you could tell me what you think of my kill theory

[Galain]

Merrid, on 21 June 2017 - 01:34 PM, said:

I can't say much while staying within the rules of the game.

Instead of speculating unproductively you could tell me what you think of my kill theory

It's unproductive speculation to ask questions now?

You mean if there is an alternating kill/recruit? Yes, that would make the most sense to me. The one caveat is that if we started with Spike and Drusilla, I'm not sure that the death of one (Drusilla) would necessarily stop recruit that night, as they may both have wielded the ability together (like a regular scum partnership). So night 2 shouldn't be discounted as possibly seeing a recruitment.

That having been said, it doesn't alter things much. I think there can't be more than two vamps left, otherwise surely they would have driven a lynch together. I suspect/hope there is just the one (I reckon Jalan), with recruitment having been scuppered by various factors.

[Galain]

Bear in mind that the above is far more in the realms of (semi-educated) speculation than the questions I asked beforehand