[Galain]

Was it Nimander who said that Rashan was not a vampire? Why was this?

[Nimander Golit]

Nimander is convinced Rashan is not a vampire because of, how Kilava put it, reasons. That makes Jalan way spookier among the two I brought up. But it's irrelevant as long as we don't lynch Lock.

Edit: grammar.

This post has been edited by Nimander Golit: 14 June 2017 - 01:30 PM

[Rashan]

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 01:29 PM, said:

Because Nimander is convinced Rashan is not a vampire because of, how Kilava put it, reasons. That makes Jalan way spookier among the two I brought. But it's irrelevant as long as we don't lynch Lock.

How can you know I have not been recruited last night or the night before?

[Nimander Golit]

That's a good question. Perhaps I should have said: Nimander was convinced (...) as of the moment of first writing that though. So yeah, put Rashan back on equal terms with Jalan in terms of how fishy their absence and then sudden arrival right after timeout is.


... which is still not as fishy as Lock

[Nimander Golit]

Tho now that I think about, Drusila and Spike were supposed to be the two main baddies of season 2 right? In this case the recruiter should be dead by now. Unless recruiting is inherited? No strong opinion on this one.

[Galain]

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 12:01 PM, said:

Okay, I spent some time thinking about this and I'm back to where I was the previous day. It has to be Lock, there is no other logical explanation.

Merrid brought up an important thing:

Merrid, on 14 June 2017 - 08:41 AM, said:

There are recruits.

The question is, whether those recruits are roled, or not.

If Lock is right about Nimander, that is to say Nimander killed Silchas, then at least one recruit is roled.

With two lead vamps dead we must be down to recruits - you're right on this, Merrid. You're also correct that if Lock is telling the truth, then I'm by extension a roled recruit. Except that's not possible, which brings us to the only possible conclusion that Lock is lying.
Look at this: since we're sure that vampires had to have a recruiter, they certainly started outnumbered. We can assume with high certainty that Buffy has an NK capability. Do you think there would be another townie with an NK at hand with numbers already skewed toward town? I cannot be a recruited killer because I'm pretty sure town did not start with another killer.

Also, if I was lying, then from the way the conversation unfolded yesterday, Buffy would 100% know I'm lying. But she did not target me, did she? Why would that be? Maybe because she knows I'm telling the truth?

Well if Buffy works the way she did in the first game, then she does a find and, if she finds a vampire, can kill them the next night. So we might assume Buffy had already found Thyr to be a vampire, and targeted him last night, which is why you weren't bothered with.

That's one scenario.

As for vampires, they might alternate between recruit and kill, or decide which to do.

I need to go back through Thyr's posts still. You're making arguments which, from my perspective, I don't know whether to believe that you simply have more info than I do and are able to reach conclusions from that, or whether you're just making things up.

[Nimander Golit]

Galain, on 14 June 2017 - 02:29 PM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 12:01 PM, said:

Okay, I spent some time thinking about this and I'm back to where I was the previous day. It has to be Lock, there is no other logical explanation.

Merrid brought up an important thing:

Merrid, on 14 June 2017 - 08:41 AM, said:

There are recruits.

The question is, whether those recruits are roled, or not.

If Lock is right about Nimander, that is to say Nimander killed Silchas, then at least one recruit is roled.

With two lead vamps dead we must be down to recruits - you're right on this, Merrid. You're also correct that if Lock is telling the truth, then I'm by extension a roled recruit. Except that's not possible, which brings us to the only possible conclusion that Lock is lying.
Look at this: since we're sure that vampires had to have a recruiter, they certainly started outnumbered. We can assume with high certainty that Buffy has an NK capability. Do you think there would be another townie with an NK at hand with numbers already skewed toward town? I cannot be a recruited killer because I'm pretty sure town did not start with another killer.

Also, if I was lying, then from the way the conversation unfolded yesterday, Buffy would 100% know I'm lying. But she did not target me, did she? Why would that be? Maybe because she knows I'm telling the truth?

Well if Buffy works the way she did in the first game, then she does a find and, if she finds a vampire, can kill them the next night. So we might assume Buffy had already found Thyr to be a vampire, and targeted him last night, which is why you weren't bothered with.

That's one scenario.

As for vampires, they might alternate between recruit and kill, or decide which to do.

I need to go back through Thyr's posts still. You're making arguments which, from my perspective, I don't know whether to believe that you simply have more info than I do and are able to reach conclusions from that, or whether you're just making things up.

If Buffy ran a find on Thyr N3 and a kill on Thyr N4, that only proves Lock was making up the accusation that I killed Silchas. Because how would he know something like this? How many Finders can there be? No matter what scenario we make out of all this, no matter from which angle you look at this, each and every time Lock is full of shit. His reveal does not hold up under any circumstances.

And again, he was at L-1 and two players, complete no-shows for the past days, spring up right after the day times out. How fortunate for him, huh? I tried following on Galain's thought that me and Lock might be two townies going after one another, but it doesn't add up. I cannot think of a scenario in which Lock is town.

[Galain]

I've gone through Thyrllan's posts. Very little of substance there, which is not surprising now that we've seen the CF. Unfortunately speaking about possible links is clouded by the fact that there might be recruiting, so someone being hostile to Thyr early on doesn't necessarily mean they're in the same position now. As it is, perhaps Merrid is the only one I might *very* hesitantly say is not connected to Thyr, due to Thyr's questioning and casting aspersions on their posts.


Anyways, to get back to the direct matter at hand:

Nim, where your "Jalan and Rashan didn't vote and popped up after lynch, so that makes Lock suspicious" argument falls down somewhat is in two areas: 1) Thyrllan was around when you might have been lynched but did not switch despite saying he was willing to, and 2) Thyrllan was the first vote on Lock after Lock's accusation of you and was generally anti-Lock yesterday - why would a vampire do that to a fellow vampire?

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 5 with 23 hours and 58 minutes remaining.

There are 7 players still alive: ( Rashan, Galain, Jalan, Kilava, Lock, Nimander Golit,Merrid)

4 Votes to lynch 3 to go night
2 votes Nimander (Merrid, Galain)
1 vote Lock (Nimander)


Players not voted: (Rashan, Galain, Kilava, Nimander, Lock, Merrid, Jalan)

[Nimander Golit]

@Galain:

1) Correct me if I'm wrong, but I wasn't at L-1 the previous day. So this doesn't really apply.
2) Distancing? Lock's fake reveal was a risky move. Thyr sitting early on Lock's train would gain a lot of trust after Lock CF'd vamp. And apparently he already had Kilava on board.

To add to that, I don't really see how Thyr's behavior does anything to remove suspicion from Lock/Rashan/Jalan.

K, I spent a lot of time here today. Need to take a break. Would be nice if others - especially Rashan and Jalan - honored us with their participation too. Should be around later.

[Rashan]

Kilava, on 14 June 2017 - 11:53 AM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 08:32 AM, said:

Kilava's sudden appearance with the bullshit theory about 6v6 distribution was a thinly veiled hint at being a roled townie. But they tried to VPI Thyr and now immediately jumped to vote me, so his claim is dubious at best.

Kilava, on 06 June 2017 - 05:02 PM, said:

Osseric, on 06 June 2017 - 04:45 PM, said:

Along the same logic, do with think Kill - Ava has any night actions?

I have no night actions... yet.

Okay, the 6:6 distribution was stupid, but the conclusions I drew from it were still useful. There WAS at least one vampire on the Lock train.

How come? Your conclusion appeared to rest solely on your assumed 6:6 distribution, you even said it yourself

Kilava, on 14 June 2017 - 02:28 AM, said:

Regardless, there IS a vampire on the Lock train. I KNOW THIS TO BE A FACT from simple math (if the original distribution was 6:6).

[Rashan]

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 04:21 PM, said:

2) Distancing? Lock's fake reveal was a risky move. Thyr sitting early on Lock's train would gain a lot of trust after Lock CF'd vamp. And apparently he already had Kilava on board.

He was first vote and the most vocal anti-Lock person, not one of them. Plus he probably didn't think he was dying anytime soon. He might have believed that lynch of a townie would have won the vampires game, in which case his behaviour towards you would make perfect sense were you a vampire that he either knew of or even suspected to be.
At that point there were 8 players, and Thyr might have possibly had up to 2 recruits?

[Nimander Golit]

Heh, we're looking at the same situation and reading it completely differently. There were 8 players left before Thyr was killed, so I'm sure he did not assume it's D-day. That's one thing. Next: if Thyr knew Lock was lying (very likely), he might have just hedged his bets. He didn't want his name on the train if I get lynched because he knew it would come back to bite him in the ass. And it's Ment we're talking about - if anyone planned 5 moves ahead, he did. This reminds of a game from a few months back, when Macros and Tatts were paired killers. Macros pushed Tatts under the bus on D1 and sailed to victory. Didn't quite work out that way for Ment, but it's plausible.

Finally, coming back to the point that I have been trying to make over and over again, regardless of what you make of my play, there is no way for Lock to be town. You guys are spending another day grilling me over Lock's accusation but look at the game and think about it. Is there any possible scenario in which his story adds up?

[Kilava]

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 12:01 PM, said:

We can assume with high certainty that Buffy has an NK capability. Do you think there would be another townie with an NK at hand with numbers already skewed toward town?

Apart from Buffy, NO. Most likely not, in any case.

Conclusion for reasons.

[Kilava]

I have just removed before posting what I wanted to post here.

I'll have to ask PS if it's kosher to do so. I think it is, but one never knows.

[Kilava]

Galain, on 14 June 2017 - 01:21 PM, said:

Was it Nimander who said that Rashan was not a vampire? Why was this?

I don't know about Nimander, but Rashan was so adamant that we not lynch Osseric that I couldn't see him being a vampire at that time.

His sudden appearance at the start of this day after being AWOL all day yesterday, however...

[Rashan]

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 06:54 PM, said:

Heh, we're looking at the same situation and reading it completely differently. There were 8 players left before Thyr was killed, so I'm sure he did not assume it's D-day. That's one thing. Next: if Thyr knew Lock was lying (very likely), he might have just hedged his bets. He didn't want his name on the train if I get lynched because he knew it would come back to bite him in the ass. And it's Ment we're talking about - if anyone planned 5 moves ahead, he did. This reminds of a game from a few months back, when Macros and Tatts were paired killers. Macros pushed Tatts under the bus on D1 and sailed to victory. Didn't quite work out that way for Ment, but it's plausible.

Yeah but Mac and Tatts weren't in a convo, so they did that because if they wanted to kill anyone otherwise, they both would have had to put in the same target.

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 06:54 PM, said:

Finally, coming back to the point that I have been trying to make over and over again, regardless of what you make of my play, there is no way for Lock to be town. You guys are spending another day grilling me over Lock's accusation but look at the game and think about it. Is there any possible scenario in which his story adds up?

What about the scenario where you are lying? How is that impossible/is Lock scum in the scenario?

Kilava, on 14 June 2017 - 07:18 PM, said:

Galain, on 14 June 2017 - 01:21 PM, said:

Was it Nimander who said that Rashan was not a vampire? Why was this?

I don't know about Nimander, but Rashan was so adamant that we not lynch Osseric that I couldn't see him being a vampire at that time.

His sudden appearance at the start of this day after being AWOL all day yesterday, however...

Alright I came home yesterday at about 11am after not having slept for about 29 hours, high, maybe a bit drunk, and had no idea what to make of what's going on on thread and nothing useful to post. After some 4 hours long nap that didn't change and before I managed to post something in the evening I went back to bed, setting alarm for the morning 15 minutes before what I thought was the timeout.

[Kilava]

Kilava, on 14 June 2017 - 07:05 PM, said:

I have just removed before posting what I wanted to post here.

I'll have to ask PS if it's kosher to do so. I think it is, but one never knows.

Based on what little I KNOW, my conclusion is that there is probably only one Killer at a time and only one Slayer at a time.

Unless inheritance is three or more deep, the Vampires can no longer kill. I guess we'll find out soon enough whether or not that's true.

[Nimander Golit]

Rashan, on 14 June 2017 - 07:34 PM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 06:54 PM, said:

Heh, we're looking at the same situation and reading it completely differently. There were 8 players left before Thyr was killed, so I'm sure he did not assume it's D-day. That's one thing. Next: if Thyr knew Lock was lying (very likely), he might have just hedged his bets. He didn't want his name on the train if I get lynched because he knew it would come back to bite him in the ass. And it's Ment we're talking about - if anyone planned 5 moves ahead, he did. This reminds of a game from a few months back, when Macros and Tatts were paired killers. Macros pushed Tatts under the bus on D1 and sailed to victory. Didn't quite work out that way for Ment, but it's plausible.

Yeah but Mac and Tatts weren't in a convo, so they did that because if they wanted to kill anyone otherwise, they both would have had to put in the same target.

Are you saying that vamp leader has off-thread comms with recruits? I don't recall a faction game where that was a case. So this is exactly the same.

Rashan, on 14 June 2017 - 07:34 PM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 06:54 PM, said:

Finally, coming back to the point that I have been trying to make over and over again, regardless of what you make of my play, there is no way for Lock to be town. You guys are spending another day grilling me over Lock's accusation but look at the game and think about it. Is there any possible scenario in which his story adds up?

What about the scenario where you are lying? How is that impossible/is Lock scum in the scenario?

This is my point precisely! Even if for whatever reason you think I'm lying/a vampire/whatever, LOCK'S STORY STILL DOESN'T ADD UP. because of this:

Kilava, on 14 June 2017 - 07:00 PM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 12:01 PM, said:

We can assume with high certainty that Buffy has an NK capability. Do you think there would be another townie with an NK at hand with numbers already skewed toward town?

Apart from Buffy, NO. Most likely not, in any case.

Conclusion for reasons.

If there are no townies with kill powers to be recruited, how could I have killed Silchas? And since the whole case on me is built on Lock's claim that I killed Silchas, it just falls apart. It's bogus.

[Kilava]

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 08:02 PM, said:

Rashan, on 14 June 2017 - 07:34 PM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 06:54 PM, said:

Heh, we're looking at the same situation and reading it completely differently. There were 8 players left before Thyr was killed, so I'm sure he did not assume it's D-day. That's one thing. Next: if Thyr knew Lock was lying (very likely), he might have just hedged his bets. He didn't want his name on the train if I get lynched because he knew it would come back to bite him in the ass. And it's Ment we're talking about - if anyone planned 5 moves ahead, he did. This reminds of a game from a few months back, when Macros and Tatts were paired killers. Macros pushed Tatts under the bus on D1 and sailed to victory. Didn't quite work out that way for Ment, but it's plausible.

Yeah but Mac and Tatts weren't in a convo, so they did that because if they wanted to kill anyone otherwise, they both would have had to put in the same target.

Are you saying that vamp leader has off-thread comms with recruits? I don't recall a faction game where that was a case. So this is exactly the same.

Rashan, on 14 June 2017 - 07:34 PM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 06:54 PM, said:

Finally, coming back to the point that I have been trying to make over and over again, regardless of what you make of my play, there is no way for Lock to be town. You guys are spending another day grilling me over Lock's accusation but look at the game and think about it. Is there any possible scenario in which his story adds up?

What about the scenario where you are lying? How is that impossible/is Lock scum in the scenario?

This is my point precisely! Even if for whatever reason you think I'm lying/a vampire/whatever, LOCK'S STORY STILL DOESN'T ADD UP. because of this:

Kilava, on 14 June 2017 - 07:00 PM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 14 June 2017 - 12:01 PM, said:

We can assume with high certainty that Buffy has an NK capability. Do you think there would be another townie with an NK at hand with numbers already skewed toward town?

Apart from Buffy, NO. Most likely not, in any case.

Conclusion for reasons.

If there are no townies with kill powers to be recruited, how could I have killed Silchas? And since the whole case on me is built on Lock's claim that I killed Silchas, it just falls apart. It's bogus.

I don't want to lynch you any more, but I don't necessarily want to lynch Lock either. He himself said his evidence wasn't ironclad, but that it pointed to you killing Silchas.

Right now I'm more interested in Jalan, who hasn't made any effort in any direction so far.