[Ultama]

I'm off to bed. We're like what, 24h from timeout? Still a lot of time but I'm super annoyed with Serc's absence.

Serc has been out for ~30 hours if I see correctly. PS, could you give a quick update on what's the timer for a modkill? That could shake things up a bit at this stage.

[Hanas]

Alkend, on 06 January 2017 - 12:24 AM, said:

Me oh my Hanas, you know how I love such mistakes.

Mistakes? WHERE?

Going to bed too, actually was intending to go before I started reading the thread...

Serc's absence could indeed be waiting to see where the wind blows, I think I'm leaning towards them at the moment but I really need the sleep. Also I think Alkend (also because apparently him being so sure about Ultama having found Gam to be a townie doesn't seem to be so inaccurate anymore) is still likely to be townie. About Gamelon I was rather sure they're too btu there's the other side of that aforementioned argument. About Fande I've vy far found the highest number of suspicious, the number of his posts has to play a role in that too. But most of the things are rather subtle just as I would expect from scum as opposed to Serc.

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 4 as of 5:00 PM EST with 19 hours 00 Minutes remaining

6 players alive: (Ultama, Fanderay, Gameon, Alkend, Serc, Hanas)
4 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go night


Players not voted: Ultama, Fanderay, Gameon, Alkend, Serc, Hanas

going through votes atm

Edit: dont think i found any, ill look the thread over in the morning

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 06 January 2017 - 03:12 AM

[Gamelon]

Serc still has not shown up.

On the one hand his low-posting evasive play seems scummy. On the other hand, would scum be so absent at such a crucial stage?

I am going to be able to keep an eye on the thread every two hours or so, so I am going to

Vote Serc

Lets see if that brings him out

[Serc]

Alkend, on 04 January 2017 - 10:43 PM, said:

aw come on man!

gamelon/ hanas was the call!

right, watching another ep of the 99.

then we hunt.

wait, who did you N1?

Alkend, on 04 January 2017 - 11:57 PM, said:

It's Serc or Fanderay

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:24 AM, said:

Think it's serc now.

This is going to be a shitty nights sleep

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:29 PM, said:

its fairly simple.
Gamelon is, imo, 100% not our killer
I am 100% not our killer
unless ultama is a fucking genious, imo 100% not our killer
Hanas I'm probably at about 80/90%

its between you and serc

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:44 PM, said:

I just read from the start of d3 through there to the lynch.

Ultama throws out the solid case on mockra (pre reveal)

Serc fires at Gamelon
Fandera practically ignores and sprays supicion in several directions and references the AF symp thing again.


I'm still torn, I'm swaying towards Fandera, but thats likely because Serc did so damned little yesterday.
going for serc in isolation now

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:49 PM, said:

well fuck me that didn't take long.

Serc old buddy, gonna need to hear something from you.

Gamelon/Hamas was the call. It's Either Serc or Fanderay. It's Serc. Gamelon is 100% innocent. It's Fanderay or Serc.


You fault me for being AWOL (and rightly so), but you yourself had little or nothing to say right up until Mockra went down. Then you became chatty cathy all of a sudden. You have become a posting dynamo and the bulk of it boils down to your "gut feeling."


Both you and Fanderay have given Gamelon a pass based solely on one post he made regarding Ultama's vote for Mockra prior to the reveal. It's one thing to throw out a "Okay, maybe you're right about Mockra" post, but he didn't lay down the vote until after the reveal. Without the reveal he (Gamelon) could have waltzed away without another word on the subject of Mockra.


Fanderay is the most active poster and that always raises my hackles. I get all paranoid about scum hanging around "orchestrating" and steering the thread. Yet despite that, I am almost always wrong in that regard. So as far as I can tell from my reading, Fanderay seems legit. In fact, i will wager that Fandy is the player Ultama checked on Night one and is reluctant to ID.


Okay, I still have more reading to do, but my initial suspicions about Gamelon remain and your sudden burst of activity post-Mockra furrows my brow too. I don't know where i stand on Hamas yet.

[Serc]

Gamelon, on 06 January 2017 - 03:41 AM, said:

Serc still has not shown up.

On the one hand his low-posting evasive play seems scummy. On the other hand, would scum be so absent at such a crucial stage?

I am going to be able to keep an eye on the thread every two hours or so, so I am going to

Vote Serc

Lets see if that brings him out

Pure coincidence, i assure you!

[Serc]

Fanderay, on 05 January 2017 - 08:15 PM, said:

Right, I'm going to go through the players in turn, starting with Gamelon:

OK, so I think with hindsight I might have been a bit too fixated on Gamelon for the first few days. His playstyle in general has been reasonable and measured, and I don't think he's approaching the current situation in the way a scum would. Despite the fact I've been pushing for him to be lynched since Day 1, he hasn't pushed back at me at all - that OMGUS impulse is one that runs strong in scum players, especially when they know they have something to hide, so it speaks well of him that he didn't have the same urge.

Apart from those general impressions, he was pro-Mockra lynch prior to Ultama's reveal. Part of that was the other option on the table was him, but it does seem like a plus point in his favour.

Had he voted for Mockra prior to the reveal I would agree, but i think you're giving a throw-away comment too much weight.

[Serc]

Hanas, on 05 January 2017 - 11:40 PM, said:

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:03 AM, said:

but Beks death- serc related?

Yes at the time he was the only one expressing suspicion about them and give the phase of the game it would've been very likely to pass unnoticed and potentionally saving Serc trouble further in the game

Nothing passes unnoticed. I'm betting Bek's death had nothing to do with me and everything to do with Bek being Mentalist.

[Ultama]

Here and will be lurking throughout the day. So, to sum up my thoughts, we could pretty much build a case against almost anyone here and they all seem legit to me, which is not boding well for the upcoming resolution. For the sake of transparency, Fanderay is town.

Now, to quickly look at what we have against everyone else:
Serc: low-posting, lowest-posting actually, which would make a good pairing with high-volume Mockra. But what's most damning is the immediate jump to start an alternative train on Gamelon after I vote Mockra pre-reveal.
Alkend: lying low throughout the whole game but the moment the reveal comes, becomes hyperactive and is all over the thread. Also has some very far-reaching assumptions - if he was scum, he would knew he's right with them (i.e. Gamelon being 100% inno).
Hanas: that slip with looking at my D1 vote and claiming it was D2 is awfully scummy. It stinks of scrambling scum, tho to be honest there wasn't much attention directed towards Hanas... but there was towards Serc, so maybeeeeee symp+scum?
Gamelon: has been attracting attention with scumminess throughout the entire game. The thing is, he was on board with Mockra case before the reveal, which would be pretty aggressive distancing.

My reasoning is fairly useless, because I'd say we have almost equal probs of anyone of the four being scum. I am very curious to hear Hanas' and Alkend's thoughts now that they know Fandy is not scum.

Anyhow, here's what I propose. We go to Night, I find Serc. BCS, we confirm he's scum and win the game. Not-so-BC scenarios:
* I am killed. We go from 2 confirmed townies to 1 (Fandy), against 4 unknowns. That's the worst possible outcome, but also the most unlikely. I expect there to be a medic in the game, which means I'm protected.
* Serc is killed. We still have 2 confirmed townies (me & Fandy) but against 3 unknowns. Essentially we go from 25% to 33% chance of a hit.
* Fanderay is killed. But we know Serc's allegiance so it's pretty much the same as above.

What do you think?

[Alkend]

Well fuck me that throws my logic entirely out of the window.

What prompted your sudden drop of Hamelin day 2 after being so reluctant to change vote to pallid day 1?
Man I was el convinced.

I need to completely reread and re evaluate now.

Santa Claus shit

[Alkend]

Not a fan of going to night when we don't have an open set up. In a wcs we could already be at 4v2, and run the risk of heading to 3v2 without having our finder alive

[Ultama]

Aparal kept digging himself deeper into nonsense, I took that as a scum giveaway. The rest is history.

I'd argue that 3v2 with 33% of winning is better than 4v2 with 25% - tho the percentage is assuming that each option is equal. Unfortunately, for me they are close to being equal which leads me to believe this is the best option.

Wasn't it you who brought up the possibility of a medic? If you're right, it's unlikely I die this night.

[Fanderay]

Ultama, on 06 January 2017 - 09:07 AM, said:

Here and will be lurking throughout the day. So, to sum up my thoughts, we could pretty much build a case against almost anyone here and they all seem legit to me, which is not boding well for the upcoming resolution. For the sake of transparency, Fanderay is town.

Now, to quickly look at what we have against everyone else:
Serc: low-posting, lowest-posting actually, which would make a good pairing with high-volume Mockra. But what's most damning is the immediate jump to start an alternative train on Gamelon after I vote Mockra pre-reveal.
Alkend: lying low throughout the whole game but the moment the reveal comes, becomes hyperactive and is all over the thread. Also has some very far-reaching assumptions - if he was scum, he would knew he's right with them (i.e. Gamelon being 100% inno).
Hanas: that slip with looking at my D1 vote and claiming it was D2 is awfully scummy. It stinks of scrambling scum, tho to be honest there wasn't much attention directed towards Hanas... but there was towards Serc, so maybeeeeee symp+scum?
Gamelon: has been attracting attention with scumminess throughout the entire game. The thing is, he was on board with Mockra case before the reveal, which would be pretty aggressive distancing.

My reasoning is fairly useless, because I'd say we have almost equal probs of anyone of the four being scum. I am very curious to hear Hanas' and Alkend's thoughts now that they know Fandy is not scum.

Anyhow, here's what I propose. We go to Night, I find Serc. BCS, we confirm he's scum and win the game. Not-so-BC scenarios:
* I am killed. We go from 2 confirmed townies to 1 (Fandy), against 4 unknowns. That's the worst possible outcome, but also the most unlikely. I expect there to be a medic in the game, which means I'm protected.
* Serc is killed. We still have 2 confirmed townies (me & Fandy) but against 3 unknowns. Essentially we go from 25% to 33% chance of a hit.
* Fanderay is killed. But we know Serc's allegiance so it's pretty much the same as above.

What do you think?

The general idea that we should be getting as many finds as we can seems like a good one. I can see that going to night instead of lynching could be a good way of making that happen, but I'm a little concerned that the plan relies on the hypothetical existence of a healer. That's two people who feel that it's likely one exists, but that's based entirely on role-spec. So there's still a reasonable chance that we don't have a healer at all and the WCS of an Ultama NK goes through.

On the other hand, if we do get an outcome other than an Ultama NK, it will be very helpful (especially since nobody has expressed a strong enough certainty about their vote today). Reducing the pool of possible scum by one would be a great boost.

So I guess for me it all comes down to how likely it is there's a healer in the game. It's a no-brainer if there is, but we should avoid it if there isn't. My initial instinct was that a Finder/Healer combo is pretty OP, to the extent that I'm not sure a game designer would include it. But having said that, I've also seen games where a scum pair absolutely dominates a 12 player game by themselves, so maybe town needs all the help they can get...

Meh. I don't know. What does everyone else think about the likelihood of a healer in the game?

[Gamelon]

Serc, on 06 January 2017 - 03:54 AM, said:

Alkend, on 04 January 2017 - 10:43 PM, said:

aw come on man!

gamelon/ hanas was the call!

right, watching another ep of the 99.

then we hunt.

wait, who did you N1?

Alkend, on 04 January 2017 - 11:57 PM, said:

It's Serc or Fanderay

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:24 AM, said:

Think it's serc now.

This is going to be a shitty nights sleep

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:29 PM, said:

its fairly simple.
Gamelon is, imo, 100% not our killer
I am 100% not our killer
unless ultama is a fucking genious, imo 100% not our killer
Hanas I'm probably at about 80/90%

its between you and serc

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:44 PM, said:

I just read from the start of d3 through there to the lynch.

Ultama throws out the solid case on mockra (pre reveal)

Serc fires at Gamelon
Fandera practically ignores and sprays supicion in several directions and references the AF symp thing again.


I'm still torn, I'm swaying towards Fandera, but thats likely because Serc did so damned little yesterday.
going for serc in isolation now

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:49 PM, said:

well fuck me that didn't take long.

Serc old buddy, gonna need to hear something from you.

Gamelon/Hamas was the call. It's Either Serc or Fanderay. It's Serc. Gamelon is 100% innocent. It's Fanderay or Serc.


You fault me for being AWOL (and rightly so), but you yourself had little or nothing to say right up until Mockra went down. Then you became chatty cathy all of a sudden. You have become a posting dynamo and the bulk of it boils down to your "gut feeling."


Both you and Fanderay have given Gamelon a pass based solely on one post he made regarding Ultama's vote for Mockra prior to the reveal. It's one thing to throw out a "Okay, maybe you're right about Mockra" post, but he didn't lay down the vote until after the reveal. Without the reveal he (Gamelon) could have waltzed away without another word on the subject of Mockra.


Fanderay is the most active poster and that always raises my hackles. I get all paranoid about scum hanging around "orchestrating" and steering the thread. Yet despite that, I am almost always wrong in that regard. So as far as I can tell from my reading, Fanderay seems legit. In fact, i will wager that Fandy is the player Ultama checked on Night one and is reluctant to ID.


Okay, I still have more reading to do, but my initial suspicions about Gamelon remain and your sudden burst of activity post-Mockra furrows my brow too. I don't know where i stand on Hamas yet.

Alkend's activity did in fact ramp up post-Mockra lynch. Good point

[Gamelon]

Serc, on 06 January 2017 - 03:57 AM, said:

Gamelon, on 06 January 2017 - 03:41 AM, said:

Serc still has not shown up.

On the one hand his low-posting evasive play seems scummy. On the other hand, would scum be so absent at such a crucial stage?

I am going to be able to keep an eye on the thread every two hours or so, so I am going to

Vote Serc

Lets see if that brings him out

Pure coincidence, i assure you!

Uh-huh...

Serc, on 06 January 2017 - 04:15 AM, said:

Hanas, on 05 January 2017 - 11:40 PM, said:

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:03 AM, said:

but Beks death- serc related?

Yes at the time he was the only one expressing suspicion about them and give the phase of the game it would've been very likely to pass unnoticed and potentionally saving Serc trouble further in the game

Nothing passes unnoticed. I'm betting Bek's death had nothing to do with me and everything to do with Bek being Mentalist.

What? What does this even mean?

[Gamelon]

If there isn't a Healer, why didn't Ultama get Nk'd last night?

[Ultama]

@Fande:

I thought about it. Medic/Finder combo indeed sounds strong, but in a 12 player game with 2 killers + symp, scum can potentially close the game in 3 days. So it evens out. I'd be willing to roll the dice. It's not a great solution, but I feel it's better than the alternatives.

To be clear, I'm only suggesting that because I don't have a strong feeling about who of the remaining 4 is the best candidate for a killer, which in my view reduces the situation to a game of numbers. Without a conclusive read on player's behavior, I'm most comfortable optimizing for probability.

vote Night

[Ultama]

@Gamelon: that's a VERY weird question to ask. I was not NK'd, because Omtose was the target of the night action. Duh.

How would Kira know with certainty if there is a medic in game? I don't think he has any more insight into it than we do, but apparently made the same assumption.

[Alkend]

Fear of a healer was my guess.

although the targeting of Ultamas find choice was incrediably coincidental.


I have a few more questions for Ultama as well as some random thoughts.

Why Fanderay N1, with Gamelon slipping a lynch and you being around to change the vote, surely Gamelon was your logic N1 investigation (which led me to that conclusion given your complete reversal on D2)
Mockra on N2, I can sort of see
Why Omtose on N3, he was a replaced player, how often, if ever, have we seen a killer replaced?


on the general front.
I get the maths and logic of a vote for night, but its just something I've never really liked, I'd be more for taking a punt, if we miss ultama have his investigation and the odds are far narrower again (yes I am aware of the maths that this could be D-Day, but again, I've never liked the idea of going to night)
its your guys callif the concensus is night I'll play ball but I'd really rather string up Serc

[Ultama]

Fande and Mockra were the first players to spring into any actual action in this game, so I followed that thread. Omtose was a no-show for most of the game. I was thinking about that N3 read for quite some time and at the very end decided to go with Omtose: I knew we were going to lynch Mockra after the reveal and I didn't want to go into D-Day without a read on a quiet player. Omtose showed signs of activity only when Mockra was going down, so it also helped make the decision. It ended up wrong, but shit happens.