[Hanas]

Or two posts...

Serc, on 04 January 2017 - 03:56 AM, said:

Gamelon, on 30 December 2016 - 04:42 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 30 December 2016 - 04:36 PM, said:

Gamelon, on 30 December 2016 - 01:49 PM, said:

A connection is not immediately evident, but I am suspicious about Serc lowposting and staying out of things while AF gets so much attention

So you don't have any connection between them, but you've decided you'd like to tie them together anyway. There is certainly scope for being suspicious of each individually, but what you've done here is apply some baseless speculation to try and sound more impressive/insightful. This is not the sort of behavior I'd expect from someone trying to root out the truth.

Well, I am sorry to have to disappoint you.

Its an operating hypothesis. I am going to be looking out to see if I can find any supporting evidence.

AF as symp, Serc as scum speculation (or vice-versa, I dunno).

Ultama, on 03 January 2017 - 02:01 PM, said:

I've been re-reading the thread with intention to look at Gamelon, who was my preferred lynch the other day, but the more I'm reading into it, the stronger I feel that our killer has been hiding in plain sight. Hey, Mockra.

Ultama stops looking at Gamelon and starts looking at Mockra, so Gamelon...

Gamelon, on 03 January 2017 - 03:02 PM, said:

So I did a read on Alkend

He has not really registered for me.

He has about 7 posts total, not very substantial at all. the longest one was contributing to the AF train.

He will bear watching. Playing a very quiet game. I will review the Hanas and Mockra readings

Moves on to Alkend for *gasp* low-posting.

Gamelon, on 03 January 2017 - 03:57 PM, said:

Y'know, I think Ultama may have a very good point with Mockra

Now it's Mockra's turn in Gamelon's game of musical chairs.I get the sense that Gamelon has been throwing shit at the wall and hoping something sticks. Looking for backing and when it's lacking he is keen on joining whatever train isn't on him (naturally).


Vote Gamelon until he talks me out of it.

Alright so here's the vote by Serc - the timing is convenient and looks suspicious af. But again it seems a bit too unsubtle for a second killer, especially as I pointed out a similiar connection between the two earlier that day:

Hanas, on 29 December 2016 - 08:52 PM, said:

Mockra's D1 vote for Pallid that put him to lead over Serc(possible partnership? probably would be too obvious imho but it's some connection)

I'm certainly not discarding anything here yet though.

Gamelon, on 04 January 2017 - 11:29 AM, said:

I still think Ultama's case on Mockra is our best option at the moment

- before the reveal - speaks for itself I guess

Alkend, on 04 January 2017 - 11:48 AM, said:

Hanas, on 31 December 2016 - 02:22 AM, said:

Aparal Forge, on 31 December 2016 - 02:13 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 29 December 2016 - 03:21 AM, said:

It is Day 1. 1.25 hours remain, 12 Players still alive: 7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to go to night.1 vote serc:, BO, 7 vote pallid:serc. mockra, Aparal forge, fanderay, hanas, pallid.ultamaPlayers not voted:Gamelon,tulas, Alkend, OmtoseAs per majority rulePallid has been lynchedPallid was Tatts and a detective (RI)Night order time

Path-Shaper, on 29 December 2016 - 03:25 AM, said:

Night order done.Yall wake up to find that Bek Okhan, who was Mentalist and Raye penbar, one of the fbi agents, has been eliminated by kira (ironic since in the series thats the first policeman to die by kiras hands)

From Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia...ers#Raye_Penber

"
However, Light staged the event to get Raye's name so he could kill him. He has a fiancée, retired FBI agent Naomi Misora, whom he tells not to involve herself in the investigation for her own safety. Light manages to track him down and use him "as a pawn""
"

I didn't get this earlier until I decided to bandy around the nameless fact. But then I looked at the lynch and death. If Raye was a "pawn" was HE the symp? I'm not sure if LP slipped up in his role pms, but the difference in the CFs strikes me as odd, and could debunk my theory on pallid. It could have been Tatts just being Tatts *groan*. Not sure if it is what I think, but I'd look into this and my train tomorrow.

I actually think we need not to speculate on this any further.

Aparal Forge, on 31 December 2016 - 02:16 AM, said:

Now go ahead and hammer so I can get my sh password. If I actually caught that in the CFs then I demand MOM.

If that's all then

vote Aparal Forge

this wasn't the post I meant (that was Tulas shorn, will get to next) but this one by Hanas strikes me in two ways, we need not speculate further - because its going to fuck him? or because its poor town play (role spec). Considering how low key and clean his game has been I'm going back to check something from day 2

I actually had my own little theory on the FBI agent that was quite the opposite of her's speculation, if I was right speculation on this matter could've been (or possibly still be) a bit more dangerous than avergae role speculations are.

[Fanderay]

Ultama, on 05 January 2017 - 11:02 PM, said:

I'm lurking and have some thoughts to share, but I'm reluctant to post them before Serc shows up.

That seems reasonable. We really need him to show up soon so we can actually hash this thing out - these things are always painful if nobody is online at the same time and there's no way to have a proper conversation.

I'm about to head to bed so my participation is going to be limited for the next hour or two and then I'm asleep until the morning. But I'll try and keep an eye on the thread in case Serc turns up (plus I'm eager to hear Hanas' thoughts)

EDIT: Crosspost with Hanas' thoughts!

This post has been edited by Fanderay: 05 January 2017 - 11:16 PM

[Hanas]

Fanderay, on 04 January 2017 - 06:44 PM, said:

Right, let's put a vote down then.

Vote Mockra

It'll be interesting to see if there are any counter-claims, but for the time being I'm happy to roll with this. I feel like Ultama's behaviour up to the reveal was genuine - there was a clear pivot from his attention on AF to his going after Mockra today that's consistent with a finder getting a big result.

Fanderay, on 04 January 2017 - 08:46 PM, said:

It's normally worth waiting a little bit to see if there are any counter-claims, so I'm surprised people went all the way through with the lynch so quickly. But I guess we'll see what the CF brings...

You were the first one to vote and then you say this? You asked for evidence but Ultama gave none, yet you were quick to vote. What Omtose said. Also, you asked for evidence but it doesn't look like you exactly cared about it(which I find somehow suspicious because the second killer would know Ultama's legit)

[Hanas]

Fanderay, on 04 January 2017 - 11:18 PM, said:

This exchange on Day 2 stuck in my mind when I was thinking about the implications of Mockra being scum:

Hanas, on 31 December 2016 - 01:47 AM, said:

Mockra, on 31 December 2016 - 12:58 AM, said:

Fanderay, on 31 December 2016 - 12:48 AM, said:

Mockra, on 30 December 2016 - 11:12 PM, said:

I would be fine voting for AF to get a lynch. I will not do so right now because it would put him at L-1, but as long as no other person does something spectacularly stupid I believe AF would be as good a lynch as we are likely to get. Although I do feel the need to mention that I don't believe he is the best lynch for today (I've never seen scum acting so conspicuously before). His lynch will regardless provide valuable information to us.

What do you mean by this Mockra? Because it sounds to me a bit like you're hoping someone does something that gives you an excuse to lynch them. That's not a mentality I'd expect town to have...

That's supposed to cover the possibility that someone on thread says something like "That's why I'm NKing you tonight, you idiot. Also called spectacularly stupid.

Yeah it seems pretty obvious to me, the second option didn't even occur to me, I find it a bit strange that it did to you Fande

It almost felt like Hanas was surprised that I attacked Mockra. At the time I figured it was Hanas trying to put a little bit of heat on me to see if I squirmed, but now it feels like there's an alternative hypothesis. Maybe they were a pair and thought I was their symp? Could explain the gentle "are you sure?" tone to it, which you don't normally see in a Mafia game, an also why Hanas came to Mockra's defense.

Anyway, not 100% convinced by that hypothesis (you have to remember that Hanas dropped a case on Mockra early on Day 2 - we should probably go back and take a look?), but maybe a theory to consider.

EDIT: punctuation.

Sorry but the symp thing makes absolutely no sense to me. Why the hell would a killer publicly post anything with any hint of surprise over someone not looking like their symp anymore after they thought they are the symp? Killers can fish for signals but really why fish for signal directly from someone who DOESN'T look like your symp anymore? Plus with a hint of surprise(not that I see that hint though)?

Also what I said was actually not defence of Mockra, I merely reference their defence - normally I wouldn't mention it but I felt it was appropriate to mention it before the following statement. I still find it weird.
Actually, this could've also been little smart distancing - you expressed suspicion about him that he could easily explain and go on

[Hanas]

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:03 AM, said:

but Beks death- serc related?

Yes at the time he was the only one expressing suspicion about them and give the phase of the game it would've been very likely to pass unnoticed and potentionally saving Serc trouble further in the game

[Hanas]

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:07 AM, said:

Fanderay, on 04 January 2017 - 03:04 PM, said:

Ultama, on 04 January 2017 - 02:49 PM, said:

I was feeling strongly about lynching her, but I'd rather admit a mistake than chase my own tail trying to think of possible configurations if she was a symp.

OK, that's basically what I was fishing for. Reading back, your play for the first couple of days was pretty single-minded in your pursuit of AF, and you've pivoted pretty smoothly onto Mockra from there. How would you compare your level of conviction now with your feelings on AF Days 1 and 2?

fishing for a claim, surprised your team mate is suddenly catching flak? after Hanas was the one to vote for him out the gap D2 and you threw a bit of suspicion at Hanas (the mid length post I quoted.... pre Mockra lynch?)

If they were fishing for this trying to figure out how serious the situation of their partner is, why say this on thread?

[Hanas]

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 02:05 PM, said:

I think Gamelon is not the killer because you investigated him night 1

At this situation on D2:

Hanas, on 28 December 2016 - 09:41 PM, said:

Should be now:

7 to lynch

1 vote Serc
4 votes Pallid
2 vote Tulas
3 votes Gamelon
1 vote AF

Ultama did this:

Ultama, on 28 December 2016 - 09:54 PM, said:

Well in the current circumstances it looks like I have to give you the benefit of the doubt anyway and go for the lynch.

remov vote

vote Gamelon

I highly doubt that's the case Alkend

[Hanas]

Fanderay, on 05 January 2017 - 02:24 PM, said:

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 02:05 PM, said:

I think Gamelon is not the killer because you investigated him night 1

The fact that you have assumed this without confirmation seems to indicate you aren't analyzing things logically.

On the one hand, I'm pleased to see Alkend actually talking today - makes it easier to get a read. On the other hand, that sudden step up in activity is quite an anomaly - possible the lynch of his partner has forced him to break from his low-posting style?

Might be something to this. I've got nothing on Alkend until Mockra's lynch. Then this. Based on content I'm still seeing them as more likely town than scum but I'm little less sure than I was a while ago

[Hanas]

Fanderay, on 05 January 2017 - 08:54 PM, said:

- The other issue I have is on a bit of a taboo subject - the NK. Now I know what you're thinking - WIFOM all the way down. But in this case I think there's an important question to be asked: why wouldn't scum try to NK Ultama? A revealed finder is surely more of a threat than a player who has barely posted anything (and therefore is likely to be quite a useful player to hold up as possible scum on later days). The only thing I can think of is that the scum did not have time to change the NK before the lynch. Hanas is the only remaining player in the game who wasn't on the Mockra train. So if the Omtose NK is as a result of scum not being around to change their orders, then Hanas would seem to be the prime candidate.

As a result I'd definitely put him above Gamelon on my 'scum likelihood' ranking list. Need to mull over where he stands in comparison to Serc.

That seems like too much wifom even for someone who admits it's wifom

And what Alkend said, yeah I don't like this one bit either.

[Fanderay]

I get that there's an element of WIFOM to it, but I also think sometimes people take any whiff of it to mean the two sides of the coin are 50/50. All I'm saying here is that if ever there was a situation where the odds were stacked to one side of the WIFOM table, it would be this one. Finders are lethal to scum when there are few players left.

EDIT: tyop

This post has been edited by Fanderay: 06 January 2017 - 12:01 AM

[Hanas]

Fanderay, on 06 January 2017 - 12:00 AM, said:

I get that there's an element of WIFOM to it, but I also think sometimes people take any whiff of it to mean the two sides of the coin are 50/50. All I'm saying here is that if ever there was a situation where the odds were stacked to one side of the WIFOM table, it would be this one. Finders are lethal to scum when there are few players left.

EDIT: tyop

Failed NKs can be aswell.

Editing a typo into your post is something new though

[Alkend]

Hanas, on 05 January 2017 - 11:46 PM, said:

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 02:05 PM, said:

I think Gamelon is not the killer because you investigated him night 1

At this situation on D2:

Hanas, on 28 December 2016 - 09:41 PM, said:

Should be now:

7 to lynch

1 vote Serc
4 votes Pallid
2 vote Tulas
3 votes Gamelon
1 vote AF

Ultama did this:

Ultama, on 28 December 2016 - 09:54 PM, said:

Well in the current circumstances it looks like I have to give you the benefit of the doubt anyway and go for the lynch.

remov vote

vote Gamelon

I highly doubt that's the case Alkend

That was day one.
He backed of entirely D2.
So.....

[Alkend]

Path-Shaper, on 29 December 2016 - 03:21 AM, said:

It is Day 1. 1.25 hours remain,

12 Players still alive:

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to go to night.

1 vote serc:, BO,
7 vote pallid:serc. mockra, Aparal forge, fanderay, hanas, pallid.ultama


Players not voted:Gamelon,tulas, Alkend, Omtose

As per majority rule

Pallid has been lynched

Pallid was Tatts and a detective (RI)

Night order time

He then switched to pallid reluctantly to get the lynch.
Stating he suspected Hamelin more.

D2, not interested.

I wonder how you misinterpreted that so badly

[Alkend]

Serc mockra 1/2 on the train doesn't scream team to me, might go back over the day 2 train and possibly look how those votes got laid down.
On phone though and reading Plague of Swords, so it will be skim reading

[Hanas]

Hanas, on 05 January 2017 - 11:15 PM, said:

Gamelon, on 04 January 2017 - 11:29 AM, said:

I still think Ultama's case on Mockra is our best option at the moment

- before the reveal - speaks for itself I guess

Hmm, unless the second killer suspected Ultama's the finder and their case was based on a find of Mockra. The flavour heavily suggests presence of a finder in from of L, the killers suspecting this is possible now that I think on it.

[Alkend]

We'll put it to bed when serc finally shows and ultama reveals but I'm reasonably confident on this front.

I'm skimming through and Fanderay does an awful lot of asking what other players think and what their take on cases/actions is

[Hanas]

Alkend, on 06 January 2017 - 12:07 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 29 December 2016 - 03:21 AM, said:

It is Day 1. 1.25 hours remain,

12 Players still alive:

7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to go to night.

1 vote serc:, BO,
7 vote pallid:serc. mockra, Aparal forge, fanderay, hanas, pallid.ultama


Players not voted:Gamelon,tulas, Alkend, Omtose

As per majority rule

Pallid has been lynched

Pallid was Tatts and a detective (RI)

Night order time

He then switched to pallid reluctantly to get the lynch.
Stating he suspected Hamelin more.

D2, not interested.

I wonder how you misinterpreted that so badly

Ah, I didn't even check it when I went for the quotes. I've had Ultama as not Gamelon's partner with connection to the vote in memory since Fande mentioned it in a post while ago, for some reason I was assuming it was D2. I guess I skipped that concrete part when rereading because of that too.

[Alkend]

Me oh my Hanas, you know how I love such mistakes.

[Fanderay]

Alkend, on 06 January 2017 - 12:14 AM, said:

We'll put it to bed when serc finally shows and ultama reveals but I'm reasonably confident on this front.

I'm skimming through and Fanderay does an awful lot of asking what other players think and what their take on cases/actions is

When nobody is talking I find it useful to ask direct questions. You're more likely to get an answer that way.

[Alkend]

Fair enough. It's just something that always rubs me the wrong way, along with 'oh silly me what a mistake I just made' ala Hana's two posts ago. He's now dropped to 60/70%

I'm going to sleep remove vote
For now. But I am more than ready and willing to throw it back on when the rest of the party shows up