[Ultama]

Fanderay, on 05 January 2017 - 12:17 PM, said:

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:03 AM, said:

Hanas I scratched off the list because he first out of the traps to vote Mockra D2, without any real shade being thrown at mockra and its a reasonably solid post not a throwaway distancing post. so he is town imo
I am town
Ultama is town
Gamelon is town.


so its Serc or Fanderay. I'm just torn as I have a few things scribbled down for each. rereading.
but Beks death- serc related?
Fanderay, when the Gamelon train failed, made sure that AF was seen as a sympish lynch kind of, to set up the game train again 9need to verify that one)

What's your reasoning behind Gamelon being town, sorry? I must have missed that.

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 12:29 PM, said:

its fairly simple.
Gamelon is, imo, 100% not our killer
I am 100% not our killer
unless ultama is a fucking genious, imo 100% not our killer
Hanas I'm probably at about 80/90%

its between you and serc

So, um, you think that Gamelon is not the killer because... you think Gamelon is not the killer?

Also, Serc, come on out!

[Alkend]

I think Gamelon is not the killer because you investigated him night 1

[Fanderay]

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 02:05 PM, said:

I think Gamelon is not the killer because you investigated him night 1

I'm going to wait until I hear from Ultama before I believe that, thanks. And I trust Ultama to reveal that information when they think it's relevant. The fact that you have assumed this without confirmation seems to indicate you aren't analyzing things logically.

On the one hand, I'm pleased to see Alkend actually talking today - makes it easier to get a read. On the other hand, that sudden step up in activity is quite an anomaly - possible the lynch of his partner has forced him to break from his low-posting style?

Got four players to look over, so I'll be dipping in and out while I'm at work.

[Alkend]

Well literally, and I mean literally in the entirely correct use of the word, nothing happened in the 12 hours after I knocked off for the night.

And no one seems keen on doing much today and Ultama seems to be waiting for everyone else to pitch in before confirming this, and that's fine, but you asked and then he pulled me on my evasion. what else could I say? I'm not seeing anything from the other players so I laid out where I was at, and finally when people still haven't played ball, why I was there.

I'm heading closer to voting Fanderay, and the only thing holding me back is the very real possibility that Serc is playing the low lying scum and holding his breath waiting for someone to make a move

[Gamelon]

After a read, I really can't pin anything on Hanas.

I think he is Town

Fanderay has played a Town game but is giving me bad vibes

[Gamelon]

Serc, on 04 January 2017 - 03:56 AM, said:

Gamelon, on 30 December 2016 - 04:42 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 30 December 2016 - 04:36 PM, said:

Gamelon, on 30 December 2016 - 01:49 PM, said:

A connection is not immediately evident, but I am suspicious about Serc lowposting and staying out of things while AF gets so much attention

So you don't have any connection between them, but you've decided you'd like to tie them together anyway. There is certainly scope for being suspicious of each individually, but what you've done here is apply some baseless speculation to try and sound more impressive/insightful. This is not the sort of behavior I'd expect from someone trying to root out the truth.

Well, I am sorry to have to disappoint you.

Its an operating hypothesis. I am going to be looking out to see if I can find any supporting evidence.

AF as symp, Serc as scum speculation (or vice-versa, I dunno).

Ultama, on 03 January 2017 - 02:01 PM, said:

I've been re-reading the thread with intention to look at Gamelon, who was my preferred lynch the other day, but the more I'm reading into it, the stronger I feel that our killer has been hiding in plain sight. Hey, Mockra.

Ultama stops looking at Gamelon and starts looking at Mockra, so Gamelon...

Gamelon, on 03 January 2017 - 03:02 PM, said:

So I did a read on Alkend

He has not really registered for me.

He has about 7 posts total, not very substantial at all. the longest one was contributing to the AF train.

He will bear watching. Playing a very quiet game. I will review the Hanas and Mockra readings

Moves on to Alkend for *gasp* low-posting.

Gamelon, on 03 January 2017 - 03:57 PM, said:

Y'know, I think Ultama may have a very good point with Mockra

Now it's Mockra's turn in Gamelon's game of musical chairs.I get the sense that Gamelon has been throwing shit at the wall and hoping something sticks. Looking for backing and when it's lacking he is keen on joining whatever train isn't on him (naturally).


Vote Gamelon until he talks me out of it.

Serc on the other hand, appears, jumps at me, votes, and disappears.

My money is on Serc for scum now

[Fanderay]

Right, I'm going to go through the players in turn, starting with Gamelon:

OK, so I think with hindsight I might have been a bit too fixated on Gamelon for the first few days. His playstyle in general has been reasonable and measured, and I don't think he's approaching the current situation in the way a scum would. Despite the fact I've been pushing for him to be lynched since Day 1, he hasn't pushed back at me at all - that OMGUS impulse is one that runs strong in scum players, especially when they know they have something to hide, so it speaks well of him that he didn't have the same urge.

Apart from those general impressions, he was pro-Mockra lynch prior to Ultama's reveal. Part of that was the other option on the table was him, but it does seem like a plus point in his favour.

[Fanderay]

Now it's Serc's turn. Serc hasn't been around very much, which makes it difficult to get a good read. Comes off as quite sarcastic when pressured, doesn't seem to have much to contribute to the game for the first two days.

But then on Day 3, he comes in with a big case on Gamelon:

Serc, on 04 January 2017 - 03:56 AM, said:

Gamelon, on 30 December 2016 - 04:42 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 30 December 2016 - 04:36 PM, said:

Gamelon, on 30 December 2016 - 01:49 PM, said:

A connection is not immediately evident, but I am suspicious about Serc lowposting and staying out of things while AF gets so much attention

So you don't have any connection between them, but you've decided you'd like to tie them together anyway. There is certainly scope for being suspicious of each individually, but what you've done here is apply some baseless speculation to try and sound more impressive/insightful. This is not the sort of behavior I'd expect from someone trying to root out the truth.

Well, I am sorry to have to disappoint you.

Its an operating hypothesis. I am going to be looking out to see if I can find any supporting evidence.

AF as symp, Serc as scum speculation (or vice-versa, I dunno).

Ultama, on 03 January 2017 - 02:01 PM, said:

I've been re-reading the thread with intention to look at Gamelon, who was my preferred lynch the other day, but the more I'm reading into it, the stronger I feel that our killer has been hiding in plain sight. Hey, Mockra.

Ultama stops looking at Gamelon and starts looking at Mockra, so Gamelon...

Gamelon, on 03 January 2017 - 03:02 PM, said:

So I did a read on Alkend

He has not really registered for me.

He has about 7 posts total, not very substantial at all. the longest one was contributing to the AF train.

He will bear watching. Playing a very quiet game. I will review the Hanas and Mockra readings

Moves on to Alkend for *gasp* low-posting.

Gamelon, on 03 January 2017 - 03:57 PM, said:

Y'know, I think Ultama may have a very good point with Mockra

Now it's Mockra's turn in Gamelon's game of musical chairs.I get the sense that Gamelon has been throwing shit at the wall and hoping something sticks. Looking for backing and when it's lacking he is keen on joining whatever train isn't on him (naturally).

Vote Gamelon until he talks me out of it.

Now, the big thing here is the timing. This comes very shortly after Ultama's initial case against Mockra, so it fits the narrative of scum trying to take the heat off his partner quite well. It created an alternative to a Mockra lynch that was holding up until Ultama's reveal (some of that is on me though - I was a bit too blinkered in my Gamelon focus at that point).


That piece of action makes me suspicious of Serc. His play pattern definitely fits with low-posting scum, up to and including the post on Day 2 in which he suggested the scum were hiding amongst the high-frequency posters. I've definitely got him as more likely scum than Gamelon, anyway.

[Fanderay]

Next is Hanas. I did a summary of why I didn't think they were all that scummy on Day 3, and not a whole lot has changed since then. The reason being he has barely been around - only two posts since the end of Day 2 and one of them was wishing the thread a Happy New Year!

So, character-wise he has seemed pretty town-ish. There are two things about him that make me concerned though:

- I've already trailed the first one earlier - he had some interactions with me that gave off the vibe of scum who were surprised to find that the player they thought was their symp wasn't.
- The other issue I have is on a bit of a taboo subject - the NK. Now I know what you're thinking - WIFOM all the way down. But in this case I think there's an important question to be asked: why wouldn't scum try to NK Ultama? A revealed finder is surely more of a threat than a player who has barely posted anything (and therefore is likely to be quite a useful player to hold up as possible scum on later days). The only thing I can think of is that the scum did not have time to change the NK before the lynch. Hanas is the only remaining player in the game who wasn't on the Mockra train. So if the Omtose NK is as a result of scum not being around to change their orders, then Hanas would seem to be the prime candidate.

As a result I'd definitely put him above Gamelon on my 'scum likelihood' ranking list. Need to mull over where he stands in comparison to Serc.

[Alkend]

oh for christs sake.

vote Fanderay

you suddenly find Gamelon to be town, Serc 9the other lynch candidate imo) to be scummy as hell and then through NK WIFOM at Hanas, who was first to drop a serious vote on Mockra (D2)

I figured Ultama survived for the simple mathematics fear.

one roled town does not balance a potential 2 killer symp combo. potential healer in the mix.

[Alkend]

I've been catching up on the 99, have 2/3 eps left of season three. so will be here every 20/25 mins

[Fanderay]

Last up is Alkend. Character-wise he was playful in the early game with his joke vote on Serc. Other than that he was dead quiet until he sprung to life late on Day 3, at which point he's been doing a lot of posting and analysis.


So what has he actually done regarding Mockra? This was an interesting post, after Ultama's original case on Mockra but prior to the reveal:

Alkend, on 04 January 2017 - 12:10 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 03 January 2017 - 01:26 PM, said:

I've had a look at Hanas' posts. A lot of their behaviour looks town-ish to me. At the back of my mind I'm wondering whether or not it's a front for a smooth talking scum, but for now I'd suggest looking at other targets. Here are some highlights:

- This post from day 1 is the sort of thing I wouldn't expect to see from scum, who like to keep their heads down. A same post vote/remove can often be jumped on by players looking for anything unusual to get the game moving.

- On Day 1, he was (correctly, as it turns out) skeptical of Tulas Shorn being scum. There could have been a lynch there if scum wanted to push it, but he didn't (admittedly, several others had already expressed similar sentiments on thread, so perhaps he was just following the way the wind was blowing).

- He was third on the train on Gamelon that built on Day 1 but didn't get there in time. Reasoning seems good enough at that point in the day (we were short on time). I think we can probably rule out a Hanas-Gamelon scum combination on this basis. Although it should be noted that since this point he has backed off Gamelon considerably, even going as far as to drop a vote on someone putting a case forward on Gamelon (Mockra).

- On Day 2 he started with a vote on Mockra. It didn't get much traction because everyone else seemed pretty focused on Aparal Forge. I found this post interesting because it was in a style (vote in the middle of a big post that seemed a little plumped up) that doesn't seem to mesh with his style of play (which seems to find long posts suspicious), but that's a fairly minor issue.

- He and Mockra are the only players that have actually tried to put any pressure on me. His first prod was to get me to share thoughts about who I don't have a read on, then later he disagreed on a reading of one of Mockra's posts. I like players who I can see asking questions on thread. It shows they're investigating and trying to get their head around the game. To me this feels like fairly reasonable town behaviour, since he seems to be coming to Mockra's defense, a player that he had previously dropped a vote on. (My real question is, why hasn't anyone else been doing it? Pressure and interactions are the key to this game, but few people seem to be trying to generate either!)

So, after all that I feel like Hanas isn't all that high up in my list of suspicions. There's a read of his behaviour that his Day 2 vote for Mockra could have been aggressive distancing, especially when coupled with his slight defense of Mockra later on in the day. That train never had any traction and he was able to step off it to drop the hammer pretty easily. But for now that's not my operating hypothesis.

this was the post.

Its the first real attention hanas has caught, within 2 posts of this Ultama throws out a lengthy post with a case and vote on Mockra, which also includes a Gamelon name drop. Reading Ultama in isolation doesn't really turn anything in that respect, the only time Hanas even shows up in his posts is a nested quote. It would be a stretch to label this a symp and distraction situation but it was Ultamams first real interest in Mockra, and so hard on the heels of the only scrutiny Hanas had recieved it perked my interest.

I currently have no real clue where I will be voting today.

One reading of this is an attempt to cast doubt on Ultama's case. Having said that, part of that could be that it was quite a surprising display of aggression from a player who up until that point had been laser focused on AF. I remember having a similar feeling at the time, so I can't really hold that against him.

I do find it weird that he put Gamelon at 100% likelihood of town. That just seems way too bold a claim for this stage of the game. He seems to be saying that he believes this because Ultama has done a find on Gamelon, but while that may be the case, it seems far too strong to put that likelihood at 100%. I'm on the lookout for dodgy logic at this stage in the game because that's what ends up spewing out when scum have their backs against the wall. But Alkend doesn't exactly have his back against the wall at this point, so I'm probably going to put this in the 'unusual' category, rather than the 'scummy' category at this point.

[Fanderay]

After all that, my suspicion rankings would be:

Serc
Hanas
Alkend
Gamelon

[Fanderay]

Alkend, on 05 January 2017 - 09:08 PM, said:

oh for christs sake.

vote Fanderay

you suddenly find Gamelon to be town, Serc 9the other lynch candidate imo) to be scummy as hell and then through NK WIFOM at Hanas, who was first to drop a serious vote on Mockra (D2)

I figured Ultama survived for the simple mathematics fear.

one roled town does not balance a potential 2 killer symp combo. potential healer in the mix.

That is an accurate summation of my last few posts, yes. I do appreciate that Hanas voted for Mockra, but that is the traditional part of the game to do distancing if you're going to do it. I find the reactions to the Day 3 case more interesting than Day 2 play, and there Gamelon has the edge.

[Alkend]

alright what the hell.
what is going on, where is people?

serc, hanas, gamelon, ultama.

show yourselves and fucking speak

[Ultama]

I'm lurking and have some thoughts to share, but I'm reluctant to post them before Serc shows up.

[Ultama]

Oh and good point, where the fuck is Hanas

[Alkend]

I'm back in bed and I'm relatively sure they haven't posted since I last got into bed (Serc and Hana's anyway for sure)

Poke poke gentlemen

[Hanas]

Been here reading through the thread for some time now, was intending to post as my thoughts as I go but instead ended up just writing it into one post

Btw yesterday I came here after the lynch but before resolution, as confused and supicious about everyone else alive as I was I went straight to bed instead

[Hanas]

Well might as well post the post in its current state then

The D1 exchange between Mockra and Fande packed into one handy quote

Fanderay, on 27 December 2016 - 10:57 PM, said:

Mockra, on 27 December 2016 - 08:31 AM, said:

Fanderay, on 27 December 2016 - 08:24 AM, said:

Mockra, on 27 December 2016 - 02:00 AM, said:

Fanderay, on 27 December 2016 - 01:00 AM, said:

So, the game is officially afoot! Anyone actually going to say anything now the timer is running?

What's stopping you from doing it?

It seemed churlish not to offer everyone else the opportunity before diving in. After all, manners maketh man (or in this case, giant dog thing).

You didn't offer anyone anything.

You posted the easiest possible thing that would get you out of "low-poster" accusations 72 hours from now. At the same time putting yourself in a position to accuse others of the same thing. I don't think that's the optimal play for scum (it draws too much attention and it's too amateurish), but it is a lazy way to play town.

The other possibility is that you're the symp of course.

Oooh, someone's spiky! I'm surprised you think 'low-poster' accusations are something I'd need to actively avoid - a quick look at the post counts would reveal that I'm currently the highest posting player . But it's nice to see people doing some early game poking. What surprises me is how quick everyone has been to declare your accusation baseless. Normally I'd expect at least someone else to put a bit of pressure on, even if they're forcing it a little bit (because let's face it, everyone's forcing it when it comes to Day 1 cases ).

Might go and take another look at some of those evaluations of your case and see if anything sticks out.

Mockra, on 28 December 2016 - 12:35 PM, said:

I find it sad and rather offensive that people think I made a "case" against Fanderay. He was being annoying and I tried to shut him up. The least I do while making a case is vote for the idiot I'm accusing.

Fanderay(0): He is annoying.

In the end Fande finds Mockra's post town-like and Mockra claims he'd like to vote Fande but his reason is absolutely shite. Given it's D1 I can imagine this being an exchange between two killers.

Hanas, on 28 December 2016 - 09:39 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 28 December 2016 - 09:26 PM, said:

Hanas, on 28 December 2016 - 09:21 PM, said:

Bek is probably the most supicious to me at the moment, middle road without causing any waves, but nobody else has expressed suspicions about them but I was waiting with my vote for what they will ahve to say when they come here and thought there's more time remaining

I'd still like to vote for AF but Fande's "case" on Gamelon has some points and I would like to see Gam lynched rather than Pallid although Gam has only few connections

vote Gamelon

I can see your point on BO - I've got him at the top of my 'make sure we turn over that rock tomorrow' list, as I don't really have a great read on him so far.

Hmm, why have you not shared that list? IF you died AND CFed town then we surely would find that useful? Now I'm wondering, did your knowledge about one of these conditions being false stopped you from sharing it?

My sentiments from earlier, now I'm again wodnering if this signifies something.


Right at the start of D2 Mockra votes Gamelon who was very nearly lynched on D1. Although admittedly lynches like this(of someone who was nearly lynched the day bafore) weren't happeing very often(maybe not at all).

Because people kept bringing this up - I didn't find Gamelon falling asleep before dropping a vote particularly scummy.