[Fanderay]

Gamelon, on 04 January 2017 - 10:53 AM, said:

Fanderay, on 04 January 2017 - 10:12 AM, said:

Gamelon - given the hypothesis that AF was a symp, it seems to me that the most likely master would be you. Reason being that (1) AF started kicking up a fuss on Day 1 right after you got a couple of votes on you (and in fact was one of the reasons we ended up lynching Pallid instead), and then (2) when Mockra dropped a vote on you on Day 2 she did the same again.

Now generally I like to avoid continuing to push a case on someone I went after on Day 1 on the basis that Day 1 votes are mostly random and the chances are that hypothesis developed after a few players have been killed are likely to be more accurate (textbook Monty Hall Problem scenario). But here I'm starting to think that you're the person that AF was trying to defend - there's certainly no reason for a symp to go off like AF did unless their master is in danger of some kind.

When AF starts his shenanigans I only had one vote on me. Hardly something to send a symp into a panic

Actually Pallid dropped a second vote on you at 19:08 GMT, then AF puts up her hot-air signaling case at 19:23 GMT. So at that point you, Pallid and Tulas Shorn all had two votes.

Also, note the following from AF:

Aparal Forge, on 29 December 2016 - 05:28 PM, said:

Gamelon, on 29 December 2016 - 01:59 PM, said:

Ok so AF seems to be a lot of noise but lacking a bit in substance and I think Fand and Hanas refuted him very effectively here.

<snipping bunch of quotes>

So I am currently reading AF as a symp

If I were a symp then who am I symping? From Fanderay's posts it must be YOU.

I think from yesterday there was resistance to a TS lynch. It looked like most people were willing to PI him over his whiney self vote. I do not see this as town behavior. There could have also been resistance to a Gamelon lynch. While I thought the case on you yesterday was weak sauce, I am curious about which other players may have been avoiding you.

I'm not quite sure what to make of that. WIFOM?

[Fanderay]

Ultama, on 04 January 2017 - 10:54 AM, said:

Good job replying to remark that's much less important and skipping the crucial one. Yes, timing checks out (lame point Fandy, BTW), but we still don't know why you didn't vote.

Yeah, I'm sorry. That wasn't really a great line of argument...

[Gamelon]

Ultama, on 04 January 2017 - 10:54 AM, said:

Gamelon, on 04 January 2017 - 10:46 AM, said:

Fanderay, on 04 January 2017 - 10:30 AM, said:

Mockra, on 04 January 2017 - 04:57 AM, said:

Gamelon, on 29 December 2016 - 01:47 PM, said:

Right, to address both your concerns, the simple answer is that after talking Tulas off the ledge I fell asleep. I had already answered Fand's case to which he never really posted a rebuttal. As for my comment on nothing springing to the eye which seemed to tick people off, I meant that nothing had stood out except for the stuff I noticed last time (which Fand very kindly quoted in post 102). The exception was of course suicidal Tulas who I directly addressed. Now, all this AF stuff is pretty new to me, so if you will excuse me, I have some reading to do

Answer to my (and Fand's) pressure on him early yesterday:

I fell asleep.

Okay, fair enough.

Just thought I'd go back through the timings here.

Gamelon's last post on Day 1 was at 18:23 GMT.
Day 1 was supposed to time out at 22:00 GMT

So Gamelon should have known he wouldn't be back before timeout and dropped a vote before he left. In addition, who goes to sleep at 18:23 GMT? It's too early for Europe, it's too late for Australia, it's too early for the US...

There are other continents you know...

Good job replying to remark that's much less important and skipping the crucial one. Yes, timing checks out (lame point Fandy, BTW), but we still don't know why you didn't vote.

As referenced above, I fell asleep.

I should clarify, I did not intend to, I had my phone open, but well.... guess I was tired.

I did not vote before as I was not convinced of any of the cases. I talked Tulas off the ledge myself and I was never completely convinced of the Pallid lynch. Unlike a lot of people here, I don't vote at the drop of a hat.

[Gamelon]

If you actually look at Af's play

Aparal Forge, on 28 December 2016 - 06:49 PM, said:

ok I'm finally back and reading up.

Aparal Forge, on 28 December 2016 - 06:50 PM, said:

Bek Okhan, on 26 December 2016 - 10:14 PM, said:

*I'm kind of around, but playing tech support to all the new gadgetry my family bought for the holidays, so not really*

Yes... we just had a computer crisis this morning.

Aparal Forge, on 28 December 2016 - 06:53 PM, said:

Pallid, on 27 December 2016 - 12:37 PM, said:

vote tulas shorn

Because he wants me to.

This reeks of signaling.

Aparal Forge, on 28 December 2016 - 06:56 PM, said:

Pallid, on 27 December 2016 - 06:07 PM, said:

Tulas Shorn, on 25 December 2016 - 08:58 PM, said:

I exist, and now I hope to see some others in here soon.

Hmm, should I start trying to speculate on roles to see how fast I get lynched?

No real reason for pickung Tulas out of the hat except I slightly didn't like the question.

It's like he is daring us to vote for him. So I obliged.

I see your point from past games.

Aparal Forge, on 28 December 2016 - 06:58 PM, said:

Bek Okhan, on 27 December 2016 - 11:12 PM, said:

vote Serc




because of all the joke votes that one makes the least sense.

And Alkend's vote on Serc didn't bother you?

[Alkend]

I think I have the plague

[Gamelon]

You will note that he made a whole series of posts before Pallid's vote.

He clearly had a plan of action and I don't think Pallid's vote changed that.

Aparal Forge, on 28 December 2016 - 07:04 PM, said:

Mockra, on 28 December 2016 - 12:35 PM, said:

TS does sound weird, but I think he is just a townie who has confused the "It's fine if you die as town" with "Roll over and die if you are targeted as town".

I find it sad and rather offensive that people think I made a "case" against Fanderay. He was being annoying and I tried to shut him up. The least I do while making a case is vote for the idiot I'm accusing.

I'm not sure who to vote for right now. On one hand, Pallid suddenly voted for AP and left their vote there for some reason. On the other hand, there are two votes on Serc and one vote on Alkend (I think) because of early day jokes. Since I wouldn't be able to check the thread before the day ends, these are the choices I have:

Pallid (0): Unexplained vote. Has five posts. One of them is his check in. One of them is a joke vote on TS. Another one explains the joke reasoning for his TS vote. The fourth is an unexplained vote for AP and the fifth doesn't say anything useful at all.

Aparal Forge(1): He already has a vote on him and we need a lynch. I don't think this is good enough. Although he is the second lowest poster in the game and that makes me want to kill him.

Alkend(1): Only has two posts. One of them is the regular hail and the other one is a joke vote on Serc. Again a low poster that I would be totally support a lynch on under normal day1 circumstances.

Serc(2): His first post is a joke vote, his second post is a joke. The third joke is something meta (which is against the rules btw), the fourth is another joke (actually I just realized he also has a "hello" post on the first page). One Alkend vote and another BO vote. The Alkend vote is a joke and the BO vote is based on gut because his humor(?) is unnatural.

Fanderay(0): He is annoying.

I would be fine voting 2-5 under normal circumstances. However, the weird and tbh, rather suspicious behavior of Pallid cannot and should not be ignored.

Vote Pallid

I will try to be back around day end, but no guarantees.

Well SORRY for not having posted much yet. We do have 48 hour days so I took my time getting back.

Pallid, on 28 December 2016 - 07:08 PM, said:

vote gamelon

I like what Fanderay had to say about them and their latest post aggravates me. Possible scum for sure.

Aparal Forge, on 28 December 2016 - 07:11 PM, said:

Pallid, on 28 December 2016 - 07:08 PM, said:

vote gamelon

I like what Fanderay had to say about them and their latest post aggravates me. Possible scum for sure.

Is there anyone you haven't voted for yet?

Pallid, on 28 December 2016 - 07:12 PM, said:

About 7 others I think 😁😀😂😃

Aparal Forge, on 28 December 2016 - 07:23 PM, said:

So WTF?!

Pallid votes Tulas
Serc votes Pallid
Alkend votes Serc
Pallid votes AP (me)
Hanas joke votes Tulas and removes
Bek votes Serc
Fanderay votes Alkend
Mockra votes Pallid
Fanderay votes Gamelon
Pallid votes
Ultama votes Tulas
Tulas crybaby votes self
Pallid votes Gamelon

So my initial thought is that Pallid was signaling to Tulas, and TS's partner Serc or Alkend? Immediately reacted. Not sure what to make of the self-vote, but that could be trying to distance from his partner.

Anywhoo...

vote Tulas

[Gamelon]

I still think Ultama's case on Mockra is our best option at the moment

[Alkend]

I think that last post of yours would suggest otherwise. If AF was symping anyone it's you.

However I am reluctant to follow a train based on a supposed symp (despite likely hood of that being the case) there was a post I recall reading in the aftermath of the AF lynch that shouted at me, going back to find it now. for some reason I think it might have bee Fanderay

[Gamelon]

Is anyone else having a lot of trouble with the forum? Pages don't seem to be loading

[Hanas]

Been really busy last two days, probably won't have much more time today (or tommorow) but I'll read up and be here before timeout

[Alkend]

Hanas, on 31 December 2016 - 02:22 AM, said:

Aparal Forge, on 31 December 2016 - 02:13 AM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 29 December 2016 - 03:21 AM, said:

It is Day 1. 1.25 hours remain, 12 Players still alive: 7 votes to lynch, 6 votes to go to night.1 vote serc:, BO, 7 vote pallid:serc. mockra, Aparal forge, fanderay, hanas, pallid.ultamaPlayers not voted:Gamelon,tulas, Alkend, OmtoseAs per majority rulePallid has been lynchedPallid was Tatts and a detective (RI)Night order time

Path-Shaper, on 29 December 2016 - 03:25 AM, said:

Night order done.Yall wake up to find that Bek Okhan, who was Mentalist and Raye penbar, one of the fbi agents, has been eliminated by kira (ironic since in the series thats the first policeman to die by kiras hands)

From Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia...ers#Raye_Penber

"
However, Light staged the event to get Raye's name so he could kill him. He has a fiancée, retired FBI agent Naomi Misora, whom he tells not to involve herself in the investigation for her own safety. Light manages to track him down and use him "as a pawn""
"

I didn't get this earlier until I decided to bandy around the nameless fact. But then I looked at the lynch and death. If Raye was a "pawn" was HE the symp? I'm not sure if LP slipped up in his role pms, but the difference in the CFs strikes me as odd, and could debunk my theory on pallid. It could have been Tatts just being Tatts *groan*. Not sure if it is what I think, but I'd look into this and my train tomorrow.

I actually think we need not to speculate on this any further.

Aparal Forge, on 31 December 2016 - 02:16 AM, said:

Now go ahead and hammer so I can get my sh password. If I actually caught that in the CFs then I demand MOM.

If that's all then

vote Aparal Forge

this wasn't the post I meant (that was Tulas shorn, will get to next) but this one by Hanas strikes me in two ways, we need not speculate further - because its going to fuck him? or because its poor town play (role spec). Considering how low key and clean his game has been I'm going back to check something from day 2

[Alkend]

Gamelon, on 30 December 2016 - 01:49 PM, said:

Fanderay, on 30 December 2016 - 11:40 AM, said:

Gamelon, on 30 December 2016 - 05:25 AM, said:

So having had a look at Serc, he really has not done much.

I am considering a noisy symp-quiet scum combo involving AF and Serc.

Replying to Hanas, I voted AF as he was the only who struck me as scummy at that time. My vote is going to stay there until we get something new, hopefully from Serc.

Also Mockra might bear scrutiny. That early labelling of Fand as symp irks me.

What's your reasoning behind linking AF and Serc? I don't see any connection between them...

A connection is not immediately evident, but I am suspicious about Serc lowposting and staying out of things while AF gets so much attention

this is not the droid I was looking for. (I'm still looking for the post by somebody or other who pulls together a case based on Hanas getting no heat and seeming very pro town and iirc correctly there was a vote in another direction (gamelon) iommeadiately after.
but this post by Gamelon now. I don't think a connection is immeadiately evident because I haven't seen any, however it is a classic set up for a serc train (which he has subsequently not really followed up on (not fully confirmed, reread not complete) with the AF lynch and RI flip already confirmed as a symp.
unhappy with this

[Alkend]

Fanderay, on 03 January 2017 - 01:26 PM, said:

I've had a look at Hanas' posts. A lot of their behaviour looks town-ish to me. At the back of my mind I'm wondering whether or not it's a front for a smooth talking scum, but for now I'd suggest looking at other targets. Here are some highlights:

- This post from day 1 is the sort of thing I wouldn't expect to see from scum, who like to keep their heads down. A same post vote/remove can often be jumped on by players looking for anything unusual to get the game moving.

- On Day 1, he was (correctly, as it turns out) skeptical of Tulas Shorn being scum. There could have been a lynch there if scum wanted to push it, but he didn't (admittedly, several others had already expressed similar sentiments on thread, so perhaps he was just following the way the wind was blowing).

- He was third on the train on Gamelon that built on Day 1 but didn't get there in time. Reasoning seems good enough at that point in the day (we were short on time). I think we can probably rule out a Hanas-Gamelon scum combination on this basis. Although it should be noted that since this point he has backed off Gamelon considerably, even going as far as to drop a vote on someone putting a case forward on Gamelon (Mockra).

- On Day 2 he started with a vote on Mockra. It didn't get much traction because everyone else seemed pretty focused on Aparal Forge. I found this post interesting because it was in a style (vote in the middle of a big post that seemed a little plumped up) that doesn't seem to mesh with his style of play (which seems to find long posts suspicious), but that's a fairly minor issue.

- He and Mockra are the only players that have actually tried to put any pressure on me. His first prod was to get me to share thoughts about who I don't have a read on, then later he disagreed on a reading of one of Mockra's posts. I like players who I can see asking questions on thread. It shows they're investigating and trying to get their head around the game. To me this feels like fairly reasonable town behaviour, since he seems to be coming to Mockra's defense, a player that he had previously dropped a vote on. (My real question is, why hasn't anyone else been doing it? Pressure and interactions are the key to this game, but few people seem to be trying to generate either!)

So, after all that I feel like Hanas isn't all that high up in my list of suspicions. There's a read of his behaviour that his Day 2 vote for Mockra could have been aggressive distancing, especially when coupled with his slight defense of Mockra later on in the day. That train never had any traction and he was able to step off it to drop the hammer pretty easily. But for now that's not my operating hypothesis.

this was the post.

Its the first real attention hanas has caught, within 2 posts of this Ultama throws out a lengthy post with a case and vote on Mockra, which also includes a Gamelon name drop. Reading Ultama in isolation doesn't really turn anything in that respect, the only time Hanas even shows up in his posts is a nested quote. It would be a stretch to label this a symp and distraction situation but it was Ultamams first real interest in Mockra, and so hard on the heels of the only scrutiny Hanas had recieved it perked my interest.

I currently have no real clue where I will be voting today.

[Ultama]

Alkend, on 04 January 2017 - 12:10 PM, said:

Its the first real attention hanas has caught, within 2 posts of this Ultama throws out a lengthy post with a case and vote on Mockra, which also includes a Gamelon name drop. Reading Ultama in isolation doesn't really turn anything in that respect, the only time Hanas even shows up in his posts is a nested quote. It would be a stretch to label this a symp and distraction situation but it was Ultamams first real interest in Mockra, and so hard on the heels of the only scrutiny Hanas had recieved it perked my interest.

I currently have no real clue where I will be voting today.

Re: underlined:
Uhm, yeah, except it wasn't. I directly referred to Mockra a couple of times earlier in the game:

Ultama, on 27 December 2016 - 09:49 AM, said:

And we're officially started, with the first D1 symp accusation being out

Buuut... what would symp or scum gain from breaking the silence?

Ultama, on 28 December 2016 - 04:19 PM, said:

I am undecided still, but leaving soon for the evening, so will do a quick read of the day and make up my mind. I think Tulas is overreacting, but I'm not sure it warrants a vote. I am tempted by Mockra's idea to lynch of the low-posters.

Also, Mockra, what exactly do you mean by this?

Quote

The third joke is something meta (which is against the rules btw)

The post you're referring to is trying to explain someone's play based on alting attempt. Why is this against the rules?

Ultama, on 28 December 2016 - 04:56 PM, said:

I'd say this is subject to interpretation - metagaming is speculation after all. But I see your point and discussing it further doesn't make much sense anyway.

I reread the thread and don't really have a better idea than Tulas right now. They got really jumpy under a very slight pressure and that's not a good sign. Mockra's attempts at directing the thread are no bueno as well, but they're rather aggressive, not sure if scum would play like that D1. So I will stick with the Tulas hunch.

Leaving for drinks, so not sure if I will be around later, will try to drop by the thread before going to sleep tho.

He did appear on my radar earlier, but I wasn't too concerned. I was finding Gamelon most suspicious, but more reading made me come to the conclusion that it's Mockra we're looking for.

[Alkend]

I would hardly call a thumbs up smiley comment on D1 symp speculation, a post where you LIKE mockras idea of low poster hunting and ask him a question regarding meta etiquette and a final post where you are all about Tulas and make a hand wave about Mockra directing operations as real interest. your milage may very but for me 1 fleeting reference of no beuno and a question does not equate interest en par with your case and vote.

[Path-Shaper]

At work on cell

4 hour extension granted
Day to end in 13 hours

[Ultama]

Quote

I would hardly call a thumbs up smiley comment on D1 symp speculation, a post where you LIKE mockras idea of low poster hunting and ask him a question regarding meta etiquette and a final post where you are all about Tulas and make a hand wave about Mockra directing operations as real interest.

What have the Romans ever done for us?

[Alkend]

Maybe I'm reading entirely too much into the situation, but coupled with this bit of timing I'm just a bit suspcious now

Hanas, on 04 January 2017 - 11:42 AM, said:

Been really busy last two days, probably won't have much more time today (or tommorow) but I'll read up and be here before timeout

[Fanderay]

Alkend, on 04 January 2017 - 12:10 PM, said:

this was the post.

Its the first real attention hanas has caught, within 2 posts of this Ultama throws out a lengthy post with a case and vote on Mockra, which also includes a Gamelon name drop. Reading Ultama in isolation doesn't really turn anything in that respect, the only time Hanas even shows up in his posts is a nested quote. It would be a stretch to label this a symp and distraction situation but it was Ultamams first real interest in Mockra, and so hard on the heels of the only scrutiny Hanas had recieved it perked my interest.

I currently have no real clue where I will be voting today.

My investigation of Hanas ended with the conclusion that I didn't find him all that suspicious though. I wouldn't have expected that to be a trigger for a symp distraction tactic. It was interesting that Hanas was the one pushing a case on Mockra on Day 2 and Ultama has picked up the baton here, but that's the only connection between the two I am aware of.

[Fanderay]

Ultama - question for you. What is your opinion of Aparal Forge now we have a CF? Are you treating them as likely inno, likely symp, neither or both?