[Tattersail_]

My initial opinion on the ADL votes are they've come out of no where. They're not based on our scum cf kitsu but more on the play of ADL. It's interesting that Bliss found a game were he played a 7 post serial killer. That is flying way under the radar.

[Tattersail_]

Gnaw, on 26 April 2016 - 02:09 AM, said:

Roles are out.

If you did not get a message you are RI.

Players by alphabetic order:

ADL
Andorion
Blend
Bliss
Bubba
Coltain93
Dhenrabi
Gusty
HO
Itwas Nom
Khell
Kitsu
Macros
Mess
Sergiej
Tapper
Tatts




There is one non-standard role in the game.

Days are 36 hours long.

Khell said 2 killers who didn't know each other would be hard for scum.

Usually ratio is 3 town to 1 scum.

That'd be 15 players.

Standard 2 killers 1 symp as it's meat and potatoes.

If he adds a town vig as a non standard player that could offset the extra 2 players. Usually a vig blows his load early like we've seen evidence of this game.

So, I'm not ruling out the possibility of paired killers knowing each other.

This is hugely important.

The spanner in the works is a scum death night 2 combined with 2 kills night one.

This suggests that on night 2 Kitsu was vigged or killed by another killer.

If vigged, then night 1 we'd have had 2 killers kill. Which doesn't make sense.

If killed by scum partner then that suggests they don't know each other. Which Khell says is disadvantaged to scum.

My conclusion or where my head is at unless told otherwise is that;

2 killers who don't know each other
Symp who knows both
Town vig

That is why I was looking for signalling cases. The killers, to avoid each other, need their symp to guide them. So other than Mess (as that is who I thought was it) who may have signalled Kitsu?

Sorry for rambling but I wanted to go through my thinking on thread.

Is this the wrong way to look at things?

Khell played his game of looking at everything being a signal but Kitsu should be the common denominator. If he thinks I signaled Coltaine, for example, then I should also have signalled Kitsu or linked Coltaine and Kitsu together.

I'll look at it again from a fresh perspective.

[Tattersail_]

Just a thought when reading first few posts.

1 killer with symp
1 killer with symp

Town vig
Healer/guard

Fucking pisses me off, if we know the set up in terms of scum then we know exactly what we should be looking for. I've been all over the place here and it's because I'm a little lost on the dividing line.

Anyway who knows mechanics, is the set up above balanced? If so, it opens up a whole different ball game. I'd be looking completely away from Kitsu and probably just hop on board the ADL train as I think there's a connection between him and Coltaine.

[Andorion]

Tattersail_, on 30 April 2016 - 09:13 AM, said:

Gnaw, on 26 April 2016 - 02:09 AM, said:

Roles are out.

If you did not get a message you are RI.

Players by alphabetic order:

ADL
Andorion
Blend
Bliss
Bubba
Coltain93
Dhenrabi
Gusty
HO
Itwas Nom
Khell
Kitsu
Macros
Mess
Sergiej
Tapper
Tatts




There is one non-standard role in the game.

Days are 36 hours long.

Khell said 2 killers who didn't know each other would be hard for scum.

Usually ratio is 3 town to 1 scum.

That'd be 15 players.

Standard 2 killers 1 symp as it's meat and potatoes.

If he adds a town vig as a non standard player that could offset the extra 2 players. Usually a vig blows his load early like we've seen evidence of this game.

So, I'm not ruling out the possibility of paired killers knowing each other.

This is hugely important.

The spanner in the works is a scum death night 2 combined with 2 kills night one.

This suggests that on night 2 Kitsu was vigged or killed by another killer.

If vigged, then night 1 we'd have had 2 killers kill. Which doesn't make sense.

If killed by scum partner then that suggests they don't know each other. Which Khell says is disadvantaged to scum.

My conclusion or where my head is at unless told otherwise is that;

2 killers who don't know each other
Symp who knows both
Town vig

That is why I was looking for signalling cases. The killers, to avoid each other, need their symp to guide them. So other than Mess (as that is who I thought was it) who may have signalled Kitsu?

Sorry for rambling but I wanted to go through my thinking on thread.

Is this the wrong way to look at things?

Khell played his game of looking at everything being a signal but Kitsu should be the common denominator. If he thinks I signaled Coltaine, for example, then I should also have signalled Kitsu or linked Coltaine and Kitsu together.

I'll look at it again from a fresh perspective.

Is Town vig the only possible Town role? M&P does have other roles too sometimes....

[Tattersail_]

This post irks me so much. It's blinding me. Kitsu was fucking scum. This is where I'm thinking that at least Mess was Kitsu's symp. Mess didn't know he was going to get killed, Mess usually stays for a long game. Look at that wording.

Messremb, on 26 April 2016 - 09:34 AM, said:

Khellendros, on 26 April 2016 - 07:52 AM, said:

Messremb, on 26 April 2016 - 02:19 AM, said:

Woo game thread.

Vote Khellendros

Because Macros and Venge have a point...

Remind me what that point is. Place joke votes on me at beginning of game for good luck?

Many might consider lynching you to be good luck

Note for JPK,

Siergiej and Dhenrabi, genuine truth - if Khell is alive on Day 3 then he is scum

Another note: in un-alted mafia some old grudges occasionally get settled

Also, Day 1 votes can be extremely random. Example:

Remove Vote

Just Plain Kitsu, on 26 April 2016 - 04:35 AM, said:

You know, if the voting system was actually for lynching - with the last candidate standing getting the position - I'll bet we'd have much larger voter turnout here. Besides that's the only way I can imagine voting Trump.

You'd consider voting Trump for anything? Clearly scummy

Vote JPK

Lynches have run off of far less than that.

So

Remove Vote

Are we going to be serious today or whimsical?

Khellendros, on 26 April 2016 - 07:55 AM, said:

2) You want us to speculate on town roles. That's interesting.

Why do you think it is a Town role? It could be scum, it could be independent.

Andorion, on 26 April 2016 - 08:21 AM, said:

Soo lets see, Day 1:

1. Standard nonsential conversation: Check
2. Joke voting: Check
3. Suspicion of player speculating on game roles: Check
4. Accusation of signalling and symping: Waiting on this one.
5. Lynch Bubba: Inevitable

OMGUS?

Ignore, for now, Khell. Look at the interaction with JPK. What are your thoughts?

[Tattersail_]

Andorion, on 30 April 2016 - 09:23 AM, said:

Tattersail_, on 30 April 2016 - 09:13 AM, said:

Gnaw, on 26 April 2016 - 02:09 AM, said:

Roles are out.

If you did not get a message you are RI.

Players by alphabetic order:

ADL
Andorion
Blend
Bliss
Bubba
Coltain93
Dhenrabi
Gusty
HO
Itwas Nom
Khell
Kitsu
Macros
Mess
Sergiej
Tapper
Tatts




There is one non-standard role in the game.

Days are 36 hours long.

Khell said 2 killers who didn't know each other would be hard for scum.

Usually ratio is 3 town to 1 scum.

That'd be 15 players.

Standard 2 killers 1 symp as it's meat and potatoes.

If he adds a town vig as a non standard player that could offset the extra 2 players. Usually a vig blows his load early like we've seen evidence of this game.

So, I'm not ruling out the possibility of paired killers knowing each other.

This is hugely important.

The spanner in the works is a scum death night 2 combined with 2 kills night one.

This suggests that on night 2 Kitsu was vigged or killed by another killer.

If vigged, then night 1 we'd have had 2 killers kill. Which doesn't make sense.

If killed by scum partner then that suggests they don't know each other. Which Khell says is disadvantaged to scum.

My conclusion or where my head is at unless told otherwise is that;

2 killers who don't know each other
Symp who knows both
Town vig

That is why I was looking for signalling cases. The killers, to avoid each other, need their symp to guide them. So other than Mess (as that is who I thought was it) who may have signalled Kitsu?

Sorry for rambling but I wanted to go through my thinking on thread.

Is this the wrong way to look at things?

Khell played his game of looking at everything being a signal but Kitsu should be the common denominator. If he thinks I signaled Coltaine, for example, then I should also have signalled Kitsu or linked Coltaine and Kitsu together.

I'll look at it again from a fresh perspective.

Is Town vig the only possible Town role? M&P does have other roles too sometimes....

Well 2 things make me think it is, one is that the numbers are high and favourable to town. Town vig off sets that. Two is on thread. I don't want to point out.

[Tattersail_]

Messremb, on 26 April 2016 - 10:16 AM, said:

Andorion, on 26 April 2016 - 10:13 AM, said:

Messremb, on 26 April 2016 - 10:07 AM, said:

Yes, no assumptions on Cult till we see a Cult CF!

Eh who said anything about a Cult? I must have missed something

You got the Serial Killer memo though?

This is totally out of the blue. Andorion does not respond until mess brings in an FM role spec.

[Tattersail_]

Khellendros, on 26 April 2016 - 12:01 PM, said:

I've got a bit of a work emergency today guys, but hopefully will be around in the evening.

By the way Khell, as a Historian what emergency did you have? Totally intrigued

[Tattersail_]

Tapper, on 26 April 2016 - 01:03 PM, said:

@Tatts: no set-up speculation from me. I could see Gnaw make the new additions to the forum scum, in time honoured tradition. In another time honoured tradition, I am going to firmly behave like this is out of the question until we have proof*.




*= proof being defined as a vague gut feeling and/or no clear targets for a lynch.

We have proof.

That'd leave Dhenrabi and Coltaine as possible scum.

[Tattersail_]

Blend, on 26 April 2016 - 03:26 PM, said:

Gust Hubb, on 26 April 2016 - 03:15 PM, said:

I initially was leaning Andorian. We have had good luck in the past going after the first person to bring up mechanics. If Tatts wasn't acting so weird I would lean more that way.

I can attest to that - I've been rightfully lynched in early days for just that. I've also been wrongfully lynched for the same reason... so I've just learned not to talk about game mechanics much. I do it all the time anyway, I just know I shouldn't.

Which is something we should keep in mind towards end of game.

[Tattersail_]

Lady Bliss, on 26 April 2016 - 04:35 PM, said:

Ok, after skimming through I'm left with the following perceptions:

1) my gut says Tatts is playing way too over the top to be a killer. I could see him more as a symp.
2) Role speculation does stink. I feel like it just helps scum with trying to look like they are participating early, and can be a vehicle for scum to spot roled townies.
3) Khell isn't posting enough.
4) Tapper is posting more than I remember. I'll have to do a post count on the last couple of games to confirm.

TBH I'm leaning towards Khell
I
OR Nom

remove vote

I need to take a deeper dive in looking at posts.

Why Khell up to this point?

[Tattersail_]

Siergiej, on 26 April 2016 - 09:48 PM, said:

Quote

Often what happens is that we get close to lynching someone on Day 1, usually for some stupid reason that only makes a little bit of sense, but because we don't end up getting the lynch, even with the kill info (and most killers will often kill someone completely unrelated to the Day 1 controversy for this very reason), more often than not, the kill has nothing to do, either directly or obliquely, with the cases people were pushing Day 1, let alone being a kill that may give us enough information to suss out who the killers are yet. Then we get to Day 2, and if, as is usually the case, nothing new has come up information-wise, we spend the entirety of another day cycle rehashing the exact same cases as during Day 1.<br style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 11.7px; line-height: 19.5px; background-color: rgb(24, 24, 24);"><br style="color: rgb(255, 255, 255); font-size: 11.7px; line-height: 19.5px; background-color: rgb(24, 24, 24);">So, by not lynching on Day 1, we've now wasted 2 days arguing about the same cases.

Thanks Blend, that helps a lot!

Andorion v Tatts looks like the point of contention for Day 1 and admittedly the core of my own reasoning from the previous post, so I went back and looked and how it unfolded (this timeline is limited to the Androion-Tattersail situation):

• Andorion starts speculating about mechanics
• Tatts joins the speculation
• In the next post Macros throws accusation at Andorion because of that speculation
• Khell joins and points fingers at Andorion
• Tattersail votes Andorion
• Nom votes Andorion
• Dhenrabi votes Tatts
• Macros votes Tatts
• HiddenOne comes back to Macros' post that started the whole debate and votes Andorion
• JPK votes Andorion
• Gust votes Tatts
• Dhenrabi removes vote against Tatts
• Tatts removes vote against Andorion and votes Blend
• JPK removes vote against Andorion

What looked fishy to me is how Macros only focused on Andorion speculating mechanics and how Tatts pivoted from talking mechanics himself to lynching Andorion. But then he actually backtracked and voted Tatts, so it makes sense. And for the record, Tatts did offer an excuse for his speculation:

Quote

The difference between me speculating on what the extra role may be, (asking Tapper, who has run a lot of games) and Andorion speculating on what town roles there may be is huge

This sounds like a shaky logic to me, but I don't want to jump to a conclusion based on only this with so little Mafia experience I have.


Initially I was most suspicious of team vote Andorion but after a re-read (more like re-skim to be fair) I think that would expose them too much. Throwing accusations at Tatts is more defensible and an opportunity to stir things up at the same time, with fueling the tension. Dhenrabi retracted his vote for Tatts and Macros actually backtracked to this conclusion after going after Andorion, so that leaves me with Gust. This is a looong shot and I might be reading way too much into things, but here it goes:

Vote GustHubb

Honestly other than Kitsu, Siegiej voted for GH. This is typical GH when killer, kill those who vote/mention you.

A few posts before this GH attacks JPK for saying nothing in his post.

[Tattersail_]

Time up for me at the moment.

[Tapper]

Tattersail_, on 30 April 2016 - 09:49 AM, said:

Tapper, on 26 April 2016 - 01:03 PM, said:

@Tatts: no set-up speculation from me. I could see Gnaw make the new additions to the forum scum, in time honoured tradition. In another time honoured tradition, I am going to firmly behave like this is out of the question until we have proof*.




*= proof being defined as a vague gut feeling and/or no clear targets for a lynch.

We have proof.

That'd leave Dhenrabi and Coltaine as possible scum.

To be exact, we have a result that does not prove the theory above is wrong. There's plenty of other options. Yes, D and C may be scum, but they may not be. Each of them may be partnered with a vet, or Kitsu was the only new player made scum, for example because the set-up was fully randomized. So nothing in their guilty/not guilty status changes.

It's funny that you dig up that post, considering it was somewhat tongue in cheek.

Besides... aren't you thinking either Khell or Gust is scum? And that Mess was a symp?

[Tapper]

Anyway, I will vote Gust after the break. He's been.... weird.

[Tattersail_]

Tapper, on 30 April 2016 - 11:54 AM, said:

Anyway, I will vote Gust after the break. He's been.... weird.

What do you make of the votes on ADL? Yes I'm leaning towards khell/Gust being scum.

[Andorion]

Tapper, on 30 April 2016 - 11:54 AM, said:

Anyway, I will vote Gust after the break. He's been.... weird.

Tattersail_, on 30 April 2016 - 12:05 PM, said:

Tapper, on 30 April 2016 - 11:54 AM, said:

Anyway, I will vote Gust after the break. He's been.... weird.

What do you make of the votes on ADL? Yes I'm leaning towards khell/Gust being scum.

I am assuming this idea is based on scum not knowing each other as Gust has rather emphatically claimed that Kitsu was scum before the NK?

[Lady Bliss]

Tattersail_, on 30 April 2016 - 10:02 AM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 26 April 2016 - 04:35 PM, said:

Ok, after skimming through I'm left with the following perceptions:

1) my gut says Tatts is playing way too over the top to be a killer. I could see him more as a symp.
2) Role speculation does stink. I feel like it just helps scum with trying to look like they are participating early, and can be a vehicle for scum to spot roled townies.
3) Khell isn't posting enough.
4) Tapper is posting more than I remember. I'll have to do a post count on the last couple of games to confirm.

TBH I'm leaning towards Khell
I
OR Nom

remove vote

I need to take a deeper dive in looking at posts.

Why Khell up to this point?

This was day 1 after your role speculation spat with Ando and before we started thinking that Nom's voting was weird. I hadn't decided whether I agreed with you on Ando or others that we should vote you.

[Tattersail_]

I've been his partner before. He has no qualms about hammering his partner (see the newb a game) or casting suspicion that way if it benefits him. In fact that game he killed his symp (bliss/alkend) which supports the argument either way.

[Gust Hubb]

Tapper, on 30 April 2016 - 11:54 AM, said:

Anyway, I will vote Gust after the break. He's been.... weird.

Odd post from you taps. I would expect you to clarify this with more details.

I still have have a lot of suspicion around khell. His sense of self preservation was too great to be RI. He is hiding something, and I think he is scum.

As for me, you can Lynch me at you leisure. I will try to see if I can compile some more backup info on khell I'm the mean time while I watch my boys.