Posted 02 December 2015 - 09:04 PM
Ok. Write up is done. I don't have time for quote blocks; if you want a quote reference I can find it. My analysis is mostly based on seeing the link between Ultama/KF/Den that Fanderay has picked up on, plus having the knowledge of the CFs we got from Days 1 and 2. This is what I saw play out:
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Day 1
Den votes grasp for suggesting paired killers and vote signaling; weak case but many people follow (Merrid agrees)
Ultama says Den's "arguments suck" so he will not "vote with Den". This is super odd wording. Votes AF.
Ultama disagrees with Grasp but doesn't vote there, distances from Den again by disagreeing explicitly; says he won't vote Grasp unless others do
Den pressures Grasp until he reveals, votes Hanas; Den speculates town might have a healer right he was voting Grasp for speculating on mechanics; says to Grasp "you be dead"
Den makes useless comments on several people
KF asks Den about Hanas vote instead of AF, Den very quickly agrees to switch to AF, pressures for a hammer vote at end of day 1
Day 1 ends - AF lynched, Grasp and Hanas NK'd
KF, Ultama, Den all vote AF; Den had major hard on for Grasp and Hanas all day, they both die at night. Some WIFOM there but suddenly Den no longer has to pursue his day 1 bullshit as his case targets are gone.
Day 2
KF thinks scum are in non-voters (not Den or Ultama)
Ultama makes big (but weak) case on Telas based on Day 1 AF speculation but doesn't vote; ties in Den with Telas as scummy, more distancing from Den
KF agrees with Ultama about Den and Telas but needs something more "tangible" to agree about Den, thinks case is too weak
Shadow catches KF's comment above by seeing it as KF calling Ultama scummy
Lock interacts with Merrid; I disagree with Lock's argument for Hanas's NK, I think Merrid was on point; rest of their interaction screams town to me
KF makes big case on Korlat and gives me and Fanderay a pass (two low posters) after saying earlier that he thought scum were in non-voters (me and Fanderay); no explanation for this switch in thought process
Ultama votes Korlat to get a lynch; says "I haven't seen much useful stuff in their posts" after Korlat has been making long observations on the game (right or wrong); inaccurate and therefore scummy
Fanderay votes Shadow for not voting Korlat to get a lynch
Den agrees with KF that Ultama's case is weak
Den is suspicious of Shadow - actually says "I really don't like Shadow" - and makes a case but hammers Korlat instead; wants to look at Telas next, finds nothing after 20 mins
Shadow responds to Den hardcore; Den doesn't have to respond because Shadow posted between lynch and night, then Shadow dies
Day 2 ends - Korlat lynched, Shadow dies
KF, Ultama, Den all voted in the same order again - possibly a symp following masters here, Den hammers after really pushing for Day 1 hammer (Den put AF at L-1)
Day 3
KF votes me for Lion King stuff
Ultama quotes KF and just says he likes the Lion King; then comments on Lock; then distances from Den again saying it's the same Day 1 bullshit
Merrid finds KF "scum are non-voters" post and questions it; KF's response is weak
Den agrees with Khell/Korlat post-lynch, says he can't see a Telas case but will go with it based on Khell being a good player
Merrid votes Den for defending Telas with a case
KF replies to Merrid that they should vote Telas instead of Den
Ultama directly quotes KF above and thinks Den is a symp, not worth voting, votes Telas
Ultama says he dislikes Den more than Telas (more distancing), pushes for Telas lynch
Den has the flu and is out, says he isn't "bullet proof"...
Ultama wanted to see Den's reaction, says Telas could be RI but keeps vote on Telas; says Den could be best choice due to D-Day but doesn't vote Den (scummy)
KF agrees with Ultama immediately; Ultama says Den is suspicious; KF votes Telas based on Merrid's case
Ultama says Den is best choice over Telas, suggests a Den lynch, DOESN'T VOTE DEN, leaves Telas at L-2
KF tags me and Telas as scummy
Den votes Telas after saying "[I] feel like we are being led by the nose today by people like KF"; KF is leading the lynch train on Telas; why is Den voting Telas if KF is leading people around? fucking scummy
Den wants to focus on Merrid for leading the thread after saying KF was doing this, doesn't look at KF, actually agrees with KF for correcting Merrid
Merrid votes Den based on behavior all game
Fanderay links KF, Ultama, and Den based on lynch trains with a great case, votes Den
Ultama distances from Den again on Telas vote
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ANALYSIS
Ultama has been distancing from Den the entire game, hardcore. Sometimes for really bad reasons. KF has been leading lynches and throwing pressure around, causing confusion. Den has followed Ultama/KF on every vote so far, including today, and slips up a few times that look really scummy (like his reasons for voting Telas, mechanics speculation against Grasp then USES mechanics speculation on his own).
I see Den as a killer; either KF or Ultama could be a symp based on their play. For Ultama to be the symp, he's actually been super obvious by agreeing with KF a lot and disagreeing with Den a lot. For KF to be the symp, Den/Ultama must have picked up on a signal early on, they don't know he's the symp but they like the way he leads the thread, or it's random and there is no connection.
This puts my vote on Den for a lot of reasons.
Vote Denesmet
Fanderay 
Ultama, on 02 December 2015 - 07:21 PM, said:
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