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Mafia 126.5 - Wolf in Sheep's Clothing Game Thread

#281 User is offline   Ryllandaras 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 08:45 AM

I've been looking into the trains. I've not fleshed it out properly yet though. Focusing on day one has been getting us no where. I'm guilty of that as the next person so I'm looking to see if I can spot a pattern with the votes or not.

#282 User is offline   Aparal Forge 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 01:50 PM

Not much new to go on, but I think we should take another shot at Omtose

#283 User is offline   Path-Shaper 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 02:03 PM

It is Day 4. 10 hours 52 minutes remaining.

There are 8 players left alive: Aparal Forge, Demelain, Karosis, Liosan, Mockra, Monok Ochem, Omtose, Ryllandaras

5 votes for lynch, 4 votes for night.





Players not voted: Aparal Forge, Demelain, Karosis, Liosan, Mockra, Monok Ochem, Omtose, Ryllandaras
Only someone with this much power could make this many frittatas without breaking any eggs.
0

#284 User is offline   Monok Ochem 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 02:03 PM

I'm just doing a readthrough, will have some thoughts in a while (may be quite a while, though I'm conscious we have like...12 hours or so?)


Edit: Awesome crosspost, PS.

This post has been edited by Monok Ochem: 14 October 2015 - 02:04 PM


#285 User is offline   Ryllandaras 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 02:42 PM

So day one Omtose is voting elsewhere. Liosan, Mockra and Karosis are all not voting.

View PostPath-Shaper, on 07 October 2015 - 12:10 AM, said:

As of here:

View PostMonok Ochem, on 06 October 2015 - 11:31 PM, said:

Vote Emurlahn


It is Day 1. There are 4 hours 18 minutes remaining.

There are 12 players left alive: Anomandaris, Aparal Forge, Demelain, Emurlahn, Fanderay, Kadagar Fant, Karosis, Liosan, Mockra, Monok Ochem, Omtose, Ryllandaras

7 votes to lynch. 6 votes to go to Night.

1 vote Ryllandaras: Omtose
7 votes Emurlahn: Ryllandaras, Aparal Forge, Fanderay, Kadagar Fant, Demelain, Anomandaris, Monok Ochem



Players not voted: Emurlahn, Karosis, Liosan, Mockra

You hoist Emurlahn into a tree by the neck. He kicks and screams about his innocence and...

Emurlahn has been lynched. He was Gnaw and a Roleless Innocent.


Day 2 we only have 4 people vote. Day timed out.

View PostPath-Shaper, on 08 October 2015 - 12:15 PM, said:

Around about 30 minutes ago....

It is now Day 2. 0 hours remaining.

There are 10 players left alive: Anomandaris, Aparal Forge, Demelain, Kadagar Fant, Karosis, Liosan, Mockra, Monok Ochem, Omtose, Ryllandaras

6 votes to lynch. 5 votes to go to Night.

3 votes Kadagar Fant: Monok Ochem, Liosan, Ryllandarars
1 vote Omtose: Kadagar Fant



Players not voted: Anomandaris, Aparal Forge, Demelain, Kadagar Fant, Karosis, Liosan, Mockra, Omtose, Ryllandaras

The day ends without a lynch.


Day 3, everyone votes.

View PostPath-Shaper, on 10 October 2015 - 12:07 AM, said:

As of here:

View PostKarosis, on 10 October 2015 - 12:00 AM, said:

Vote Kadagar Fant


There are 9 players left alive: Aparal Forge, Demelain, Kadagar Fant, Karosis, Liosan, Mockra, Monok Ochem, Omtose, Ryllandaras

5 votes to lynch. 5 votes to go to Night.


5 votes Kadagar Fant: Mockra, Monok Ochem, Omtose, Liosan, Karosis
4 vote Omtose: Kadagar Fant, Demelain, Aparal Forge, Ryllandaras


The mob gathers for justice and drag Kadagar Fant from her house hoisting her up on a rope to the nearest tree. Her last breath is taking in a scream of rage as her feet kick helplessly in the air.

She was Lady Bliss and a Roleless Innocent.


I made a note here that the 4 non voters from day one are all on the Kadagar train. Significant in anyway? I'm not sure.

However, going over the votes as they happened is more interesting.

#286 User is offline   Ryllandaras 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 02:51 PM

Day 1

Emur - Liosan
Kadagar - Omtose
Omtose - Ryllandaras
Ryllandarars - Emur
Emur - Monok
Aparal - Emur
Fanderay - Emur
Kadagar - Emur
Demelain - Ryllandaras
Monok - Kadagar
Demelain - Emur
Anomandaris - Emur
Monok - Emur
Lynch happens
Liosan - Emur

Day 2

Monok - Kadagar
Kadagar - Omtose
Liosan - Kadagar
Ryllandaras - Liosan
Ryllandaras - Kadagar

Day 3

Mockra - Kadagar
Kadagar - Omtose
Monok - Kadagar
Ryllandaras - Liosan
Aparal - Liosan
Omtose - Kadagar
Liosan - Kadagar
Demelain - Omtose
Karosis - Omtose
Aparal - Omtose
Liosan - Kadagar
Ryllandaras - Omtose
Karosis - Kadagar

#287 User is offline   Ryllandaras 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 03:00 PM

A few thoughts spring to mind as I went through them.

Kadagar voted Omtose 3 days straight.

On day 3 when Kadagar and Liosan were 2 votes each, Omtose and Liosan both vote Kadagar pushing him ahead.

Demelain Karosis and OmtoseAparal all express their dislike of Omtose' play by voting him.

Liosan is the one to convince Karosis of removing his vote because Omtose was at L1 but then he himself puts Kadagar at L1.

I'm going to give this a little more thought.

Edit strike through Omtose change to aparal

This post has been edited by Ryllandaras: 14 October 2015 - 03:23 PM


#288 User is offline   Karosis 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 03:02 PM

I will most likely not vote on Omtose. We will waste our time on him and he will possible get mod killed. He either doesn't care or doesn't have the time, and I would be willing to take a chance saying that his absence and lack of interest probably means that he is not scum.

Plus saying "I will just vote Omtose again" doesn't really help anyone. It is a very safe move and is a cop out in my opinion.

#289 User is offline   Karosis 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 03:04 PM

Ryll, a lot of text but what exactly are you trying to say? Can you sum it up with a point you are hitting?

#290 User is offline   Ryllandaras 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 03:30 PM

View PostKarosis, on 14 October 2015 - 03:04 PM, said:

Ryll, a lot of text but what exactly are you trying to say? Can you sum it up with a point you are hitting?


I guess looking through the votes and lynches that Liosan is central to my worries.

He could be partnered with you, you both didn't vote Emur on day one. On day 3 you both had that back and forth regarding Omtose. You could have staged the whole thing for all we know. It makes Omtose looks guilty by disassociation. Even your latest posts states why you're unwilling to vote for him.

He could be partnered with Omtose and they're voting together, defending each other by arguing for an innocents lynch. I say this because Omtose's vote on Kadagar at the time when Liosan and Kadagar both had 2 votes each. Omtose pushes the seesaw in the other direction.

Finally his voting after Monok links him that way. Maybe I'm just biased as I've voted for him each day.

As no one is offering any alternative at the moment, Liosan is pinging my scumdar above all.

#291 User is offline   Ryllandaras 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 03:41 PM

Day one he only enters the thread after the healer reveal by Emur.

Day 2 he enters when a couple of people mention him. Look at that reaction.

That's defensive and over the top. He also plays down Emur being the symp.


View PostLiosan, on 08 October 2015 - 07:09 AM, said:

View PostKarosis, on 08 October 2015 - 01:13 AM, said:

Trying to determine if Emurlahns posts had a point behind and if they connect to anyone. His posts had to have a goal, especially since he continued.

Em wants to to vote no/low posts going alphebetically.

He votes Liosan. Liosan shows up and posts that he is present. Right after, Em takes vote off.

He voted Monok even though he must see that is not the wisest thing to do at that point.

Monok Ochem shows up and places a few posts, with saying hes not particulary fond of voting Em.

Em comes back, says he will on low posters, removes vote and does not place another one.

Traction on Em vote. Em goes bersek, "reveals"

Liosan goes off on Em

Monok votes Em

Liosan votes Em (extra vote, Im pretty sure)

If there is a relationship between Em votes and the respective players, the only thing that pops up is how Liosan wrote all this shit late in the day that everyone already voiced, and eventually voted for Em as an extra vote. Could it be possible that Em purposely voted Liosan to signal and then when he got flack for it he made it seem like he was doing the proper and calculated thing and continued to vote on Monek? Then Liosan stepped in, seeing how Em was about to get lynched and distancing himself by posting all that.

Was it also necessary to post all that stuff about Fanderay right before it was clear that Em was going to be lynched? Did Liosan include all that stuff about Fanderay just so he can look cleaner when Fanderay was killed that night?

Hmm.


his posts did NOT have to have some goal, are you seriously pretending to know why emur did the things he did? just...stfu.

i realize i can't exactly escape the OMGUS aspect of my response here (or really, to almost anything that's been said recently...) but that's just how it is so i'm going to ignore it.

i don't like this post. why are there so many summaries? someone else made one earlier too. why the fuck would you waste time summarizing a few dozen posts when anyone could go reread them in a few minutes? i was always a fan of the "scum make lists" generalization, for various reasons.

so big summary, great, thank you for your fucking contribution. in the end, after all of that, your SOLE CONCLUSION is that emurlan MUST have been a symp - my symp, actually - since he CF'd RI after apparently fake revealing as healer, if we are to believe the flavor text. personally i am not counting that as gospel. if it is then it means emur is either bad RI (because he sealed his lynch and wasted day 2 on this still) or really a symp who fake revealed to presumable sow confusion on thread and make people waste time looking at who he talked to, etc..... actually, if he WAS a symp, this would be a bad play, assuming he had tried to signal the killers in any way sincee he must have known that his posts would be scrutinized after a fake healer reveal. and he only did so before the hammer, making the reveal seem like emur was waiting to see if he was really going to get lynched before claiming healer.

then you go into WIFOM about fanderay. in fact there is so much day 2 WIFOM its amazing. either that or i've just reread the same few pages too many times. i won't even bother addressing it.

so whether emur was a symp or not and whether or not his reveal - true or fake- makes him more or less scummy isn't the issue i want to address. i want to know why karosis is trying to paint emur so hard as a symp when it was the day 1 lynch - the lowest possible odds for hitting the symp, assuming there is just one - when i am not seeing the connection he is making to emur's supposed master, which apparently happens to be me according to karosis. well, fuck.

i think this post is an attempt to deflect and capitalize on the craziness at the end of day 1 by rehashing emur's posts and votes, which he was already at L-1 for by the time he revealed healer. weak weak weak. but now i need to reread up on karosis before I can say more.



Was the reaction what halted the momentum day 2? A few games ago something similar to this happened. No lynch occured. Scum ended up winning.

Too many things point me in his direction.

vote Liosan

#292 User is offline   Karosis 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 04:20 PM

Vote Aparal Forge

Just because if you look back all he does is votes on players that others have already discussed or pointed out. He adds very little/rehashes to make himself look involved in the ideas.

And now he proposes we should go with Omtose yet again.

It stinks to me of wanting to be present, having posts and playing it safe.

#293 User is offline   Monok Ochem 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 04:33 PM

This is going to be quote-heavy I'm afraid. Trying to wrap some thoughts together. Basically I've been going back over the thread to see who's been overtly gunning for whom (I haven't included myself in this). In this way I hope to get more of a sense of which partnerships are unlikely based on their interactions, which may help to narrow down my list of potential suspects.


Day 1, Aparal is straight out with a pointy fingers comment at Omtose:

View PostAparal Forge, on 06 October 2015 - 04:58 AM, said:

OMtose is very enthusiastic.... but I am more interested by Emurlahn and that early vote on Liosan. Day 1 isn't even half over



Now Ryll has more recently been pushing fairly heavily an Omtose suspicion, but it's interesting to note that, actually, it was Omtose who suspected Ryll first, rather than the other way round:

View PostOmtose, on 06 October 2015 - 08:22 AM, said:

View PostRyllandaras, on 06 October 2015 - 07:40 AM, said:

View PostEmurlahn, on 05 October 2015 - 07:55 PM, said:

No poster hunt:


Vote Liosan


That is a new one. "No poster hunt"

It made me chuckle when reading through.

Voting someone early into day one when they have not posted is harsh.

I do not know what to think of this at the moment.

It could be a signal.

It could be a fake signal.

It could be a move to get the game going, either with him posting more or everyone talking about it. The problem I am having is, why him over the other non posters?

Edit: no to know



vote rhyllandaras

This post is waffling pointless nonsense the kind of post that show participation but adds zero, the kind if floating past sort of contributing crap I would throw out if I was a killer



Demelain then also puts pressure on Ryll, but later 'refines' their position a bit after.

View PostRyllandaras, on 06 October 2015 - 11:29 AM, said:

View PostOmtose, on 06 October 2015 - 10:01 AM, said:

Pot calling the kettle black there, I don't believe in symp hunting, or trying to paint someone as a symp, it plays into the killers hands, if an inno dies 'he was a symp anyway'
Blegh


Why are you defending Emurlahn this much? I'm not even voting him, nothing else has jumped out that much, I just find his vote the oddest thing so far.



View PostDemelain, on 06 October 2015 - 03:48 PM, said:

So, basically, a little of 12 hours remaining, if I did the math right.

First of all, I also think that symp isn't an easy role to play, especially for new players, so I agree with Anomandaris that we shouldn't give the symp too much credit.

I agree with Fanderay that talk of signalling usually doesn't lead to much or much good. That doesn't change the fact that voting for someone who hasn't posted yet just four hours into game is odd, especially when you take into account mod kills. It almost looks like a desperate attempt at emulating typical early town behaviour of going after or speculation about [l]low[/i] posters. However, this early in the game, accompanied with a vote and directed to a no, rather than a low poster? I don't know what it was.

However, Ryll certainly has an opinion about it:

View PostRyllandaras, on 06 October 2015 - 08:45 AM, said:


I think that Emur is a symp, and this was misdirection. Definitely something to look out for.


However, if they are so convinced that it was a misdirection, they fail to mention who or what Emur was misdirecting from. As I think it's better to go after a killer than a symp, I would expect Ryll's investigation to end up there, not sticking with the hypothesized symp.

So, misdirection, from what or who?

And if you don't have a clue, Ryll, why are you're stating it like it's a fact? Odd.



View PostDemelain, on 06 October 2015 - 04:27 PM, said:

View PostFanderay, on 06 October 2015 - 04:16 PM, said:

View PostRyllandaras, on 06 October 2015 - 11:29 AM, said:

View PostOmtose, on 06 October 2015 - 10:01 AM, said:

Pot calling the kettle black there, I don't believe in symp hunting, or trying to paint someone as a symp, it plays into the killers hands, if an inno dies 'he was a symp anyway'
Blegh


Why are you defending Emurlahn this much? I'm not even voting him, nothing else has jumped out that much, I just find his vote the oddest thing so far.


just because hes attacking you does not mean hes not any less suspicious of emurlahn, however the skittish nature of your posts worries me. You jot down a few quick thoughts, and now you're immediately backpedaling


I see the skittish nature, quickly jotting down thoughts, almost without too much consideration and attracting a lot of attention.

Backpedaling I don't see, Ryll did put a vote down and, during the process, insinuated about Omtose as well.

The thoughtless nature of their posts and their aggressive presence doesn't really scream "scum" to me, though, but I would like to hear Ryllandaras' response to my questions.



Aparal then also says they suspect Ryll (so that's now Omtose and Aparal, with Dem a bit more on the fence)

View PostAparal Forge, on 06 October 2015 - 05:22 PM, said:

Emurlahn seems to be determined to do PS' work for him. He seems to have forgotten about the mod kill.

Seriously though I am torn between voting for Ryll or Emurlahn.

I won't be around for end of day.



Vote Emurlahn



Demelain does in fact then vote Ryll, though this vote is then removed not much later.

View PostDemelain, on 06 October 2015 - 07:43 PM, said:

I would still like some answers from Ryll regarding their misdirection accusation of Emurlahn.

From what or who was Emurlahn misdirection, according to you, Ryll?

Let's hear it, put some sense behind the skittish talk.

Until then,

Vote Ryllandaras



Ryll starts to prod Liosan a bit. This will eventually go over into full-blown suspicion and voting.

View PostRyllandaras, on 06 October 2015 - 08:58 PM, said:

View PostLiosan, on 06 October 2015 - 04:11 PM, said:

sorry I'm checking in. sick yesterday. but only a few pages of posts? guess catching up won't take me too long.



And then...


#294 User is offline   Monok Ochem 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 04:36 PM

Aparal then points fingers early doors at Liosan on day 2. Aparal sure is a bandwagon jumper...

View PostAparal Forge, on 07 October 2015 - 06:11 AM, said:

View PostLiosan, on 06 October 2015 - 11:30 PM, said:

(all emphasis mine - underlineing)

View PostEmurlahn, on 05 October 2015 - 07:55 PM, said:

No poster hunt:Vote Liosan
just again for posterity, you are a moron. this is the post that derailed the thread from fairly generic day 1 banter to an allout shitshow about symps, signals, bullshit, etc. if you were trying to waste the day, good job.again, the voting:

View PostEmurlahn, on 06 October 2015 - 06:35 PM, said:

View PostDemelain, on 06 October 2015 - 04:32 PM, said:

View PostEmurlahn, on 06 October 2015 - 04:24 PM, said:

Remove VoteVote Monok Ochem
Now you're just messing with us? Right? Did you get the part that players who don't participate get a mod kill?What's up with that?
I still haven't seen anyone suspicious enough to make a case on. So I'm voting no posters until they make a presence. Then, if the status quo doesn't change, I'm going to start on the single posters.Betting on participation modkills is a suckers bet. Nobody has been all that strict on them in a long time and Blend is one who tends to cut slack anyways.
although i am about to get a little meta this is way too meta for me as an argument for WHO TO VOTE FOR 4 HOURS INTO THE DAY. jesus, betting on modkills not happening because you think you know the mod is fucking stupid.====other things I didn't like:

View PostFanderay, on 05 October 2015 - 04:02 PM, said:

And omtose gets the snipe lucky man... Wait hes a realm, lucky magic?wait omtose is ice magic, and mafia people when they kill someone say they ice people.OMTOSE IS MAFIA<snip>

View PostFanderay, on 05 October 2015 - 07:14 PM, said:

<snip>you mean ochem, not okam as is ockhams razors as in razor blades, as in stuff you use to do drugs with, as in stuff the mafia sells.

View PostFanderay, on 06 October 2015 - 12:45 PM, said:

Im curious as to what emurlahn has to say. Not quite sure what the rationale is for going for no poster espcially so early into the game. I also don't think any of our mafia rookies are foolish enough to make a move that would paint a giant bullseye on them so early by mistake.Day 1 lynches don't usually occur and even if they do they tend not to have the greatest accuracy. Could be emurlahns the symp, hes betting on us not lynching him, and as the days go on were always going to be stuck go back to emurlahn and itll split votes creating the kind of scenario scum could manipulate.

View PostFanderay, on 06 October 2015 - 12:49 PM, said:

View PostAparal Forge, on 06 October 2015 - 08:32 AM, said:

Mentioning signalling maybe a simple red herring. Signalling related discussion usually go nowhere. If there are plural scum as seems very likely they probably are in internal communication. No symp worth his salt is going to waste his role by getting caught out signalling early on day 1.
i've been in quite a few games where talk of signalling just gets people into weird tangents and gets RIs killed
ok so all this bsns with fanderay just sort of stuck out to me. starts off more joking, acting the newb, repeatedly using the term "mafia" instead of "scum". this initially made me suspect him of trying to fake being a new player because then he goes on hours later about the number of games he's been in, start's using "scum" instead. I guess it could have been just a stupid joke but it caught my eye. I wonder if the change in playstyle was triggered by the shift in focus to emur voting people. nothing to make a case on but sits weird with me. unfortunately we have more important matters to deal with...sighhh



View PostLiosan, on 06 October 2015 - 11:46 PM, said:

View PostAnomandaris, on 06 October 2015 - 11:33 PM, said:

Way too much work at end of the day, Liosan.You laying out an early vote for Fanderay on Day 2? Scummy.
whatever, fuck you, man. it's not the end of the fucking day, we had like 5 hours left or something. IT JUST SO HAPPENED that the day ended early because of emur's reveal.also, WHATEVER AGAIN, fanderay's use of mafia/scum terms IS weird. anyway i disagree with stuff you said anyway. should i go back and respond to it or would that be too scummy for you? :rolleyes:i'm out for awhile. fuckin....day 1 healer reveal. this has to be a record.


Liosan is weird. His case on Fanderay is so flimsy. What easily reads like Day 1 banter turning into a more serious tone with the Emurlahn shitshow seems scummy to him.

Trying to distance himself from his NK target?


#295 User is offline   Monok Ochem 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 04:36 PM

Then Aparal also suggests Fanderay may have been killed because of their suspicions of Ryll.

View PostAparal Forge, on 07 October 2015 - 06:34 AM, said:

View PostFanderay, on 06 October 2015 - 08:18 PM, said:

View PostEmurlahn, on 06 October 2015 - 06:43 PM, said:

View PostFanderay, on 06 October 2015 - 06:40 PM, said:

View PostEmurlahn, on 06 October 2015 - 06:35 PM, said:

I still haven't seen anyone suspicious enough to make a case on. So I'm voting no posters until they make a presence. Then, if the status quo doesn't change, I'm going to start on the single posters.Betting on participation modkills is a suckers bet. Nobody has been all that strict on them in a long time and Blend is one who tends to cut slack anyways.
but your very first vote was 4 hours into the game.
So?At what point do we stop making fun of each other's names, doing dragonseks and move on to other things?
When the time is right, mafia banter doesn't go on endlessly but to just go for a vote 4 hours into the game. You're kinda jumping the gun and painting a bullseye on your back. Furthermore, assuming you are an RI, you've misled 3 of us into voting for you. (assuming the other 2 are RIs). But now we're getting into cyclical reasoning which doesn't exactly get you somwhere





So I went back and took a look at Fanderay. He comes off as a serious player who was also bothered by Ryll.

NK to weaken a day 2 case against Ryll?



Mockra no likey Aparal.

View PostMockra, on 07 October 2015 - 07:33 AM, said:

View PostAparal Forge, on 07 October 2015 - 06:34 AM, said:

View PostFanderay, on 06 October 2015 - 08:18 PM, said:

View PostEmurlahn, on 06 October 2015 - 06:43 PM, said:

View PostFanderay, on 06 October 2015 - 06:40 PM, said:

View PostEmurlahn, on 06 October 2015 - 06:35 PM, said:

I still haven't seen anyone suspicious enough to make a case on. So I'm voting no posters until they make a presence. Then, if the status quo doesn't change, I'm going to start on the single posters.Betting on participation modkills is a suckers bet. Nobody has been all that strict on them in a long time and Blend is one who tends to cut slack anyways.
but your very first vote was 4 hours into the game.
So?At what point do we stop making fun of each other's names, doing dragonseks and move on to other things?
When the time is right, mafia banter doesn't go on endlessly but to just go for a vote 4 hours into the game. You're kinda jumping the gun and painting a bullseye on your back. Furthermore, assuming you are an RI, you've misled 3 of us into voting for you. (assuming the other 2 are RIs). But now we're getting into cyclical reasoning which doesn't exactly get you somwhere





So I went back and took a look at Fanderay. He comes off as a serious player who was also bothered by Ryll.

NK to weaken a day 2 case against Ryll?

So, you quote a bazillion posts, add a verdict that a lazy player could adopt as his own stance on someone (Fanderay is a serious player who was bothered by someone...) and then speculate over the NK?
If you are going to rehash a bunch of quotes per player, at the fucking least pick the interesting bits and place those in their context of the day and how it developed.

Lemme see.
Emurlahn started out quick and kept up voting people in posts containing only removes & votes.
We is an agreement on the layout of the game (2x killer, 1x symp, healer) based on the OP.
Ryllandaras makes observations that are not really observations, and everyone who was around at that time gives their opinion on Ryllandaras, which is generally not favourable, as witnessed by the fact he actually got voted.
Anomandaris has question marks at Aparal Forge (posting, but not contributing) Monok agrees but dislikes Fadagar even more. Neither results in much, although MO does vote FK.
Emur reveals as healer, everyone around has a dump on him for doing so and decides to lynch him.
Liosan points out early day weirdness in Fanderay's posts and Anomandaris really doesn't like the timing of the case.



Demelain then follows that up with their own look at Aparal.

View PostDemelain, on 07 October 2015 - 08:33 PM, said:

Okay, I'm here now. I'm actually on my way home (train), so I'll post more when I actually get there.

Not a whole lot of posts today, yet, so I'm just going to add an observation

First of all, this post catches my eye, as something is off:

View PostAparal Forge, on 07 October 2015 - 06:34 AM, said:

So I went back and took a look at Fanderay. He comes off as a serious player who was also bothered by Ryll.

NK to weaken a day 2 case against Ryll?

My first impression was something like Mockra's, that it's a really lazy post, but that's not it. The thing that strikes me is that AF mentions that they "went back and took a look at Fanderay". Inferring from the rest of their post, they looked specifically for those players under the suspicion of Fanderay. So, what I find odd is that during that read, they "failed" to catch this significant post, as it shows the development of Fanderay's suspicion during D1:

View PostFanderay, on 06 October 2015 - 10:03 PM, said:

im open to alternatives KF is sketchy, ryl is jumpy but that could just as easily a simply misstep, we all do it time to time. At this point in the game however i don't see the value in keeping emurh around.He could be a symp betting on us not thinking hes a symp (wifom i know), regardless everytime we discuss future lynch candidates hes going to be brought up

I think this post is significant because AF tries to make the case that Fanderay is killed because of his attention to Ryll. Well, it's kinda odd to not mention that during the day, Fanderay also noted that he thought KF was was sketchy. (Fanderay was actually writing down a lot of thoughts*, they even let Ryll a bit off the hook here with the "mistep" part.) So, if you are truly interested in noting the players Fanderay showed suspicion for, KF should have been on the list.

Why did you fail to mention that? As you've stated that you actually went back to have a look at Fanderay, that kinda speaks against the "laziness hypothesis". Moreover, despite Fanderay being the second-most active player, there weren't that many posts to look at. So what other reasons can you have to not mention this? We already spend a day basically focussing on one player.




Karosis puts suspicion on Liosan. Liosan subsequently has a go at Karosis, and suggests that this is an attempt by Karosis to 'capitalize on the craziness at the end of day 1.'

View PostKarosis, on 08 October 2015 - 01:13 AM, said:

Trying to determine if Emurlahns posts had a point behind and if they connect to anyone. His posts had to have a goal, especially since he continued.

Em wants to to vote no/low posts going alphebetically.

He votes Liosan. Liosan shows up and posts that he is present. Right after, Em takes vote off.

He voted Monok even though he must see that is not the wisest thing to do at that point.

Monok Ochem shows up and places a few posts, with saying hes not particulary fond of voting Em.

Em comes back, says he will on low posters, removes vote and does not place another one.

Traction on Em vote. Em goes bersek, "reveals"

Liosan goes off on Em

Monok votes Em

Liosan votes Em (extra vote, Im pretty sure)

If there is a relationship between Em votes and the respective players, the only thing that pops up is how Liosan wrote all this shit late in the day that everyone already voiced, and eventually voted for Em as an extra vote. Could it be possible that Em purposely voted Liosan to signal and then when he got flack for it he made it seem like he was doing the proper and calculated thing and continued to vote on Monek? Then Liosan stepped in, seeing how Em was about to get lynched and distancing himself by posting all that.

Was it also necessary to post all that stuff about Fanderay right before it was clear that Em was going to be lynched? Did Liosan include all that stuff about Fanderay just so he can look cleaner when Fanderay was killed that night?

Hmm.


#296 User is offline   Monok Ochem 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 04:36 PM

Liosan votes for KF but says some suspicion remains for Karosis.

View PostLiosan, on 08 October 2015 - 08:25 AM, said:

ok i did a full reread on karosis and that post of his that i quoted is his only post of any value, everything else is banter or one-liners. I am disapoint. so... there isn't really much to go off of except that he showed up right after the lynch and posted twice. that is kind of odd timing but as with his lack of content it is circumstantial at this point. if the pattern continues i will be more suspicious.

for now, since mockra left me and i'm so alone

vote kadagar fant

i'll probably be around another hour or so, tops.



Ryll votes for Liosan.

View PostRyllandaras, on 08 October 2015 - 09:19 AM, said:

Just getting caught up. My interpretation is that Emur was the symp. So it's going on WIFOM territory looking at his later actions as they would be more methodical. His earliest action was to vote for Liosan. Immediately I thought that this could be a red herring, trying to get us to focus on Lio through maybe a signalling case. I said as much day one. However, what if it was a signal? I point out that Emur was a symp, Omtose reacts quite strongly to this. Why? Well what of the possibility that Omtose and Liosan are partnered? That does explain a lot.

I just cannot see it being that easy. Other people have made some good observations but I think the best course of action today would be to lynch Liosan.

At first he stays clear of the thread, then ups his activity towards the end of day. Then today he seems to be asking for other people's thoughts.

Omtose was one of the higher posters yesterday but has said little today. I think we're raking up the wrong tree with kadagar.

vote liosan



But also says that Aparal is bothering them.

View PostRyllandaras, on 08 October 2015 - 09:28 AM, said:

Another player that bothers me is Aparal Forge. 2 posts about reasons for the night kill like he wants us to engage in WIFOM all day.



Ryll latching onto Liosan again.

View PostRyllandaras, on 08 October 2015 - 02:18 PM, said:

I'm still going to

vote liosan

For the reasons I said before. Gnaw can be blatant about things like this and I think his later play was back tracking. It's made you all look elsewhere rather than the elephant in the room.



But Demelain steps in to attack that vote.

View PostDemelain, on 08 October 2015 - 03:03 PM, said:

View PostRyllandaras, on 08 October 2015 - 02:18 PM, said:

I'm still going to

vote liosan

For the reasons I said before. Gnaw can be blatant about things like this and I think his later play was back tracking. It's made you all look elsewhere rather than the elephant in the room.


What? The only reason being the early game vote? That's weak and you know it. Yesterday, you were the one claiming that early vote was actually a false signal, put down by "symp Emur" to misdirect us. Now you claim you think it was an actual signal and to pursue it. It's like Schrödinger's WIFOM, it's both a true and a false signal at the same time.

If you really want to make a case on Liosan, then actually do so and use Liosan's behaviour. Not only is your current case so weak it could easily be misdirection, it does not even call out Liosan on anything they did or wrote, so it's not going get much information on thread from Liosan as well.



Aparal has never seen a suspicion they didn't want to be a part of. Liosan subsequently rants at the votes on them, and indicates they want to hear more from Omtose and Karosis.

View PostAparal Forge, on 08 October 2015 - 06:05 PM, said:

I just did a full read through and the only two candidates are:

Liosan: Mainly Day 1 play, his late attack on Fanderay which I pointed out earlier could be distancing from NK

and KF, reasons being Mockras case.

I am going to go with Liosan

Vote Liosan




Karosis wants to look at Ryll.

View PostKarosis, on 08 October 2015 - 08:06 PM, said:

Liosan, I'm unsure if you are really that into it or feigning frustration.

I can vote for KF for the sole reason that if we mess that lynch again we will waste more time talking and trying again later.

Also, I would like to look at Ryll. There is something at the back of my mind there with him. I will look into it once I get home.

We still have time so I agree we don't need to rush KF votes.



Demelain too has a problem with Ryll...but a bigger problem with Omtose, who they vote for.

View PostDemelain, on 09 October 2015 - 07:24 AM, said:

Omtose is really bugging me, not only did they disappear from the thread after an aggressive start on D1, when they do post, and they only do that once per day, they just say: KF.

D2: Omtose drops in, says they're willing to vote KF, doesn't actually do so , offers no content on KF, or anything else, and the case just hangs there and stagnates.

D3: No content, just a vote for KF. Says they'll be back in a couple of hours, nothing happens, and the case just hands there again.

I don't think he ever contributed anything on KF, besides a showing willingness to vore or an actual vote. They just went along the tide, as KF was mentioned by others. Never on D1 did they even interact or mention KF.



Karosis votes Omtose too.

View PostKarosis, on 09 October 2015 - 01:44 PM, said:

You guys think Omtose is trying to skirt by?

Lets put more pressure on him then.

Vote Omtose



Aparal never saw a suspicion they didn't want to be a pa...wait, didn't I write this already????

View PostAparal Forge, on 09 October 2015 - 03:43 PM, said:

View PostDemelain, on 09 October 2015 - 07:24 AM, said:

Omtose is really bugging me, not only did they disappear from the thread after an aggressive start on D1, when they do post, and they only do that once per day, they just say: KF. D2: Omtose drops in, says they're willing to vote KF, doesn't actually do so , offers no content on KF, or anything else, and the case just hangs there and stagnates. D3: No content, just a vote for KF. Says they'll be back in a couple of hours, nothing happens, and the case just hands there again. I don't think he ever contributed anything on KF, besides a showing willingness to vore or an actual vote. They just went along the tide, as KF was mentioned by others. Never on D1 did they even interact or mention KF.



View PostKarosis, on 09 October 2015 - 01:44 PM, said:

You guys think Omtose is trying to skirt by?Lets put more pressure on him then.Vote Omtose


Apologies. Haven't been here as much as I should have. I agree that Omtose's play became strange after Day 1.

Lets see if he defends himself

Remove Vote

Vote Omtose



Liosan counters the mounting Omtose train with a vote on KF.

View PostLiosan, on 09 October 2015 - 03:47 PM, said:

View PostKarosis, on 09 October 2015 - 01:44 PM, said:

You guys think Omtose is trying to skirt by?

Lets put more pressure on him then.

Vote Omtose


i don't like this at all.

first as a standalone post it feels like a drive by. we have like 8-9 hours left in the day, i think the time for pressure votes may have come and gone, especially since omtose hasn't showed up since his own drive by vote (which is pretty scummy too, tbh). almost everyone has voted. karosis, you have only real 2 posts this whole game. 2 posts and then a "pressure vote" to tie up KF and omtose to the point where no matter where I vote, someone has to switch their vote to get a lynch. this is after never mentioning omtose previously...until Dem makes a case and votes omtose. stalling?

Dem has legitimate questions for omtose (which others have already mentioned, myself included), but karosis hops on to even things out fairly quickly and without a lot of reasoning. his promised read up on Ryll (which would have been worthwhile) came down to "summary of other cases is good, ryll is scummy". even when ryll directly responded to karosis, we get an omtose vote instead of a reply.

this looks like deflection intended to stall the KF lynch imo, which just reinforces my suspicions of him.

vote kadagar fant



Ryll more inclined to vote Omtose than KF, and indeed votes there later.

View PostRyllandaras, on 09 October 2015 - 04:37 PM, said:

Liosan looks as though he is defending Omtose and has actually voted elsewhere. Putting Kadagar at L1. I don't like it. How many votes on Omtose now?

Out of Kadagar and Omtose I'm more inclined to vote the latter.


#297 User is offline   Monok Ochem 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 04:37 PM

So actually what most immediately stands out to me is not any particular relationship, but how much Aparal jumps onto bandwagons.

#298 User is offline   Monok Ochem 

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 04:38 PM

Or...what Karosis said much more succinctly. Sigh.

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 04:38 PM

Anyways, I need to go get a pad and paper and draw this out. Will be back in a bit.

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Posted 14 October 2015 - 05:33 PM

I don't have a lot of time at the moment so i can't do a full reread with supporting quotes but i did want to say a few things since days' end is approaching

AF is my top choice right now. i would vote omtose probably because I think waiting on a modkill is usually a bad idea, we lose (usually) 3 players that day instead of 2, no CF on omtose. i dunno, i'm just not a fan, esp because his CF would be very very interesting at this point. anyway

it looks like others have latched on to AF's play as well, i haven't had time to read through the quote blocks, but basically AF has done nothing all game except quote some stuff, vote people, and pretend like he made a case. he hasn't actually contributed anything all game, imo, which is very scummy, and he's been under the radar while we all have focused on day 1 shit . i'll be back before timeout but right now that's where my vote is going

vote aparal forge

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