[Demelain]

Okay, I'm here now. I'm actually on my way home (train), so I'll post more when I actually get there.

Not a whole lot of posts today, yet, so I'm just going to add an observation

First of all, this post catches my eye, as something is off:

 Aparal Forge, on 07 October 2015 - 06:34 AM, said:

So I went back and took a look at Fanderay. He comes off as a serious player who was also bothered by Ryll.

NK to weaken a day 2 case against Ryll?

My first impression was something like Mockra's, that it's a really lazy post, but that's not it. The thing that strikes me is that AF mentions that they "went back and took a look at Fanderay". Inferring from the rest of their post, they looked specifically for those players under the suspicion of Fanderay. So, what I find odd is that during that read, they "failed" to catch this significant post, as it shows the development of Fanderay's suspicion during D1:

 Fanderay, on 06 October 2015 - 10:03 PM, said:

im open to alternatives KF is sketchy, ryl is jumpy but that could just as easily a simply misstep, we all do it time to time. At this point in the game however i don't see the value in keeping emurh around.He could be a symp betting on us not thinking hes a symp (wifom i know), regardless everytime we discuss future lynch candidates hes going to be brought up

I think this post is significant because AF tries to make the case that Fanderay is killed because of his attention to Ryll. Well, it's kinda odd to not mention that during the day, Fanderay also noted that he thought KF was was sketchy. (Fanderay was actually writing down a lot of thoughts*, they even let Ryll a bit off the hook here with the "mistep" part.) So, if you are truly interested in noting the players Fanderay showed suspicion for, KF should have been on the list.

Why did you fail to mention that? As you've stated that you actually went back to have a look at Fanderay, that kinda speaks against the "laziness hypothesis". Moreover, despite Fanderay being the second-most active player, there weren't that many posts to look at. So what other reasons can you have to not mention this? We already spend a day basically focussing on one player.

[Ryllandaras]

Had a long and busy day today. Thoughts will follow after a good night's sleep.

[Demelain]

Okay, I'll add more tomorrow. I would like to have an answer from AF first.

[Kadagar Fant]

I guess everyone went back to work today... myself included

[Karosis]

Trying to determine if Emurlahns posts had a point behind and if they connect to anyone. His posts had to have a goal, especially since he continued.

Em wants to to vote no/low posts going alphebetically.

He votes Liosan. Liosan shows up and posts that he is present. Right after, Em takes vote off.

He voted Monok even though he must see that is not the wisest thing to do at that point.

Monok Ochem shows up and places a few posts, with saying hes not particulary fond of voting Em.

Em comes back, says he will on low posters, removes vote and does not place another one.

Traction on Em vote. Em goes bersek, "reveals"

Liosan goes off on Em

Monok votes Em

Liosan votes Em (extra vote, Im pretty sure)

If there is a relationship between Em votes and the respective players, the only thing that pops up is how Liosan wrote all this shit late in the day that everyone already voiced, and eventually voted for Em as an extra vote. Could it be possible that Em purposely voted Liosan to signal and then when he got flack for it he made it seem like he was doing the proper and calculated thing and continued to vote on Monek? Then Liosan stepped in, seeing how Em was about to get lynched and distancing himself by posting all that.

Was it also necessary to post all that stuff about Fanderay right before it was clear that Em was going to be lynched? Did Liosan include all that stuff about Fanderay just so he can look cleaner when Fanderay was killed that night?

Hmm.

[Aparal Forge]

 Demelain, on 07 October 2015 - 08:33 PM, said:

Okay, I'm here now. I'm actually on my way home (train), so I'll post more when I actually get there.

Not a whole lot of posts today, yet, so I'm just going to add an observation

First of all, this post catches my eye, as something is off:

 Aparal Forge, on 07 October 2015 - 06:34 AM, said:

So I went back and took a look at Fanderay. He comes off as a serious player who was also bothered by Ryll.

NK to weaken a day 2 case against Ryll?

My first impression was something like Mockra's, that it's a really lazy post, but that's not it. The thing that strikes me is that AF mentions that they "went back and took a look at Fanderay". Inferring from the rest of their post, they looked specifically for those players under the suspicion of Fanderay. So, what I find odd is that during that read, they "failed" to catch this significant post, as it shows the development of Fanderay's suspicion during D1:

 Fanderay, on 06 October 2015 - 10:03 PM, said:

im open to alternatives KF is sketchy, ryl is jumpy but that could just as easily a simply misstep, we all do it time to time. At this point in the game however i don't see the value in keeping emurh around.He could be a symp betting on us not thinking hes a symp (wifom i know), regardless everytime we discuss future lynch candidates hes going to be brought up

I think this post is significant because AF tries to make the case that Fanderay is killed because of his attention to Ryll. Well, it's kinda odd to not mention that during the day, Fanderay also noted that he thought KF was was sketchy. (Fanderay was actually writing down a lot of thoughts*, they even let Ryll a bit off the hook here with the "mistep" part.) So, if you are truly interested in noting the players Fanderay showed suspicion for, KF should have been on the list.

Why did you fail to mention that? As you've stated that you actually went back to have a look at Fanderay, that kinda speaks against the "laziness hypothesis". Moreover, despite Fanderay being the second-most active player, there weren't that many posts to look at. So what other reasons can you have to not mention this? We already spend a day basically focussing on one player.

I actually did have that in my sights, but I had too many quote blocks. I deleted a couple. I meant to go add it later but couldn't mainly due to mobile.

Fanderay was conscious of a lot, and he challenged more than just Ryll. To scum that made him a dangerous player. He may have been NKd because of that alone or because he focussed on Ryll.

I think Liosan's late surge on him may have been a way of deflecting NK suspicion.

[Omtose]

From memory and my notes from yesterday Id probably follow a KF vote, just out of bed

[Liosan]

i am around and reading up a bit. slowest day 2 ever, probably because day 1 ended so bizarrely. anyone else here? p-s could we get a time update? i think we only have a few hours.

[Liosan]

nope, okay then

i will reread by myself again here, uh, talking to myself

that's chaos theory.

[Liosan]

 Karosis, on 08 October 2015 - 01:13 AM, said:

Trying to determine if Emurlahns posts had a point behind and if they connect to anyone. His posts had to have a goal, especially since he continued.

Em wants to to vote no/low posts going alphebetically.

He votes Liosan. Liosan shows up and posts that he is present. Right after, Em takes vote off.

He voted Monok even though he must see that is not the wisest thing to do at that point.

Monok Ochem shows up and places a few posts, with saying hes not particulary fond of voting Em.

Em comes back, says he will on low posters, removes vote and does not place another one.

Traction on Em vote. Em goes bersek, "reveals"

Liosan goes off on Em

Monok votes Em

Liosan votes Em (extra vote, Im pretty sure)

If there is a relationship between Em votes and the respective players, the only thing that pops up is how Liosan wrote all this shit late in the day that everyone already voiced, and eventually voted for Em as an extra vote. Could it be possible that Em purposely voted Liosan to signal and then when he got flack for it he made it seem like he was doing the proper and calculated thing and continued to vote on Monek? Then Liosan stepped in, seeing how Em was about to get lynched and distancing himself by posting all that.

Was it also necessary to post all that stuff about Fanderay right before it was clear that Em was going to be lynched? Did Liosan include all that stuff about Fanderay just so he can look cleaner when Fanderay was killed that night?

Hmm.

his posts did NOT have to have some goal, are you seriously pretending to know why emur did the things he did? just...stfu.

i realize i can't exactly escape the OMGUS aspect of my response here (or really, to almost anything that's been said recently...) but that's just how it is so i'm going to ignore it.

i don't like this post. why are there so many summaries? someone else made one earlier too. why the fuck would you waste time summarizing a few dozen posts when anyone could go reread them in a few minutes? i was always a fan of the "scum make lists" generalization, for various reasons.

so big summary, great, thank you for your fucking contribution. in the end, after all of that, your SOLE CONCLUSION is that emurlan MUST have been a symp - my symp, actually - since he CF'd RI after apparently fake revealing as healer, if we are to believe the flavor text. personally i am not counting that as gospel. if it is then it means emur is either bad RI (because he sealed his lynch and wasted day 2 on this still) or really a symp who fake revealed to presumable sow confusion on thread and make people waste time looking at who he talked to, etc..... actually, if he WAS a symp, this would be a bad play, assuming he had tried to signal the killers in any way sincee he must have known that his posts would be scrutinized after a fake healer reveal. and he only did so before the hammer, making the reveal seem like emur was waiting to see if he was really going to get lynched before claiming healer.

then you go into WIFOM about fanderay. in fact there is so much day 2 WIFOM its amazing. either that or i've just reread the same few pages too many times. i won't even bother addressing it.

so whether emur was a symp or not and whether or not his reveal - true or fake- makes him more or less scummy isn't the issue i want to address. i want to know why karosis is trying to paint emur so hard as a symp when it was the day 1 lynch - the lowest possible odds for hitting the symp, assuming there is just one - when i am not seeing the connection he is making to emur's supposed master, which apparently happens to be me according to karosis. well, fuck.

i think this post is an attempt to deflect and capitalize on the craziness at the end of day 1 by rehashing emur's posts and votes, which he was already at L-1 for by the time he revealed healer. weak weak weak. but now i need to reread up on karosis before I can say more.

[Liosan]

 Omtose, on 08 October 2015 - 05:55 AM, said:

From memory and my notes from yesterday Id probably follow a KF vote, just out of bed

any chance you can rehash the KF vote logic for me? (LOL I ASKED FOR A SUMMARY THE IRONY IS SO RICH)

but no really, yeah, what is the beef between you and KF? his vote is on you correct? what is the dealio.

[Liosan]

 Monok Ochem, on 07 October 2015 - 01:43 PM, said:

So in what way does it strike you as significant? You're saying Omtose protested Emur's lynch...who turned out to be a symp at worst and so no scum would have known him (and even if they did, would not have bothered leaping to their defense).

So it looks like you're trying to link Omtose to Emur there, but the link doesn't particularly make sense knowing what we know of Emur's CF.

so it looks like this is the main reason for the KF vote, which monok lays right after this. KF's response makes no sense though - if you are trying to paint emur as omtose's symp because omtose defended against his lynch...how does this even work? in what standard mafia game does a killer know his symp? and even if he did, are you really saying that the killer would have risked association with trying to block a rolling lynch train just for a chance to save a symp? no way. doesn't compute. dog won't hunt. etc.

based on this so far i'd be willing to vote KF. i think we're almost out of time (?)

[Mockra]

 Kadagar Fant, on 07 October 2015 - 08:18 PM, said:

Guess I'll stick my money where my mouth is

vote Omtose

The only link you bring up to Omtose perhaps being scum is Emurlahn replying to him by taking his joke-logic one step further. It is further based on Emurlahn being a symp. For which there is no proof. Nor will there ever be.

I am perfectly okay with a case where player A is scummy for reason X, Y and Z and repeated interactions, distancing, defense, word twisting et cetera by other players being used as a signal of common interest that wouldn't be there between regular townies who don't know one another.

This is not such a case. Instead the basis of your "case" is that Emur is the symp. Then you look for a connection with another player, you find one, assume this is the evidence you need that this is Emur's boss and presto! a case is born.
You blatantly fail to take into account that Emur revealed healer, which might have attracted the NK if he wasn't lynched (wifom, I know, but if town would accept the reveal, the killers might have taken a shot at him just to be sure).

Question:
Would a symp, the only guy who knows the entire scum team, put himself in a position where they at the very least have to consider him as a NK target?

Answer:
It is the one thing he really shouldn't do. If a symp can cause chaos and misdirect town, awesome. He actively contributes. If he can't but is silent and votes to lynch certified town, then he still contributes numbers to the scum case, and so speeds up victory for his faction.
If he somehow actively puts himself in the crosshairs of his own masters, then he is making things more difficult for them. If they do decide to kill him, they waste a kill that would otherwise have been spent on town and they lower their own numbers. If that was the play, then that's the only way Gnaw's suicide-by-reveal could possibly be worse than it already is.

The one possibility that I am willing to take into account for Gnaw being a symp, is that his reveal was intended to get the real healer to counter-reveal, which was a very, very slim chance. If that was Emur's play, then it reeks of desperation, for which there was no cause, not with 2 votes already available on another player - unless that player was scum and Gnaw decided to sacrifice himself for that player - which would either be Ryllandaras (he was at 2 votes) or Kadagar Fant (who, immediately before the reveal, started to get a vote from MO and some agreement on his assessment from Anomandaris and Fanderay - who then got killed).

Based on all that, the assumption that Emur is a symp and the timing of his reveal would point towards him protecting Kadagar Fant, imho.

[Mockra]

 Liosan, on 08 October 2015 - 07:12 AM, said:

 Omtose, on 08 October 2015 - 05:55 AM, said:

From memory and my notes from yesterday Id probably follow a KF vote, just out of bed

any chance you can rehash the KF vote logic for me? (LOL I ASKED FOR A SUMMARY THE IRONY IS SO RICH)

but no really, yeah, what is the beef between you and KF? his vote is on you correct? what is the dealio.

I think the last two paragraphs give a decent summary of why KF could be suspect.

[Liosan]

mockra, i agree with most of what you said there, at least about why KF looks vote-worthy. it is funny though that in the end you end up agreeing with KF that emur is/was/coudlhavebeen the symp and that's where both of your cases rest (I mean, you posted a pretty decent writeup on it, unlike KF, it's just the coincidence i find funny).

all of that plus the weird monok/omtose/KF triangle going on is making me lean towards a KF vote. I think we have like 5 hours left or something? hopefully there will be more people on soon. i will be around for as long as i can but i will probably lay a vote soon in case i have to leave suddenly.

[Liosan]

ok i did a full reread on karosis and that post of his that i quoted is his only post of any value, everything else is banter or one-liners. I am disapoint. so... there isn't really much to go off of except that he showed up right after the lynch and posted twice. that is kind of odd timing but as with his lack of content it is circumstantial at this point. if the pattern continues i will be more suspicious.

for now, since mockra left me and i'm so alone

vote kadagar fant

i'll probably be around another hour or so, tops.

[Mockra]

 Liosan, on 08 October 2015 - 07:59 AM, said:

mockra, i agree with most of what you said there, at least about why KF looks vote-worthy. it is funny though that in the end you end up agreeing with KF that emur is/was/coudlhavebeen the symp and that's where both of your cases rest (I mean, you posted a pretty decent writeup on it, unlike KF, it's just the coincidence i find funny).

all of that plus the weird monok/omtose/KF triangle going on is making me lean towards a KF vote. I think we have like 5 hours left or something? hopefully there will be more people on soon. i will be around for as long as i can but i will probably lay a vote soon in case i have to leave suddenly.

The fact I don't vote for KF right now is telling, I guess. I made a decent write-up but that doesn't change the fact that this is still a case based on a day-and-a-half of behavior, a symp assumption that by my own standard shouldn't be a major argument, plus NK interpretation wifom as a minor supporting argument.

If I wanted to strengthen the NK interpretation component, I could assume that the killers operate by the Silencer doctrine (aka: as scum, always kill your most vocal opponent. If it backfires, claim wifom. 90% of the time you don't have to, as town will do that for you).
However, the assumptionn that killers operate by that principle is wifom in itself

That said, I agree with the opinions that consider KF's playstyle suspect. I just get distracted by Aparal Forge a lot, and I think Rhyllandaras is hardly inspiring either.

[Ryllandaras]

Just getting caught up. My interpretation is that Emur was the symp. So it's going on WIFOM territory looking at his later actions as they would be more methodical. His earliest action was to vote for Liosan. Immediately I thought that this could be a red herring, trying to get us to focus on Lio through maybe a signalling case. I said as much day one. However, what if it was a signal? I point out that Emur was a symp, Omtose reacts quite strongly to this. Why? Well what of the possibility that Omtose and Liosan are partnered? That does explain a lot.

I just cannot see it being that easy. Other people have made some good observations but I think the best course of action today would be to lynch Liosan.

At first he stays clear of the thread, then ups his activity towards the end of day. Then today he seems to be asking for other people's thoughts.

Omtose was one of the higher posters yesterday but has said little today. I think we're raking up the wrong tree with kadagar.

vote liosan

[Ryllandaras]

 Karosis, on 08 October 2015 - 01:13 AM, said:

Trying to determine if Emurlahns posts had a point behind and if they connect to anyone. His posts had to have a goal, especially since he continued.

Em wants to to vote no/low posts going alphebetically.

He votes Liosan. Liosan shows up and posts that he is present. Right after, Em takes vote off.

He voted Monok even though he must see that is not the wisest thing to do at that point.

Monok Ochem shows up and places a few posts, with saying hes not particulary fond of voting Em.

Em comes back, says he will on low posters, removes vote and does not place another one.

Traction on Em vote. Em goes bersek, "reveals"

Liosan goes off on Em

Monok votes Em

Liosan votes Em (extra vote, Im pretty sure)

If there is a relationship between Em votes and the respective players, the only thing that pops up is how Liosan wrote all this shit late in the day that everyone already voiced, and eventually voted for Em as an extra vote. Could it be possible that Em purposely voted Liosan to signal and then when he got flack for it he made it seem like he was doing the proper and calculated thing and continued to vote on Monek? Then Liosan stepped in, seeing how Em was about to get lynched and distancing himself by posting all that.

Was it also necessary to post all that stuff about Fanderay right before it was clear that Em was going to be lynched? Did Liosan include all that stuff about Fanderay just so he can look cleaner when Fanderay was killed that night?

Hmm.

Karosis seems to say it better here but doesn't actually put a vote down.

[Ryllandaras]

 Omtose, on 08 October 2015 - 05:55 AM, said:

From memory and my notes from yesterday Id probably follow a KF vote, just out of bed

I'd like to hear more on the why here.