[QuickTidal]

Tiste Simeon, on 31 March 2025 - 12:26 PM, said:

Big article on the BBC today about Danielle Smith, she seems like a piece of work (though I already assumed that from you guys).

Here's hoping her brand of insanity divides the right further.

BBC News - The Canadian Conservative trying to sweet talk Trump
https://www.bbc.com/...es/c0jgx10z8qqo

I think she really thinks that separating Alberta and becoming a US state is a viable path. She's trying desperately to re-awaken an old separation thing in Canada called "WeXit" where some people in Alberta, Sask (and maybe BC?) wanted to separate from Canada...

The amusing thing is that Alberta and Sask don't seem to realize that their land is mostly Crown land (owned by Canada as a whole), and Treaty Land with the Indigenous, all of which would revert back to Canada if Alberta or Sask were able to separate. Leaving them with tiny slivers of land near the border.

That said, it would never even GET that far as Canada has handled land crises before and they deal with it with FORCE...Oka, the Grand River Dispute, Quebec Separation attempt....all dealt with either with force or with diplomacy that scared the populous (Quebec referendum 1995, while close frightened the people who didn't want to deal with what Quebec as an autonomous state with a moderately hostile Canada on other side of it from any economic standpoint). Any WeXit thing would be the same...Smith is dumb and just thinks like Trump that she can push through and argue from the other side...it's been her MO since she was the far right Wild Rose Party....but she never thinks things through like this...

anyways, She's essentially padding her route out of her leadership come election...and after that I would put GOOD money on her jumping to the States.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 31 March 2025 - 12:59 PM

[Tiste Simeon]

I hope you're right. She's definitely the type to turn up at some kind of conservative conference as one of a guest speaker in a line up of Generic Whites, where she would tearfully talk about how the woke has taken her beloved Canada from her or something.

[LinearPhilosopher]

QuickTidal, on 30 March 2025 - 04:49 PM, said:

LinearPhilosopher, on 28 March 2025 - 11:02 PM, said:

The reason the price for new builds are jacked was the cost of materials and labor went through the roof (looking at financials for construction companies is not fun let me tell ya).

Materials and labor didn’t go through the roof for no reason…they went through the roof because everyone took covid as an excuse to gouge (claiming supply chain issues)and never stopped gouging. All down the line. And the builders are in on it.

I could give a sweet fuck about anything else. The bottom line is none of this stuff should still be overpriced, and yet here we are.

Yes the builders are in on it as well, including the hundreds of construction bankruptcies we've seen in the last few months. I guess no one clued them into the joke.


In other news
https://www.cbc.ca/n...lding-1.7497947

This is some ambitious policy that might actually make a decent impact on the supply shortage.

Also interesting they are reviving an old tax policy from the 80s.
https://publications...14-1981-eng.pdf

[QuickTidal]

 Tiste Simeon, on 31 March 2025 - 01:09 PM, said:

I hope you're right. She's definitely the type to turn up at some kind of conservative conference as one of a guest speaker in a line up of Generic Whites, where she would tearfully talk about how the woke has taken her beloved Canada from her or something.

I have no fears whatsoever that any of the provinces in Canada are leaving, or more exactly that their land will become independent of Canada. We may not be the most militarily minded country at present, but we also don't tolerate shit when it goes down.

[QuickTidal]

So on Trump's Tariff Day, little PP FINALLY comes out with what he calls a "plan" to deal with Trump and support Canada if he wins the election...and I'm here to lay it out for you all and tell you why it's ALL terrible.

Firstly he claims that he's not been directly lobbying the US for a reprieve on tariffs, or going on American TV to plead our case (a dig at Ford clearly)...but has been doing his "homework" to plan a neutralization of Trump's tariffs and threats of tariffs.

He claims he would renegotiate the trade deal with the US as soon as possible - Except we did that the last time Trump was in office and he's still doing this now in complete violation of his own negotiated agreement...so this is pointless.

He reiterates that he will cut income tax (the aforementioned 2.25%)...which I guess sorta helps but also takes away money from the govt to help the people who DO lose their jobs or whathaveyou from a recession/trade war...who would then not be paying ANY tax....so that's mostly pointless too.

He would reduce the Capital Gains Tax burden on people investing in Canada, Helping wealthy people to use their assets and money, when tough financial times arrives, to roll over their investments without paying tax so they can buy more assets....This helps no one but wealthy people.

And he says he would give businesses liquidity support programs to keep their companies afloat, instead of doing what the Liberals did during covid and giving money to the working class people money to keep them afloat...so again, helping wealthy people over working people....

And the main part of his plan, which is the stupidest, is to build what he calls an "Economic Fortress" by turbocharging oil and gas development and pipeline construction to get more of Western Canada's resources to other parts of the country and around the world, lessening the country's dependance on American market...so firstly the MAJORTy of oil and gas companies in Canada....are American-owned...so his plan is to build an economic fortress AGAINST America by doing something that helps and turbocharges American companies interests in Canada? And it gets worse...appox 76% of Canadas total exports go to the US, and 97% of our oil and gas exports go to the US...so his plan to fight the US is to turbocharge the industry that is entirely reliant on exporting almost all of their product to the US?

And for the people who are like "Well that's why we need more pipelines and shipping so that we can export to places other than the US!"....Except that's never ever been a viable path for anyone with knowledge about the industry above the pay grade of the grunts in Alberta who think it's doable...because worldwide oil market factors are in play, which shows us that MSOT other countries don't want to buy CDN crude because it is heavy and sour, and requires specialized refineries and infrastructure...so they can get lighter and sweeter oil from other countries for the same or less price (US refineries in the Midwest are plentiful to handle our bitumen, because that's what they were setup to do)...like this is why for example China has not been interested in buying our product it costs them more and they can get better quality elsewhere...and even in the magical dream land that PP lives in where they MIGHT buy our product, it would take those countries YEARS to make those deals go through, and more years than that to set up refineries to handle our crude, and it would take years for us to make the pipelines a reality...and all the interim investment would go where? THE USA....

PP's plan makes less than zero sense....but he's depending on the fact that enough people buy into it at a surface level (and the low level grunts in Albtera who don't know any better and believe their govt lies about their waning industry) so he might squeak into power...

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 03 April 2025 - 05:04 PM

[Abyss]

It looks like a plan directed at the people who were already going to vote for him, i do not think it's enough to sway undecideds or bring back anyone who's already gone liberal.
The shot at Ford (it was totally a shot) is pretty amazing, that break has really widened.

[QuickTidal]

Abyss, on 03 April 2025 - 05:45 PM, said:

It looks like a plan directed at the people who were already going to vote for him, i do not think it's enough to sway undecideds or bring back anyone who's already gone liberal.
The shot at Ford (it was totally a shot) is pretty amazing, that break has really widened.

And everyone is still trying to make the Paul Chiang thing stick to Carney...while FOUR Candidates from the CPC have been turfed for similar shitty shenanigans....but then you have people like Aaron Gunn who is still in the party and has sad heinous ass shit as recently as LAST night (praising Vladimir Putin and saying he 'put an end to the disastrous experiment with western democracy’( <-----like holy shitburgers), and downplaying his attacks on LGBT people in Russia with the CPC response email defending him, residential school denialism and the party’s defence of him), and Andrew Layton (Host for a far right online ‘news’ site True North. Said a bunch of nasty stuff, including that businesses should be allowed to discriminate based on race), and Steve Kent who resigned’ from his previous city job several years ago for bullying and harassing women and has taken photos with a MAGA hat on. All still on the party...Hell Layton writer a book about PP....so chances PP turfs him are slim....but yeah all these people are still in the party and supported, but somehow only Chiang is newsworthy to CPC voters? Dafuq?

But yeah, it's definitely not a plan aimed at anyone who was undecided or trying to pull anyone from other party affiliation. It's just annoying that none of the press seem allowed to press him on it because as we sw the other day, followup or unapproved questions just get skirted and you booted out of the scrum, or your reporter physically shoved, hand in front of cameras...wild.

This post has been edited by QuickTidal: 03 April 2025 - 06:32 PM

[LinearPhilosopher]

About the capital gains proposal that PP put forward that he wants to implement it in mid june. I have enough PTSD from Justin Trudeau and all of his terrible tax plans. This is terrible policy.

Like never mind that both tories and liberals got the math wrong on the tax breaks they are offering, I get it, they are politicians/economists and probably never filed their own tax returns. But proposing tax changes part way through a calendar year is a recipe for disaster.

I also had the misfortune of watching that series of interviews RDI did this week with all the candidates. If I had to take a shot every time PP answered a question by blaming JT I would not have made it into work the next day.

It's honestly pathetic. He's an attack dog that's managed to climb beyond his abilities and it's on full display in this election.

This post has been edited by LinearPhilosopher: 06 April 2025 - 02:26 PM

[Tiste Simeon]

I'm not sure I fully understand what exactly went on here but it seems like Carney did something pretty good - https://www.wallawal...neys-checkmates

I really hope this guy wins!

[LinearPhilosopher]

Tiste Simeon, on 12 April 2025 - 03:38 PM, said:

I'm not sure I fully understand what exactly went on here but it seems like Carney did something pretty good - https://www.wallawal...neys-checkmates

I really hope this guy wins!

China is conspicuously absent though, I'm pretty sure they hold substantial bonds and also started selling.

[LinearPhilosopher]

 Tiste Simeon, on 12 April 2025 - 03:38 PM, said:

I'm not sure I fully understand what exactly went on here but it seems like Carney did something pretty good - https://www.wallawal...neys-checkmates

I really hope this guy wins!

https://www.reddit.c...uiet_bond_play/

Might want to double check your source

[Tiste Simeon]

 LinearPhilosopher, on 12 April 2025 - 09:40 PM, said:

 Tiste Simeon, on 12 April 2025 - 03:38 PM, said:

I'm not sure I fully understand what exactly went on here but it seems like Carney did something pretty good - https://www.wallawal...neys-checkmates

I really hope this guy wins!

https://www.reddit.c...uiet_bond_play/

Might want to double check your source

Thanks. It looks like there's some not so true things in there amongst some things that might be true (e.g. the fact that other countries good these bonds and as such hold debt over America is true.) I'm always willing to learn more!

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Tiste Simeon, on 12 April 2025 - 10:00 PM, said:

Thanks. It looks like there's some not so true things in there amongst some things that might be true (e.g. the fact that other countries good these bonds and as such hold debt over America is true.) I'm always willing to learn more!

It's not clear yet whether selling by foreign governments (particularly China) has been a major contributor to the rise in US treasury yields.

Quote

There are [...] suggestions in markets, albeit lacking the hard evidence to back them up, that Treasuries may have fallen because China is selling or shunning them. Some debate whether Beijing might eventually dump US debt as a response to the US tariffs.

[...] "We are being treated by global financial markets like a problematic emerging market," [...] "this could set off all kinds of vicious spirals, given government debts and deficits and dependence on foreign purchasers."

If foreign investors do decide to continue retreating from US assets, the pain could be substantial. They hold about $7 trillion in Treasuries, $19 trillion of equities and $5 trillion of corporate debt, accounting for about 20% to 30% of the total market

If recent history is any guide, a buyers' strike may have long-lasting repercussions for US borrowing costs.

Just three years ago, investor pushback against UK Prime Minister Liz Truss' unfunded tax cuts fueled a surge in yields the country has yet to recover from, while the pound never bounced back from 2016's Brexit vote.

https://finance.yaho...-092955293.html

So my CAOS still has hope....

OTOH:

Quote

"If China was selling then front end yields should be higher but they are not, and hence we doubt it's China selling," said the strategist at TD Securities. "This selloff in Treasuries is primarily at the long end of the curve, and speaks to broader investor re-allocation."

[...] While Chinese authorities will release April foreign-exchange reserves data on May 7, investors will have to wait until May 30 to see an actual change in securities held in reserves. A clearer indication can be found from the US government's portfolio flow data due June 18, meaning as of now, no one can tell for sure if some of China's Treasuries holdings have been sold.

Bond Analysts Debate If China Had Role in Treasuries Swings

So if they probably haven't yet... then yields can go up by even more if they do (and even the credible threat of it will induce selling, driving yields up even more).

One way it could cause a global financial crisis is explained in this article (linked to and endorsed by Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman):

Quote

financial regulators have been regulatorily treating United States Treasury Securities as "money" without making sure that the infrastructure was there to guarantee its liquidity on a 24-7 basis. More generally, we've increasingly relied on institutions like hedge funds to hold large amounts of financial assets as we discouraged large banks from doing so. Hedge Funds run on leverage. As market volatility explodes, they sell assets in an attempt to deleverage. But they were absorbing assets for the rest of the economic system. For every seller there must be a buyer. So more buyers must be forthcoming or prices need to decline to fit these big assets in the ever smaller amount of "free balance sheet space". Think of a clown car.

Hedge Funds, and other similar non-bank firms, attempts to shrink their balance sheets will lead others to try to shrink their balance sheet which will just cause further market dislocations in superficially unrelated markets. This deleveraging pressure is clearly happening globally. [...]

[...] who absorbs assets from the asset absorbers?

Why, the Federal Reserve of course. Unlike a lot of commentators, I think they will step in and stabilize financial markets domestically. The tricky question is… will they do so globally? In 2008, and again in 2020, "Swap Lines" (think "lines of credit") with other central banks has been critical to stabilizing global financial markets. [...] Why would Trump want to cut off the rest of the world until they end their trade deficits with the United States, as well as cut off foreign aid, but be okay with [...] the Federal Reserve lending trillions of dollars to foreign central banks?

104% China Tariffs Came into Effect at Midnight. We Instantly Entered this Crisis's "Lehman Brothers" Moment - Notes on the Crises

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 13 April 2025 - 12:42 AM