[Serc]

Path-Shaper, on 03 November 2014 - 05:10 PM, said:

It is Night 0. 12 hours and 15 minutes left.
Players aktive: Alkend, Ampelas, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kalse, Korabas, Merrid, Meanas, Omtose, Ruse, Serc, Telas, Thyrllan

God, 12 hours before the game even begins? Take the slackers and give them random targets for each action!

[Path-Shaper]

Serc, on 03 November 2014 - 05:17 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 03 November 2014 - 05:10 PM, said:

It is Night 0. 12 hours and 15 minutes left.
Players aktive: Alkend, Ampelas, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kalse, Korabas, Merrid, Meanas, Omtose, Ruse, Serc, Telas, Thyrllan

God, 12 hours before the game even begins? Take the slackers and give them random targets for each action!

Tempting.

[Serc]

Path-Shaper, on 03 November 2014 - 05:20 PM, said:

Serc, on 03 November 2014 - 05:17 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 03 November 2014 - 05:10 PM, said:

It is Night 0. 12 hours and 15 minutes left.
Players aktive: Alkend, Ampelas, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kalse, Korabas, Merrid, Meanas, Omtose, Ruse, Serc, Telas, Thyrllan

God, 12 hours before the game even begins? Take the slackers and give them random targets for each action!

Tempting.

Do it and I give you a bit of my Twix.

[Serc]

Nevermind, there was an accident with the Quantum Analyser and, well, the twix is gone. Completely.

[Path-Shaper]

Serc, on 03 November 2014 - 05:56 PM, said:

Nevermind, there was an accident with the Quantum Analyser and, well, the twix is gone. Completely.

Awww...well, that means you just have to be patient now.

[Serc]

Path-Shaper, on 03 November 2014 - 06:08 PM, said:

Serc, on 03 November 2014 - 05:56 PM, said:

Nevermind, there was an accident with the Quantum Analyser and, well, the twix is gone. Completely.

Awww...well, that means you just have to be patient now.

Did you not hear about what happened to the Twix? Patience isn't exactly my strong suit!

[Galayn Lord]

Vote Dawn

[Path-Shaper]

Well, it's bedtime for me and I'm still missing orders. Day will start once I get up tomorrow morning.

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 03 November 2014 - 10:38 PM

[Alkend]

Hah. It's a new dawn, it's a new day. Or is it?

[Path-Shaper]

Thought experiment:

See that playing card there, balanced on one edge? When it falls, it will fall in two directions at once.

Thyrllan has been modkilled for inactivity. He was town.


It is Day 1. 36 hours left.
Players aktive: Alkend, Ampelas, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kalse, Korabas, Merrid, Meanas, Omtose, Ruse, Serc, Telas
7 votes needed for a lynch.


Current status on all players:
Player - alive - dead -town - scum
1.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
2.........100%....0%...82%.....18%
3.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
4..........82%...18%...90%.....10%
5..........78%...22%...83%.....17%
6.........100%....0%...82%.....18%
7..........91%....9%...83%.....17%
8..........88%...12%...81%.....19%
9..........92%....8%...82%.....18%
10.......100%....0%...88%.....12%
11.......100%....0%...77%.....23%
12.......100%....0%...79%.....21%
13.........0%...100%..100%.....0%

Number of possible realities: 773

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 04 November 2014 - 02:05 PM

[Ruse]

Good work everyone, we've more than halved the number of probabilities. That's progress I guess.

Seems like a fair few targetted number 5 with kills, if I'm understanding this right. But currently numbers 11 and 12 hold the greatest likelihood for scum. If we all coordinated on certain targets could we maybe make this a more methodical process?

[Ampelas]

Number 10, 11 and 12 have not been targeted by a kill but one has least likelihood of being scum and two have the highest probability. Strange.

[Alkend]

Ruse, on 04 November 2014 - 12:26 PM, said:

Good work everyone, we've more than halved the number of probabilities. That's progress I guess.

Seems like a fair few targetted number 5 with kills, if I'm understanding this right. But currently numbers 11 and 12 hold the greatest likelihood for scum. If we all coordinated on certain targets could we maybe make this a more methodical process?

Not unless you know which alt is connected to which player number.

I am not sure how this probability thing is calculated, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the amount of possible realities diminish exponentially.

I guess players on whom a find was done and who came up as town on said find, are the likeliest to have a higher percentage of being town now (player 4 and 10, I am looking at you). By contrast, players who had a kill go through, have their chance of being scum increased.

I assume player 13 was Thyrllan, who is dead for 100%, CFed as town and was 85% town, so, whomever we lynch, will probably still come up as town (unless the alignment is a dice-roll, then there's roughly a 15-20% chance they'll be scum, I guess).

Is it me, or should #13s alignment become 100% town after their death?



Am I correct if I say that we can make them even more town by targeting those players again with finds?

[Alkend]

Alkend, on 04 November 2014 - 12:57 PM, said:

Ruse, on 04 November 2014 - 12:26 PM, said:

Good work everyone, we've more than halved the number of probabilities. That's progress I guess.

Seems like a fair few targetted number 5 with kills, if I'm understanding this right. But currently numbers 11 and 12 hold the greatest likelihood for scum. If we all coordinated on certain targets could we maybe make this a more methodical process?

Not unless you know which alt is connected to which player number.

I am not sure how this probability thing is calculated, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the amount of possible realities diminish exponentially.

I guess players on whom a find was done and who came up as town on said find, are the likeliest to have a higher percentage of being town now (player 4 and 10, I am looking at you). By contrast, players who had a kill go through, have their chance of being scum increased. Am I correct if I say that we can make these players more town by targeting 4 & 10 again with finds?

I assume player 13 was Thyrllan, who is dead for 100%, CFed as town and was 85% town, so, whomever we lynch, will probably still come up as town (unless the alignment is a dice-roll, then there's roughly a 15-20% chance they'll be scum, I guess).

Is it me, or should #13s alignment become 100% town after their death?

Adjusted to make sense as a sentence.

[Galayn Lord]

Alkend, on 04 November 2014 - 12:57 PM, said:

Am I correct if I say that we can make them even more town by targeting those players again with finds?

Don't know, but that's why I stated who my find was on.

[Omtose]

Hello people. Whatever we all are, whenever we all are, we can rest assured that as dragons we will always get laid.

Woot!

[Omtose]

Except I'm not a dragon.








FUCK!







(me please?)

[Serc]

So finds on town made them more likely to be town, and finds on scum made them less likely to be town, while kill orders from scum also made them more likely to be scum? Does that sound right?

[Ampelas]

Serc, on 04 November 2014 - 01:13 PM, said:

So finds on town made them more likely to be town, and finds on scum made them less likely to be town, while kill orders from scum also made them more likely to be scum? Does that sound right?

No does not sound right to me.

I did my find on Alkend and he came back as town but that does not mean he will stay that way.

[Path-Shaper]

Alkend, on 04 November 2014 - 12:57 PM, said:

I assume player 13 was Thyrllan, who is dead for 100%, CFed as town and was 85% town, so, whomever we lynch, will probably still come up as town (unless the alignment is a dice-roll, then there's roughly a 15-20% chance they'll be scum, I guess).

Is it me, or should #13s alignment become 100% town after their death?

It is now, my bad.