[Meanas]

Ruse, on 05 November 2014 - 02:15 PM, said:

Alkend, on 05 November 2014 - 02:09 PM, said:

I must say I quite enjoy the unease we all have with the mechanics and with the options. It feels like we have nothing to do, but at the same time, we ARE playing a town vs scum game, just one we don't know the rules for. Also, the later in the game it gets, the more players will want to be scum, I guess.

@ Serc: lynching however is the only way to lower the suspect pool and force a die role, complete with the changes of town/scum percentages. With 2 out of 13, the possibility of being scum is the smallest, it will increase over time for all of us, just faster for some than for others, I guess.

As such, if you want a clearer defined game, not lynching doesn't make sense.

Vote Serc

for being a goody-two-shoes.

I would argue that final statement needs revision. Not a clearer defined game, but rather one which is more quickly defined.

However, the downside of that is that you knowingly sacrifice a lot of townies fast before you can get to a point where you can narrow down scum to perhaps two or three suspects. But by that point, because of those actions, scum are also only one or two deaths away from winning - i.e. it might be defined more quickly, but we'll also be likely on or around d-day.

So it would be rather like a badly-played mafia game, lynching randomly people who you know will most likely turn up town, without using or relying on any in-thread information.

To build on this.

It seems to me that we want to narrow the people who have a high scum percentage and not narrow the town players as much. Otherwise we will end up at D-day with very little information. I don't think that there is any information to be gained from lynching right now. Yes I understand it narrows the potential suspect pool but as town we know for sure that any person who is lynched now is town. Once someone gets to 40 or 50% chance of scum then it starts to become a better percentage play to lynch people.

[Galayn Lord]

Kalse, on 05 November 2014 - 02:53 PM, said:

It is clear the actions at Night have an effect on our %ages. Would players 8, 11 and 12 care to enlighten us as to what they did? Or players 4 and 10? I thought not.

That is another point FOR a lynch. Our one data set includes both a death and NAs.

A lynch will give us (if the mod is kind) a data set for just a death and another data set for just NAs.

[Kalse]

Galayn Lord, on 05 November 2014 - 03:00 PM, said:

Kalse, on 05 November 2014 - 02:53 PM, said:

It is clear the actions at Night have an effect on our %ages. Would players 8, 11 and 12 care to enlighten us as to what they did? Or players 4 and 10? I thought not.

That is another point FOR a lynch. Our one data set includes both a death and NAs.

A lynch will give us (if the mod is kind) a data set for just a death and another data set for just NAs.

What evidence do you have for this? We have a data set soley for NAs at the moment. The next set we see I am expecting to be start of D2. No NKs gone through because there is unlikely to be a high chance of all potential killers choosing to kill the same alt.

[Galayn Lord]

Kalse, on 05 November 2014 - 03:15 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 05 November 2014 - 03:00 PM, said:

Kalse, on 05 November 2014 - 02:53 PM, said:

It is clear the actions at Night have an effect on our %ages. Would players 8, 11 and 12 care to enlighten us as to what they did? Or players 4 and 10? I thought not.

That is another point FOR a lynch. Our one data set includes both a death and NAs.

A lynch will give us (if the mod is kind) a data set for just a death and another data set for just NAs.

What evidence do you have for this? We have a data set soley for NAs at the moment. The next set we see I am expecting to be start of D2. No NKs gone through because there is unlikely to be a high chance of all potential killers choosing to kill the same alt.

The current data set includes the death of Thryllan. Therefore all realities in which Thryllan is alive were discarded. So we have a mixed data set.

Some of you want to see the percentages change. So do I. But the more realities we can eliminate, the more important the percentages become.

A poor analogy but let's go with the needle/haystack. Except we've got hundreds of haystacks with needles in them. We're looking for a specific needle that is in a specific haystack. Deaths make haystacks go away. The fewer haystacks, the easier it is to find the specific needle.

[Meanas]

Galayn Lord, on 05 November 2014 - 03:29 PM, said:

Kalse, on 05 November 2014 - 03:15 PM, said:

Galayn Lord, on 05 November 2014 - 03:00 PM, said:

Kalse, on 05 November 2014 - 02:53 PM, said:

It is clear the actions at Night have an effect on our %ages. Would players 8, 11 and 12 care to enlighten us as to what they did? Or players 4 and 10? I thought not.

That is another point FOR a lynch. Our one data set includes both a death and NAs.

A lynch will give us (if the mod is kind) a data set for just a death and another data set for just NAs.

What evidence do you have for this? We have a data set soley for NAs at the moment. The next set we see I am expecting to be start of D2. No NKs gone through because there is unlikely to be a high chance of all potential killers choosing to kill the same alt.

The current data set includes the death of Thryllan. Therefore all realities in which Thryllan is alive were discarded. So we have a mixed data set.

Some of you want to see the percentages change. So do I. But the more realities we can eliminate, the more important the percentages become.

A poor analogy but let's go with the needle/haystack. Except we've got hundreds of haystacks with needles in them. We're looking for a specific needle that is in a specific haystack. Deaths make haystacks go away. The fewer haystacks, the easier it is to find the specific needle.

That is true but the few haystacks also means that we will be at d day with hardly any information. I don't see the benefit of lynching for today.

[Serc]

Okay I had a more serious read and a think at the setup post and I understand how this works a lot better now.

The longer the game goes, the more possible realities we close off and the firmer the %s get to being something we can actually act on.

Currently any action we take will almost certainly shoot town in the foot, but if we leave everyone alive we get more and more contcrete possibilities to act on, without having to lose additional people. We have here the opportunity to effectively start "Day 1" several days into the game with a lot of interaction and behaviours already established. Gives town a much better chance to root out hte scum once there actually are scum to root out, and gives them the biggest resource pool (our lives) to stave off a scum win.

I am now strongly advocating for at least a few "vote nights" once we have had enough time to submit orders and discuss the game each day to give us the best possible chance for town to win.

[Galayn Lord]

PS just confirmed for me that the quantum status update occurs only at dawn. Since part of my argument is wanting to see a data set from NAs alone, I will (reluctantly because I'm still right)

Remove Vote

Vote Night

[Path-Shaper]

It is Day 1. 7 hours and 56 minutes left.
Players aktive: Alkend, Ampelas, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Kalse, Korabas, Merrid, Meanas, Omtose, Ruse, Serc, Telas
7 votes needed for a lynch.

3 votes for Night (Serc, Kalse, GL)
1 vote for Serc (Alkend)

[Galayn Lord]

crosspost Liz

[Alkend]

Serc, on 05 November 2014 - 03:34 PM, said:

Okay I had a more serious read and a think at the setup post and I understand how this works a lot better now.

The longer the game goes, the more possible realities we close off and the firmer the %s get to being something we can actually act on.

Currently any action we take will almost certainly shoot town in the foot, but if we leave everyone alive we get more and more contcrete possibilities to act on, without having to lose additional people. We have here the opportunity to effectively start "Day 1" several days into the game with a lot of interaction and behaviours already established. Gives town a much better chance to root out hte scum once there actually are scum to root out, and gives them the biggest resource pool (our lives) to stave off a scum win.

I am now strongly advocating for at least a few "vote nights" once we have had enough time to submit orders and discuss the game each day to give us the best possible chance for town to win.

But how fast do those realities get reduced? It won't be going down by a lot without deaths, and instead, we see people die from kills by health being gradually eroded, with a large grey scale amongst all alive.

And the pattern of behaviour you'll create will be one of low-posting complacency.
The only real virtue I see in waiting is trying to figure out through night actions which player belongs to which player number.

[Serc]

I'm still willing to argue with you about it, because you are still wrong.

You want to take flamethrowers to the hundreds of haystacks despite knowing that there won't be needles in most of them, and the ones that are left will be harder to find.

I want to take the time to confirm if there are any needles in the haystacks at all before torching them. It gives us a bigger pool of town to work with later on down the road and is the better option for town by far.

[Galayn Lord]

Serc, on 05 November 2014 - 03:47 PM, said:

I'm still willing to argue with you about it, because you are still wrong.

You want to take flamethrowers to the hundreds of haystacks despite knowing that there won't be needles in most of them, and the ones that are left will be harder to find.

I want to take the time to confirm if there are any needles in the haystacks at all before torching them. It gives us a bigger pool of town to work with later on down the road and is the better option for town by far.

We'll see. You're obviously going to get your non-lynch whether by night votes or simple complacency. We'll get our second data set and be able to compare.

[Alkend]

Serc, on 05 November 2014 - 03:47 PM, said:

I'm still willing to argue with you about it, because you are still wrong.

You want to take flamethrowers to the hundreds of haystacks despite knowing that there won't be needles in most of them, and the ones that are left will be harder to find.

I want to take the time to confirm if there are any needles in the haystacks at all before torching them. It gives us a bigger pool of town to work with later on down the road and is the better option for town by far.

Not really. In normal mafia, most lynches also target town. A CF is still a CF, no matter the amount of realities, and the result is actually a result we're going to be sure about. A dead person is a dead person with a 100% alignment that we can trust. Just like in normal mafia. I've never heard anyone argue that a no-lynch will be good repeatedly in standard mafia and unless your method is going to reduce the game state to, say, 5 different realities really, really quickly, it is a dumb way of playing by foregoing certainty through elimination.

Night kills will also be exceptionally slow unless there's a player at 100% scum who has a full kill: making people scum quicker by increasing the % swings is thus a quicker way of returning to a manageable number of realities. Since everyone has to kill, we will probably all get scummy at a near equal rate, apart from the fact that this rate is probably influenced by your own current goodness alignement, finds/being the target of kills and whatnot. So your plan might have us all sit at 53% town, 47% scum and we still get random lynches just hoping the dice fall our way.

[Serc]

Alkend, on 05 November 2014 - 03:58 PM, said:

Serc, on 05 November 2014 - 03:47 PM, said:

I'm still willing to argue with you about it, because you are still wrong.

You want to take flamethrowers to the hundreds of haystacks despite knowing that there won't be needles in most of them, and the ones that are left will be harder to find.

I want to take the time to confirm if there are any needles in the haystacks at all before torching them. It gives us a bigger pool of town to work with later on down the road and is the better option for town by far.

Not really. In normal mafia, most lynches also target town. A CF is still a CF, no matter the amount of realities, and the result is actually a result we're going to be sure about. A dead person is a dead person with a 100% alignment that we can trust. Just like in normal mafia. I've never heard anyone argue that a no-lynch will be good repeatedly in standard mafia and unless your method is going to reduce the game state to, say, 5 different realities really, really quickly, it is a dumb way of playing by foregoing certainty through elimination.

Night kills will also be exceptionally slow unless there's a player at 100% scum who has a full kill: making people scum quicker by increasing the % swings is thus a quicker way of returning to a manageable number of realities. Since everyone has to kill, we will probably all get scummy at a near equal rate, apart from the fact that this rate is probably influenced by your own current goodness alignement, finds/being the target of kills and whatnot. So your plan might have us all sit at 53% town, 47% scum and we still get random lynches just hoping the dice fall our way.

You seriously think that is a bad thing? ARE YOU INSANE?

You think if we are all still alive and sitting at 47% chance to be scum isn't FAR FAR FAR better than what you suggest?


I don't think that is what will happen, not even close, but it is the preferable choice to reducing realities through execution when simple observation has better rewards for the majority of us.

[Galayn Lord]

Alkend, on 05 November 2014 - 03:58 PM, said:

Serc, on 05 November 2014 - 03:47 PM, said:

I'm still willing to argue with you about it, because you are still wrong.

You want to take flamethrowers to the hundreds of haystacks despite knowing that there won't be needles in most of them, and the ones that are left will be harder to find.

I want to take the time to confirm if there are any needles in the haystacks at all before torching them. It gives us a bigger pool of town to work with later on down the road and is the better option for town by far.

Not really. In normal mafia, most lynches also target town. A CF is still a CF, no matter the amount of realities, and the result is actually a result we're going to be sure about. A dead person is a dead person with a 100% alignment that we can trust. Just like in normal mafia. I've never heard anyone argue that a no-lynch will be good repeatedly in standard mafia and unless your method is going to reduce the game state to, say, 5 different realities really, really quickly, it is a dumb way of playing by foregoing certainty through elimination.

Night kills will also be exceptionally slow unless there's a player at 100% scum who has a full kill: making people scum quicker by increasing the % swings is thus a quicker way of returning to a manageable number of realities. Since everyone has to kill, we will probably all get scummy at a near equal rate, apart from the fact that this rate is probably influenced by your own current goodness alignement, finds/being the target of kills and whatnot. So your plan might have us all sit at 53% town, 47% scum and we still get random lynches just hoping the dice fall our way.

That.

[Merrid]

Ampelas, on 04 November 2014 - 02:22 PM, said:

At this stage I can write off two members of more than likely being scum. With me that is 3 out of 12 people who are more likely town at this point.

Galayn Lord, what did your find say about Serc? We could rule out another one for now, on this day who is scum if he came up town? Or would every player come up town on night 0?

You do realize that someone could be 99% scum but when they finally die can still end up as Town. He is scum in all other realities but in this one he is town. Not likely granted but it's still a possibility.

And I have no idea as to who I put a find or kill on night zero as I'm a replacement player that should have stayed sat out. As to how the probabilities work I need to reread the OP to figure out how the mechanics work.

[Ruse]

Alkend, on 05 November 2014 - 03:58 PM, said:

Serc, on 05 November 2014 - 03:47 PM, said:

I'm still willing to argue with you about it, because you are still wrong.

You want to take flamethrowers to the hundreds of haystacks despite knowing that there won't be needles in most of them, and the ones that are left will be harder to find.

I want to take the time to confirm if there are any needles in the haystacks at all before torching them. It gives us a bigger pool of town to work with later on down the road and is the better option for town by far.

Not really. In normal mafia, most lynches also target town. A CF is still a CF, no matter the amount of realities, and the result is actually a result we're going to be sure about. A dead person is a dead person with a 100% alignment that we can trust. Just like in normal mafia. I've never heard anyone argue that a no-lynch will be good repeatedly in standard mafia and unless your method is going to reduce the game state to, say, 5 different realities really, really quickly, it is a dumb way of playing by foregoing certainty through elimination.

Night kills will also be exceptionally slow unless there's a player at 100% scum who has a full kill: making people scum quicker by increasing the % swings is thus a quicker way of returning to a manageable number of realities. Since everyone has to kill, we will probably all get scummy at a near equal rate, apart from the fact that this rate is probably influenced by your own current goodness alignement, finds/being the target of kills and whatnot. So your plan might have us all sit at 53% town, 47% scum and we still get random lynches just hoping the dice fall our way.

In normal mafia someone is 100% scum at all times. Lynch that person and you are guaranteed a scum result.

Right now, no one is even close to 100% scum. That is the difference. ANYONE you lynch is more likely than not to come up town at the moment. If we could lynch all twelve of us at exactly the same time the likelihood is we would all come up town.

[Galayn Lord]

Serc, on 05 November 2014 - 04:05 PM, said:

You seriously think that is a bad thing? ARE YOU INSANE?

You think if we are all still alive and sitting at 47% chance to be scum isn't FAR FAR FAR better than what you suggest?


I don't think that is what will happen, not even close, but it is the preferable choice to reducing realities through execution when simple observation has better rewards for the majority of us.

You want the game to come down to 3 or 4 people all with a 50/50 shot at being the scum? Really now, that is just the type of thing that Alkend was speaking of earlier; people 'hoping' they'll get scum.

[Merrid]

Galayn Lord, on 04 November 2014 - 11:52 PM, said:

Lizradusa, on 29 October 2014 - 08:07 PM, said:

snip

Current status on all players:
Player - alive - dead -town - scum
1.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
2.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
3.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
4.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
5.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
6.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
7.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
8.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
9.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
10.......100%....0%...85%.....15%
11.......100%....0%...85%.....15%
12.......100%....0%...85%.....15%
13.......100%....0%...85%.....15%

Number of possible realities: 1630

Path-Shaper, on 04 November 2014 - 11:38 AM, said:

Current status on all players:
Player - alive - dead -town - scum
1.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
2.........100%....0%...82%.....18%
3.........100%....0%...85%.....15%
4..........82%...18%...90%.....10%
5..........78%...22%...83%.....17%
6.........100%....0%...82%.....18%
7..........91%....9%...83%.....17%
8..........88%...12%...81%.....19%
9..........92%....8%...82%.....18%
10.......100%....0%...88%.....12%
11.......100%....0%...77%.....23%
12.......100%....0%...79%.....21%
13.........0%...100%..100%.....0%

Number of possible realities: 773

The death of one person had a major effect on the number of possible realities. This effect will decline as the bodies pile up (I think). In my opinion, we should definitely lynch today to reduce that number again.

Since we really don't have anything to go on I say we go low poster. Merrid and Meanas have one each.

Vote Merrid

Gee thanks, Lynch the replacement player. Might not be a bad idea. I'm not in a very good position to participate. But I think I saw someone mention voting for night to help whittle down the total number of possibilities. I kinda like that idea as I'm most likely town that would benefit town so therefore I will go with that option

vote night

[Serc]

Galayn Lord, on 05 November 2014 - 04:10 PM, said:

Serc, on 05 November 2014 - 04:05 PM, said:

You seriously think that is a bad thing? ARE YOU INSANE?

You think if we are all still alive and sitting at 47% chance to be scum isn't FAR FAR FAR better than what you suggest?


I don't think that is what will happen, not even close, but it is the preferable choice to reducing realities through execution when simple observation has better rewards for the majority of us.

You want the game to come down to 3 or 4 people all with a 50/50 shot at being the scum? Really now, that is just the type of thing that Alkend was speaking of earlier; people 'hoping' they'll get scum.

Who on earth said anything about only have 3-4 people alive when it gets to that point. Even in his example he makes no mention of it, that example supposes that most of us remain alive.