[Bendal Home]

Nimander Golit, on 18 September 2014 - 12:00 AM, said:

I'd lynch Jalan anyway. He's the only person I know for a fact isn't in my faction.


Vote Jalan


Unless someone can think of something better. Yes, I have suspicions of the likes of Emur and Hentos and Iparth, but Jalan is the only one who right now amounts to more than a suspicion.

I think we should discuss game mechanics or, more specifically, cult mechanics, before we rush into another voting train, as I that's only beneficial for the cult.

I'll start, but I have to write it down first.

[Emurlahn]

Going to be unavailable for most of the day. Tempted to vote Jalan immediately since it looks like tonight is his kill night, but will let people get on and talk about it first.

[Bendal Home]

Okay, my time was cut a bit short, so the last part is a bit chaotic. However, I do think anyone should be able to work it out for themselves.

The central thesis is: The only faction that really benefits from any lynch on a non-cultist is the cultist faction. Even a lynch on the austrian/german faction would not be that beneficial for IN and vice versa.


---



The pivotal mechanic is the inheritance mechanism for the cult recruiter.

When Lock, the Hope of Noblesse, was lynched on day 2, he carried with him a yet unsigned treaty (see story line), indicating that he was in for recruitment, but failed to do so before his death. Without signees, if Lock was the only cultist, the cult should have died with him. Instead, as indicated by Fanderay's CF, it did not die, it is very much alive. So what's happening here; to who has Lock passed the buck and, more importantly, how?

While Lock's treaty was yet to be signed, that does not mean he was the only one starting out as cultist. He could have had a co-conspirator (but why didn't he sign the treaty?), who was either a non-roled cultist acting as heir (possibility A) or a secondary recruiter with a personal copy of the treaty (the absence of signees on Lock's treaty would then only indicate that Lock did not recruit anyone) (possibility . Another possibility is an inheritance mechanic that ensures the survival of the cult if the original recruiter failed to recruit someone before his death (possibility C). (Feel free to add your scenario to this list.)

If we're dealing with situation A, then we must ask ourselves if the inheritance is strong (i.e., every time the master dies, an apprentice inherits his powers) or weak (the original heir was the only one capable of inheriting Lock's powers to unite). If it is strong, then going after a non-cultist basically guarantees cult victory: We can weed out only some many, if we lynch the only suspected non-cult killer "so many" means "precisely one", cultists per night, but they keep popping up like wild fire, even if recruitment is only every other night (Lock did not recruit during night one). Every day we "waste" on non-cultists, whether we are IN or german/austians, increases the victory probability of the cult significantly.

If we're dealing with B, the second recruiter possibility, then the scenario for non-cultists is a bit better. While a delay in finding him would mean a larger cult in the long run, as soon as he gets lynched cult size stabilizes and they must fight as a regular faction. However, delay cult hunting for too long and the other factions are guaranteed to get overrun by cultists.

The best case scenario is scenario C, as it's the same as B, but with one cultist less, securing in the long, maybe, another day before cult is victorious.

However, going after anyone outside of the cult faction means increasing the cult to non-cult ratio significantly. The cult gains a 0.5 a member per night, assuming recruiting every other night, the non-cult factions together lose 1.5 members (one lynch, 0.5 is recruiter per night). So, for both the Austians/Germans and the IN, the best thing to do is to go after the cult, culling it and then go after each other. The other way around only ensures a growing cult dominance.

So, as a non-cultist, I do not fear Jalan, he's go another shot at hitting the cult and he would be stupid not pointing his NK there.

[Bendal Home]

That smiley should have read possibility B followed by a closing parenthesis.

[Nimander Golit]

Remove Vote


Fine, Mr PhD. But none of that actually points me in the direction of a cultist. It's all well and good, but if we have no real idea who might be cult, then it's also all so much hot air.

[Bendal Home]

Nimander Golit, on 18 September 2014 - 10:03 AM, said:

Remove Vote


Fine, Mr PhD. But none of that actually points me in the direction of a cultist. It's all well and good, but if we have no real idea who might be cult, then it's also all so much hot air.

Yesterday people were hinting at their suspicion of some people being cult, such as the Fanderay/Iparth connection. Someone even hinted we should ask Jalan to tarket Iparth.

So, again, that's where I would go.

Vote Iparth

[Iparth Erule]

Bendal Home, on 18 September 2014 - 10:06 AM, said:

Nimander Golit, on 18 September 2014 - 10:03 AM, said:

Remove Vote


Fine, Mr PhD. But none of that actually points me in the direction of a cultist. It's all well and good, but if we have no real idea who might be cult, then it's also all so much hot air.

Yesterday people were hinting at their suspicion of some people being cult, such as the Fanderay/Iparth connection. Someone even hinted we should ask Jalan to tarket Iparth.

So, again, that's where I would go.

Vote Iparth

Some people saying something doesn't make it true, even if I was trying to distance from Fanderay (which I wasn't) that was before he was recruited. You have to look elsewhere. I myself suspect Dejim Nebrahal but I have to take a look at him to see whether there is anything to it or if it's just gut.

[Path-Shaper]

Jalan is dead. He was Dorus von Wittgenstein, a proud general of das Eisen Reich.

The Kaiser's dreamed of two-pronged assault on Noblesse came to an end with Heinrich von Graben's death, but the other prong didn't fare much better. A prime fault for its failure was its composition. Franz Josef had declined to send in one of his standing armies from the east, and had instead elected to form a new force. Foremost on his mind was the ability of the army to integrate with the Noblesse elite, and he had called up the retinues of the cultured nobility of the prosperous river castles of the western area of the empire, often led by second and third sons without military experience. It might have been a force marching under the black and gold pennants of the Empire, but in stark contrast with the regular armies, it was clearly more gold than black.

At its head, he placed a much decorated career soldier who had climbed the ranks from corporal onwards. From the beginning, Dorus von Wittgenstein and the young nobles on his staff had clashed. As a result, the one handed general withdrew from meetings and sent out written commands, which were mocked for the pen skills and insufficient grasp of spelling they displayed, instead of studied for the sense they made. Von Wittgenstein retreated to his carriage, penning orders, the campaign log and letters to the Kaiser to voice his situation. It was only a matter of time before the force ran into serious opposition.

The lieutenant commanding the scouting parties had stopped to flirt with an inkeepers daughter, never noticing the army creeping up on the columns of soldiers. The screening cavalry galloped off after a small force of mounted skirmishers they could never catch without sending word back.

The result was that the columns of soldiers walked into an enfillade of cannonfire, crossbow bolts and small arms fire. Minutes after the opening salvo heavy cavalry charged. Retinues rallied to their individual lords, destroying any cohesion that was left. The nobles themselves did one of three things: charge, flee, or stand paralyzed. A young baron with the rank of ensign trying to rally soldiers was overruled by a count's son of lower rank but better blood who wanted to charge, leading the collapse of a pike square.

When Kantonian pikemen marched up and trampled what resistance was left, the battle was already lost. Von Wittgenstein was captured and died of trauma soon after.

This was a modkill on request.

[Nimander Golit]

Huh.

I know that Jalan's been threatening for a day or more that they'll modkill themselves, but I really don't get why.

[Dejim Nebrahl]

Nimander Golit, on 18 September 2014 - 11:52 AM, said:

Huh.

I know that Jalan's been threatening for a day or more that they'll modkill themselves, but I really don't get why.

Better question: does this mean there were only two people in the German faction??

[Dejim Nebrahl]

Day 1 - Gait is lynched. He was Alfeo de Montferrat, Barone de Montferrat, a proud Noblesse noble.
Night 1 - no NK

Day 2 - Lock is lynched. He was Iacopo di Vicire, the Hope of Noblesse, proud signee of the Treaty of Rosetta.
Night 2 - Cast is NK. He was Carlito, Barrone de la Loggia, a proud Noblesse noble

Day 3 - no lynch

Fanderay reveals he was recruited on night 2.

Night 3 - Okaros is NK. He was Agnes, Contesse de Zimella, a proud Noblesse noble


Day 4 - Fanderay is lynched. He was Heinrich, former Kürfürst von Graben, proud signee of the Rosetta Treaty
Night 4 - no NK. Presumably because Jalan didn't put a provisional in.

Day 5 - Jalan modkill He was Dorus von Wittgenstein, a proud general of das Eisen Reich.

[Dejim Nebrahl]

Bendal Home, on 18 September 2014 - 07:38 AM, said:

The pivotal mechanic is the inheritance mechanism for the cult recruiter.

When Lock, the Hope of Noblesse, was lynched on day 2, he carried with him a yet unsigned treaty (see story line), indicating that he was in for recruitment, but failed to do so before his death. Without signees, if Lock was the only cultist, the cult should have died with him. Instead, as indicated by Fanderay's CF, it did not die, it is very much alive. So what's happening here; to who has Lock passed the buck and, more importantly, how?

While Lock's treaty was yet to be signed, that does not mean he was the only one starting out as cultist. He could have had a co-conspirator (but why didn't he sign the treaty?), who was either a non-roled cultist acting as heir (possibility A) or a secondary recruiter with a personal copy of the treaty (the absence of signees on Lock's treaty would then only indicate that Lock did not recruit anyone) (possibility . Another possibility is an inheritance mechanic that ensures the survival of the cult if the original recruiter failed to recruit someone before his death (possibility C). (Feel free to add your scenario to this list.)

If we're dealing with situation A, then we must ask ourselves if the inheritance is strong (i.e., every time the master dies, an apprentice inherits his powers) or weak (the original heir was the only one capable of inheriting Lock's powers to unite). If it is strong, then going after a non-cultist basically guarantees cult victory: We can weed out only some many, if we lynch the only suspected non-cult killer "so many" means "precisely one", cultists per night, but they keep popping up like wild fire, even if recruitment is only every other night (Lock did not recruit during night one). Every day we "waste" on non-cultists, whether we are IN or german/austians, increases the victory probability of the cult significantly.

If we're dealing with B, the second recruiter possibility, then the scenario for non-cultists is a bit better. While a delay in finding him would mean a larger cult in the long run, as soon as he gets lynched cult size stabilizes and they must fight as a regular faction. However, delay cult hunting for too long and the other factions are guaranteed to get overrun by cultists.

The best case scenario is scenario C, as it's the same as B, but with one cultist less, securing in the long, maybe, another day before cult is victorious.

However, going after anyone outside of the cult faction means increasing the cult to non-cult ratio significantly. The cult gains a 0.5 a member per night, assuming recruiting every other night, the non-cult factions together lose 1.5 members (one lynch, 0.5 is recruiter per night). So, for both the Austians/Germans and the IN, the best thing to do is to go after the cult, culling it and then go after each other. The other way around only ensures a growing cult dominance.

So, as a non-cultist, I do not fear Jalan, he's go another shot at hitting the cult and he would be stupid not pointing his NK there.

What we know or can be reasonably certain of with regards to the cult:

Lock was the founder. Treaty of Rosetta. He was a banker/merchant whose family controlled the Rosetta City-State.

Lock died day 2.

Fanderay was recruited night 2. I put this as reliable because Jalan was NOT a recruit and verified the timing of the breaking off of their off thread comms.

There is a second recruiter. The person who recruited Fanderay on night 2.

Conjecture:

Path-Shaper, on 15 September 2014 - 08:05 PM, said:

....Now Iacopo felt it was time to act, and he had travelled to the mercenary markets, collecting regiments and using the opportunity to canvass nobles, captains and likely allies and opponents. Unfortunately, on his way back to Rosetta, he was ambushed and none of his party escaped.

Iacopo's dreams of a united Noblesse lay in the dirt, and his grand treaty of Rosetta was nothing but a crumpled document without a single signature.

That Lock scene almost implies that Lock's recruitment mechanism was a day action.


So we have indirect proof that somebody has a recruit mechanism as a night action which they used on Fanderay night 2.

[Anthras]

Or, you know, maybe Lock wasn't the Rosetta recruiter. Just saying...

[Dejim Nebrahl]

Recruitment:
Day (or night) 1: Lock recruits person Z.


Day 2: Lock is lynched with no signature on his copy of the Treaty. So no recruit.

Night 2: Person? recruits Fanderay as a night action. This may or may not have been PersonZ.

Day/night 3:

Day/night 4:



We've had 2 day/night cycles for further recruitment. As Bendal said, the inheritance is key here. But fuck if I know where to go from here on that subject.

[Dejim Nebrahl]

Anthras, on 18 September 2014 - 02:25 PM, said:

Or, you know, maybe Lock wasn't the Rosetta recruiter. Just saying...

Evidence?

[Dejim Nebrahl]

Factions we know exist:

Independent Nobility. Gait, Cast, Okaros

Germans of Das Eisen Reich either as part of the Austrian Empire or as mercenaries hired by the Empire. Fanderay and Jalan.

Rosetta Treaty. Lock, Fanderay, and PersonZ.


Factions that have been revealed in blurbs but may or may not be part of this particular game:


Twice Crowned King,
the Doge of D'Arsenale,
the Mercatore lords,
or even the Di Vicires Tapper list this family seperately but my SWAG would be that they are part of the Mercatore faction.

[Dejim Nebrahl]

Dejim Nebrahl, on 18 September 2014 - 02:13 PM, said:

So we have indirect proof that somebody has a recruit mechanism as a night action which they used on Fanderay night 2.

Hmm. Fanderay's death scene complicates this somewhat:

Path-Shaper, on 17 September 2014 - 07:34 PM, said:

Only later were the rumours put together. Heinrich had been visited by Iacopo di Vicire. Di Vicire had offered him half of what Emperor Franz Josef wanted: a united Noblesse, allied to the Empire instead of being subservient. Heinrich had listened, and wrote both to the Kaiser and to his family.

Flavour? or was Fanderay lying about when he was recruited. If he was lying, why did Jalan verify Fanderay's timing?

[Nimander Golit]

Dejim Nebrahl, on 18 September 2014 - 02:41 PM, said:

Factions we know exist:

Independent Nobility. Gait, Cast, Okaros

Germans of Das Eisen Reich either as part of the Austrian Empire or as mercenaries hired by the Empire. Fanderay and Jalan.

Rosetta Treaty. Lock, Fanderay, and PersonZ.


Factions that have been revealed in blurbs but may or may not be part of this particular game:


Twice Crowned King,
the Doge of D'Arsenale,
the Mercatore lords,
or even the Di Vicires Tapper list this family seperately but my SWAG would be that they are part of the Mercatore faction.

You've missed out the Kanton thingummies, who seem to be mentioned in practically every scene.

If we're going with historical reality parallels, they sounds like Swiss mercenaries to me (Kanton = cantons of Switzerland. Swiss pikemen were famous for their military prowess).

[Nimander Golit]

Skim-reading through, I'd currently vote either Iparth or Anthras as possible cult people. Both have suspected links to Fanderay (Iparth had a constant to and fro with them which rang somewhat false - though as Iparth himself points out this began before Fanderay's recruitment. Doesn't mean that it wasn't Iparth who subsequently did the recruiting, however. While Anthras had that refusal to vote for Fanderay a while ago).

[Anthras]

Dejim Nebrahl, on 18 September 2014 - 02:27 PM, said:

Anthras, on 18 September 2014 - 02:25 PM, said:

Or, you know, maybe Lock wasn't the Rosetta recruiter. Just saying...

Evidence?

The recruiting of Fanderay on Night 2 of course.