[Path-Shaper]

I'm likely to be asleep when they get a lynch, assuming they don't let it run and run.

Lynch post below - please copy from reply pane to get the sources in. Also if they swing or Kilava Hubb changes their mind there will be changes to be made...

Path-Shaper, on 10 July 2014 - 08:02 AM, said:

It is Day 3. At the time of the lynch there was XXX hours and YYY minutes remaining

7 Players still alive: Ay Estos, Bendal Home, Dejim Nebrahl, Hentos Ilm, Kilava, Okral Lom, Ryllandaras

4 votes to lynch, 4 votes to go to night.


Players not voted: Ay Estos, Bendal Home, Dejim Nebrahl, Hentos Ilm, Kilava, Okral Lom, Ryllandaras

<set for BH, swap with variety and photo from role PM if swing happens>

Bendal Home has been lynched. He was:

King Edward, Scum



and Khellendros


<if no NK happens (HI's BP) delete the below>

XXXXXX has been killed. He was:

VARIETY

PHOTO FROM PM URL

and NAME

<BUT INCLUDE THIS >

Usual start for D4, start it ASAP. Any questions on weekend freeze I was planning on Friday around midnight UK time - when I get back from the pub. Freeze takes place, votes counted still etc etc

This post has been edited by Path-Shaper: 10 July 2014 - 10:47 PM

[Brujah]

At least EM has figured that backing Bendal by revealing guard would be bad.

Still, when Gnaw doesn't die tonight, GH might have a shot at claiming healer, which would mean there was not likely a finder, and potentially get Gnaw lynched due to WIFOM. So unless he finds Kilava tonight, tomor should be interesting. Town should be able to win this one, but that doesn't mean they can/will.

Tatts, Gnaw, and ST have what they need to narrow it down to Kilava or Ay, with Okral found inno. But they might worry that Hentos is symp and Okral is killer come tomor when Gnaw isn't dead. GH could push this with his healer reveal, especially since he coded it. If Gnaw doesn't find kilava, hopefully he finds Rhyll. So tomor at least he'll know Rhyll is symp at worse, but not killer, leaving it either kilava or ay estos.

Summary, towns game to win with gnaw using last find wisely(not picking dejim. Easier for town to assume dejim is town instead of Ryll.). Scum wins by turning it against gnaw.

[Path-Shaper]

Ay Estos, on 10 July 2014 - 10:54 PM, said:

Just for the record, I decided on my course of action assuming that the mafia crowd in Malazan Mafia have a higher above average intelligence and will be aware of how impossible it is for BH's reveal to be true.
Of course, it might just be a matter of POV.

Averrrr... aveerrrrrrraaa..... avvvvv... duuuur, wut?

[Path-Shaper]

Someone hammer so I can go to bed and actually get some sleep goddammit.

[Brujah]

ST is saying Kilava can't be the other kicker because of the early distancing. Doesn't ST realize this is a bad move on town. It's the exact same thing Shin did for Unfound last game. Plus, after Venge and I distanced so much in the previous game, town should be wary of this. This could be what costs them the game.

They'll either want to lynch ST for his antics, or he'll convince them to lynch Tatts.

[Path-Shaper]

Brujah, on 11 July 2014 - 12:25 AM, said:

ST is saying Kilava can't be the other kicker because of the early distancing. Doesn't ST realize this is a bad move on town. It's the exact same thing Shin did for Unfound last game. Plus, after Venge and I distanced so much in the previous game, town should be wary of this. This could be what costs them the game.

They'll either want to lynch ST for his antics, or he'll convince them to lynch Tatts.

Indeed, I don't think people really have their head round how scum with no off-thread comms works; you both have the same agenda, you don't waste time with idle chatter and establishing kill lists you draw up your own and get on with it - you know you won't be sure of their agenda but you do your damnest to keep town guessing. A game like this is a good example of how scum can totally blindside town because town is expecting lover killers so delayed on-thread interactions. Town shouldn't go expecting that any more than they expect town to have lovers every game.

[Path-Shaper]

ST

Ryllandaras, on 10 July 2014 - 11:39 PM, said:

OK, tomorrow is going to be interesting. HI is probably going to draw the NK, leaving us with AE, DN, Kilava, OL and myself. Assuming all the results at end of day go as expected, that means we can depend on OL being town (sidenote: if HI doesn't draw the NK, might have to take a long look at lynching OL, since if HI is a symp OL is almost certainly his master). That leaves:

AE - my nose was twitching from the beginning with the newbie act he was putting on. Has stayed aloof after drawing some heat at the start.
DN - his tactic has been to put up an impressive looking case and then sit tight. Has meant he has avoided much attention so far. Started to get some today but may need to push that angle tomorrow.
Kilava - Genius distancing between him and BH if true. I don't really believe it though.

A lot depends on who comes out swinging tomorrow morning. Scum could either try and push the "kill off the symp, buy another day" approach or go with the "wait until someone puts a vote down wrong and then pounce" style. Got to keep reminding myself to look for people who are trying as hard as they can to contain their over-eagerness to post.

Of course, all this assumes that it's actually D-Day today - if it was just the killer pair, we've actually got a bit of breathing room. I would expect if there was a symp in play that town would probably have one more role on their side (though that might have been lost to DEATH by now). But there isn't really a role that fits well alongside finder - if you put a guard or healer in that's too strong, and I've seen no evidence of lovers...

ST

Ryllandaras, on 11 July 2014 - 12:58 AM, said:

Hmm, just realised that it might count against me that I never actually voted for BH. On the other hand, I've probably got enough to WIFOM that away - why wouldn't a scum player distance themselves when it was clear which way the wind was blowing?

ST

Ryllandaras, on 11 July 2014 - 12:59 AM, said:

Gah, did you give us a healer to go with a finder? That's a bit OP isn't it?

ST

EM:

Ay Estos, on 11 July 2014 - 12:59 AM, said:

No NK? really?whose idea was this? I want to rant but I'm not, because I'm quite sure they had a logical reason for that. pretty sure. Did Kilava really think the game was going to be over?

The BP seems to be confusing both sides

[Brujah]

R.I.P. Khell!


First thing's first, Khell's the realist (and the illest)
Killin' 'em and let the whole thread feel it (let them feel it)
He dead, but GH still in the Murda Bizness

Khell's so Fancy
We already know
Best Mafioso
From Middle Earth to Tokyo
Khell's so Fancy
All his posts are gold
Remember his name
Khell-En-D-Ros

[Path-Shaper]

Suprisingly bad call by Gust there to claim healer - he knows his kill didn't go through so knows there was interference from either Guard, Healer or BP. All of which could jump on thread to counteract his claim.

[Brujah]

Funny if gnaws BP ends up costing him his credibility. GH coding healer works out here well now. He couldn't have known the finder would reveal then have a BP, but this should feel like a gift on a platter for GH. He can claim healer, say gnaw threw partner under bus, or is the symp and Okral is his master.

It would be hard who to believe in this case, but not sure why gnaw isn't saying directly he had a BP. GH says he healed Hentos, people can buy this. Gnaw claims GH is lying because he conveniently has a BP to prove it. Really tough scenario.

They will probably want to be safe and believe them both, thus going for Denim or Ryll. Then scum wins as long as GH doesn't kill Ay Estos. He would probably leave Gnaw and Okral alive for WIFOM, so probably kill Dejim, and win game.

[Brujah]

Path-Shaper, on 11 July 2014 - 01:15 AM, said:

Suprisingly bad call by Gust there to claim healer - he knows his kill didn't go through so knows there was interference from either Guard, Healer or BP. All of which could jump on thread to counteract his claim.

I think it's a worthy gamble and best play. It might work. He and EM will back it. ST already wants to PI kilava. So if Tatts or Okral joins them its game.

This post has been edited by Brujah: 11 July 2014 - 01:34 AM

[Khellendros]

Path-Shaper, on 10 July 2014 - 10:16 PM, said:

Inane Babble, on 10 July 2014 - 10:08 PM, said:

Path-Shaper, on 10 July 2014 - 09:52 PM, said:

Fhpvlf or Fujalf if you discount I, a etc. I don't see it Khell, I hope someone else checks...

Almost positive he's just given up now and it messing around, one look at that code and you can just tell it's a piss take on the one me and HO used last game.

Indeed, 19 back just to screw with people - move it 7 forward instead...

I wouldn't discount the possibility he started it with the f on the chance no-one bothered to go any further

Lol, I was hoping someone would try checking but I thought it would be Tatts And yes, I did start with f so that Tatts would then keep on checking

Brujah, on 11 July 2014 - 01:13 AM, said:

R.I.P. Khell!


First thing's first, Khell's the realist (and the illest)
Killin' 'em and let the whole thread feel it (let them feel it)
He dead, but GH still in the Murda Bizness

Khell's so Fancy
We already know
Best Mafioso
From Middle Earth to Tokyo
Khell's so Fancy
All his posts are gold
Remember his name
Khell-En-D-Ros

Why thanks Bru, that's lovely. I feel inspired. Send me back in the game so I can kick ass PS!

I'm disappointed that neither Gust nor EM caught on to my idea - reveal guard, but then say you DIDN'T guard me. That's what I was going for as I said in the PMs. Convoluted maybe, but awesome when/if it works out.

Of course, I had no idea Hentos had a BP


Surprising plan for Gust to reveal - almost like he forgot he wasn't an actual healer for a while there lol - but we'll see how it works out. I don't have high hopes but i have fingers crossed. With the symp PIed by Hentos, they could have manipulated a lynch of Dejim or Ryll between them.

[Khellendros]

Oh, and I have to mention, great instincts by Shin.


And Tatts made a case earlier with me and Kilava partners which was pretty much spot on - almost convinced me that Ryll was our symp lol. So great work there, now he just has to remember it!


Town have played better this game - though having a finder helped slightly I didn't play great, but hats off to town overall.

[Path-Shaper]

Ryllandaras, on 11 July 2014 - 09:24 AM, said:

So in a hypothetical situation in which a player with a BP is simultaneously targeted by a kill and a heal, what happens? Is the BP used up in preference to the heal? Or does the heal happen first?

ST is fishing for information, what do people think to give as a response? There is of course no healer so I don't have a resolution order set up. I don't know myself what would happen should a BP be hit but the alt also receive a heal.

[Inane Babble]

I'm sure someone knows the night resolution order better than me, and I can't seem to locate it through the 101 threads, but IMO even if we do find it, you should just tell him you aren't saying anything conclusive while the game is ongoing.

[Khellendros]

Normal order would be heal first, so the BP wouldn't be used up.


But yeah, it's tricky. Tell ST that he's an experienced player and therefore clearly knows the resolution order in an M&P game.


Edit: Or just tell him the truth. Heal would be first in such a situation. That's not revealing anything about what's happened in the game, just saying what would happen in such a hypothetical situation.

This post has been edited by Khellendros: 11 July 2014 - 12:35 PM

[Vengeance]

Path-Shaper, on 11 July 2014 - 09:40 AM, said:

Ryllandaras, on 11 July 2014 - 09:24 AM, said:

So in a hypothetical situation in which a player with a BP is simultaneously targeted by a kill and a heal, what happens? Is the BP used up in preference to the heal? Or does the heal happen first?

ST is fishing for information, what do people think to give as a response? There is of course no healer so I don't have a resolution order set up. I don't know myself what would happen should a BP be hit but the alt also receive a heal.

Guard - > Heal - > BP - > Kill

[Vengeance]

Noob. BP's aren't exotic we have just moved away from them recently. They used to be the rule rather then the exception.

Dejim Nebrahl, on 11 July 2014 - 11:34 AM, said:

He revealed before Hentos revealed BP, how could Kilava have known Hentos had one? As you say, it is unusual, exotic even.

[Khellendros]

I really don't know why Gusty revealed healer. He and EM could have swung the lynch to Dejim or Ryllandaras today. Kilava has that distancing between me and him to fall back on. The one hope for Gusty is that he revealed before Gnaw revealed his BP - which just makes no sense for a lying killer to do (but that is what he did, heh).


Speaking of, ST has been unusually off this game - maybe all those early deaths in recent games have made him rusty. Of the two, Tatts is talking far more sense (and to be fair to him, has done so all game).

[Khellendros]

Also,

Denesmet, on 10 July 2014 - 02:36 AM, said:

Going to start my readup now, but before I do I first took a look and thought I would post this:

Quote

Bendal Home 21 Rikkter 19 Ay Estos 18 Denesmet 17

If we try out Sir Thursday's theory of scum either trying (or more likely subconciously) posting in the middle of the pack, we should find a killer here somewhere. And yes, I included myself because someone will bitch "well that applies to YOU" if I don't.

Sir Thursday's theory? SIR THURSDAY'S THEORY?!?!