[Tattersail_]

HoosierDaddy, on 29 July 2014 - 01:58 PM, said:

No more advice.

It's not a bad thing talking about it on here, especially for us Europeans

[Vengeance]

Tattersail_, on 29 July 2014 - 01:58 PM, said:

I have 2 scenarios running through my head right now, I don't know the players, but I do have a 2 fantasy seasons I have been in. I know sort of what to look for.

Your not a rookie any more kid. Just remember it is never to early to take a kicker and you'll be fine.

[Tapper]

Tattersail_, on 29 July 2014 - 01:53 PM, said:

HoosierDaddy, on 29 July 2014 - 01:52 PM, said:

You're not going to do badly in the first 10 or so, Tatts. It's a matter of judgment. However, outside the first few rounds, never let Yahoo judge for you.

Yeah, you see year on year that their "predicted" rankings go tits up.

Most rankings do, but it is also about the margin by which they're wrong.
Since we use a custom scoring system (on defense and for some penalties mostly), I doubt there's a site out there that will match our league 1-on-1.
If you want to look at consensus predictions for fantasy, check multiple sites for their predictions and try and develop a common line to see who's consistently named above whom. Fantasy football is a huge industry and while a lot of sites have payment walls, most supply stuff for free to attract customers.

ESPN has some free stuff, www.sbnation.com/fantasy is entirely free, bleacherreport and most of the fantasy football sites do, too (those might be somewhat outdated though, because of the paywall). Some have positional rankings, but no points. Anyway, if you put all those together, you get a bit more of a picture of the consensus.

If you have two players of the same level, then I usually take a peek at http://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl. It is a great stat tool to see trends in (established) player development to judge for yourself if a guy is improving or regressing. You can select over multiple years at a bewildering variety of stats, but since fantasy points are roughly built through

Average points in a given game = ([amount of throws/rushes/catches per game] * [yards per throw/rush/catch]) + [touch downs] - [fumbles/fumbles lost/interceptions]

it is relatively easy to make a table to compare players of whom you're uncertain to see how they trend through time.

[Tapper]

Vengeance, on 29 July 2014 - 02:38 PM, said:

Tattersail_, on 29 July 2014 - 01:58 PM, said:

I have 2 scenarios running through my head right now, I don't know the players, but I do have a 2 fantasy seasons I have been in. I know sort of what to look for.

Your not a rookie any more kid. Just remember it is never to early to take a kicker and you'll be fine.

Don't forget the defense. I feel this is a break-out year for the Cowboys.

[Tattersail_]

Venge, are you pissed you're going to miss out on Manning?

[Tapper]

Tattersail_, on 29 July 2014 - 02:52 PM, said:

Venge, are you pissed you're going to miss out on Manning?

I did a few mock drafts and so far, Manning never fell to 8.
I think once only to 7, and Obdi's been drafting a QB the past few years in round 1, so I doubt Manning would fall past him

[Tattersail_]

Tapper, on 29 July 2014 - 02:58 PM, said:

Tattersail_, on 29 July 2014 - 02:52 PM, said:

Venge, are you pissed you're going to miss out on Manning?

I did a few mock drafts and so far, Manning never fell to 8.
I think once only to 7, and Obdi's been drafting a QB the past few years in round 1, so I doubt Manning would fall past him

Yeah, last year Venge grabbed him early, which surprised a few people.

I have picks 23 and 26 and I could go for 2 quarter backs just to shock people too.

[Brujah]

Cant believe so slow. Figured everyone would be gung ho about the first couple rounds.

This post has been edited by Brujah: 29 July 2014 - 03:24 PM

[Tattersail_]

32 teams in NFL, that is a choice of 32 QB's guaranteed to start.

Out of the RB's there are 2 a team? Main starters? One may get the ball more often than the other but that is still 64 to choose from.

Same with WR's. So in theory everyone in this thread should be able to choose from a starting QB, starting RB's and starting WR's?

That's right isn't it?

[Tattersail_]

So if I ask a genuine question like, who are the main starting RB's for Panthers you'd answer me?

Spoiler

would it be Williams and Stewart?

If so ^ what makes them less ranked than say..

Spiller and Jackson from the Bills?

[Brujah]

HoosierDaddy, on 29 July 2014 - 01:54 PM, said:

I'd have taken McCoy #1 overall, so you picked well.

Yeah, it was tough to decide between Charles, McCoy, and Peterson. I don't care what anyone says, no one can say with confidence which of those 3 will be better in the long run. You even can add Forte into the decision.

I would have taken Charles, McCoy, or Peterson even if it was random, but I just feel like betting on Teddy Bridgewater being a semi decent passer and the vikings improving enough that Peterson MIGHT have another record season. It's just a gamble really. They're suppose to be including Peterson in the passing game more this year, which is what they did with Charles last year, and we see how well that turned out.

I'm worried Charles might not maintain his record setting pace, and that McCoy might lose some goal line touches to Sproles. But the same could be said for Peterson. Last year his production went down and he might not get back up.

The rankings I use had Peterson 4th behind Charles, McCoy, and forte, in that order. But I went with him anyway.
But McCoy is a stellar pick, Tatts. He might have his best season ever this year.

[Brujah]

Tattersail_, on 29 July 2014 - 03:18 PM, said:

So if I ask a genuine question like, who are the main starting RB's for Panthers you'd answer me?

Spoiler

would it be Williams and Stewart?

If so ^ what makes them less ranked than say..

Spiller and Jackson from the Bills?

There's a page on the fantasy website that will tell you the starters for all the teams.

[Tattersail_]

Just looking at top ranked players and the sides they are in, the teams with the best players are;

Atlanta
Chicago
Dallas
Denver
Detroit
Green Bay
New England

Based on the teams with 5 or more players in the top one rankings.

It's crazy how, Oakland, for example, only have one player in the top 100 (Maurice Jones Drew).

Does that mean not many people will be picking Oakland players?

[Tattersail_]

Brujah, on 29 July 2014 - 03:23 PM, said:

Tattersail_, on 29 July 2014 - 03:18 PM, said:

So if I ask a genuine question like, who are the main starting RB's for Panthers you'd answer me?

Spoiler

would it be Williams and Stewart?

If so ^ what makes them less ranked than say..

Spiller and Jackson from the Bills?

There's a page on the fantasy website that will tell you the starters for all the teams.

Can you send me the link please and I will bookmark it

[Tapper]

Obdi on the clock unless HD wants to get away from Manning?

[Tapper]

KL and Venge have my picks, BTW, as I don't know if I will be around when SB gets on.

[Vengeance]

Tattersail_, on 29 July 2014 - 02:52 PM, said:

Venge, are you pissed you're going to miss out on Manning?

Why would I be pissed? I had him last year when he threw for 55 tds. I doubt that he will throw for that many again. There is no one player who at this point in time I am going to regret missing or getting. I just take what is available to take.

[Tattersail_]

Vengeance, on 29 July 2014 - 04:24 PM, said:

Tattersail_, on 29 July 2014 - 02:52 PM, said:

Venge, are you pissed you're going to miss out on Manning?

Why would I be pissed? I had him last year when he threw for 55 tds. I doubt that he will throw for that many again. There is no one player who at this point in time I am going to regret missing or getting. I just take what is available to take.

Have you got your system perfected yet?

[Vengeance]

Tattersail_, on 29 July 2014 - 04:33 PM, said:

Vengeance, on 29 July 2014 - 04:24 PM, said:

Tattersail_, on 29 July 2014 - 02:52 PM, said:

Venge, are you pissed you're going to miss out on Manning?

Why would I be pissed? I had him last year when he threw for 55 tds. I doubt that he will throw for that many again. There is no one player who at this point in time I am going to regret missing or getting. I just take what is available to take.

Have you got your system perfected yet?

Never. It is a mathematical formula based on anticipating actions that haven't happened yet utilizing projected data based off of historical performance and deviation. It can never be perfected.

[Tapper]

I am curious if Kelly's tactical "innovations" (they are new-ish for the NFL) ave an impact on your calculations?