All right, here are all my thoughts on the GL/Denul/lynch/(Barghy,Nimander,Ampelas defending GL) situation.
DISCLAIMER: some of this is speculation, some of it is based on logic, some on evidence, but it's a lot of my own thought process, mixed in with some gut too. Take what you will from it. It's not a case, just a statement of what I've seen.
On GL himself: looking back on GL's actions throughout the game, I'm not particularly convinced either way as to his alignment. The problem with this is it really muddies up the thread. I agree with Denul in the fact that we need to lynch him to clear up the thread so we can see the game more clearly tomorrow.
On the defense of GL: This is a lot more suspicious to me. I'll start with Nimander's continuous defense of GL:
This is the first time that Nimander tries to stall a lynch on GL. Of course, it turns out that either way there wouldn't have been a lynch, but in the moment there's no way to know that. And without knowing whether or not someone else could show up to vote GL after Nimander could've, putting GL at L-1, where Nimander's refusal to switch away from the person who was, in fact, contributing the most to the thread (imo). The only other person who had their vote on Pallid at the end of the day was Ampelas.
Nimander Golit, on 19 June 2014 - 02:02 AM, said:
Its looking like a trademark Malazan Mafia no lynch for Day 1. As of right now I see no reason to vote away from Pallid. Specially after yet another vote hop
The next day, this is his opinion on how he'll vote:
Nimander Golit, on 20 June 2014 - 03:22 PM, said:
Like I said, I'll vote GL if it's necessary for the lynch, but I'd just as soon not vote for him. The case against him is a load of shit, as far as I am concerned. You're all just latching on to the easy lynch for no good reason.
The two problems I have with this are 1) that with GL at L-1, and Kaschan at L-2, he stayed on Kaschan, not switching as he said he would. The second problem is that whether or not the GL case was actually a load of shit, the Kaschan one was based off of a single post that Kaschan said he wrote while half asleep. The Kaschan case was a load of shit as well.
And now today, again, Nimander doesn't want to vote GL, instead saying that he'll likely vote Denul, the one pushing for a GL lynch. What this seems to show to me is that there is some ulterior motive to Nimander trying to keep GL alive. And since Gl
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Moving on to Ampelas:
I already posted some of my position on Ampelas, about his list, and how he voted Pallid day one, and it stayed like that for the rest of the day. Besides laying relatively low in general, the main things Ampelas has gotten worked up about are Atrahal accusing him of being scum because he was "middling", and people trying to lynch GL today. His reaction to Atrahal has been noted as very intense, to the point of being an overreaction, and he's been seriously fighting GL's lynch, actually more than Barghy, who said he was giving GL a pass today.
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Moving on to looking at all the end of day voting layouts:
Shinrei, on 19 June 2014 - 03:51 AM, said:
It is day 1, Day has timed out without a lynch.
12 players are alive.
Ampelas, Atrahal, Barghast, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Hood's Path, Kaschan, Liosan, Nimander Golit, Pallid, Sukul Ankhadu
1 vote Eloth: Denul
2 votes Pallid: Nimander Golit, Ampelas
1 vote Liosan: Galayn Lord
1 vote Ampelas: Atrahal
4 votes Galayn Lord: Liosan, Pallid, Kaschan, Hood's Path
Players not voting: Barghast, Eloth, Sukul Ankhad
Shinrei, on 20 June 2014 - 10:08 PM, said:
It is day 2, 8 minutes were left at time of hammer.
11 players are alive.
Ampelas, Atrahal, Barghast, Denul, Eloth, Galayn Lord, Hood's Path, Kaschan, Liosan, Nimander Golit, Sukul Ankhadu
6 votes Kaschan: Sukul Ankhadu, Galayn Lord, Ampelas, Nimander Golit, Barghast, Hood's Path
4 votes Galayn Lord: Liosan, Eloth, Kaschan, Denul
1 vote Ampelas: Atrahal
Players not voting: None
The only people who did not have a vote on GL at the end of day either day are: Barghast, Sukul, Nimander, Ampelas (this is not counting GL himself of course.)
Today, Barghy is voting GL right now. This leaves only Sukul, Nimander, and Ampelas. Sukul is basically a nonentity, so that leaves Nimander and Ampelas. That's the extent to which they've gone to avoid GL getting lynched. Never having voted him, not even to get a lynch, because apparently GL's CF isn't better than a no-lynch. And who is that true for? Scum. Scum either saving their buddy, or keeping town alive for the inevitable WIFOM he will bring. To town, any lynch gives more information, GL's especially, since without it there's a boatload of WIFOM.
POSSIBLE WIFOM ALERT:
And here's where it gets a bit more speculative, because it's NK analysis.
Nimander and Ampelas were both voting Pallid, the only ones doing so, when day ended. Pallid got NK'ed. Atrahal called out Nimander, Ampelas, and GL as scum yesterday, Ampelas overreacted, and Atrahal got NK'ed. Atrahal was a nonentity, basically, besides calling out Nimander and Ampelas as scum, so why else would scum want to kill them? He wouldn't help town much more alive than dead, judging by his post count, so I can't see any other reason for an NK. To be quite honest, I wouldn't be surprised if Denul got NK'ed tonight, after he's come after them. Of course, now he won't be NK'ed, because that would be too obvious for scum to do now that I've pointed it out. But if they don't do it, then Denul will be hunting them tomorrow, as he's promised already.
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