[Eloth]

Barghast, on 30 May 2014 - 07:22 PM, said:

Eloth, on 30 May 2014 - 07:00 PM, said:

Pallid, on 30 May 2014 - 06:58 PM, said:

cross post.

using cinema wifi (not in theatre yet, not a horrible phone in cinema user) but batteries grim.

ace hot shit eloth! (assuming you aren't lying, at this juncture I'm going to)

denul barghast or gl then

Oh for gods sake that was fucking D-DAY! How mentally handicapped would I have to be to choose to not win?

I would be VERY happy to lynch Denul. But we have a reprieve here, we can talk over the weekend and see how things settle up with this revelation that I am the fucking healer.

I can't find any holes in this logic. If he was killer, then he ends it with a kill. Why hold back indeed? The only part that worries me is the fact that whoever is killer would choose pallid, and coincidence of Eloth also choosing to heal pallid.

Here's where my head is at:

The first night with no kill, Eloth reveals healer and claims to heal amp.

The next day, GL reveals a BP, but didst do it to cast suspicions on Eloth. Had he did it to try and make Eloth seem like a liar, I could POSSIBLY see.

Last night, again another no kill. Eloth claims to heal pallid.

It's basically this simple for me. I could POSSIBLY see one or two of those being true, but all 3? Something, I mean COME ON. Something Is fishy as hell here. It's more likely Eloth is telling the truth, and GL claimed that whole BP thing to set something up later, but come on. For me, it has to be one of those 2.

Not really low chances of scum & me picking Pallid.

Total number of players in game - Scum (for scum)& - People I think are scum (for me) - people scum won't kill (me, haha, bet you fuckers are regretting that right now huh) = players left over who scum might target. The most likely of that small pool (was basically just 2 people I wanted to heal last night) was Pallid.

[Eloth]

I should also point out that I didn't reveal after there was no NK, I revealed the day before that.

Events went like this;

End of Day 2 I reveal healer - Night 2 No NK - Day 3 I am asked who I healed; answer Ampelas - Day 3 GL reveals BP

[Barghast]

Eloth, on 30 May 2014 - 07:40 PM, said:

I should also point out that I didn't reveal after there was no NK, I revealed the day before that.

Events went like this;

End of Day 2 I reveal healer - Night 2 No NK - Day 3 I am asked who I healed; answer Ampelas - Day 3 GL reveals BP

Noted.

Eloth, on 30 May 2014 - 07:35 PM, said:

Barghast, on 30 May 2014 - 07:22 PM, said:

Eloth, on 30 May 2014 - 07:00 PM, said:

Pallid, on 30 May 2014 - 06:58 PM, said:

cross post.

using cinema wifi (not in theatre yet, not a horrible phone in cinema user) but batteries grim.

ace hot shit eloth! (assuming you aren't lying, at this juncture I'm going to)

denul barghast or gl then

Oh for gods sake that was fucking D-DAY! How mentally handicapped would I have to be to choose to not win?

I would be VERY happy to lynch Denul. But we have a reprieve here, we can talk over the weekend and see how things settle up with this revelation that I am the fucking healer.

I can't find any holes in this logic. If he was killer, then he ends it with a kill. Why hold back indeed? The only part that worries me is the fact that whoever is killer would choose pallid, and coincidence of Eloth also choosing to heal pallid.

Here's where my head is at:

The first night with no kill, Eloth reveals healer and claims to heal amp.

The next day, GL reveals a BP, but didst do it to cast suspicions on Eloth. Had he did it to try and make Eloth seem like a liar, I could POSSIBLY see.

Last night, again another no kill. Eloth claims to heal pallid.

It's basically this simple for me. I could POSSIBLY see one or two of those being true, but all 3? Something, I mean COME ON. Something Is fishy as hell here. It's more likely Eloth is telling the truth, and GL claimed that whole BP thing to set something up later, but come on. For me, it has to be one of those 2.

Not really low chances of scum & me picking Pallid.

Total number of players in game - Scum (for scum)& - People I think are scum (for me) - people scum won't kill (me, haha, bet you fuckers are regretting that right now huh) = players left over who scum might target. The most likely of that small pool (was basically just 2 people I wanted to heal last night) was Pallid.

Well, you had a 1 in 4 chance of who to pick to heal(.25) and if 2 scum, their chance at target was 1 in 3(.33), or if 1 scum(.25)

So the chances were actually .25 times .25(or .33) which gives us .0625% (.0825%)

6 percent and 8 percent. I'm inclined to believe you though, mostly because of the BP reveal by GL. It would mean we had 3 straight roled player(Liosan ninja, you healer, GL BP). The only reason I can see GL claiming a BP is to put in play something else later in the game. The chances of both of you being straight are just too slim.

I see it as GL and Kaschan, with Kaschan's not wanting to be the hammer on Amp now being very suspicious.

[Barghast]

I've already screwed off at my desk too much. I'll check back in later tonight when I get home. The game is frozen either way. I want to hear from GL.

[Galayn Lord]

Well I think that does confirm Eloth as healer, unless we consider scum withholding...but I don't see why they would...unless Eloth is the sole killer remaining (with Sukul having been the other one), but I think that less likely.

So Denul, Kaschan, Barghast (for me, obviously). Lots of time over the weekend to think it through.

[Galayn Lord]

There would have been no reason for me to reveal the BP thing at that particular point as scum. You'll also notice that I didn't use it to push any particular agenda - but put it out there to give explanation to town for the no kill, and then tried to posit several outcomes based on that.

[Galayn Lord]

Well, if there are two killers left, I'd personally be more sure of Kaschan and Barghast being them. The reason I say that is because during my reread (thus far, haven't finished), I'm finding it difficult to link Denul to anyone else - as he alienated most players at one point or another. The, erm, one exception to that is probably myself, heh.

[Pallid]

now what if gl is telling the truth and kasch and bargh are our killers.

fuck me this game really could go anyway today, gods but how I both hate and love it.

fuckity fuck.

need this weekend freeze to look over the whole game.

also xmen dofp is a bloody good film

[Galayn Lord]

Hold on - 6 players alive. That means there can't be more than two scum, right? If there is a pair of killers that means there's no symp among us, right?

[Pallid]

was doing the maths, no symp or sukul was the other killer.

2 killers and symp = scum win (hypothetical stalemate but healer would have to guess right every night into eternity)

ergo 2 killers or 1 killer + symp or 1 killer.



in any situation I'm totally torn on all 4 remaining now, going to bed, gong to try and keep myself away tomorrow at work and then sit down in front of the laptop and figure this the fuck out

[Galayn Lord]

Yes, Sukul could have been a killer. Which might explain the Denul lack of connection. This will be tough, but, BCS, it may not be D-day at least.

[Denul]

I don't know who I am anymore. 6 alive that means we lynch and night kill. = scum win.

If we lynch wrong.

I suggest going to night. Odd even rule.

[Pallid]

I disagree, we have times to knuckle down and figure this out

[Denul]

If we lynch wrong and 2 scum then they win.

Quick thought Pallid. If Sukul was a killer then only one scum left, Eloth could have witheld a kill if he knew it wasn't d day.

If we are to trust Eloth then going to night may be good to remove him from the game because scum cannot afford to keep him around and he already said he can't self heal.

[Denul]

6 players and one more being removed from the suspect pool is good logic.

[Pallid]

what if eloth guesses right again?

what if they kill eloth

what if they kill me

same 4 candidates apply, this is not good logic Mr man and you know it

[Eloth]

Denul, on 30 May 2014 - 10:48 PM, said:

I don't know who I am anymore. 6 alive that means we lynch and night kill. = scum win.

If we lynch wrong.

I suggest going to night. Odd even rule.

Pallid, on 31 May 2014 - 06:24 AM, said:

I disagree, we have times to knuckle down and figure this out

Denul, on 31 May 2014 - 07:36 AM, said:

If we lynch wrong and 2 scum then they win.

Quick thought Pallid. If Sukul was a killer then only one scum left, Eloth could have witheld a kill if he knew it wasn't d day.

If we are to trust Eloth then going to night may be good to remove him from the game because scum cannot afford to keep him around and he already said he can't self heal.

Denul, on 31 May 2014 - 07:37 AM, said:

6 players and one more being removed from the suspect pool is good logic.

Pallid, on 31 May 2014 - 07:47 AM, said:

what if eloth guesses right again?

what if they kill eloth

what if they kill me

same 4 candidates apply, this is not good logic Mr man and you know it

This looks remarkably like desperation from Denul, which isn't surprising given the fact that a number of us have said he is our primary candidate today.

Urging us to vote night? Wow.

[Eloth]

^ change "our primary candidate" to "a candidate", over exaggeration doesn't help at this point

[Pallid]

man we need to get a post isolation feature, view content just does not work correctly.

Bargh - everyone if us has voted for at some stage
Pallid - only Eloth (day one)
Kasch - Gl, Eloth, Pallid
Denul - Eloth, Pallid
Eloth - GL, Denul, Bargh, Pallid, Kasch (so everyone again)
GL - Eloth, Kasch



now this was me flicking through the thread catching post counts only, a few caught my eye on the way through that weren't on post counts (mine on Kasch and Kasch on Eloth)
However the entire time I've been thinking, its Eloth and Kasch. Its Eloth and Kasch.

Quite the turn around eh? But what if they knew/ suspected their symp was gone, with holding a kill and "CI"ing me in the process is the play to make, most players have expressed their feelings of town ness toward me, I've kind of been on Eloths side but still suspicious of him enough to push for the Amp lynch, getting me on board would give Eloth a run home.
Now, stopping me is thatof the six surviving I was a logica scum target, only Kasch has drawn as little heat as I have. Killing Denul or Eloth at this time would be madness due to survival WIFOM, GL has been under surveillance since his reveal, Bargh was almost lynched. But my play hasn't been great, my gut has been awful and I've been involved in every bad lynch so far (all of them) Kaschs play has been under the radar constant, the fact that he and Eloth are both still alive sets bells ringing. WIFOM aside, the healer should not still be alive. Kasch was the sole survivor who was not there at reveal time.

I just can't shake this feeling that he's a killer, for a partner GL doesn't fit the bill, Denul, hell he's just analysed so much of the game I'm beyond thinking he's a killer, so verbose, Barghast Kasch has voted on, more than once iirc (don't quote me on that)

Then the was the cool and calm, pull back from hammering, could have dropped the hammer, but again, without surity of a symp, it wouldn't be game (even with a NK) Barghast was happy to drop it.

Its Eloth and Kasch



vote Kasch

[Eloth]

I was feeling happy about this game again until that post.

I can get behind as Kaschan lynch (as posted by me previously I think he is just behind Denul in terms of scum) but would prefer to have input from everyone else and we have 4 days to make up our minds.

Pallid, if you go back and re-read I have consistently felt you have been town, this isn't a change of heart or "the play to make". Confirming it to the rest of thread is just icing on the cake as far as I am concerned.