[Path-Shaper]

Women and children out of the water, ST is hunting.

Okral Lom, on 15 April 2014 - 11:46 PM, said:

Right, post count analysis time! At the end of Day 1 (give or take a few hours), we had the following post counts:

Denul 52
Okral Lom 41
Alkend39
Tiamatha24
Shadow21
Eloth20
Path-Shaper 18
Monok Ochem 18
Rikkter15
Bek Okhan12
Lock12
Serc 12
Korabas8
Kessobahn8
Galayn Lord8
Ampelas7
Ruse4

On the basis of my theory before the game, I therefore expect that one out of Shadow, Eloth and Rikkter are scum. I think I'll try and make a case on Eloth tomorrow - he's just been smoothly gliding through the game so far.

Except there's a saboteur in the water!

Lock, on 15 April 2014 - 11:44 PM, said:

The other thought that struck me is that Okral's surprising about-turn could be calculated. Seeing that one of you and Serc is now almost definitely going to bite it, they seek to distance themselves from an upcoming Monok kill by casting suspicion on them - as in, why would they kill someone they had started suspecting?

[Path-Shaper]

Denul, on 16 April 2014 - 03:38 AM, said:

Lock, on 15 April 2014 - 10:49 PM, said:

Unless, of course, that's what they want us to think

Yeah, it's all wifom of course, but I think on night 1 the killer stood to gain far more from leaving him alive than the small bit of wifom from that, so I'm ready to disregard the wifom here.

That being said, could easily have been an order put in early that the killer had the opportunity to change later and didn't - ie I think the killer was on and submitted early, but not necessarily not on later.

Denul, on 16 April 2014 - 03:42 AM, said:

Sounds good, Okral and GL will be ones to keep a strong eye on going forward. Obviously we don't dismiss anyone out of hand.


I am planning to talk about on-thread the leaders-and-Kenshiro-both-potentially-having-followers dilemma later on (probably tomorrow real time, I don't think I'm going to risk posting tonight and get dragged into something when I need to go to bed soon). There's enough players here that I don't think have played a lot of faction games, it's something that might not be evident to a lot of them.

[Gust Hubb]

Path-Shaper, on 16 April 2014 - 03:12 AM, said:

Women and children out of the water, ST is hunting.

Okral Lom, on 15 April 2014 - 11:46 PM, said:

Right, post count analysis time! At the end of Day 1 (give or take a few hours), we had the following post counts:

Denul 52
Okral Lom 41
Alkend 39
Tiamatha 24
Shadow 21
Eloth 20
Path-Shaper 18
Monok Ochem 18
Rikkter 15
Bek Okhan 12
Lock 12
Serc 12
Korabas 8
Kessobahn 8
Galayn Lord 8
Ampelas 7
Ruse 4

On the basis of my theory before the game, I therefore expect that one out of Shadow, Eloth and Rikkter are scum. I think I'll try and make a case on Eloth tomorrow - he's just been smoothly gliding through the game so far.

Except there's a saboteur in the water!

Lock, on 15 April 2014 - 11:44 PM, said:

The other thought that struck me is that Okral's surprising about-turn could be calculated. Seeing that one of you and Serc is now almost definitely going to bite it, they seek to distance themselves from an upcoming Monok kill by casting suspicion on them - as in, why would they kill someone they had started suspecting?

Which one is Jaws?

[Gust Hubb]

Isn't D'rek and Khells overthinking the faction thing? I mean yes the RI thugs are technically under one of the leaders, but they have no idea who their leader is... So really there are no teams.

[Path-Shaper]

Alkend, on 16 April 2014 - 11:50 AM, said:

I hope the killers have given you a reason for why Monok. I think it was to let Denul have a better ride of it today as people say scum would want us to look at Denul ergo we leave Denul alone.

I don't mind leaving Vengeance (denul) alone for now but he is my main candidate for scum.

Tiamatha, on 16 April 2014 - 11:34 AM, said:

damn, that's some shrewd reasoning by OL, not much I can do about it with further highlighting eloth.

Don't like how he picked GL as on of he shady players needing attention.

it would create a wifom storm but I think OL should be killed tonight his posts are quite sensible, how to mentally communicate that to my killers...

[Path-Shaper]

Gust Hubb, on 16 April 2014 - 12:05 PM, said:

Isn't D'rek and Khells overthinking the faction thing? I mean yes the RI thugs are technically under one of the leaders, but they have no idea who their leader is... So really there are no teams.

Well, neither one of them is RI, so they have no idea what RI's know in terms of leaders. (Unless of course you take my OP posting of the RI PM as gospel, which...they should).

[Gust Hubb]

Path-Shaper, on 16 April 2014 - 12:08 PM, said:

Gust Hubb, on 16 April 2014 - 12:05 PM, said:

Isn't D'rek and Khells overthinking the faction thing? I mean yes the RI thugs are technically under one of the leaders, but they have no idea who their leader is... So really there are no teams.

Well, neither one of them is RI, so they have no idea what RI's know in terms of leaders. (Unless of course you take my OP posting of the RI PM as gospel, which...they should).

Everything PS says is gospel, my dear man.

[Path-Shaper]

Okral Lom, on 16 April 2014 - 01:43 PM, said:

Shadow is either doing a very convincing impersonation of a dunce, or he is one. I can't quite decide.

[Gust Hubb]

I am worshipped? And second coming? What does that make D'rek?

[Path-Shaper]

Okral Lom, on 16 April 2014 - 09:40 PM, said:

Haha, laughing at Eloth telling me I can't do maths. First time that's ever happened to me, I think...

But I'm liking how engaged everyone is. The low posters are putting up content and engaging their brains (for the most part) and there are some interactions to scout out.

Now, Denul has come on and backed up Ampelas about the 'symps of the Warlord' structure. I was hesitant that Ampelas was fishing before, but the fact that they're backing each other up means that either [a] they're telling the truth; or [b] it's an elaborate ruse concocted between a set of paired scum. I think [b] is too ballsy to be true (in theory it could work if everyone else was either RI or a Warlord and nobody had any evidence to contradict them with, but there's no way for them to know that), which leaves [a]. So I'll put them on a PI list, and pay a bit of attention to who they do or do not look to follow/lead. Also, if I see anyone looking back for signalling from Denul it's a good sign that they're scum.

Ruse's FM thing isn't something to be automatically discarded. It's a possibility to keep in mind. It just seems unlikely given that the Librarian RP was very much GH's MO (if you'll forgive the pun ). I've never really understood why people get annoyed about speculation like this 'muddying the thread'. Provided you track the ideas back to the source (and don't immediately take them as gospel) you can get a lot of information about the game that way.

ST

Ruse, on 16 April 2014 - 09:19 PM, said:

I threw the FM idea out there on purpose. I was curious to see who would jump on it. When I was posting it, I knew that I'd get jumped on for it - I'm interested in seeing whether or not the pressure keeps up, and to see who will continue to push for my lynch once I rebut.

[Path-Shaper]

Gust Hubb, on 16 April 2014 - 06:38 PM, said:

I am worshipped? And second coming? What does that make D'rek?

The Virgin Mother?

[Path-Shaper]

Okral Lom, on 16 April 2014 - 10:24 PM, said:

So the Symps of the Warlord thing is interesting now that I re-read it. Ampelas seems fairly convinced (or he wouldn't have said "I told you so"), but Denul isn't necessarily. He could have seen Ampelas' post and extrapolated that this would make him look clean. It's a smart move that would turn a lot of people off his track. Will have to bear that in mind.

Now having said that, Korabas has come out and said he's willing to vote for Denul despite his claims about Warlord sympage. I'll be interested to see how he responds to my probing about it. I already think he's pretty shifty, but this could be the icing on the cake. The thing is, I still can't decide whether I trust myself to be objective about a player I fingered after one post. Deep down I really want Korabas to be scum, since it would make me look like a genius. But I'm wary that is not in and of itself a good reason for it to be so. Plus, I'm practicing what I preach on the Monty Hall thing and looking at other people for today. Might start pushing him again tomorrow.

ST

[Path-Shaper]

Lovers convo

Lock, on 16 April 2014 - 04:32 PM, said:

Denul, on 16 April 2014 - 04:16 PM, said:

I'm going to approve but also rebutt your timing suggestion, for distancing.

I would not expect otherwise I've likewise been asking Galayn why he might look into you today, because I'm sooo interested in knowing.

Anyways, the timing is in the end just some reasoning to have a look at certain people who haven't been looked at yet. I have to say, Galayn comes out squeaky clean so far. It may be the small number of posts hindering analysis, but...what there is, is usually worth reading. If they are scum, then they are posting very well so far.

Denul, on 16 April 2014 - 04:41 PM, said:

Yeah. Didn't Sir Thursday sign up for this one? I'm guessing that might be him - a small number of very well presented posts that cut straight to business are usually his style, I think. Not sure if he plays any differently when town versus scum - I think I've mainly only played with him in faction games, plus it has been a while.

Lock, on 16 April 2014 - 04:51 PM, said:

Denul, on 16 April 2014 - 04:41 PM, said:

Yeah. Didn't Sir Thursday sign up for this one? I'm guessing that might be him - a small number of very well presented posts that cut straight to business are usually his style, I think. Not sure if he plays any differently when town versus scum - I think I've mainly only played with him in faction games, plus it has been a while.

Definitely could be ST, yeah. I'm the same as you, though, I only really remember ST in faction games.

This Monty Hall thing is going completely over my head, and I am loath to try and understand why they're even discussing it.

Kesso and Eloth have both used algebra. Signalling??

Denul, on 16 April 2014 - 04:53 PM, said:

Lol, the N+1 is a signal from one scum to another that Kenshiro is Okral because O is one letter after N??!!

Yeah, I have no idea what they're trying to prove/disprove with the probability... I'm just skimming over those posts.

Lock, on 16 April 2014 - 10:16 PM, said:

You might have a bite:

Okral Lom, on 16 April 2014 - 10:09 PM, said:

Out of curiosity Korabas, what's your opinion on this post of Denul's, specifically the stuff about Warlord symps?

Think Okral knows something?

Denul, on 16 April 2014 - 10:24 PM, said:

Yeah, why does he ask Korabas? And after quoting a Korabas post that as far as I can tell is irrelevant to what he is asking???

[Path-Shaper]

ST and D'rek have been "trap-setting" this game. Not a bad thing, considering how easy it is to sit back and be no more than reactionary as town.

Denul, on 16 April 2014 - 10:33 PM, said:

Denul, on 16 April 2014 - 10:30 PM, said:

Also, I would like to point out that the Denul gloating accusation did not come from me. A dismissal of that accusation does not need to autmatically turn your vote onto me, we've had many other cases presented today!

I'm curious to see who will just plunge right into the "I don't agree with this one bit of the Ruse case, vote Denul" trap. A couple already did, so I put this post up to see who retroactively defends their wibble-wobble. If I do get lynched, gives you a good backboard to push on any of them who did.

[Path-Shaper]

It was not my intention for warlord signaling to be a potential thread-muddler. I may have to step in if it gets too ridiculous.

Okral Lom, on 16 April 2014 - 10:50 PM, said:

OK, Doing a re-read of Day 2 and this post stood out:

Bek Okhan, on 16 April 2014 - 05:21 AM, said:

I don't know about the 'attracting scum' part of Serc's case, but the first people to suggest that Serc's comment may have been fishing for information were Okral and Korabas.

Okral Lom, on 14 April 2014 - 04:57 PM, said:

<a post I made>

Korabas, on 14 April 2014 - 09:46 PM, said:

<Korabas' first post>

Interestingly, it is this post that pushes OL to vote for Korabas:

Okral Lom, on 14 April 2014 - 10:07 PM, said:

<My Day 1 case on Korabas>

Which suggests that there is some kind of connection there, but stuffed if I if it is even relevant.

BO strongly downplays the importance of a connection between the two of us. That's the second time he has tried to defuse potential heat going Korabas' way. Maybe BO was the symp rather than MO? But then it's not clear if Korabas is scum or a warlord...

[Gust Hubb]

Path-Shaper, on 16 April 2014 - 10:17 PM, said:

Gust Hubb, on 16 April 2014 - 06:38 PM, said:

I am worshipped? And second coming? What does that make D'rek?

The Virgin Mother?

Ack!

Good thing I wasn't eating, or I would've needed the heimlech manuver.

And let the warlords muddle. Their grave, so to speak.

[Gust Hubb]

Good lord ST is scary. If and when I am scum again, he'll be the first to go. Man's a fucking iceberg with most of his potency in PM's.

[Gust Hubb]

Korabas, on 16 April 2014 - 11:23 PM, said:

Okral Lom, on 16 April 2014 - 10:09 PM, said:

Out of curiosity Korabas, what's your opinion on this post of Denul's, specifically the stuff about Warlord symps?

Denul, on 16 April 2014 - 05:52 PM, said:

Ok so this is the other point I wanted to bring up about mechanics and scum hunting in this game. PS did retcon the "majority" from the scum VCs as potentially just "parity". So it could be that Kenshiro really is alone, or it could be that he has followers, we don't know. Either way, we only need to eliminate Kenshiro to win. I do think and have expressed that I think we are too gung-ho to jump on signalling accusations etc, but that is not to say that looking for killers/lead scum via links to/from their followers/partners is not useful and worth doing. Normally! The problem is, this game has the three gang leaders each of whom may have followers that they know or that know them. The sign-up thread said the game "Contains some variations of typical roles" so there could be any kind of role out there. Looking for Kenshiro based on player interactions like a basic symp-master interaction is not going to work. If Kenshiro has any allies, there could be four similar partnerships out there with only one being scum. If Kenshiro is on his own after all, there could be three out there and none are scum. Just something for everyone else to keep in mind. We need to focus on individual behaviours more than potential partner or follower relationships or else there's a good chance we'll wind up just shooting ourselves in the foot.

I've thought about this. It's a good post. Being a gang leader myself, I can't really say I know any of my 'team'. That said, the symp-master relationship outlined above would certainly accommodate a single killer, since any symp-master relationship has essentially lost its meaning. So now we have a whole town team, likely speckled with roles, but our ability to track on-thread symp relationships has been hamstrung. I can't say I've seen this sort of game in the few I've played.fixed 'have' to 'has'

It's really kind if funny how people are once again creating faction-esq theories when this is a M&P game. It's like Spycraft all over again.

[Gust Hubb]

Kessobahn, on 16 April 2014 - 11:33 PM, said:

Any particular reason you just held up a "Kill me now Kenshiro" sign?

General Ackbar: IT'S A TRAP!!!!!

[Path-Shaper]

Gust Hubb, on 16 April 2014 - 11:39 PM, said:

Kessobahn, on 16 April 2014 - 11:33 PM, said:

Any particular reason you just held up a "Kill me now Kenshiro" sign?

General Ackbar: IT'S A TRAP!!!!!

It's also fucking illegal. I don't have any recourse except to Mod-Kill Korabas.

Town will get no CF.

I will keep Kenshiro's VC's intact.

Gnaw/Raoh will, however, know that Korabas was telling the truth sans-CF because his bullet proof will disappear and his vig will be unlocked.

Dammit Korb, Souther's Nantou Juuji Hou ability IS EXACTLY WHY I FORBID IDENTITY REVEALS.