[Werthead]

Ukraine has hit over 50 Russian vessels in the last four days, including military vessels, patrol boats, fuel tankers and cargo ships.

The Moscow Oil Refinery is on fire again. Doesn't look like a hit, but damage from the last attack suddenly blew up. The fuel terminal is Azov overnight was hit and is on fire.

Ukrainian F-16s have stepped up glide bomb attacks on the Russian main lines in Donetsk Oblast, destroying a Russian forward drone position.

Polish-Ukrainian talks on transferring MiG-29s have resumed. Some claims that Ukraine has now lost more MiGs than it had at the start of the war and has been kept going in that weight class by donations from other countries, making the acquisition of the Polish MiG-29s desirable.

Ukraine has designed Freya, a cheaper Patriot substitute. It is in talks with European partners on mass production.

Russian blogger Golman has said that the Russian economy is "fked" and is "flying into the abyss."

Ukrainian soldiers - presumably in quieter moments - have been rescuing cats and arranging for them to be transported out of the warzone.

One Moscow resident confirming he has spent two full days sleeping in his car in the queue for the gas station and is now well into his third.

Ukraine has confirmed it has entered final testing on its ballistic missile engine systems. Once tested, they will begin using them against Russian targets, maybe in September or October. Ukraine has noted that Russia does not have sufficient anti-ballistic missile systems to protect key targets like refineries. S-400 and S-500 can theoretically engage ballistic missiles, but the S-400 is not optimised for it and there are maybe two S-500 systems in existence, both tasked to protect Moscow. 

Kazakhstan has set up police checkpoints near the Russian border to ensure no fuel is being smuggled out of the country.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has confirmed strikes on 10 additional Russian tanker vessels, 4 ferries and a fuel tanker train near Tokmak. The Syzran and Ust-Luga oil facilities have been hit as well again. 24 vessels on the Sea of Azov have been hit in the last few days, and there are some signs Russia is pulling ships out of the area. Permits for transit through the Kerch Strait and the Don-Azov Canal have been suspended.

Lindsay Graham's passing is being mourned in Ukraine. For all his other demerits, he was steadfast in his support for Ukraine and for harsher measures on Russia.

A consortium of Russian farmers has told the Kremlin they can no longer afford to start their farm machines. They've threatened to leave their harvests untended, and Russia would have to import massive amounts of food (or let millions starve).

Russian blogger and minor politician threats to Kazakhstan after Kazakhstan deployed mobile police teams to inspect Russian vehicles trying to leave the country with extra tanks of fuel.

[Werthead]

Zelensky removing Fedorov as Defence Minister is a questionable decision. Fedorov arranged the Starlink shutdown and was heavily driving the anti-corruption drive in procurement, as well as pushing hard for the current drone campaign in place of infantry assaults.

Heavy attacks on Russian logistics, ships and refineries continues, the sustained scale of Ukraine's attacks on Russian infrastructure and logistics on a daily and nightly basis is extremely impressive. Hopefully that now won't change.

[Garak]

Maybe the anti-corruption stuff was going too well. That's the fastest way to upset someone in politics.

[Mentalist]

Garak, on 15 July 2026 - 11:27 PM, said:

Maybe the anti-corruption stuff was going too well. That's the fastest way to upset someone in politics.

Zelensky has a bad habit of removing anyone who starts becoming excessively popular/trusted by the public.

[Werthead]

Mentalist, on 16 July 2026 - 03:27 AM, said:

Zelensky has a bad habit of removing anyone who starts becoming excessively popular/trusted by the public.

At this stage it looks like the conflict will last well into what would have been Zelensky's second and last term anyway, so there is an argument he should declare he's not going to run again and will call fresh elections when the war is over. That way he can leave on a high and not have to worry about this kind of thing. If the war ends up lasting into most of what would have been his second term and then he stands again, that seems to be against the spirit of the term limits, if not the letter of the law.

If he goes out like that, he can spend the rest of his life living it up in book deals and the after-dinner circuit in Europe, easily. The post-war period is probably going to be a total mess in reconstruction costs, funding it, brining back refugees etc and he might not be able to handle that very well and that could dinge his long-term popularity. Though for Ukraine as a whole, that's a good problem to have.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 16 July 2026 - 11:40 PM

[Werthead]

Russia has hit a Turkish-owned (but Guinea-Bassau-flagged) vessel in the Black Sea near Odesa with three cruise missiles, the ship was severely damaged and has been taken to Odesa for repairs. Five killed, five missing, five airlifted to hospital. 

Growing reports that Fedorov might be reinstated tomorrow, but not 100% confirmed.

Ukraine has destroyed a Tu-95 strategic bomber at Russia's Engles Air Force Base.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 20 July 2026 - 12:36 AM

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 19 July 2026 - 09:35 PM, said:

Russia has hit a Turkish-owned (but Guinea-Bassau-flagged) vessel in the Black Sea near Odesa with three cruise missiles, the ship was severely damaged and has been taken to Odesa for repairs. Five killed, five missing, five airlifted to hospital. 

Growing reports that Fedorov might be reinstated tomorrow, but not 100% confirmed.

I would be stunned if Ze re-instated Fedorov as MoD.

Ukrainian political tradition is to take a low-level functionary job that's tangentially related to Defense, and then transfer ALL the powers and responsibilities of the MoD to it, but only while Fedorov occupies it.


He was also speaking to various troop type commanders today, apparently looking for a potential Syrsky replacement. Which could be quite interesting.

[Werthead]

Ukraine launched huge overnight drone strikes. They've started targeting additional Wildberries (Russian Amazon, basically) distribution centres, since Russian soldiers are sourcing large amounts of survival gear, body armour, IR cameras etc through the service, enough that they can be classified as military logistics hubs. Since the start of the attacks, Wildberries employees have been finding excuses not to turn up to work. Three hubs have so far been hit, one heavily enough to be classified as effectively destroyed. A fuel depot at Pedosk and a substation at Yalta, Crimea were also destroyed, and a refinery in Tatarstan was damaged.

Fire Point has posted test footage of Ukrainian ballistic missiles undergoing testing.

3 tankers and 4 cargo ships were hit by Ukrainian drones on the Sea of Azov and Black Sea overnight.

A Russian Gerbara drone with live explosives was found on a beach in Turkey, suggesting it had come down over the sea and was washed ashore.

Zelensky may make major personnel shifts in the coming day or so, with Syrskyi's position apparently in question.

Bit of a random one to end the evening on. Laura Loomer has arrived in Ukraine and is touring the country. Apparently she has changed her mind and now says that aid to Ukraine is vital, and tougher sanctions are needed on Russia. Reportedly she got very annoyed at people calling her a Putin apologist and has now concluded that Ukraine needs to be supported until Russia is forced to withdraw.

There's been a mild shift in hardline right-wing American influencers now switching to supporting Ukraine in recent months. Possibly useful but odd.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 21 July 2026 - 12:26 AM

[Werthead]

This is turning into a mess. Zelensky has offered to replace Syrskyi and give Fedorov another job in government. Fedorov has said he will only return to his previous position as defence minister. There has already been one big meeting over this and another one is happening now, since Zelensky knows this is a PR disaster and needs to be nipped in the bud quickly. The calculus now is whether backing down makes him look or weak or pragmatic.

ETA: Syrskyi out, Mykhailo Drapatyi in.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 21 July 2026 - 08:10 PM

[Mentalist]

Drapatyj is a good pick, but he's got zero skills at ionternal politics, so I dunno how long he'll last.

He was already busted down once from a higher post, so I'm worried the deep establishment officer corps will do what they can to undermine him.

I'm curious who the head of the General Staff will be.

[Werthead]

Major General Ihor Skybyuk will become Chief of the General Staff of Ukraine’s Armed Forces, apparently. I am not familiar past a google search. He seems competent and played a key role in the Kharkiv counteroffensive.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has initiated a strong counter-attack north of Lyman. It looks like this is an offensive designed to cut off Sandryholove, with fighting going on in Zelena Dolyna and Lypove.

Russia has been unable to sell bonds in its recent auctions. Russia needs 1.5 trillion rubles to cover its deficit and has only raised 10 billion from the bonds. Future sales of bonds has been suspended. Russia is either going to default on its existing bonds or have to inflate its currency massively, either of which would be a "suboptimal" outcome.

Ukraine has blitzed Belgorod city's fuel stations, destroying 20 stations, one-third of the total, in four days. This is in response to Russia's attacks on Ukrainian forecourt stations.

Ukraine claims to have hacked a Russian air defence system near Moscow and used it to shoot down an Su-57. This would be only the third Su-57 destroyed in the war.

About 10% of Russia's Wildberries capacity has been destroyed in under one week, causing major disruption to Russian military deliveries to the front (not to mention major annoyance for Russian civilians). Some reports tonight that a further Wildberries warehouse is now burning in Sevastopol.

A Buk-M3 SAM system has been destroyed in Donetsk Oblast.

Laura Loomer has interviewed Zelensky. Interesting to see how that turns out.

Dugin is now calling openly for mobilising another half-million or so Russian troops.

[Mentalist]

UA is concerned about suspension of grain traffic to Odessa, and how this will affect the World Food Program. In particular, Maersk stated they won't be sending any further cargo ships to Greater Odessa, re-routing everything to Romania.

The orcs have also declared restrictions for shipping in their territorial waters in the Black Sea.

Kazakhstan halved its oil production, due to disruptions of Black Sea exports.

This sea-aimed confrontation that started with UA's shaping operations on Crimea is spreading both ways. Magyar's troops are shifting their focus from Northern Crimea (that's been without power for 3 weeks now) further south, into the densely populated tourist-oriented coastal strip.

[Werthead]

The Russians have gone berserk and launched an absolutely massive series of attacks in the Shakhove area, which is held by 1st Azov Corps, including some of the biggest armoured attacks for at least two years. The Ukrainians have held fast and destroyed over sixty Russian armoured vehicles in the last three days.

The attack was a complete disaster. The Ukrainians saw the Russian forces gathering and hit muster points with everything they had, then blew all the bridges in the area, forcing Russian forces to stop and build pontoons. Barely any pontoons were completed before they were obliterated by drones. Russians attempted to gain local drone superiority but failed, and Ukraine pushed back the drone coverage to allow their own drones to hit the advancing Russian forces. A Grad and a Tornado artillery system were destroyed, and over 120 Russians confirmed KIA. Some sources saying it was three Grads destroyed. One Ukrainian soldier said it was the most unbelievably stupid attack he'd seen the Russians make since some of their dumbest moves near the start of the war.

In the last seven months, Russia lost 131,000 KIA and 93,000 wounded. Russia has only recruited around 221,000 troops in the same time period. Putin is reportedly considering asking North Korea for 30,000 more troops.

The first new-generation Russian Sarma multiple rocket launcher system has been confirmed destroyed in action.

The Antipinsky oil refinery in Tyumen, around 1,900 km from Ukraine, has taken a heavy series of Ukrainian drone strikes. Cargo ships transporting weapons and material from Iran to Russia (and possibly vice versa) have been hit on the Caspian Sea as well.

Almost 1500 Russian confirmed casualties yesterday, the highest total for months. Note the true figure is much higher than this, but a lot of casualties do not have filmed verification.

Ukrainian forces took command of a NATO flotilla during sea exercises, with Ukraine and NATO working on integrating their command structures and processes.

Ukraine has released a swathe of Ukrainian intelligence data on Russian-Iranian intelligence sharing to its NATO partners, including the United States. Ukraine claims that Russian imaging was used by Iran to coordinate strikes on American and allied bases in the Gulf.

As many as 8 Wildberries depots have now been struck and destroyed by Ukrainian drones or missiles. A depot in Yekaterinburg was the latest addition.

The President of Kazakhstan has proposed freezing the war on current lines for peace talks, to Putin's face during a public meeting. Putin did not seem thrilled.

[Werthead]

Romania has short down three Russian drones in its airspace in three days. It has summoned the Russian ambassador.

A Russian fuel train was hit by a drone and burst into flames, but stayed on the tracks. Oddly, the driver just kept going and drove the burning train for several dozen miles before abandoning the vehicle (the burning fuel truck was in the middle of the train).

An Indian-crewed cargo ship was hit off Odesa and seriously damaged, with four Indians killed. India has lodged a strong protest with Moscow.

Substantial new strikes across Crimea targeting energy infrastructure.

[Werthead]

The Ukrainian counter-offensive on the Dnipropetrovsk front has gained significant momentum. Fighting is underway near Muravka, while Ukrainian forces are counterattacking from several directions toward Komar and east of Voskresenka. Ukraine has intensified drone attacks around Novopavlivka and Filiia. Ukrainian forces advanced toward Uspenivka, gained ground near Rybne, took part of Berezove after attacking from Ternove, and entered Zaporizke, where both sides are reported to be engaged in close-range combat. Russian forces dislodged Ukrainians from positions in Verbove, but are not confident they can hold the position.

Ukrainian supply interdiction drones have now reached the occupied twin cities of Lysychansk and Severodonetsk, carrying out attacks on Russian resupply tankers and military trucks.

Ukraine will produce an anticipated 7 million drones this year, whilst the US is struggling to hit a target of around 200,000.

Large and expensive Russian surveillance drones operated 12+ miles across the border in Russian airspace have come under attack, with one destroyed by Ukrainian interceptors. The Russian drones have to pull back, but of course this limits their usefulness in scanning inside Ukrainian territory.

The largest Russian SAM battery protecting the Kerch Strait Bridge has been heavily damaged.

Ukrainian heavy-lift drones are now taking over the final delivery run of taking body armour, Starlink terminals and ammunition to front-line units. So far, this seems successful but only applied on a limited scale.

Almost 1600 Russian casualties recorded and verified yesterday (again, only a small fraction of the true number), again the largest number in some considerable time. A steady uptick in the daily rate over the last two weeks or so.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has dispatched 10 fire trucks and 70 personnel to assist in the fire-fighting in France's Bordeaux region.

Volgograd's Wildberries distribution centre was completely destroyed in an overnight drone strike. The nearby Lukoil refinery was also hit hard.

Some projections suggesting that over a third of Russia's farming enterprises are operating in severe debt, to the point of bankruptcy. The farming sector has been fiercely critical of the lack of government support.

Apparently Trump has stopped pressuring Zelensky to cede the Donbas and is instead now mulling over a ceasefire based on current lines. The Russians are unimpressed by this move.

Substantial protests in Kyiv and several other Ukrainian cities calling for Fedorov's reinstatement.

[Werthead]

The Russia Wildberries facility in Novosemeykino was destroyed by a very fast-moving drone not like anything we've see in the field before. Possibly a test run of the Triada Robotics "Bravo" drone, which is capable of travelling at over 700 km/h.

The Saratov refinery has been hit yet again, and Ufa twice in as many days.

The Balzi Rossi restaurant in Moscow has been bombed. The bomber was stopped at the door and detonated the device, killing themselves, a security guard and another customer. If the bomb had gone off in the packed dining area it would have been a lot worse. The cause and motive remains unclear; some Russian sources claiming the bomber was actually a courier and may not have been aware of their cargo.

Engels Airfield has been hit yet again.

Ukraine is apparently now intensifying its strikes on long-range ballistic missile launch sites inside Russian territory, to try to disrupt launches before they happen.

The Russian Volunteer Corps has reported growing requests from Russian PoWs to join the unit and fight for Ukraine. However, wary of possible sabotage, they cap the number of ex-PoWs in any given unit to around 15% of the total strength of the unit.

Some American defence companies are apparently still dismissive of Ukrainian innovation, showing both a lack of skill and desire to innovate as rapidly as the Ukrainians and (to a lesser extent) the Russians are doing in the conflict. Ukrainian mediators are finding it frustrating trying to teach the Americans how to perform low-cost drone interceptions in the Gulf when their first instinct is to fire off a $4 million interceptor that cannot be replaced for two years.

Russian oil refining is now at its lowest levels since May 2002. 

Georgian refineries are moving away from using Russian crude imports.

Another massive Ukrainian strike on Crimea. Channel 4 News analysis that Ukrainian drone strikes are now keeping pace with Russian drone strikes on Ukraine, except Ukraine is shooting down more Russian drones than vice versa. Russian use of ballistic missiles is resulting in higher damage, but Ukrainian use of ballistic missiles against Russian military targets is probably not too far away.

Ukraine has expanded its strikes on Russia to 52 of the country's 83 regions. At the start of the year, only 36 regions had been struck.

A Ukrainian F-16 used its M61 Vulcan cannon to shoot down a Russian Geran-2 loitering munition, one of the few times an F-16 gun kill has been captured on camera. Ukrainian Air Force pilots are advised not to try doing this after one pilot missed and then flew straight into the drone, losing the aircraft, last year, but in this case the F-16 had apparently exhausted its missiles against other targets. A Mirage 2000-5F also shot down a Shahed using a missile, a suboptimal value exchange but necessary before it reached a target.

Ukraine is making renewed use of the Hawk AA system supplied by the US and Spain. Some had derided the Hawk deliveries early in the war as not being altogether useful, but, after modifications, the system is proving very useful against drones.

Ukraine has deployed a new variant of the Flamingo with hugely improved avionics, allowing it to skim treetops.

Some small signs of very modest Ukrainian advances on the Lyman and Zaporizhzhia fronts, where Ukraine is starting to use combined arms again as Russian drone coverage is pushed back.

The Wildberries logistics centre in the Vladimir region has been destroyed.

Russian air defences engaged a Ukrainian drone over Gelendzhik, Krasnodar region. The drone crashed onto a crowded beach and killed 3 civilians, injuring 13. Russian AA doctrine has been extremely lax for the whole war but this was particularly poor.

Ukrainian drones hit the vehicle carrier Nadezhda off the coast of Novorossiysk. Some claims the ferry had been converted to military use.

Ukraine's strike campaign has cost Russia over $26 billion since January, including destroyed military hardware, refinery equipment, trucks, tankers, ships and the value of fuel that has gone up in smoke. 

Absolutely stunning.

This post has been edited by Werthead: Yesterday, 02:40 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine has blown up the Wildberries logistics hub in Tula. This is a huge facility and it caught fire after the initial explosion, with some signs it might be burning to the ground. This would disrupt, if not halt, Wildberries operations across the entire Tula region. The company is now in full-blown panic mode, demanding Russian state intervention to stop the company collapsing. Ukraine also hit the Wildberries facility in Krasny Bor, Leningrad region.

The Bashneft refinery in Ufa might be offline for some time. The drone strike destroyed the primary processing unit, which cannot be replaced easily or cheaply.

Ukraine has hit a dam in Belgorod Oblast with air-launched missiles.

Russian customers filling up plastic containers at a petrol station in Rostov-on-Don accidentally set fire to the fuel, burning down the petrol station and their own cars.

Ukrainian company Fire Point has said it has developed anti-orbital ballistic missile capability and will shoot down any of Russian's Starlink competitor satellites that pass over Ukrainian territory. Obviously, Russia can't do the same to Starlink (not without a massive escalation of the conflict to include the United States).

The S-400 unit defending the Kerch Strait Bridge has taken another hit, losing another launcher.

Russian General Sobolev has become the first Russian military officer to request a larger mobilisation in the autumn. He also said that Russia must completely capture all of Ukraine.

North Korea has deployed a missile unit to Russia equipped with multiple launchers and 90 personnel. Ukraine has said the unit is a legitimate target and will be destroyed.

Laura Loomer has castigated Putin for supplying weapons and intelligence to Iran to kill American personnel in the Gulf. She suggested, if she were the American President, that the leader of a country doing that would suffer a mysterious heart attack very quickly. Russian media has gone pretty berserk in response.

Ukrainian fire units arriving in France to help fight wildfires were given a hero's welcome.

Rumours sweeping Moscow that Commander-in-Chief of Russia's Aerospace Forces Chaiko was killed in the bombing of the Italian restaurant in Moscow last week, and the news is being suppressed for morale. New graves have been dug at the Troyekurovskoye cemetery in Moscow, where senior state officials are buried, and one worker said one was "for the general."

Russian tourists stopped at a cafe in Georgia and were greeted by a sign that said, by agreeing to dine there, they agreed that Vladimir Putin was a war criminal and they support the territorial integrity of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine.

Russia has now lost a third of its bulk carriers for cargo and fuel transportation out of the Black Sea.

Ukraine's home-grown Patriot alternative, Freyja, now has 10 countries signed on to support its construction. Ukraine, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden and the United Kingdom will participate in the project, and stand to gain from Ukrainian production capabilities.

Boris Nadezhdin, the former Russian Presidential candidate who fiercely criticised Putin recently, has managed to leave the country and has relocated to France.

A few weeks ago, 20% of Russian farms were on the verge of bankruptcy. The Russian farming federation now warns that figure is closer to a third.

Former US Ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul has said that when he was ambassador, it was clear that Putin only trusted his briefings from the FSB, SVR and military. If those sources are not giving him good information, he will make bad decisions, which explains quite a lot of the war.