[Cause]

Hasn’t Russia already targeted infrastructure, power stations and even civilian targets so far? What does not targeting government sites so far mean? That they aren’t actively trying to assassinate Zylensky and parliament? Sounds ludicrous to draw the line in the sand and act like it’s some moral choice. Presumably they didn’t want decapitation strikes thrown at Putin in return is all.

I’m fascinated by the self imposed restraints in a war like Ukraine. Obviously escalation needs to stay below nuclear but at the same time rather than bloodthirsty I feel it’s actually prospects to suggest if a war doesn’t require Total War the war is likely unnecessary.

The war is massive, possibly the largest war since Korea with hundreds of thousands dead on both sides, over a million casualties, over a trillion dollars spent and yet both sides (Ukraine more than Russia) play by rules that govern the ceiling of their attacks. Although in russias case some of the restrictions around mobilizations are imposed due to political and economic contraints

As momentum shifts more and more against Russia we have to worry about if they will reach for negotiation or crazy first.

This post has been edited by Cause: 26 May 2026 - 08:04 PM

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 26 May 2026 - 07:06 PM, said:

Hasn’t Russia already targeted infrastructure, power stations and even civilian targets so far? What does not targeting government sites so far mean? That they aren’t actively trying to assassinate Zylensky and parliament? Sounds ludicrous to draw the line in the sand and act like it’s some moral choice. Presumably they didn’t want decapitation strikes thrown at Putin in return is all.

I’m fascinated by the self imposed restraints in a war like Ukraine. Obviously escalation needs to stay below nuclear but at the same time rather than bloodthirsty I feel it’s actually prospects to suggest if a war doesn’t require Total War the war is likely unnecessary.

The war is massive, possibly the largest war since Korea with hundreds of thousands dead on both sides, over a million casualties, over a trillion dollars spent and yet both sides (Ukraine more than Russia) play by rules that govern the ceiling of their attacks. Although in russias case some of the restrictions around mobilizations are imposed due to political and economic contraints

As momentum shifts more and more against Russia we have to worry about if they will reach for negotiation or crazy first.

definitely crazy.

They've painted themselves in a propaganda corner where they can't claim "victory" without the rest of Donbas; and the US is rapidly losing leverage to force Ukraine to cede it.

[Garak]

The annoying thing in this is that people still buy the russian propaganda.

[Abyss]

the interesting nuance to me, is that Russia bombing gov buildings in Kyiv would amount to 'what else is new?' in that i doubt the vast majority of the universe knew Russia wasn't bombing them... on the other hand if the Ukraine was holding back and is now going to commence bombing the crap out of buildings in frikkin Moscow, that's HUGE.

[Tiste Simeon]

Garak, on 27 May 2026 - 12:03 PM, said:

The annoying thing in this is that people still buy the russian propaganda.

I can't remember who said it (George Carlin maybe?) but I'm frequently reminded of the quote "Think of how stupid the average person, then think about how half the population is even more stupid."

Ice likely butchered the quote but it's accurate.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Tiste Simeon, on 27 May 2026 - 05:07 PM, said:

Garak, on 27 May 2026 - 12:03 PM, said:

The annoying thing in this is that people still buy the russian propaganda.

I can't remember who said it (George Carlin maybe?) but I'm frequently reminded of the quote "Think of how stupid the average person, then think about how half the population is even more stupid."

Ice likely butchered the quote but it's accurate.

... and the average person confuses the average with the median?... Or maybe that's part of the joke...

[Werthead]

Confirmation that Ukraine destroyed a Buyan-M missile destroyer on Lake Onega in October, as it was transiting from the Baltic to the Black Sea.

Russia confirming that coke and oil production is down 12% in a month as a result of Ukrainian drone strikes.

Ukraine and Moldova may formally move into the next EU accession stage in July.

British GCHQ has indicated that previous estimates of Russians KIA had grossly undercounted and the real total of KIA is close to 500,000 since February 2022.

The Russian Black Sea Fleet aviation headquarters in Sevastopol has taken a missile hit, sparking a fire which burned out most of the building.

Large fuel queues reported across Zaporizhzhia and Donetsk Oblasts. Melitopol in particular has very large queues of cars waiting at fuel stations.

It appears Ukraine made a rare use of Storm Shadow to hit the Balitmor Airfield near Voronezh. Su-34s are based at the airfield.

Tuapse has been hit yet again, with heavy damage to the already-damaged sea terminal reported.

Ukraine has updated its Sea Baby sea drone mothership to carry thermobaric rockets as well as multiple FPV drones.

ISW confirming that Ukraine has been carrying out a lower-key, systemic strike on the railway logistics across the entire occupied territory, destroying junctions, freight cars and fuel tanks.

[the broken]

Azath Vitr (D, on 27 May 2026 - 05:29 PM, said:

Tiste Simeon, on 27 May 2026 - 05:07 PM, said:

Garak, on 27 May 2026 - 12:03 PM, said:

The annoying thing in this is that people still buy the russian propaganda.

I can't remember who said it (George Carlin maybe?) but I'm frequently reminded of the quote "Think of how stupid the average person, then think about how half the population is even more stupid."

Ice likely butchered the quote but it's accurate.

... and the average person confuses the average with the median?... Or maybe that's part of the joke...

Everyone always thinks they're above average and therefore can look down at 'the average person'

Was Russia actually not bombing government buildings? Seems unlikely, especially in all the places in the east where towns were getting flattened.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

the broken, on 27 May 2026 - 11:12 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 27 May 2026 - 05:29 PM, said:

Tiste Simeon, on 27 May 2026 - 05:07 PM, said:

Garak, on 27 May 2026 - 12:03 PM, said:

The annoying thing in this is that people still buy the russian propaganda.

I can't remember who said it (George Carlin maybe?) but I'm frequently reminded of the quote "Think of how stupid the average person, then think about how half the population is even more stupid."

Ice likely butchered the quote but it's accurate.

... and the average person confuses the average with the median?... Or maybe that's part of the joke...

Everyone always thinks they're above average and therefore can look down at 'the average person'

Was Russia actually not bombing government buildings? Seems unlikely, especially in all the places in the east where towns were getting flattened.

... and Russia apparently has been trying to assassinate Zelensky:

Quote

According to Ukrainian government officials and news sources, President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelenskyy has survived dozens of assassination and kidnapping attempts by Russian or pro-Russian agents during the Russo-Ukrainian war, including at least three that were foiled by Ukrainian security services.

Assassination attempts on Volodymyr Zelenskyy - Wikipedia

If braindead people count in the average then it's perfectly possible for everyone who thinks to think they're smarter than the average person and be right (but there are not enough literally braindead people on our actual planet for that---not yet, anyway...). One obvious objection to pointing out the difference between the average and the median is the IQ "bell curve" being normally distributed---in a perfectly normal distribution the average equals the median. Of course, it's not perfect, and not a great measure of intelligence (as Nassim Taleb points out, it was designed to be a good measure of "extreme unintelligence", not intelligence). But more importantly the IQ test questions are designed to try to make it approximately normally distributed, and the results are then adjusted to be normally distributed. Which (to get back to the war, obliquely) reminds me of a different quote: "Intelligence is not what you know, but what you do when you don't." And by that measure Putin is an idiot.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 28 May 2026 - 03:14 AM

[Werthead]

Ukraine blew up two fuel tankers on the R-280 highway in a highly spectacular blast that blocked the whole road for several hours. A fairly visible demonstration of the increasingly desperate straits the Russians find themselves in.

[Garak]

Russian drone managed to hit an apartment building in Galati instead of whatever it was aimed at in Ukraine. Thankfully no deaths, just two wounded. Apparently we've told the Russians to close their consulate in Constanta.

The far right party AUR says this is all because of our weak interim government. Crickets over them voted against intercepting incoming shit entering our airspace (much sovereign, very wow) and they brought down our last government.

[Mentalist]

Might be time to declare the Danube Delta a no-fly zone, I'd think.

[Garak]

All our politicians managed so far is to announce a pay rase for themselves while lay off happen and the economy is tanking. That drone hit the wrong building honestly.

[Mentalist]

Nice hit on Taganrog last night.
2 anti-ship planes (Tu-142), a shadow fleet tanker, and a fuel base.

UAF middle-strike drones have been hitting fuel trucks in the outskirts of Simferopol' (capital of Crimea), as well as on the Alchevs'k- Debal'tseve road (Luhans'k Oblast). Previously, "Azov" showed its drones targeting trucks in Novoazovs'k (pre-war border between Ukraine and muscovy on the Azov Sea coast).

Additionally, DeepState is showing Ukrainian advance in the SE of Dnipropetrovs'k OIblast, where it wdges between Zaporizhya and Donet'sk Oblasts. A minor push so far, but the intent is obviously to disrupt the flank of the group that's trying to consolidate in Hulyaipole and push further W towards Orikhiv.

Meanwhile, the orcs are slowly inching into the outer outskirts of Konstyantynivka, trying to infiltrate in sufficient numbers to develop a constant stable presence in the built-up areas.

[Werthead]

Ukraine seems to have initiated counter-offensive actions in two new sectors, Oleksandrivka and Komar, near the Mokri Yaly River. The former offensive only began 36 hours ago and has seen Ukrainian forces reclaim 50 square kilometres (though some of that is through the grey zone, and the situation is fluid). Modest progress so far.

Ukrainian forces also reported in or beyond Berezyove, which is a significant amount of territory behind the main front line, suggesting Ukrainian forces have penetrated this sector in a similar way to where they did further SW a few months ago. An interesting area to attack, allowing pressure to build on the west flank of the main Russian offensive effort in Donetsk. Again, nothing to get too excited about until we see sustained pressure like we're seeing near Kamyanske.

Some Russian milbloggers worried about Ukraine reconning routes through the changed river course around the Dnipro, a result of the dam being blown up several years ago. They think Ukraine could find a way of crossing the river in force and attacking hard into the Russian lines in Kherson Oblast, which are underdefended at present. I am doubtful this is likely in the imminent future.

[Werthead]

Crimea's fuel shortages have reached crisis levels, with massive queues at almost every station. Some Russians saying the fuel resupply route via the bridge should be restarted, despite concerns over repeated damage to the bridge, as the resupply routes via the ferries and land bridge have both been effectively cut off by Ukrainian drones. Ai-95 gasoline can only be sold by coupons and Ai-92 is capped at 20 liters per driver.

Ukraine's drone units attached to 3rd Army Corps have initiated large-scale logistics interception missions in Luhansk Oblast, mirroring those further south. Using a mixture of drone types, they have struck targets across the oblast and across the Russian border. Their maximum penetration was the Izvaryne checkpoint, over 205km from the front line. Some recent strikes on the southern front have suggested that logistics interception and interdiction are now taking place over the 150km mark, further massively complicating Russian resupply and reinforcement operations.

The Ukrainian drone campaign against logistics across the front now includes remote-mining of the key highways. This means Russian units waiting until no drones are on radar before moving can still be destroyed or disabled. 

The Saratov oil refinery came under heavy Ukrainian drone attack today, with three confirmed hits damaging the primary oil processing unit and two storage tanks. The Lazarevo oil pumping station in Kirov has also been hit, part of the ongoing strategy to strike the bottlenecks on Russia's oil network.

Three Russian cargo ships have been disabled near Berdyansk this week.

A powerful hit, Ukraine destroyed two Tu-142 aircraft at Taganrog Airfield with drones.

Ukraine has applied for a licence to build Patriot missiles in Ukraine. This could include excess orders that could be sold back to the United States or key allies like Israel and the UAE.

[Werthead]

Ukraine is using Hornet drones to pummel logistics all over Crimea today. Apparently a high number of hits on fuel and ammunition dumps, and going after fuel tankers. Dzhankoi taking a lot of hits.

Fuel companies TES and ATAN have ceased providing fuel vouchers for use in Crimea.

France has seized the Russian shadow fleet tanker Tagor in the Atlantic.

Refinery operations in Russia are apparently at their lowest levels since 2010.

Confirmed battlefield casualties for Russia yesterday topped 1,400 for the first time in weeks. It should be noted these are casualties that can be confirmed on the day itself and do not include casualties identified only days or weeks later. The real number of casualties per month is running at between 35,000 and 40,000 once all sources (including Russian) are taken into account.

Russia used a Tor missile defence system to shoot down a Ukrainian drone. After missing (possibly twice), the Tor was destroyed by the exact same drone.

Russian soldiers complaining because body armour arriving at the front consists of missing metal plates, with the missing plates instead replaced by the infamously bullet-proof material known as "wood."

This post has been edited by Werthead: 01 June 2026 - 06:32 PM

[Mentalist]

UA continues to destroy orc logistics in the S. They've also hit a tug in Crimea and dry cargo hauler in Berdyans'k. Confirmation that the Novoshakhtinsk refinery in Rostov Oblast was hit by Long Neptune cruise missiles. This a big deal, b/c those are domestically made.

The orcs retaliate by lobbing a ton of missiles on Kyiv and Dnipro. 6 and 16 dead, respectively. The UAF intercepted 29/32 cruise missiles, but only 11 out of the total of 41 ballistic missiles (33 Iskanders and 8 Zircon anti-ship). While the US is supply blocked on Patriot missiles due to their little Hormuz excursion, ballistic missiles are a huge problem.
Since the enemy advance has been halted pretty much everywhere where they AREN'T already inside an urban buildup (Pokrovs'k and Konstyantynivka), lobbing hundred of millions worth of deadly explosives at civilians is all they can really do now. Last night's salvo was about a quarter of a billion dollars' worth.

[Abyss]

Werthead, on 01 June 2026 - 06:31 PM, said:

...
Russian soldiers complaining because body armour arriving at the front consists of missing metal plates, with the missing plates instead replaced by the infamously bullet-proof material known as "wood."

Next comes sand, then dry grass, possibly folded up old newspaper. Once we get to dryer lint and second hand stuffie toys maybe the soldiers will realize the government doesn't really care about them.

[Werthead]

Russia lost 517 fuel tanks, tankers and fuel storage depots yesterday, destroyed by Ukrainian drones, missiles and artillery. This is the highest 24-hour tally of the war, coming just after a string of days and weeks where the record was broken every single day. The war-long average is 65, which is huge but apparently sustainable with new trucks built an with d old ones yanked out of storage and reconditioned. 500+ a day is definitely not sustainable. SAM systems destroyed also reached a near-record high with 56 large units destroyed in March-April alone.

Russian milbloggers are using the term "zugzwang" to describe the current Russian strategic position. That's a German term for a chess game where your opponent puts you in a position where any move you make is the wrong one, but you have no choice but to move.

Ukraine apparently now has over 300 dedicated demining platforms, some capable of clearing entire farm fields full of mines in an afternoon. Ukraine has been using them to clear some minefields on the front where they've rolled back Russian forces, at least partially solving a problem that stymied their summer 2023 offensive.

Ukrainian drones continuing to hit Dzhankoi in central-northern Crimea, this time going after rail infrastructure. Ukraine is stepping up efforts to cut off resupply routes to the entire Crimean Peninsula.

ISW shows a net loss to Russia of 241 square kilometres of territorial control from December 2025 to May 2026.

Putin's original plan to reduce defence spending in 2026 has apparently been scrapped, and he has asked for further cuts to be made to non-defence areas of the economy. Some defence officials have requested an increase to the defence budget. Putin apparently remains confident of the war ending in the near-to-medium term.

Ukraine has advanced on the Kotlyne axis, with forces moving back towards Pokrovsk rather than withdrawing away from it. Possibly advances in the same area at Bilytske and Rodynske, but marginal gains so far.

Some interesting claims that Russian units manning the banks of the Dnipro in Kherson Oblast have either retreated or asked to retreat, citing Ukrainian drone dominance up to 30km from the river banks. Supplying the forward Russian units is hard and considerable losses have been sustained. Russia won't let any units withdraw, believing (probably correctly) that if they fall back, Ukrainian units will cross the river unopposed and they can then begin the rollup of the land corridor and complete the encircling of Crimea.

A major Ukrainian drone strike is underway, targeting Crimea, the western oblasts and the Moscow region.

Apparently yesterday and today's strikes on Ukraine brought the total number of Shahed attacks on Ukraine to over 100,000. Based on current information, around 30,000 of these drones were decoys. Over 85,000 drones were jammed or shot down before they could reach the target, though in some cases debris or the fall of the warhead did inflict damage on different targets.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 02 June 2026 - 09:56 PM