[Mentalist]

to be fair, the reason for fibre spike is the data centre boom, so this isn't China being malicious to the war specifically. It's just another aspect of AI disrupting economy.

Hungary let the 7 bank workers go, but confiscated the money and gold they were transferring from Austria, with accusations of money laundering. I expect the BS from Hungary to continue throughout the next month, as their election tensions build up.

[Werthead]

An attempted Russian counterattack against the Zaporizhzhia offensive has failed, with over 300 Russians injured and around 30 killed. Ukraine continues to make gains on this sector, though the pace has slowed.

Unconfirmed reports that the last remaining Russian units in Kupyansk have surrendered, meaning the town is once again fully secured by Ukraine (for I believe the third time in this war).

Sweden has seized a sanctioned Russian shadow fleet vessel.

[Werthead]

Telegram reports show the Russian situation on the front in some sectors is dire, due to Ukraine regaining drone superiority. Logistics within 15km of the front is non-existent, and it can take Russian troops to up to four days to reach the front line from where they are dropped off, as they have to take cover every few minutes from drones. Some troops report leaving their dugout basically means a 60%+ chance of being killed or injured.

Myrnohrad, which Russian recently secured (at least partially), is particularly dangerous. Several vehicle columns have been destroyed there recently by drones.

Ukraine has scored a new record by destroying 2,558 Russian drones in a single day.

A Russian unit was cut off on the Zaporizhzhia front without the unit realising. The battalion commander got confused about soldiers approaching, angrily walked towards them without realising they were Ukrainian and was promptly shot (unclear if fatally).

Ukraine has devastated a drone storage facility at Donetsk Airport, hitting it with multiple ATACMS and SCALP missiles. Not only was the facility heavily damaged, they killed and wounded multiple senior staff from Russia's Alabuga drone factory in Tatarstan who were visiting the facility. Ukraine had previously destroyed this facility last year, so the Russians rebuilt it...on the exact same spot. Stunningly intelligent move.

Ukraine's FP-2 drones are increasing their warhead to 158kg of high explosive. The FP-7 drone, with 300km range, has completed field testing wand will enter large-scale combat operations in the next three months. The FP-9, an ATACMS and Iskander-beater with a range of 850km, a larger warhead than the US system and costing significantly less, will begin field testing shortly. The FP-9 is designed to hit targets with a closing velocity of 1,000m/s, faster than the Iskander.

11 countries have asked for Ukrainian air defence advice and assistance, including the United States. Some reports that Ukrainian interceptor drone teams have arrived in Jordan and set up defences for American forces based in the country, and are teaching the Americans how to defend themselves. It's unclear if the Americans have shown gratitude.

Heavy Ukrainian attacks on Crimea have destroyed four radar systems.

The Black Sea Institute of Strategic Studies believes that Russia will transfer several missile corvettes from the Black and Caspian Seas to the Baltic to act as escorts for tankers. Apparently they will "threaten the Swede" into making sure passage through the Danish Straits is not contested.

[Mentalist]

it would be nice to have less ships potentially lobbing Kalibrs from the sea.

with all the drone strikes on Crimea, and on the smaller transport crafts, the MoD has upped their ships/boats tally to 31. If they end up taking some ships out, we might soon be able to talk about half of the Blck Sea Fleet being taken out.

The orcs continue probing around the border in Sumy Oblast, trying to set up observation posts and forward positions cross the border. Nothing big, but they are spreading their "buffer zones" 2-3 km deep from the border, which is concerning.

Since putler came out and featured in a video talking about how TG is a foreign tool, and using it can put troops in danger, the orcs are cracking down on advertising revenue from TG channels. Which basically means that shutting it down is, in fact, inevitable. We'll have to see how their comms fare without it.

[Werthead]

The Moscow region has had very spotty internet for 5 days, which is interesting.

The Institute for the Study of War has said that Russia has had to dig deep into its strategic reserve to send reinforcements to the crumbling Zaporizhzhia front and shore up the rot on the Kupyansk front. In some areas, Russian units are being told to simultaneously defend a front from a significant offensive and advance without support, resulting in the unit either not moving in confusion or moving out of cover and being destroyed.

The ISW conclusion is that Russia's manpower limitations have now reached a crux and Russia must either decide to concentrate forces on one big offensive on one sector of the front, mobilise hundreds of thousands more troops or abandon plans for a Spring 2026 offensive and go over to the defensive along most of the line. Or carry on as they are now and risk an entire front just collapsing.

[Mentalist]

multiple missile strikes on Kremniy (silicon) El factory in Bryans'k. It makes semiconductor components for missiles.

*supposedly* it were Storm Shadows. One workshop got hit hard, including an accounting department, with multiple casualties.

Syrsky claims that "almost all of Dnipropetrovs'k Oblast' has been liberated in the latest push". While nice, most likely not 100% accurate, b/c in most cases, "liberated" territory actually just becomes "grey", without actual firm control.

The orcs continue their incursions along the border in Sumy oblast, trying to set up their "buffer zone". No incursions are deeper than 2-3 km from the border, but they're putting in efforts to shore up control, which has potential to become concerning.

Z-heads also whine about an upcoming UA offensive in late spring. I choose to remain skeptical for now.

[Werthead]

ISW is saying that Russia may expand its territorial demands in Ukraine as part of any peace preconditions, possibly demanding the rest of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in addition to maintaining a buffer zone along the borders of at least Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. The expansion of demands may then be used as a casus belli for what now appears increasingly likely to be a mass mobilisation order in May, despite the immense risks that presents.

At the same time, Putin has apparently removed several military commanders with ties to Shoigu, possibly fearing a military coup. Shoigu himself remains safe, for now.

[Mentalist]

residents of Moscow are whining about shutdowns of mobile internet in the city.

The rest of the country is less than sympathetic, since these rollouts have been ongoing for the past 4-6 months already.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

 Werthead, on 12 March 2026 - 10:45 PM, said:

ISW is saying that Russia may expand its territorial demands in Ukraine as part of any peace preconditions, possibly demanding the rest of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia Oblasts in addition to maintaining a buffer zone along the borders of at least Sumy and Kharkiv Oblasts. The expansion of demands may then be used as a casus belli for what now appears increasingly likely to be a mass mobilisation order in May, despite the immense risks that presents.

Trump may end up using Iran as an excuse to lift all sanctions on Russian oil and then use Russia's agreement to a "peace deal" they know Ukraine will never accept as an excuse to refuse to reimpose them... "Russia wants peace, it's that warmonger Zelensky who's the problem".

[Werthead]

Continuous drone strikes in the Moscow region have shut down its airports. Mobile fire groups are circling the capital and citizens in Moscow are being treated to the sound of gunfire as they try to bring down incoming drones. There are some indications the Ukrainians are targeting the ring of S-300 and S-400 AA systems circling the capital, which have recently been augmented by Pantsirs mounted on towers.

Milbloggers are divided on whether Russia is concentrating forces in Donetsk Oblast for the campaign against Slovyansk and Kramatorsk, which will be the most daunting offensive of the war, or in Zaporizhzhia to resist Ukrainian advances there.

Widespread fury in Russia about the blocking of Telegram and other social media channels, with some pro-Russian commentators suddenly rounding on the Kremlin and Putin with fury (mostly from outside Russia, including some based in Italy and the Gulf). We haven't seen that before.

Ukrainian forces are continuing to attack into Prymorske and Stepnohirsk, on the Dnipro banks, and Lukyanivske further upriver. The objective here is to push Russian forces in western Zaporizhzhia back south towards Vasylivka, control of which would give Ukraine impressive options for a larger-scaled counteroffensive. However, nobody seems to be realistically expecting that level of breakthrough. 

Some indications that Russia may resume using armoured vehicles for assaults on the front. Unarmoured assaults are triggering such casualties that even if Russia mobilised another 200,000 men, it would be unsustainable. Even using armour is a bit questionable, but it would at lest reduce casualties and improve chances of medevac.

The Russian offensive in Donetsk is absurdly daunting. They actually need to secure control full control of the Pokrovsk area (still not achieved), regain the initiative on the Dobropilla front just to the north, and then advance on Raiske to complete the encirclement of Kostiantynivka. That's a massive task in itself. Russian forces have reached the south-eastern urban parts of Kostiantynivka but have already been held up by resistance. They need the Ukrainian units that re-infiltrated Chasiv Yar just to the north-east to be neutralised to close off the flank, but somehow that's not happening. Russia would then have to advance through Kostiantynivka, Oleksievo-Drujkivka and Drujivka proper just to reach Kramatorsk, which would be a bloodbath. After a couple of years, they'd probably have to repeat the task in Slovyansk. The Russians want to make that easier by taking Lyman north-east of Slovyansk (which they've been trying to do for the better part of three years at this point and failing), then Donetske and Raigorodok and Mykolaikva, allowing them to assault Slovyansk from the north and east, possibly simultaneously with Kramatorsk.

Bearing in mind that Slovyasnsk and Kramatorsk individually are much, much bigger than Pokrovsk, Bakhmut, Soledar, Toretsk etc. This is going to be insane. I can't see how Russia can do it without that full-scale mobilisation of half a million or more troops.

[Mentalist]

Z-heads are actively whining that UAF managed to regain initiative in middle-strike drone warfare. Drones operating on higher frequencies are able to hunt down enemy logistics up to 50 km beyond the frontline. And specialist drone interceptors are hunting down enemy observer drones, weakening their coverage.

Still waiting for this advantage to become qualitative, where the UAF can actively push the enemy back in meaningful fashion. But if the current trends continue, and the orcs don't drastically up their recruitment efforts, we might end up with some really positive news by late summer. Lots of "ifs" with all this, ofc, and trump's middle eastern excursion isn't really helping.

[Cause]

It still blows my mind that this war isn’t seen as a bigger deal than it is. Russian casualties are approaching 1.3 million (350k dead) and Ukraine may be approaching 600k casualties (130k dead). These are demographic changing numbers. 1~% of Russians and Ukrainians have become casualties. As a percentage of military aged men it must be even higher. Casualties is also such a broad term but a not insignificant number beyond the dead must be life altering injuries of missing limbs or similar.

The biggest war since ww2 and, though perhaps it shouldn’t matter but it does, it’s taking place in Western Europe no less. I don’t watch cable news but I do regularly visit the major news networks websites, I follow several news feeds on YouTube and random news always breaks through on instagram. This forum thread however remains the only consistent reminder for me this war is happening.

In 12 months I understand there has been an ~1% change in territory? Diplomacy has stalled. I think I may even have this exact post 12 months ago. The only thing that changes is the number of dead. Given the costs involved victory, as the term is understood, is no longer possible. What is the point of this?

Iran is spoken about in terms of gas’s prices but I feel the discussion of how Ukraine affects food or energy prices has mostly disappeared.

[Whisperzzzzzzz]

 Cause, on 16 March 2026 - 07:36 PM, said:

It still blows my mind that this war isn’t seen as a bigger deal than it is. Russian casualties are approaching 1.3 million (350k dead) and Ukraine may be approaching 600k casualties (130k dead). These are demographic changing numbers. 1~% of Russians and Ukrainians have become casualties. As a percentage of military aged men it must be even higher. Casualties is also such a broad term but a not insignificant number beyond the dead must be life altering injuries of missing limbs or similar.

The biggest war since ww2 and, though perhaps it shouldn’t matter but it does, it’s taking place in Western Europe no less. I don’t watch cable news but I do regularly visit the major news networks websites, I follow several news feeds on YouTube and random news always breaks through on instagram. This forum thread however remains the only consistent reminder for me this war is happening.

In 12 months I understand there has been an ~1% change in territory? Diplomacy has stalled. I think I may even have this exact post 12 months ago. The only thing that changes is the number of dead. Given the costs involved victory, as the term is understood, is no longer possible. What is the point of this?

Iran is spoken about in terms of gas’s prices but I feel the discussion of how Ukraine affects food or energy prices has mostly disappeared.

No US draft, no US boots on the ground, yes netflix.

This post has been edited by Whisperzzzzzzz: 16 March 2026 - 08:18 PM

[Werthead]

The imminent closure of Telegram has made a whole bunch of Z-bloggers really come out swinging.

They're now saying that Ukraine can interdict logistics at will in some places fifty kilometres behind the line, making any resupply and forward movement impossible. The only area that seems to be relatively free of that is in Donetsk around the Pokrovsk front, but even that is getting harder. Russian counter-drone actions are minimal and Russian drone teams have been increasingly shaken down and sent to the front to die in meat grinder attacks. Only the most elite and high-profile Russian units have managed to stay out of it.

Basically the conditions set on a small scale in Kharkiv in summer 2022 and Kherson in autumn 2022 that led to entire fronts collapsing now existing across more than half of the entire front. Ukraine doesn't have enough troops to push across the entire front, but where they do push, the same conditions could develop and force Russian withdrawals, as we have seen in eastern Zaporizhzhia and are now starting to see in the south-west.

Simultaneously, Russia has accumulated significant reservices for a big push on the fortress belt, and to a lesser extent reinforcements in Zaporizhzhia to try to stop the current withdrawal and push back towards Zaporizhzhia city. Some rumours Putin has demanded that Zaporizhzhia city be taken. With a population of 700,000, it would be the largest city contested in the war to date and the urban fighting to take it would be hell on Earth. But Putin seems to think that he needs a really big city rather than all the small little industrial towns he's liberated (by annihilating them) to help sell the semblance of a victory. If this new idea turns into an obsession, again diverting resources from what should be the main focus in Donetsk, that could blow back on him, especially since Russia is simultaneously pursuing offensive operations in Kharkiv and Sumy they can't really afford to undertake.

Russian media channels have apparently proposed the formation of the "Narva's People's Republic" in Estonia, but so far the Russian-speaking population in Narva seems unenthused.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 16 March 2026 - 10:46 PM

[Werthead]

Absolutely wild claims that a large-scale Russian counter-offensive on the Zaporizhzhia-Donetsk front (almost from Hulaiyapole to Pokrovsk, which is about a thir dof the entire front) was halted primarily by unmanned systems, some of them operating autonomously, with over 1,700 Russian casualties in a 24-hour period. The Russian reports on Telegram are absolutely stunned, saying they were ordered onto the offensive without artillery support and only minimal drones, and were then met by a wall of enemy drones. Apparently the advance was ordered under fog cover but the Ukrainian optics could just see through it.

[Werthead]

Apparently Russia has internally set targets of 410,000 new recruits in 2026. This is basically the same target as in 2025. This strongly suggests that Putin has bottled on declaring a larger mobilisation.

Given the dramatic rise in monthly Russian casualties in late 2025 and sustained through early 2026, this could see the Russians end the year with a significantly smaller army than it started the year with, unlike last year where they just about managed to end where they started.

Russian push on Lyman resulting in about 300 casualties and 70 (!) destroyed vehicles in the space of a few hours, though some of those vehicles may have been quad bikes and (er) horses.

[Mentalist]

Ka-52 "Alligator" helicopter was intercepted by a drone. The pilots ejected, but then were also droned to death.

UAF HQ confirmed that the recent hit on aircraft repair plant in Novgorod Oblast' targeted another A-50 "flying radar" plane. There was also a major hit on the Almaz-Antey subsidiary in Sevastopol, which is responsible for repair and maintenance of the anti-air defense systems.

21 drones were attacking moscow. While intercepting them, the orcs shot down a 2-person light plane, that was supposedly participating in defense.

Syrsky stated that just under 4.5 k orc casualties were noted during their "grand attack" attempt between Tue-Thur. Apparently, they tried to use the poor weather conditions to launch multiple assaults to try to achieve some surprise breakthroughs. Things didn't really work out.

One of the prominent Z-heads confirmed that the orc resistance pocket in Kup'yans'k hospital district has been eliminated, with no survivors. This should be the last of them.

France has detained their third shadow fleet tanker.


lawyer activist Illya Remeslo, who became famous by writing criminal complaints about Navalny, recently came out with a series of TG posts accusing putler of being a war criminal (for prosecuting the war poorly), and an embezzling thief. After the muscovites picked their collective jaws off the floor (during which time he gave interviews to several emigre opposition YT channels, including Khodorkovsky.Live, which is designated a terrorist organization in Moscow) he was committed to a mental institution. Since his sister and one of this parents are psychiatrists, this could be a way to lay low, rather than soviet-style "punitive psychiatry", but not sure. The story is weird AF.

There's been serious unrest in Novosibirsk where farmers have had their livestock being put down en masse with little to no explanation over the past 2 weeks. Today the Oblast finally announced state of veterinarian emergency. this happened after the Oblast Minister of Agriculture was caught on video running away from a distraught farmer, who had her 200 heads of livestock put down while she was out running errands, with no warning. The minister took his leave off camere into the men's room. But the woman continued complaining (and today she was also arrested for staging an un-sanctioned picket).

While the orc cabinet is bracing for a windfall of oil profits, the systemic economy continues to unravel, ever so gradually. Cracking down on internet (disrupting the service sector that's been progressively digitizing over the past 2 decades) should help with that.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 20 March 2026 - 10:43 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine has secured full control over Myrne on the eastern Zaporizhzhia front, after some weeks of it being in the grey zone. Ukrainian forces continue to make gains in this sector amidst some claims that multiple Russian formations have been completely surrounded. Ukraine has now achieved its largest territorial gains/regains in over two years.

The last Russian units in Kupyansk have apparently been completely neutralised. The last group refused to surrender and so had to be eliminated with drones. Kupyansk is now a Russia-free zone, though how long before they try to go again is another question.

Russian Telegram reports aghast at a Russian "road of death" near Boikivka, on the Pokrovsk front. Sixty Russan bodies have been identified along one stretch of road.

Russia is continuing trying to advance on the Pokrovsk front and at Lyman, but have been taking absurd losses. Ukraine estimate Russia may have sustained almost 2,000 casualties in one two-day period.

Ukraine has carried out one of the most successful single-hit refinery attacks of the war, damaging or destroying 18 fuel storage tanks (!) in one go at the Labinsk refinery in Krasnodar. The Saratove refinery was also hit, with a secondary oil processing unit and large fuel storage tank damaged. 

Ukrainian drones hit Crimea hard. Russian units complained about a lack of anti-drone missiles or heavy machine guns, resorting to small arms.

Russian intelligence leak that Russia has been mulling over staging an assassination attempt on Viktor Orban to influence the upcoming elections.

A fire at LPP Holding, a defence contractor in Pardubice, Czech Republic who produce drones for Ukraine, is being investigated as a possible terrorist attack.

Ukrainian drone defence teams in the Gulf have reportedly already shot down multiple incoming Iranian drones, and demonstrated to the Gulf countries how that it cost-effectively done. Allegedly one Gulf state had fired eight Patriot interceptors to down one Shahed, a ratio the Ukrainian team found to be "insane."

[Mentalist]

Big strike on the Primorsk oil terminal on the Baltic Sea. Might halt orc oil exports for a bit.

[Werthead]

The number of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Russian territory has exceeded the number of Russian long-range strikes on Ukrainian territory. This may be down to the successful Ukrainian destruction of several drone factories. Russia may also be stockpiling drones for a large-scale attack. However, Russia has also been back-selling upgunned Shaheds to Iran, to the fury of some Russian soldiers on the front line.

Russian soldiers who witnessed/survived the crushing defeat at Lyman have started telling their stories about what happened. The Russians advanced with basically no artillery cover and limited drones; the Ukrainians had a lot of artillery and far more drones. As the Russians advanced out of the fire support of what drones they did have, the Ukrainians deployed armour to meet them, so Russian infantry was engaging Ukrainian tanks and IFVs with small arms (they had some AT weapons, but not enough). One Russian infantryman was screaming that each soldier needed to scrape together 20-30,000 rubles per attack to buy decent equipment just for one operation, and the donations that used to flow freely from back home have dried up. "The Ukrainians fucked us up like pigs at the slaughterhouse."

Ukraine is deploying 15,000 STRILA interceptor drones funded by Germany, each capable of shooting down Shahed drones at a low cost. The STRILAs do not use GPS and have EW-resistant systems, and act as reverse-mines, waiting until an enemy drone enters the sky above them and launching upwards to engage with limited reaction time.

Russian media is now reporting of the need for an intervention in Narva, the town on the border between Russia and Estonia. Some media are saying that if Russia takes Narva, Estonia and Europe will not dare to intervene.

Ukrainian intelligence has exposed a Hungarian spy network operating in Zakarpattia Oblast, the far western oblast on the border with Hungary. The handler for the network has been arrested, and was apparently collecting data on Ukrainian air defence positions, military deployments and local sentiment, including the reaction to Hungarian troops entering Ukrainian territory.