[Werthead]

Israel has transferred two Patriot air defence systems to Ukraine, along with 90 missiles. These are older platforms, possibly from the 2000s or earlier, so need some upgrading before they can enter service. The transfer was authorised by the USA. Four Kinzhal missiles were intercepted today by Patriots.

A Ukrainian special forces operation has destroyed or disabled two Russian fighter aircraft, a MiG-31 and Su-34.

Ukraine is unleashing very heavy artillery, HIMARS, drone and glide bomb attacks on Russian forces on the border of Sumy Oblast, and more gathering in Kursk Oblast behind them. Heavy damage to forwards logistics bases, troop concentrations and vehicles. Western analysis is split on whether the incursion into Sumy is a serious effort or a major diversion from the main front in Donetsk. The main concern in Sumy is not a breakthrough but Russian forces getting just close enough to Sumy to be able to hit it with tube artillery and short-range drones, subjecting it to the same kind of bombardment as Kharkiv and Kherson have been repelling for years.

A Ukrainian naval drone has attacked Russian special forces deployed on a gas platform in the Black Sea.

479 drones were launched at Ukraine last night, the largest number in a single attack (breaking several recent records).

[Werthead]

Russian casualties passed 1 million today, according to Ukrainian and some western estimates (based on intercepted Russian communications and analysis of funerals in Russia). That's 1 million killed, wounded, captured or deserted in total since 2022 (and may not even include casualties from the so-called Luhansk and Donetsk Peoples' Republics). KIA is estimated at between 250,000 and 310,000 or thereabouts.

Ukraine has launched what appears to be a focused counter-attack on the Sumy salient. This is something we saw before from them in Toretsk and Vovchansk, holding forces back and then hitting Russia as their effort is cresting and they are low on reinforcements. So far five settlements have been liberated and more are being contested.

19 regions of Russia lost mobile phone connections due to a concerted cyberattack.

Ukraine has deployed Bulava, a loitering drone designed to improve upon the Russian Lancet. The Bulava has already been field-tested on the battlefield.

Britain is discussing transferring Warrior fighting vehicles to Ukraine.

The Serbian President has visited Ukraine and offered to supply Ukraine with the money and resources to rebuild a Ukrainian city after the war ends. This appears to be part of a concerted effort by President Vucic to appease both sides during the conflict. Meanwhile, Hungary has been reprimanded for carrying out what appears to be military reconnaissance along its border with Ukraine. Hungary invading Ukraine is fantastically unlikely, but it might be an effort to force Ukraine to put more troops on the border with Hungary than is really necessary.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 12 June 2025 - 06:37 PM

[Macros]

Is the EU so badly set up that Orban can't be fucking smacked into line for shit like that?

[Werthead]

A close-range dogfight between two Su-25s over Donetsk Oblast, ending with one of the fighters being destroyed. Both aircraft were Russian though, so lots of confused people looking on. One suggestion it was a drill and one of the aircraft disintegrated due to excessive maneuvers. Baffling.

There is fierce fighting south-west of Pokrovsk, where the front comes within a few kilometres of the border with Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. The Russians seem to want to establish a toehold in that area. So far Ukraine is holding them back. It'd be a symbolic move, but would effectively complete the Russian occupation of southern Donetsk Oblast.

Fierce fighting has also resumed on the Lyman front, where not much progress has been made for some time, but the Ukrainian 63rd Brigade has reported a surprising, sharp rise in Russian soldiers surrendering. Some, mostly newer recruits, take part in a few attacks before giving up.

Possibly partisan activity in Makeevka, Donetsk Oblast, with a Russian military convoy attacked and destroyed.

Ukrainian commentators bemoaning the Israeli attack on Iran did not happen two years ago, when it would have likely seriously damaged Russia's supply of Shahed drones. However, Russia has since opened Shahed production sites in Tatarstan, so can build its own at pace (though engines apparently are still coming from Iran direct).

[Werthead]

The main Shahed production factory in Tatarstan has taken a drone hit. It's over 700 miles from the Ukrainian border.

This sounds a bit conspiracy-ish, but apparently an Israeli company has rented out a large amount of office space in Kyiv and paid a large amount of money for it, but has not moved in and is unlikely to move in whilst the conflict is continuing. Some suggestion that Israel has clandestinely paid Ukraine for intelligence information on Iranian drones, long-range drone tactics and their use of intelligence on the ground to launch drones from inside hostile territory. The recent transfer of two Israeli Patriot batteries to Ukraine (which an official spokesman denied, despite everyone else and their aunt confirming it's happened) might be also part of this.

Ukrainian intelligence agents have reportedly infiltrated Kaliningrad and disabled an electricity power station.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 15 June 2025 - 08:05 PM

[Cause]

I would be suprised if Israel and Ukraine haven’t been talking. The second Iran got involved in supplying drones Israel would have been interested. It had to balance that against Russias presence in Syria but not any loner. Same with South Korea, the moment North Korean troops hit the battlefield South Koreas notice got much more intense.

Operation spiderweb and what happened in Tehran are very similarly. Both however are over a year in the making. It could be convergent evolution of drone warfare or it could suggest an exchange of ideas. Impossible to say. The fact that it’s so similar and so close together in time is remarkable though. Conspiracy theories will spontaneous develope.

It’s interesting that Israel would part with two patriots before striking Iran. It would suggest that it’s outdated in regards to the iron dome or Israel was so confident they didn’t need it or perhaps they just thought canceling the exchange would tip their hand.

The Israeli conflict has probably been one of the worst things for Ukraine in the way that it sucked so much attention away from their own conflict. Not necessarily government or military attention but the attention of everyday people.

The drone warfare aspect is very frightening. It suggests that foreign actors, terrorist and even homegrown threats can create deadly attacks from anywhere thanks to ubiquitous drone technology, remote controls and AI. Already I see Americans shouting about Chinese owned land near US bases. I could probably buy a ship drone from Costco and attach a home made explosive and fly it into a crowd. These drone nests could be set up over years and perhaps decades in advance either as a just in case contingency or as part of a long term plan.

How would Taiwan hypothetically be able to ensure that no such drone nest is built on the island. How will Israel stop Iran doing it to them? Government backed teams will have access to all the drones, drone parts they will want. The software is probably the easiest component. I suspect it’s already monitored but ordering too many of anything drone related will send up red flags in databases but I suspect this is easily circumvented.

Frightening new chapter for us all.

[Tapper]

Maybe I am too optimistic, but ECM and interception methods seem to catch up extremely quickly over the course of the war in Ukraine, to the point where what was cutting edge last year is easily neutralised now. I guess the main fear is the usage of drones for terror, but isn’t terror anyway the use of mundane means to create mass casualties? You can still buy gas canisters or buy demolitions explosives, despite how easy it is to turn these into something much more sinister.

[Werthead]

A leaked FSB memo has reportedly called China "the enemy" of Russia and expressed concern about Beijing's espionage, stealing military secrets, and redrawing maps of Siberia to show Chinese place names. Some Russian Telegram commentators have been saying for a while that they were worried about Russia because a "Belarus to China", and many are unhappy with Xi's big words of support not translating into firmer support. Areas where China is working with Russia, like expanding exploration of the Arctic, seems more to be for China's geopolitical position than for helping an ally.

A number of Russian units previously identified on the ground in Sumy Oblast are now back in Kursk Oblast. This is unlikely to be a troop rotation so early in the operation, suggesting instead they've had to retire due to heavy casualties.

Russian air defence seems to have been thinned out considerably along most of the front, allowing Ukrainian MiG-29s to directly attack Russian positions in Kherson. Ukraine may even be starting to achieve air superiority over some parts of the front, with Russia unwilling to bring forward increasingly rare S-400s and S-300s for fear of losing them. 

A Ukrainian drone team destroyed a Russian BM-21 Grad launcher and intercepted communications saying that the Grad had been equipped with chemical munitions, which had sprayed over the crew during the explosion.

Ukraine has many more Russian PoWs than Russia has Ukrainian PoWs, so Russia has suggested swapping kidnapped Ukrainian children for Russian PoWs, which is contemptible, but at least one way of getting them back.

Maksim Oreshnik, deputy head of the Russian presidential administration, has expressed concern over the Russian economy. The Russian economy is now growing at the lowest rate since February 2022, and the Russian Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting believes that Russia's civilian sector is already in recession this year. To make up for Gazprom losses, the Russian government is planning to increase industrial gas tariffs twice this year, raise income tax to 25% and introducing progressive personal income tax scale for high incomes. 

[Werthead]

The Russian shadow freighter Adalynn has been rammed in the Gulf of Oman and burst into flames. The Liberian freighter Front Eagle, filled with fuel and bound for China, was responsible (and appears to be safe).

Ukraine has suffered one of the biggest drone and missile attacks of the war, suffering 14 dead, the highest total for months. Odesa also suffered heavy hits. Over 400 drones and 30 cruise missiles were launched. Russia is suffering massive internet blackouts, some claiming a Ukrainian cyberattack in response, some saying it's an attempt to pre-emptively stop Ukraine using local services to launch drone attacks of their own.

Ukrainian forces counter-attacking on the Kramatorsk and Kupyansk fronts using heavy artillery barrages. Nine Russian infantry positions, two drone control points and three infantry groups have been neutralised. Ukrainian artillery also hit Russian forces at Stara Zburivka in occupied Kherson, SW of Kherson City. Ukraine has suddenly stepped up artillery fire after many months of more carefully hoarding their shell supplies.

Russian advisors in Transnistria have sounded an alarm bell, complaining that the local economy has collapsed, gas supplies are cut off and they can no longer pay security forces. Moldova and Romania continue offering to connect Transnistria to western energy supplies.

North Korea has confirmed it is sending 1,000 sappers and 5,000 military construction personnel to help Russian rebuilding efforts in Kursk Oblast. Hmm.

[Cause]

Werthead, on 17 June 2025 - 06:00 PM, said:

North Korea has confirmed it is sending 1,000 sappers and 5,000 military construction personnel to help Russian rebuilding efforts in Kursk Oblast. Hmm.

North Korea already supplies unskilled labor to Russia and China. Now that they are getting away with sending their military forces to assist in wars with surprisingly little pushback I wonder if this will become even more normalized. NK could essentially become a slave labor export state. Cuba actually also does this with skilled labor and essentially sells year long contracts of Doctors to South Africa.

North Korea could end up selling laborer's and mercenaries to hot spots all over the world. Is this realistic or is Ukraine a once off.

[Werthead]

Russian forces have attempted to resume the offensive on the Siversk front but seem to be desperately short on manpower. The 114th Territorial Defence Brigade was rather bemused when their position was attacked by just four Russians on motorbikes with no additional support. The Russians were eliminated by drones before they got anywhere nearby.

Ukraine defeated a major Russian attack near Yablonivka on the Kostyantynivka front. 23 vehicles including tanks were destroyed.

A Canadian Roshel Senator vehicle retrieved Ukrainian soldiers from the battlefield whilst under heavy fire. One of its wheels was blown off, but it was able to evacuate on three wheels and returned to base, in some need of repair.

Keith Kellogg is to visit Belarus as they believe Lukashenko can act as a mediator to end the war. By which, I'm assuming they've never met Lukashenko or know anything at all about him.

Putin offered to mediate in the Israeli-Iranian conflict, Trump told him to "mediate himself" out of the Ukraine conflict first.

The International Economic Forum is taking place in St. Petersburg today, with Russian businessmen eager to welcome (check notes) the economic delegate of the Taliban.

Vladimir Milov has confirmed Maksim Oreshnik's analysis that the the Russian war economy growth model "has exhausted itself." Russia can no longer grow its way out of its economic problems through expansion of the war economy as it has exhausted manpower, capital and resource reserves. The only fresh source of input is from outside the country, hence their frantic pivoting to North Korea.

ETA: One claim of a mass surrender event on the Lyman front. An entire Russian assault group apparently threw down their weapons and surrendered rather than die assaulting dug-in Ukrainian positions. The straw that broke the camel's back was the group begging for supplies to be dropped by drone over the radio, so the drone came over and dropped...a Russian flag. They were asked to carry it on their "final assault" on the Ukrainian position.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 June 2025 - 06:23 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine appears to have taken more territory in Kursk Oblast, south of Tyotkino.

Unconfirmed and wild report that a Ukrainian sabotage group has crossed the border from Kazakhstan into Orenberg Oblast, using drones to launch a surprise short-range attack on a Russian Strategic Missile Forces base (probably not an actual nuke silo).

Russia has proposed new talks with Ukraine in Istanbul after June 22nd. Presumably this date is related to the start of Operation Barbarossa, the German invasion of the Soviet Union in 1941.

Heavy fighting near Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast. A Ukrainian defensive position eliminated 18 Russian armoured vehicles and 13 motorcycles.

Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov has reiterated that Russia is now on the edge of a recession.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 19 June 2025 - 04:05 PM, said:

Russian Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov has reiterated that Russia is now on the edge of a recession.

Will be interesting to see what happens when the economy hits the wall which seems likely to happen this autumn or winter. Hopefully that can get the insanity to stop but I'm not counting on it.

This post has been edited by Chance: 19 June 2025 - 04:14 PM

[Werthead]

First Russian case of front-line cannibalism reported. A starving Russian soldier shot his comrade and ate his remains over two weeks. He listed his comrade as missing in an attack before the truth was uncovered.

The head of the Duma's Budget Committee Andrey Makarov has sounded an alarm bell at the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, stating that the Russian Federation is following the same path as the USSR. The economic requirements of working-class Russians are increasing at a rate that the economy cannot meet, as it is focused on war production and the underlying foundations are not strong enough to support it. The Ministry of Finance also confirmed that Russia's National Welfare Fund is less than a third of what it was when the war started, and could be depleted this year. Russia's debt crisis is now growing, with 15% of all Russian businesses now in default, or about to get there because they cannot cover their interest payments. Andrey Kostin, head of VSB (Russia's second-largest bank), and Alexander Shokhin, head of the RSPP, both backed up the assessment of an impending crisis.

This seemed to annoy Putin, who simply said that a recession "can't be allowed to happen." He also made comments suggesting that he wants to see all of Ukraine surrender, rather than just the annexed regions so far.

Ukrainian fighters from the 65th Mechanised Brigade carried out a tactical strike using drones, destroying a Russian Garmon radar system on the Zaporizhzhia front.

22 Russian soldiers on the Pokrovsk front apparently just gave up and surrendered, in a pattern we've seen previously on the Lyman front. Some Telegram comments about Russian soldiers recently released from Ukrainian captivity looking very fit and healthy (unlike some Ukrainian POWs looking like they've just stepped out of a Jewish internment camp in 1945) may have convinced serving soldiers that surrender is preferable to get blown to pieces on the front.

Current analysis is that Pokrovsk is making up the majority of Russian combat operations, roughly a third in January-June. Kursk was the second-heaviest area of fighting, following by Novopavlivka, Lyman and Toretsk.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has (several days ago) destroyed a significant drone factory owned by Kronstadt JSC at Dubna, 115km from Moscow. The factory took nine direct hits, with no air defence in evidence. It appears most of the drones flew straight in through skylights and directly detonated over or on the production lines. This was a production line for Orion drones carrying X-UAV anti-vehicle missiles. Kronstadt JSC is very close to bankruptcy. Ukraine has also damaged an electronics factory in Cheboksary, over 1,000km from the front line.

A Russian fuel train has in Donetsk Oblast has been destroyed. Eleven fuel tanks are burning, and the railway track has been severed, possibly in several places. 

Lukashenko has met Kellogg in Minsk and discussed how to end the war in Ukraine, Belarus's ties to China, and improving US-Belarus relations. Lukashenko also agreed to release 14 political prisoners (several of them are already free and have already left Belarus).

A Russian training ground in L'gov, Kursk has been hit by drones, with casualties reported.

Uzbek and Tajik citizens have been drafted into the Russian military whilst working as contractors in Russia.

Russian forces attacked Kremenchuk, Poltava with cluster munitions. An emergency cleanup operation is underway.

[Werthead]

Ukrainian forces have liberated Andriivka, Sumy and driven Russian forces on the left flank of the salient back. Excellent news, as this sector had been looking flaky for a while. Russian forces operating in Sumy seem to have been denied reinforcements. Ukraine has also destroyed a major troop concentration holding Tyotkino, Kursk, but it appears new Russian (and possibly North Korean) reinforcements have arrived. Tyotkino was looking vulnerable for a while and may yet fall, but it's going to be harder going.

Ukrainian intelligence echoing other western agencies that Russia is preparing for "little green men"-style obfuscation operations in Estonia.

[Cause]

 Werthead, on 22 June 2025 - 07:05 PM, said:

Ukrainian intelligence echoing other western agencies that Russia is preparing for "little green men"-style obfuscation operations in Estonia.

Why? They would seem not to have the bandwidth to support another operation?

[Macros]

What's that mean?

[Werthead]

Macros, on 22 June 2025 - 08:26 PM, said:

What's that mean?

In 2014 Russia stoked separatist tendencies in eastern Ukraine, "encouraging" (or demanding, with little choice in the matter) the Russian-leaning parts of the Donbas in Luhansk and Donetsk Oblast to form breakaway republics. The leaders of the alleged separatists were rewarded with lots of money. Russian special forces and regular troops, only wearing unadorned green uniforms, then joined the separatist forces and fought back the Ukrainian regular army in several key battles, most notably at Mariupol (which they first won and then lost to Ukrainian counter-attack, hence their determination to take it again at the start of the conflict). Russia denied all involvement in the situation, and the formation of the so-called "Donetsk People's Republic" and "Luhansk People's Republic" gave them a springboard to make the 2022 invasion easier.

They have done similar things in Moldova (with the breakaway area of Transnistria) and Georgia (with the breakaway areas of Abkhazia and South Ossetia).

In this case Estonia has a small but voluble Russian-speaking or Russian-ethnic part of the population (about 20%, down from 24% three years ago), some of them 1st generation Russian immigrants or 2nd or 3rd generation, basically those Russians in Estonia who didn't want to go home when Estonia gained its independence and were allowed to remain in Estonia as Estonian-Russian citizens. This creates the sort-of "grey area" that Russia loves to exploit. In a "little green man" operation, Russian troops could infiltrate via the Russian-speaking parts of north-eastern Estonia and then secure an area of the country as part of a "breakaway movement". Russia would argue it was stepping in to save its brothers and sisters from oppression. Estonia is obviously tiny compared to Ukraine both in physical size and population, so any Russian provocations in Estonia would be vastly smaller and cheaper than in Ukraine, for a comparable effect.

Obviously any open Russian incursion into NATO territory would trigger Article 5 and see a coordinated NATO military response that would annihilate any Russian incursion within hours by airpower alone, so by sending troops without rank or insignia, Russia could deny that it was doing anything, and present a very vague "grey zone" of activity that NATO would find hard to engage with. Of course, we are much wiser to this kind of BS, and I suspect the NATO response would be overwhelming. If nothing else, thousands of NATO troops are currently based relatively close to the Narva and Russian forces, acknowledged or not, would have to drive them back. The second a single shot is fired at any of them, there'll be F-35s overhead obliterating every Russian air defence within 200 miles, and then hundreds of aircraft striking ground vehicles and positions. I don't think it's a viable tactic, at least not as easily as Russia probably thinks.

[Cause]

Did NATO really just agree to increase defense spending to 5% of GDP within the next ten years? That’s a turn around from just a few years ago and obviously a response to Ukraine. That’s more than double current spending.

A loss for Putin it would seem but also massive implications for all the countries involved. Where will the cuts to pay for it come from.