[Werthead]

Those losses were sustained not just at Avdiivka, but in repulsing a heavy armoured assault west of Krashnohorivka and in more fighting on the Lyman and Robotyne fronts.

Russia has resorted to digging tunnels to try to get closer to Avdiivka, but it's too easy (as temperatures drop) to see them with heat scopes and drop artillery on them, so that's not going very well. Russia is also apparently experimenting with unmanned robot cargo vehicles, which seem to be impressive but expensive.

Very little footage from the Kherson front, but reported Russian drone strikes on dug-in Ukrainian positions along the river's south banks.

A Russian pundit/propagandist, Yevgeniy Satanovsky, has been fired from his job. Since then he's been unleashing tirades of invective on his social media channels against his former bosses and colleagues, has insulted Medvedev continuously (deeply comical) and begun discussing who will Putin's successor be. Expect him to disappear off the airwaves shortly.

Ukrainian offensive actions around Verbove appear to have resumed, with Ukrainian forces grinding forwards and taking several additional trenchlines. Infantry formations covered by artillery with Bradley fighting vehicles for support seems to be an effective tactic once an area has been demined.

​

[Mentalist]

I am somewhat concerned about the push N of Avdiyivka. The orcs are likely to lose several thousand troops there, but I can't rule out them eventually overruning the slag heap and reaching Stepove past the railway. Which would turn the situation rather precarious, a la Soledar to Bakhmut.

Recent report by the CIT suggested roughly a third of the mobiks that were rounded up last autumn haven't been deployed yet- b/c they lack the logistical capacity to outfit, equip and deploy them en masse. The upshot is, they can't mass for a sudden breakrthrough with overwhelming force anywhere. The downside is, they have enough resources to keep a steady trickle of new haphazard units of mobiks, convicts and contract volunteers looking for an easy payout going as reinforcements for the immediate foreseeable future (arguably next few years) This type of sustained pressure (despite the casualties) could be sufficient to disrupt our attempts to plan and carry out further offensives.

Although the initial salvo did an insane amount of damage, we haven't seen any follow-up ATACMS strikes--unlike with the introduction of the HIMARS system, when we were treated to several week-long parade of exploding ammo dumps.
Meanwhile, North Korean artillery ammo started showing up at the frontlines, meaning at least in the immediate future they can maintain saturation suppressive fire with their offensives.

The big unknown is just how much spare heavy equipment they have left, but we have to assume a lot.

[Werthead]

 Mentalist, on 22 October 2023 - 07:09 PM, said:

Although the initial salvo did an insane amount of damage, we haven't seen any follow-up ATACMS strikes--unlike with the introduction of the HIMARS system, when we were treated to several week-long parade of exploding ammo dumps.

Meanwhile, North Korean artillery ammo started showing up at the frontlines, meaning at least in the immediate future they can maintain saturation suppressive fire with their offensives.

The big unknown is just how much spare heavy equipment they have left, but we have to assume a lot.

Apparently the US only supplied a limited number of ATACMS missiles, between 20 and 50, so Ukraine has to conserve them for the best possible use. Ukraine has been told to not use them to strike inside Russian territory, so as long as Ukraine keeps to that, I can seem getting more.

Of course, if the situation in the Middle East turns into a full-blown conflict, the US may decide it needs to conserve ammo for there.

[Chance]

 Mentalist, on 22 October 2023 - 07:09 PM, said:

Although the initial salvo did an insane amount of damage, we haven't seen any follow-up ATACMS strikes--unlike with the introduction of the HIMARS system, when we were treated to several week-long parade of exploding ammo dumps.
Meanwhile, North Korean artillery ammo started showing up at the frontlines, meaning at least in the immediate future they can maintain saturation suppressive fire with their offensives.

There was likely less then 30 ATACMS delivered, which is a bit sad a few hundred would have made a big difference but there where only 3700 made and quite a few of them have probably been used up in the last thirty years.

 Mentalist, on 22 October 2023 - 07:09 PM, said:

The big unknown is just how much spare heavy equipment they have left, but we have to assume a lot.

Personally I think the videos on this channel are pretty good at telling us the minimum they got.

https://www.youtube.com/@CovertCabal

And sadly it is a lot.

[Werthead]

Rumours of Putin having a heart attack over the weekend from some Russian Telegram channels.

Most credible channels are dismissing this as unhinged, but bizarre for it to come out.

[Mentalist]

 Werthead, on 23 October 2023 - 08:59 PM, said:

Rumours of Putin having a heart attack over the weekend from some Russian Telegram channels.

Most credible channels are dismissing this as unhinged, but bizarre for it to come out.

I'm hearing cardiac arrest, which was quickly resuscitated, *shrug*

feels irrelevant atm

[Macros]

What happens if he does kick it or end up hospitalised?

[Mentalist]

 Macros, on 24 October 2023 - 05:13 AM, said:

What happens if he does kick it or end up hospitalised?

In theory, the Prime minister becomes temp and calls for elections within 3 months.

Much more likely, we will see a palace war first.

If the rumours about the doubles are true, they may keep one in place to pretend everything's fine for a while, until one of the factions wins out and can ensure their own candidate becomes a successor.

If the government changes, that'll be the obvious signal there's a shake-up going on.

[Lady Bliss]

It’s ironic that Putin is condemning the violence and bombing of civilians in Gaza while he does the same in Ukraine. Also note how Ukraine has dropped almost completely off the news radar with countries (US) throwing aid towards Israel while continued support to Ukraine is now in question.

[Mentalist]

 Lady Bliss, on 26 October 2023 - 01:37 PM, said:

It’s ironic that Putin is condemning the violence and bombing of civilians in Gaza while he does the same in Ukraine. Also note how Ukraine has dropped almost completely off the news radar with countries (US) throwing aid towards Israel while continued support to Ukraine is now in question.

Biden is trying to bundle Israel Ukraine and Taiwan support in a single package, but that's obviously difficult because of the whole Congress thing.

The orcs are still trying to storm the villages N of Avdiyivka in order to isolate it. Too early to say if they will fail.

There's a lot of alarmed buzz about our raids on the L bank between Oleshky and Kakhovka. Nothing official's been said yet, so all we have a re scraps of repressed panic from the voenkors.

Since the airforce plays a limited role in this war, Ukraine needs loads and loads of artillery, mortar, and missiles ammo. While the enemy has enough manpower to continue Zerging their way towards our stronghold, only artillery can keep them at bay.
While they have availabe resorces, the situation remains tense. There's some expectation that the rains will bring down the intensity (b/c drones won't be able to do nearly as much spotting), but the timeline for that is unclear at the moment.

[Gorefest]

Enough manpower? I thought they had started recruiting geriatrics, Cubans etc?

[Mentalist]

 Gorefest, on 26 October 2023 - 03:54 PM, said:

Enough manpower? I thought they had started recruiting geriatrics, Cubans etc?

They have a resource pool of convicts, but also a steady pool of recruits due to astronomically high wages and death benefits. There is a significant number of destitute Russians who have no better prospects in life than to join the army, because their dead-end career will never pay as much as their family could get if they die in a trench.

At this point, it's premature to underestimate their numbers.

[Werthead]

The Russian extra conscription drive last autumn ended up being extremely unpopular and caused political unrest and drove about a million people to flee the country. They really don't want to do that again, so they are going hell for leather in voluntary recruitment and getting prisoners to join up, as well as both lowering and raising the recruitment age so it's now 17 to 50 (IIRC). Doing that, they've managed to raise more troops for the front lines. They don't need them to be good or individually effective, they just need them to soak up damage and have enough standing afterwards to declare victory over whichever target they've reduced to rubble.

One problem here is that Russia is expending more and more lives for smaller and smaller gains, and Ukraine's military capabilities are now immensely superior to the start of the conflict, whilst Russia's are marginally better in some areas (drones) and vastly inferior in others (almost everything but drones). Russia's ability to soak up damage remains legendary, but Ukraine's ability to dish out that damage has shot up incredibly.

One possible obstacle there is that Slovakia's new government has voted to end assistance to Ukraine. The outgoing administration was aware of that possibility, so everything they could spare from their inventory was sent, but Slovakia does have a very good arms production capability (shared with the Czech Republic over the border, with some cooperative weapons plants). Losing that would be a blow. At the moment the companies will fulfil their contracts, and it's possible current levels of production may remain in place as ramping down would cost jobs, which would be very unpopular.

One good thing is that Ukrainian military production (including native production of NATO-compatible armaments) has ramped up impressively since the start of the conflict and continues to do so. There is also growing irritation and outright anger in some European countries at some allies letting them down, and increasing paralysis in the USA as the pre-election politics kick in.

[Mentalist]

General SVR (a dubious "insider" channel) is claiming he croaked and all future decisions will be made by a body double who's now a puppet of the competing palace factions.

Expect runet to become a total shitshow tomorrow

[Chance]

Mentalist, on 26 October 2023 - 11:24 PM, said:

General SVR (a dubious "insider" channel) is claiming he croaked and all future decisions will be made by a body double who's now a puppet of the competing palace factions.

Expect runet to become a total shitshow tomorrow

If this is true the world once more proves that reality is far stranger than most fiction

[Mentalist]

 Chance, on 27 October 2023 - 02:32 PM, said:

 Mentalist, on 26 October 2023 - 11:24 PM, said:

General SVR (a dubious "insider" channel) is claiming he croaked and all future decisions will be made by a body double who's now a puppet of the competing palace factions.

Expect runet to become a total shitshow tomorrow

If this is true the world once more proves that reality is far stranger than most fiction

On the outer raid of the Sevastopol Harbor, a minesweeper boat appear to have hit a mine and needed to be towed to port.

[Chance]

Mentalist, on 27 October 2023 - 03:53 PM, said:

Chance, on 27 October 2023 - 02:32 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 26 October 2023 - 11:24 PM, said:

General SVR (a dubious "insider" channel) is claiming he croaked and all future decisions will be made by a body double who's now a puppet of the competing palace factions.

Expect runet to become a total shitshow tomorrow

If this is true the world once more proves that reality is far stranger than most fiction

On the outer raid of the Sevastopol Harbor, a minesweeper boat appear to have hit a mine and needed to be towed to port.

Hopefully its own sides mine, which if they where the least bit comptetent they would know where they put them.

This post has been edited by Chance: 27 October 2023 - 04:14 PM

[Mentalist]

 Chance, on 27 October 2023 - 04:13 PM, said:

 Mentalist, on 27 October 2023 - 03:53 PM, said:

 Chance, on 27 October 2023 - 02:32 PM, said:

 Mentalist, on 26 October 2023 - 11:24 PM, said:

General SVR (a dubious "insider" channel) is claiming he croaked and all future decisions will be made by a body double who's now a puppet of the competing palace factions.

Expect runet to become a total shitshow tomorrow

If this is true the world once more proves that reality is far stranger than most fiction

On the outer raid of the Sevastopol Harbor, a minesweeper boat appear to have hit a mine and needed to be towed to port.

Hopefully its own sides mine, which if they where the least bit comptetent they would know where they put them.

That seems to be the impression, yes.

"Hoisted by their own petard" is quite apt here.

[Werthead]

A Russian mine-removing vehicle hit a Ukrainian mine a few days ago, the driver panicked and sent the mine-remover back to his own lines, but completely failed to check if he was going through a safe lane, resulting in the vehicle hitting three Russian mines in quick succession before finally exploding. The driver had abandoned ship by that point.

[Werthead]

Current estimates are of 4,000 Russian fatalities in the assault on Avdiivka so far, more wounded. Given the intensity of combat there, that may be an under-estimate.

Oleg Tsaryov, the pro-Russia Ukrainian "traitor" MP who was living in Crimea and was tapped as a possible ruler of a post-war Ukrainian vassal state, has been stabbed at his home in Yalta and is in critical condition.

Russia has begun transferring equipment and assets seized from Wagner to Chechnya, where Kadyrov is raising and equipping two new battalions. It looks like Putin is looking to Kadyrov to act effectively as Prigozhin's successor, which seems like very shaky ground to stand on.

Ukraine experimenting with micropilots for their drones.

Someone figured out WTF is going on with the ROUSes. Along the combat front, grain was not harvested because of the risk of extreme death, so rats and mice have gorged themselves to massiveness over the summer and are now looking for somewhere warm to ride out the winter, so have made a bee-line for the trenches. Both sides are reporting the situation is getting out of control.