[Werthead]

Gorefest, on 11 July 2023 - 12:03 PM, said:

The problem remains though that any promises over 'post-war' joining of NATO are pretty pointless. If anything, it incentivises Russia even more to keep the conflict going indefinitely. NATO will either have to agree to let Ukraine join while the war is still ongoing (and sooner rather than later now that Ukraine has the upper hand), or publically declare that Ukraine will not be allowed to join but will be classed as some sort of protected buffer zone. But offering to let them join once the war is finished will only spur on Russia to keep the status quo alive.

Russia's ability to keep the status quo is looking increasingly sketchy. Morale has somehow plummeted further than before and Ukraine's current campaign of sniping artillery, air defences, armour concentrations and supply depots is proving highly effective. Last year Ukraine used HIMARS to destroy most of Russia's supply depots close to the front, causing a resupply logjam before really kicking off their offensive in Kharkiv Oblast. This year they're using Storm Shadow to destroy the replacement supply depots at greater range (which has already made resupplying artillery at the front more difficult) and loitering drones and mobile HIMARS fire to make mincemeat of individual supply vehicles. If they can overcome Russia's minefields and trenchlines in a reasonable timeframe, I'm not sure what Russia can do to stop them given their inventories are running dry (the videos of T-55s going past on train flatbeds with Russians mocking them for running out of more modern tanks are quite telling).

The latter point is not a small feat, though.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 11 July 2023 - 07:22 PM

[Gorefest]

It not about the Russians stopping them, it is about coming back all the time. Russia will just restock and invade again, even if it is just to keep the war going. They will never allow Ukraine to join NATO, so the will not let the war formally end if that is the trigger for membership.

[Macros]

start a crowdfunding page for one BaneBlade, that will clear a path through the minefield.

Hell Ukrainian farmers are jury rigging their own to get crops planted.

[Werthead]

Gorefest, on 11 July 2023 - 07:56 PM, said:

It not about the Russians stopping them, it is about coming back all the time. Russia will just restock and invade again, even if it is just to keep the war going. They will never allow Ukraine to join NATO, so the will not let the war formally end if that is the trigger for membership.

Russia's ability to restock is also seriously dubious.

I think the outcome they are looking for is Russia suffering significant attrition and losses to lead to Russia having to make a Kherson-style decision to consolidate. They pull back and Ukraine puts the entirety of Crimea under their fire control (it almost is already with Storm Shadow, it will be with ATACMS). They then negotiate an end to the war from that position of considerable strength. Ukraine even sounds like it might be willing to discuss some ceding of territory to the Donbas republics (possibly out of the very cynical but realpolitik idea that removing those areas from Ukraine also removes the largest bloc of voters likely to vote in a future pro-Russian government). They will likely not negotiate away their right to be in NATO.

Russia can say yes to that or face the prospect of the Crimea Bridge being destroyed, Crimea invaded, Sevastopol (and thus their primary Black Sea base) besieged and the war resumed in the rest of Donbas. Russia can try to escalate further but all roads there lead to their defeat anyway or annihilation (mutual or not) in WW3. And at any point along that road, the stresses the war is placing on the internal Russian political mechanism could snap and Putin could end up not being the one making the decisions. And even a very bellicose pro-Russian nationalist who comes to power afterwards would also have to be a realist enough to know that Russia needs to exit this war ASAP or see their entire conventional military be reduced to ashes with the only prospect for resupply being Russia becoming a junior client state of China for many decades to come (something Putin seems almost resigned to, but other Russians are deeply unhappy about).

The second that happens, Ukraine is in NATO (not straight away, but probably within a year tops) and the question becomes moot. The only way back from that is for Russia to declare war on NATO, which is not going to happen in anything remotely resembling the foreseeable future.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 11 July 2023 - 08:25 PM

[Werthead]

A significant number of the Russian 60th Independent Motorised Rifle Brigade have mutinied and refused to leave their barracks, mostly from the Russian Far East. They were called up in September but did not receive the promised training, instead being shipped to Ukraine just 10 days later. They were not granted leave or rotation, but spent eight months on the front. When the offensive began, their defences were systematically eroded, their artillery support destroyed, promised tank support either destroyed or simply was never sent in the first place. They held the position for some time until it became untenable. Some wounded soldiers, even quite heavily wounded ones, were sent back to the front to keep fighting, despite not being capable. The unit losses sound around 60-70%, basically enough to make the unit no longer combat capable.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 11 July 2023 - 08:24 PM, said:

Russia's ability to restock is also seriously dubious.

I think you can put that as. Even if there is peace tomorrow they are not going to be as "strong" as they where at the start of the invasion in ten years time. They could build a better military but it would be a significantly smaller military and probably only if they gave up a lot of their nuclear and naval forces which are impossible drains on their economy. If Russia sized its military after its economy it would be 8% the size of the American one

They simply don't have the economy and have been living off old soviet reserves that where intended to fight ww3 in the eighties.

This post has been edited by Chance: 12 July 2023 - 11:57 AM

[Werthead]

Interesting signs, not fully confirmed yet, that Ukraine's push on Robotyne has achieved a breakthrough, with Ukrainian units reaching and occupying abandoned parts of the main trenchline east of the town. Robotyne is a primary objective for an advance on Tokmak. Still no sign of the heavy assault brigades behind them, but if they want to force a breach to the sea, this is easily the best place to do it (which the Russians know, hence the heavy defensive lines around Robotyne, Tokmak and Melitopol just to the south).

This post has been edited by Werthead: 13 July 2023 - 01:06 PM

[Lady Bliss]

I wonder what Putin will do if Ukraine wins.

[Macros]

Fall out of a hotel window one should think

[Cause]

Lady Bliss, on 13 July 2023 - 04:19 PM, said:

I wonder what Putin will do if Ukraine wins.

Ukraine has already won, its just takes time to play out.

Russia's stocks are depleting, and they are getting minimal support from china, Belarus and NK (Also when NK is you ally rethink your life). Russias allies either cant provide meaningful support or dont want to. Ukraine on the other hand is being stockpiled by the majority of the worlds best economies. Even if that support has been slower than Ukraine might wish their potential stockpiles remain orders of magnitude larger. The recent NATO summit was a coup for Ukraine even if the alliance poured cold water on their goal of joining.

I would think its now just a case of how can everyone end the war in such a way that everyone can at least pretend they won, but their is a clear loser already. I guess Putins last hope might be to hold on for another 1.5 years in the hope trump takes the white house and cuts off the arm supplies to Ukraine. Russia already seems to be being slowly ground down however so that seems an impossible goal.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Cause, on 13 July 2023 - 06:32 PM, said:

Lady Bliss, on 13 July 2023 - 04:19 PM, said:

I wonder what Putin will do if Ukraine wins.

Ukraine has already won, its just takes time to play out.

Russia's stocks are depleting, and they are getting minimal support from china, Belarus and NK (Also when NK is you ally rethink your life). Russias allies either cant provide meaningful support or dont want to. Ukraine on the other hand is being stockpiled by the majority of the worlds best economies. Even if that support has been slower than Ukraine might wish their potential stockpiles remain orders of magnitude larger. The recent NATO summit was a coup for Ukraine even if the alliance poured cold water on their goal of joining.

I would think its now just a case of how can everyone end the war in such a way that everyone can at least pretend they won, but their is a clear loser already. I guess Putins last hope might be to hold on for another 1.5 years in the hope trump takes the white house and cuts off the arm supplies to Ukraine. Russia already seems to be being slowly ground down however so that seems an impossible goal.

How much aid could Trump provide for Putin?

Quote

avoiding his first-term approach of appointing people who might protect him from his worst instincts and instead packing the administration with loyalists; trying to get a firmer grip on the military with an eye to consolidating power [...]

Foreign policy would be turned on its head, as Trump resumes his antagonism toward allies in Europe and renews his friendship with Vladimir Putin. And basic democratic norms, such as the constitutional prohibition of a third presidential term, could give way. [...]

[...] "If you thought it was insane during his first term, you haven't seen anything yet,"

Sweet Revenge: What Trump Would Do in a Second Term (newsweek.com)

... and with the aid of generative AI and deepfakes... while Trump knows he's probably not far from death, and likely to go to prison if he doesn't secure a 'third' (or boundless) term....

Economic aid, even military supplies?... I honestly wouldn't even put US military intervention---even overt pro-Putin intervention---past him. I'm sure he'd gladly nuke Ukraine. Money badger [or rager?] cult DGAF.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 13 July 2023 - 06:54 PM

[Werthead]

Trump will do whatever is expedient in the moment. During his first term apparently he'd be talking incredibly tough on China at the start of the conversation, halfway through would abruptly reverse course and say that Taiwan was not the USA's problem and it was stupid to think they could defend an island 5,000 miles away when China was so much closer, and then by the end of the conversation he'd have come back around to being tough on China again and agreeing the US needed to defend Taiwan. Military planners were left pretty confused as to what he'd do in the result of a major foreign policy crisis requiring decisive action (and apparently were having nightmares over his bellicosity towards North Korea).

I do think the ideal now is to try to head off that problem by simply helping Ukraine do what it needs to do to end the war long before then, and I think there is now a sense in Ukraine and its backers that this counter-offensive isn't a three-month battle and then take stock, like Kharkiv last year and the Russian offensives before and after, but a continuous effort lasting many months into next year, at the end of which the situation will be clearer and negotiations will be possible.

Ukraine is being modest at the moment but behind the scenes it sounds like they are cautiously more optimistic, identifying a series of weak points in the Russian lines that they can exploit, and are doing so at the moment. Their main concern seems to be being forced into a rash major assault for political reasons before they have properly shaped the battlefield and sniped Russia's logistics network into oblivion, which is probably going to take many further weeks (unless a Russian collapse happens on the line and they can move dynamically to take advantage of that).

[Werthead]

Something going on in Voronezh. A missile or projectile exploded over the Voronezh-45 nuclear military facility. This facility was captured by Wagner during their thunder drive on Moscow and some rumours have suggested its seizure is what sparked the peace talks between Putin (via Lukashenko) and Prigozhin.

Some indications now that somebody is attacking the military facility. It's unclear if it's been transferred back from Wagner to MoD control.

In addition, some reports coming out that some Wagner forces left their encampments about 12 hours ago and haven't been seen since.

Russian counter-attacks around Bakhmut repulsed, Ukraine now claims that the Bakhmut theatre has developed a "southern front" around the city. It looks like Ukraine is serious (or wants Russia to think they're serious) about enveloping Bakhmut completely. They've started hitting ammo and resupply dumps to the NE of Bakhmut that were being used to resupply Russian forces in the city.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 13 July 2023 - 11:43 PM

[Chance]

Werthead, on 13 July 2023 - 09:23 PM, said:

Ukraine is being modest at the moment but behind the scenes it sounds like they are cautiously more optimistic, identifying a series of weak points in the Russian lines that they can exploit, and are doing so at the moment. Their main concern seems to be being forced into a rash major assault for political reasons before they have properly shaped the battlefield and sniped Russia's logistics network into oblivion, which is probably going to take many further weeks (unless a Russian collapse happens on the line and they can move dynamically to take advantage of that).

I think perhaps that neither Ukraine nor Russia are willing to do what is probably necessary to win the war outright in the short term for completely understandable reasons. So both of them are planning not to lose. Ukraine by nibbling at Russian capabilities so that they can't recover, taking any good opportunities they see. Russia by not collapsing by throwing sufficient bodies at the problem without a general mobilization. Most likely the force concentration or simply dudes per meter along the front is simply way too low on both sides for a military end to the war. Most of the action is happening on the company or at most battalion level. With the size of the front and the population of the nations involved it probably should be division or even corps level engagements which is two orders of magnitude up in size. Simply put even if Russia did win it doesn't have the manpower to occupy Ukraine and Ukraine does not have the forces whatever we wishes to force Russia to end the war without doing something radical.

This post has been edited by Chance: 14 July 2023 - 05:51 AM

[Macros]

Does Russia have the equipment for a general mobilisation now?

Does Putin have the public will behind him to do it?

I don't think so, ergo short of the nuclear option Russia can not win this war

[Werthead]

Chance, on 14 July 2023 - 05:48 AM, said:

I think perhaps that neither Ukraine nor Russia are willing to do what is probably necessary to win the war outright in the short term for completely understandable reasons. So both of them are planning not to lose. Ukraine by nibbling at Russian capabilities so that they can't recover, taking any good opportunities they see. Russia by not collapsing by throwing sufficient bodies at the problem without a general mobilization. Most likely the force concentration or simply dudes per meter along the front is simply way too low on both sides for a military end to the war. Most of the action is happening on the company or at most battalion level. With the size of the front and the population of the nations involved it probably should be division or even corps level engagements which is two orders of magnitude up in size. Simply put even if Russia did win it doesn't have the manpower to occupy Ukraine and Ukraine does not have the forces whatever we wishes to force Russia to end the war without doing something radical.

Ukrainian potential manpower on the battle front is quite large: over 750,000 mobilised troops with around 300,000 more potentially available and waiting for training (both Ukraine and Russia have a massive logjam with training facilities, which Russia has overcome by not bothering or sending recruits to Belarus for training, which is pretty much useless), minus an estimated 50,000-100,000 killed and wounded (combined). Russia has larger manpower reserves but only accessible through further rounds of mobilisation, which the Kremlin is very wary of. There's already been a row this week between the regional governors and the heads of recruitment in Moscow and St. Petersburg, asking why the big cities are not contributing more and basically being told "we're more important than you plus you look Asian, so nobody cares if you die," which has gone down well.

Ukraine does have the military forces available to end the war fairly decisively, but it requires a series of victories where Russia sustains heavy casualties and Ukraine sustains relatively few, and Russia withdraws as they have done in the past from Kharkiv and Kherson. They have achieved this throughout the war so far but it's been very tough.

Macros, on 14 July 2023 - 06:55 AM, said:

Does Russia have the equipment for a general mobilisation now?

Does Putin have the public will behind him to do it?

I don't think so, ergo short of the nuclear option Russia can not win this war

Very difficult. General mobilisation or even further small mobilisations would entail drawing on recruits from the big cities. Doing that in the Afghan War is basically what led to the end of the war, when massive protests erupted in Moscow and St. Petersburg at the bodybags coming back from Afghanistan. Equipping them would also be a nightmare at this point. Russia is, right now, drawing on 1950s Soviet stocks (having exhausted or fully deployed its 1970s and 1980s stocks).

There are viable paths to Russia losing the war or eking it out to a stalemate. The viable paths to military victory are few and far between. And all the while the instabilities and challenges to Putin internally are mounting.

[Chance]

Werthead, on 14 July 2023 - 09:55 AM, said:

Ukrainian potential manpower on the battle front is quite large: over 750,000 mobilised troops with around 300,000 more potentially available

Both sides seem to have around those numbers, perhaps half of which are actual combat troops.

Covering nearly one million meters of frontline.

Quote

Russia has larger manpower reserves but only accessible through further rounds of mobilisation, which the Kremlin is very wary of. There's already been a row this week between the regional governors and the heads of recruitment in Moscow and St. Petersburg, asking why the big cities are not contributing more and basically being told "we're more important than you plus you look Asian, so nobody cares if you die," which has gone down well.

Its one of the very interesting developments this week, that regional muppets are actually starting to question their orders in public.

One of the historically interesting things with mobilizations is how we have become crap at them during the 21st century. If this war had been fought in the 20th century Ukraine would have had well over a million men in under arms right now and Russia would have had at least five times that.

Quote

Ukraine does have the military forces available to end the war fairly decisively, but it requires a series of victories where Russia sustains heavy casualties and Ukraine sustains relatively few, and Russia withdraws as they have done in the past from Kharkiv and Kherson. They have achieved this throughout the war so far but it's been very tough.

Do they have the better military in the conflict, for sure, is it sufficient we'll know in a year but I think its unlikely that they will retake Crimea, Donetsk or Luhansk this year unless Russia collapses faster than anyone expects. The rest is probably up for grabs however but it isn't enough to win the war.

This post has been edited by Chance: 14 July 2023 - 11:50 AM

[Mentalist]

Chance, on 14 July 2023 - 11:39 AM, said:

Werthead, on 14 July 2023 - 09:55 AM, said:

Ukrainian potential manpower on the battle front is quite large: over 750,000 mobilised troops with around 300,000 more potentially available

Both sides seem to have around those numbers, perhaps half of which are actual combat troops.

Covering nearly one million meters of frontline.

Quote

Russia has larger manpower reserves but only accessible through further rounds of mobilisation, which the Kremlin is very wary of. There's already been a row this week between the regional governors and the heads of recruitment in Moscow and St. Petersburg, asking why the big cities are not contributing more and basically being told "we're more important than you plus you look Asian, so nobody cares if you die," which has gone down well.

Its one of the very interesting developments this week, that regional muppets are actually starting to question their orders in public.

One of the historically interesting things with mobilizations is how we have become crap at them during the 21st century. If this war had been fought in the 20th century Ukraine would have had well over a million men in under arms right now and Russia would have had at least five times that.

Quote

Ukraine does have the military forces available to end the war fairly decisively, but it requires a series of victories where Russia sustains heavy casualties and Ukraine sustains relatively few, and Russia withdraws as they have done in the past from Kharkiv and Kherson. They have achieved this throughout the war so far but it's been very tough.

Do they have the better military in the conflict, for sure, is it sufficient we'll know in a year but I think its unlikely that they will retake Crimea, Donetsk or Luhansk this year unless Russia collapses faster than anyone expects. The rest is probably up for grabs however but it isn't enough to win the war.

I reserve my comments on UAF's prospects until mid-September.

[Werthead]

Russian Telegram channels and Belarusian analysts (oddly) claiming that Ukraine has taken Staromaiorsky, which is the next village on the Velyka Novosilka-Mariupol axis. This is where Ukraine achieved the first successes of the counter-offensive but then seemed to switch focus to Bakhmut and the Tokmak direction. Now the emphasis is back here in the middle again. Ukraine encountered very heavy minefields here so it might be that mine-clearers have done their jobs, allowing a resumption of the advance.

Next major target on this advance would be Staromlynivka. Still 85km from Mariupol though.

Interesting to see where the breach happens, if it's here or over on the Tokmak approach. Or both, which might give Ukraine the problem of having to decide which advance to support. Still, a good problem to have.

[Werthead]

Ukraine appears to have used a bunker-buster missile for the first time in the conflict, blowing up an LPR command post they had cunningly hidden in a mineshaft.

The grain deal has expired and Turkey is now pondering just continuing it without Russian approval and daring Russia to attack its naval vessels on the Black Sea, either triggering a NATO response or Turkey will just obliterate Russia's forces operating in Syria in retaliation, close the Bosphorus and collapse Russia's entire operation in Syria. Possibly a bit far-fetched, but Russia is fairly heavily stretched with forces operating in Syria and Armenia, both on Turkey's doorstep. Russia has had to switch rapidly from seeing Turkey as a friendly neutral (or at least a true neutral) to possibly a regional threat. Russia's best bet to keep Turkey onside is to pressure Iran into threatening to intervene in the area, but it's unclear if Iran is interested in doing that (especially with Turkey and Israel playing more nicely than a while). That whole situation is becoming quite tense

More likely, Turkey will just continue the operation and after a few days Russia will announce a resumption of the deal after a high-profile, "tough but respectful" call between Erdogan and Putin (or even a face-to-face).

The Crimea Bridge over the Kerch Strait has taken two direct hits from aquatic drones, from the look of it. One carriageway is partially collapsed into the water, one support has been destroyed and needs to be replaced completely, another section of roadway is standing but unstable and needs to be re-supported. The rail side of the bridge took damage from the shock of the blast. The crossing will not be partially repaired until September and not fully functional again until at least November.

As a result, there is now a colossal traffic jam forming at the other end of Crimea, with thousands of cars trying to cross the bridges into occupied Kherson and get out that way. Apparently petrol stations are charging extortionate amounts for food, water and even using the toilet. Some serious panic-buying going on.

Some early reports of a Russian offensive, possibly their largest since last year, in the vicinity of Lyman and Kupyansk. Ukraine has been warning of an effort in this sector for some months, hopefully they are prepared for it. They have relatively heavy forces to the south near Bakhmut that could be diverted, which of course is what the Russians might be hoping to accomplish.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 17 July 2023 - 06:29 PM