[Tiste Simeon]

He's sent out a voice message today I think though whether that's been verified as actually being him I don't know...

https://www.bbc.co.u...europe-66006142

[Abyss]

New career as inside/outside window repairman to begin any day now.

[Mentalist]

Tiste Simeon, on 26 June 2023 - 03:51 PM, said:

He's sent out a voice message today I think though whether that's been verified as actually being him I don't know...

https://www.bbc.co.u...europe-66006142

He's trying very hard to make it sound like he didn't lose anything.

Sounds quite pathetic.

[Macros]

Progorzhin looks like a villain from a red alert cutscene

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

Putin Backtracks 12 Hours After Saying Prigozhin Would Be Punished

[...] FSB says its dropping all charges against Wagner.

[...] Prigozhin was not named specifically but it was reported that the entire case is now closed.

[...] Putin had pledged [...] “The organizers of this rebellion... [will] be brought to justice,”

Putin Backtracks 12 Hours After Saying Prigozhin Would Be Punished

Supposedly barracks are being built in Belarus for Wagner....

[Werthead]

Macros, on 27 June 2023 - 06:12 AM, said:

Progorzhin looks like a villain from a red alert cutscene

Not sure about that, most of those people were pretty good-looking (even Joseph Kucan rocks the bald look) and the second and third games with their insane cast list of ridiculously hot models playing military general and spies (plus bonus George Takei as the Emperor of Mecha-Japan, obviously). IIRC the ugliest person in them is Tim "SPAAAACE" Curry, and he's really not that ugly.

Prigorzhin looks more like one of the low-res face models from STALKER: SHADOWS OF CHERNOBYL, on a guy you'd shoot dead five seconds after meeting him because he just got on your nerves.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 28 June 2023 - 10:53 PM, said:

Macros, on 27 June 2023 - 06:12 AM, said:

Progorzhin looks like a villain from a red alert cutscene

Not sure about that, most of those people were pretty good-looking (even Joseph Kucan rocks the bald look) and the second and third games with their insane cast list of ridiculously hot models playing military general and spies (plus bonus George Takei as the Emperor of Mecha-Japan, obviously). IIRC the ugliest person in them is Tim "SPAAAACE" Curry, and he's really not that ugly.

Prigorzhin looks more like one of the low-res face models from STALKER: SHADOWS OF CHERNOBYL, on a guy you'd shoot dead five seconds after meeting him because he just got on your nerves.

I mean, Yuri was creepy, though he lacked Prigozhin's charisma.

Some good pushes from UAF south of Bakhmut. There's ongoing orc panic about our bridgehead across from Kherson - though it's still on the islands, a few km from L bank proper. But there's buzz that that is coming as well.

Personally, I'm hoping for another RDK incursion north of the border, with simultaneous push on Dnipro, and renewed efforts towards the Azov Sea.
But realistically, we should take a bunch more weeks to degrade their artillery and other equipment stocks. So even though everyone is impatient for good news, most likely it'll take time- unless there's pressure to "show results in time for the NATO Summit"

[Chance]

Mentalist, on 29 June 2023 - 01:51 AM, said:

But realistically, we should take a bunch more weeks to degrade their artillery and other equipment stocks. So even though everyone is impatient for good news, most likely it'll take time- unless there's pressure to "show results in time for the NATO Summit"

It is a boring but probably long time winning strategy, the current rate of artillery attrition on the russian side must be unsustainable for more than a few more weeks. The russians might have the artillery pieces and ammo but do they have enough trained artillerists. Of course with some of the artillery barrages from the russians we see already its more attempt to hit general direction of ukrainian lines already. And artillery wins any conflict where you can't get air supremacy which neither side should be able to get until Ukraine get an upgrade which probably isn't until this time next year. But there are really a crap ton of surpluss fighters and attack aircrafts in NATO with the current push towards F35 among most of its members. What the US really should do is loan the ukrainans a squadron of F22's for a week or two that should do it for the russian airforce not going to happen but...

Quote

Personally, I'm hoping for another RDK incursion north of the border, with simultaneous push on Dnipro, and renewed efforts towards the Azov Sea.

Probably they could take a lot of ground if they went for a full assault say in the belogrod area but some western allies would probably not like it.

This post has been edited by Chance: 29 June 2023 - 07:40 AM

[Mentalist]

Chance, on 29 June 2023 - 07:26 AM, said:

Mentalist, on 29 June 2023 - 01:51 AM, said:

But realistically, we should take a bunch more weeks to degrade their artillery and other equipment stocks. So even though everyone is impatient for good news, most likely it'll take time- unless there's pressure to "show results in time for the NATO Summit"

It is a boring but probably long time winning strategy, the current rate of artillery attrition on the russian side must be unsustainable for more than a few more weeks. The russians might have the artillery pieces and ammo but do they have enough trained artillerists. Of course with some of the artillery barrages from the russians we see already its more attempt to hit general direction of ukrainian lines already. And artillery wins any conflict where you can't get air supremacy which neither side should be able to get until Ukraine get an upgrade which probably isn't until this time next year. But there are really a crap ton of surpluss fighters and attack aircrafts in NATO with the current push towards F35 among most of its members. What the US really should do is loan the ukrainans a squadron of F22's for a week or two that should do it for the russian airforce not going to happen but...

Quote

Personally, I'm hoping for another RDK incursion north of the border, with simultaneous push on Dnipro, and renewed efforts towards the Azov Sea.

Probably they could take a lot of ground if they went for a full assault say in the belogrod area but some western allies would probably not like it.

there's an airbase in Bryans'k Oblast that's like 10 km from the border.

And in Belgorod Oblast, 20 km from the border is the suplly/railway hub in Valuyki that's keeping the entire Svatove-Kreminna frontline going. If RDK was to cut that railway line and create a pocket of controlled territory, the UAF could potentially flank the entire trenchworks and envelop that entire defensive line.

I think Prigozhin holding 2 Oblast' centres of 1 million people each with a few thousand men is gonna change everyone's perceptions of Russia. And RDK taking a few small towns would no longer seem so outlandish. But that's me just hoping out loud.

[Chance]

Mentalist, on 29 June 2023 - 02:30 PM, said:

I think Prigozhin holding 2 Oblast' centres of 1 million people each with a few thousand men is gonna change everyone's perceptions of Russia. And RDK taking a few small towns would no longer seem so outlandish. But that's me just hoping out loud.

Kinda makes you wonder what would happen if Ukrainian high command said fuck it we are driving for Moscow instead of Crimea. Not politically viable but Prigozhin really highlight the house of cards the Russians have built and how much they are counting on Ukraine continuing to fight with one hand tied behind their back.

This post has been edited by Chance: 29 June 2023 - 03:46 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Mentalist, on 29 June 2023 - 02:30 PM, said:

Chance, on 29 June 2023 - 07:26 AM, said:

Mentalist, on 29 June 2023 - 01:51 AM, said:

But realistically, we should take a bunch more weeks to degrade their artillery and other equipment stocks. So even though everyone is impatient for good news, most likely it'll take time- unless there's pressure to "show results in time for the NATO Summit"

It is a boring but probably long time winning strategy, the current rate of artillery attrition on the russian side must be unsustainable for more than a few more weeks. The russians might have the artillery pieces and ammo but do they have enough trained artillerists. Of course with some of the artillery barrages from the russians we see already its more attempt to hit general direction of ukrainian lines already. And artillery wins any conflict where you can't get air supremacy which neither side should be able to get until Ukraine get an upgrade which probably isn't until this time next year. But there are really a crap ton of surpluss fighters and attack aircrafts in NATO with the current push towards F35 among most of its members. What the US really should do is loan the ukrainans a squadron of F22's for a week or two that should do it for the russian airforce not going to happen but...

Quote

Personally, I'm hoping for another RDK incursion north of the border, with simultaneous push on Dnipro, and renewed efforts towards the Azov Sea.

Probably they could take a lot of ground if they went for a full assault say in the belogrod area but some western allies would probably not like it.

there's an airbase in Bryans'k Oblast that's like 10 km from the border.

And in Belgorod Oblast, 20 km from the border is the suplly/railway hub in Valuyki that's keeping the entire Svatove-Kreminna frontline going. If RDK was to cut that railway line and create a pocket of controlled territory, the UAF could potentially flank the entire trenchworks and envelop that entire defensive line.

I think Prigozhin holding 2 Oblast' centres of 1 million people each with a few thousand men is gonna change everyone's perceptions of Russia. And RDK taking a few small towns would no longer seem so outlandish. But that's me just hoping out loud.

But the military in those oblasts didn't resist... assuming they'd also refuse to fight against Ukrainian forces is probably being overly optimistic.

[Tiste Simeon]

Chance, on 29 June 2023 - 03:46 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 29 June 2023 - 02:30 PM, said:

I think Prigozhin holding 2 Oblast' centres of 1 million people each with a few thousand men is gonna change everyone's perceptions of Russia. And RDK taking a few small towns would no longer seem so outlandish. But that's me just hoping out loud.

Kinda makes you wonder what would happen if Ukrainian high command said fuck it we are driving for Moscow instead of Crimea. Not politically viable but Prigozhin really highlight the house of cards the Russians have built and how much they are counting on Ukraine continuing to fight with one hand tied behind their back.

I've thought this before. I mean, how much military can the Russians have left?

It would obviously lose Ukraine a lot of international support, and no doubt tactically it's a dumb decision but...

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 29 June 2023 - 03:50 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 29 June 2023 - 02:30 PM, said:

Chance, on 29 June 2023 - 07:26 AM, said:

Mentalist, on 29 June 2023 - 01:51 AM, said:

But realistically, we should take a bunch more weeks to degrade their artillery and other equipment stocks. So even though everyone is impatient for good news, most likely it'll take time- unless there's pressure to "show results in time for the NATO Summit"

It is a boring but probably long time winning strategy, the current rate of artillery attrition on the russian side must be unsustainable for more than a few more weeks. The russians might have the artillery pieces and ammo but do they have enough trained artillerists. Of course with some of the artillery barrages from the russians we see already its more attempt to hit general direction of ukrainian lines already. And artillery wins any conflict where you can't get air supremacy which neither side should be able to get until Ukraine get an upgrade which probably isn't until this time next year. But there are really a crap ton of surpluss fighters and attack aircrafts in NATO with the current push towards F35 among most of its members. What the US really should do is loan the ukrainans a squadron of F22's for a week or two that should do it for the russian airforce not going to happen but...

Quote

Personally, I'm hoping for another RDK incursion north of the border, with simultaneous push on Dnipro, and renewed efforts towards the Azov Sea.

Probably they could take a lot of ground if they went for a full assault say in the belogrod area but some western allies would probably not like it.

there's an airbase in Bryans'k Oblast that's like 10 km from the border.

And in Belgorod Oblast, 20 km from the border is the suplly/railway hub in Valuyki that's keeping the entire Svatove-Kreminna frontline going. If RDK was to cut that railway line and create a pocket of controlled territory, the UAF could potentially flank the entire trenchworks and envelop that entire defensive line.

I think Prigozhin holding 2 Oblast' centres of 1 million people each with a few thousand men is gonna change everyone's perceptions of Russia. And RDK taking a few small towns would no longer seem so outlandish. But that's me just hoping out loud.

But the military in those oblasts didn't resist... assuming they'd also refuse to fight against Ukrainian forces is probably being overly optimistic.

Ukrainians wouldn't get involved. That's why I said RDK.

We've seen that Border Guards and Rosgvardiya are basically useless. Bringing in regulars from the frontlines or reserves is something they are refusing to do, so applying any pressure would be good.

A drive to Moscow would be pointless, because it would galvanize Russian population to get involved in the war the way skirmishes in the border regions simply can't. And trying to take and hold a city of 10+ million would be quite an undertaking and would require way too much troops.

[Werthead]

The US is apparently much closer to signing off on ATACMS. Apparently they've been carefully studying the effectiveness of Storm Shadow and concluded that supplying ATACMs would not have a significantly greater impact on escalation - ATACMS is only moderately longer-ranged than Storm Shadow - and the ATACMs warhead is smaller, but the larger number of munitions they could supply versus Storm Shadow (which has to be used sparingly) would have a greater impact on the front line.

[Cause]

Werthead, on 29 June 2023 - 10:09 PM, said:

The US is apparently much closer to signing off on ATACMS. Apparently they've been carefully studying the effectiveness of Storm Shadow and concluded that supplying ATACMs would not have a significantly greater impact on escalation - ATACMS is only moderately longer-ranged than Storm Shadow - and the ATACMs warhead is smaller, but the larger number of munitions they could supply versus Storm Shadow (which has to be used sparingly) would have a greater impact on the front line.

I was thinking about this war last night. It has proven an utter embarrassment for Russia and a special operation has turned into an 1.5 year war and they are no closer to winning than they were in 2015.

However, what got me thinking and what has suprised me is that a war between two modern peer armies can drag out so long. I was of the impression that a modern conflict like this would be essentially unthinkable. I figured a general would push a button and when the cruise missiles were done all that would be left of both sides would be rubble. Instead while the flying guided munitions are indeed been used, the biggest problem for both sides seems to be more targets than they have ammunition.

Now ukraine is clearly trying to not escalate too far and hasn't targeted Russians soil much and especially avoided cities. Russia on the other hand hasn't quite restrained themselves the same way. Russia has targeted the power grid, a dam, cities. Ukraine stands. Is it a testament to Ukraines resilience or are modern munitions not as destructive as I have imagined.

South Africa struggles to keep the lights on in peace time. If the power grid were under attack I cant help but feel the whole country would be in darkness. How has ukraine kept the lights on, the water flowing etc?

______________________________

Also Russia is a permanent member of the UN security council currently committing a war crime with he willful targeting of the power grid. Now I have long believed war is war, it cant be civilized but this hypocrisy is insane. I would say it highlights the need for change in the UN but I wont seriously expect this. In fact, thinking on it I have seen no chatter / news in this regard at all.

This post has been edited by Cause: 30 June 2023 - 12:41 AM

[Macros]

I say one of us needs to become a secret billionaire and assemble an elite team who circle the globe eliminating war mongers and profiteers

[Primateus]

I can't help but wonder, given that we've been shown how "loyal" to Putin Prigozhin and Wagner really is, how much would it take to buy their services against Russia, or to at least just fuck off and participate any longer?

[Macros]

See above

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 30 June 2023 - 12:35 AM, said:

Werthead, on 29 June 2023 - 10:09 PM, said:

The US is apparently much closer to signing off on ATACMS. Apparently they've been carefully studying the effectiveness of Storm Shadow and concluded that supplying ATACMs would not have a significantly greater impact on escalation - ATACMS is only moderately longer-ranged than Storm Shadow - and the ATACMs warhead is smaller, but the larger number of munitions they could supply versus Storm Shadow (which has to be used sparingly) would have a greater impact on the front line.

I was thinking about this war last night. It has proven an utter embarrassment for Russia and a special operation has turned into an 1.5 year war and they are no closer to winning than they were in 2015.

However, what got me thinking and what has suprised me is that a war between two modern peer armies can drag out so long. I was of the impression that a modern conflict like this would be essentially unthinkable. I figured a general would push a button and when the cruise missiles were done all that would be left of both sides would be rubble. Instead while the flying guided munitions are indeed been used, the biggest problem for both sides seems to be more targets than they have ammunition.

Now ukraine is clearly trying to not escalate too far and hasn't targeted Russians soil much and especially avoided cities. Russia on the other hand hasn't quite restrained themselves the same way. Russia has targeted the power grid, a dam, cities. Ukraine stands. Is it a testament to Ukraines resilience or are modern munitions not as destructive as I have imagined.

South Africa struggles to keep the lights on in peace time. If the power grid were under attack I cant help but feel the whole country would be in darkness. How has ukraine kept the lights on, the water flowing etc?

______________________________

Also Russia is a permanent member of the UN security council currently committing a war crime with he willful targeting of the power grid. Now I have long believed war is war, it cant be civilized but this hypocrisy is insane. I would say it highlights the need for change in the UN but I wont seriously expect this. In fact, thinking on it I have seen no chatter / news in this regard at all.

The only one raising the issue of reforming the UN was Zelensky (understandably enough).

Ukraine has requested clarification as to when and how Russia became a SecCouncil member (seeing as Russian Federation wasn't ever formally accepted into the UN- the USSR Rep basically announced that Russian Federation would be taking over as successor- but unlike Ukrainian and Belorussian SSRs (which had UN seats since 1945, and basically changed their names, but not their borders), RFSSR wasn't a UN member and it had different borders- so like all the other former Soviet constituent republics they should have formally petitioned the General Assembly to join the UN.

But neither China (who is propping up Putler), nor the US and allies (who don't want to lose their veto power either) are particularly interested in reforming the UN. Personally, I feel that the Sec Council should be expanded, but more votes needed for veto, and a certain percentage of GA votes (either 2/3s or 3/4s) should still override said veto. But none of the Big 5 will realistically agree to this.

[amphibian]

Why would a long drawn out war between two kinda if you squint a bit peer level armies surprise anyone? That's how they turn out over and over again.

The only real surprise here is that the violent repression of dissent hasn't turned into Putin family and friends dropping like flies in retaliation.