[Aptorian]

Crazy to imagine Wagner actually invading Moscow. It's like stories from ancient Rome, where the consuls or generals turned on the Capital state.

[Werthead]

The Belarusian Legion fighting alongside Ukrainian forces is saying it is pulling its forces and heading for Minsk, saying they will accept support from the Belarusian military and will move to eject Lukashenko (who may have already fled).

[HoosierDaddy]

Well isn't this just fascinating as hell.


I have a small measure of concern now about the stability of nuclear armaments and rogue Russian forces doing God knows what.

[Werthead]

First reports that Wagner units have crossed the border into the Moscow region.

[Tapper]

Aptorian, on 24 June 2023 - 10:02 AM, said:

Man, this weekend I think the whole world will be following the events in Russia. It's so fascinating.

I can't see Wagner and the Cook getting out of this, but supposedly Wagner was being defunded according to some sources - So it was do or die.

What ever happens Ukraine stands to benefit greatly. Here's hoping the dominos start falling but we don't end up with a bunch of Russian kingdoms with A-bombs.

IIRC, Wagner was essentially Russia’s way of support with plausible deniability towards dubious regimes and securing resources in Africa. Defunding it would have had effects on Russia that superseded Ukraine, or at the least would have had a larger impact outside of pure numbers of troops on the frontline.

Edit:

Whatever happens, I don’t think it will make Russia a nicer/ more democratic place to live for the average Russian in the short term.

Also interesting to see what the Putin fanbois on the US right have to say about this. Both DeSantis and Trump have negatively commented about supporting Ukraine as a means of halting Putin’s/ Russia’s ambitions. Even though this is all a result of interfactional politicking in Russia, this is a scoring point in an attack ad for anyone who cares to make it.

This post has been edited by Tapper: 24 June 2023 - 05:28 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

If Wagner did manage to take the Kremlin, how much would it really matter? I'd imagine everything that hasn't been transported out to safety (or set to be destroyed to prevent Wagner from taking it) would be password-protected, etc.? Putin etc. of course have fled; couldn't they just set up shop elsewhere in Russia---in well-nigh impregnable bunkers if need be?

[Aptorian]

Defunding is probably the wrong word, but it sounds like the military were taking steps to limit Wagners autonomy or efficacy as an independent unit.

With out his military power and strategic role, it would be a matter of time before prigozjin fell out of a window and landed on some poisonous bullets.

What ever happens, even if this stunt is quashed quickly, at least there'll be one less war criminal on the loose.

This post has been edited by Aptorian: 24 June 2023 - 05:34 PM

[Tapper]

Azath Vitr (D, on 24 June 2023 - 05:23 PM, said:

If Wagner did manage to take the Kremlin, how much would it really matter? I'd imagine everything that hasn't been transported out to safety (or set to be destroyed to prevent Wagner from taking it) would be password-protected, etc.? Putin etc. of course have fled; couldn't they just set up shop elsewhere in Russia---in well-nigh impregnable bunkers if need be?

Don’t know. Gorbachev didn’t recover from the putsch in the 90s, but it did give rise to Jeltsin. The question also becomes how to dislodge Wagner from Moscow - if military units and other government branches decide Putin is a goner and decide to side with Wagner, it could mean a new regime, but it will be uncertain how far its influence goes - border provinces might decide to secede, maybe?

If they decide Putin is a goner and they see a bone in contending with Prigozhin, then you might get different factions fighting for power. If they stay loyal to Putin, who knows? Most likely army units will need to be brought in from the East.

Whichever way it goes, I don’t think it will result in more democracy within Russia.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Tapper, on 24 June 2023 - 05:36 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 24 June 2023 - 05:23 PM, said:

If Wagner did manage to take the Kremlin, how much would it really matter? I'd imagine everything that hasn't been transported out to safety (or set to be destroyed to prevent Wagner from taking it) would be password-protected, etc.? Putin etc. of course have fled; couldn't they just set up shop elsewhere in Russia---in well-nigh impregnable bunkers if need be?

Don't know. Gorbachev didn't recover from the putsch in the 90s, but it did give rise to Jeltsin. The question also becomes how to dislodge Wagner from Moscow - if military units and other government branches decide Putin is a goner and decide to side with Wagner, it could mean a new regime, but it will be uncertain how far its influence goes - border provinces might decide to secede, maybe?

If they decide Putin is a goner and they see a bone in contending with Prigozhin, then you might get different factions fighting for power. If they stay loyal to Putin, who knows? Most likely army units will need to be brought in from the East.

Whichever way it goes, I don't think it will result in more democracy within Russia.

If Putin decided to use a tactical nuclear weapon against Wagner after they had taken Moscow, would the order most likely be carried out? Could he order non-nuclear strikes capable of taking out Wagner if they occupy Moscow? Bunker-busters perhaps?

A bit like the burning of Moscow as Napoleon's troops entered... but I'd imagine even Putin would be too concerned about radiation within Russia?... Unless he becomes completely desperate.

[Briar King]

So he ordered his troops back to base? All that just to punk out like a bitch? That didn’t even last a full day of that report is true.

[Werthead]

That's bizarre. Prigozhin turning around and heading for base when he was less than 200 miles from Moscow is bizarre.

Unless this whole thing was pre-planned and orchestrated by Putin himself, it does not make sense. He won't last a week.

[Briar King]

Maybe the MoD is dead and he actually got what he wanted without even needing to go in Moscow at all?

[worry]

Less a coup attempt, more like snapping at someone's hand reaching for his food dish (and it wasn't necessarily Putin's hand). Like -- Wagner is not yours to take. Warning apparently now heard.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Briar King, on 24 June 2023 - 07:00 PM, said:

Maybe the MoD is dead and he actually got what he wanted without even needing to go in Moscow at all?

Quote

Belarusian government claimed President Alexander Lukashenko had reached a deal with Prigozhin to halt the advance

(4) Prigozhin says his forces "are turning our columns around," amid claims of deal brokered by Lukashenko (cnn.com)

Not clear what the supposed 'deal' is... is Putin really going to let Prigozhin live after this?

[Tapper]

worry, on 24 June 2023 - 07:10 PM, said:

Less a coup attempt, more like snapping at someone's hand reaching for his food dish (and it wasn't necessarily Putin's hand). Like -- Wagner is not yours to take. Warning apparently now heard.

Well, snapping would be holding position and/or not advancing. Getting 25k troops to march on their own nations capital is to all appearances crossing the Rubicon and even if their boss plays a game of chicken with the regular army, the mercs know what they’re potentially getting into when no-one budges. They’re probably also never going to be in this position again.

[Chance]

worry, on 24 June 2023 - 07:10 PM, said:

Less a coup attempt, more like snapping at someone's hand reaching for his food dish (and it wasn't necessarily Putin's hand). Like -- Wagner is not yours to take. Warning apparently now heard.

A classic with mercenaries is pay us or else...seems like large scale extortion of a type that hasn't been common for a few centuries. But yes this will likely be the only time this works and more reliable forces will be installed in Moscow.

Question is what will happen with all the regular forces / security forces that went over to him...those guys may be looking forward to siberian vactations

Really interesting times however never thought they would even march toward Moscow, this is real roman empire stuff not something happening in modern day nations.

This post has been edited by Chance: 24 June 2023 - 07:53 PM

[worry]

You can add a big question mark to the end of my post though! I didn’t mean to sound so conclusive.

[Briar King]

So he’s supposed to go to Belarus in the deal.. is his group going to find their way there too? Or will he just catch a bullet in his dome in coming days? If the group makes it way to Belarus it could surely drive south into Kiev. Could this be the master plan all along to get their most successful forces on a new front?

That could be done without the opera if theater this was.

This post has been edited by Briar King: 24 June 2023 - 08:24 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

I suspect this is far from over. Putin cannot accept an armed insurrectionist, Prigozhin can’t accept the possibility of being eliminated if he lets his guard down. Wagner contingents smell blood & money & aren’t happy with this outcome. Then Kadyrov, what lesson did he learn.

Alexander S. Vindman ❎ on Twitter

[Werthead]

It appears that the deal is that Prigozhin goes to Belarus in exile, Wagner is effectively disbanded, no prosecutions and current members can join the Russian military, possibly with their ranks and privileges intact and transferred over.

One analysis is that Prigozhin was expecting a lot more Russian military forces, FSB etc to swap sides and go over to him on the way up to Moscow. Although some did, it was pretty small in number. Most adopted a wait and see attitude, and Prigozhin was not confident his forces could take the capital.

Some of Wagner is very unhappy with the deal. There was some analysis from the capital that they did not have enough Rosgvardia or police to adequately defend the city, and reportedly some police commissioners had already said behind closed doors they would not oppose Wagner. Depending on who you believe, Moscow was wide open and ripe for the plucking and Prigozhin bottled it, or too heavily defended to be capturable.