[Mentalist]

Spent most of yesterday catching up on stuff. During the holiday season (Dec 18th- St. Nicholas' day- Jan 19th- Baptismal, or "Theophany" as the wiki refers to it) I've limited my news exposure to scanning headlines and reading the flame wars in comment sections beneath the articles on plunging oil prices and ruble exchange rates. As such, I had lots of catching up to do.

Main conclusion: this thing's gone global. In a sense that UA is just a sideshow now, with Syria (and Middle East in general) being the centre stage, while UA and EU with its refugee crisis (Cologne) are mere ripples.

The entire world's watching Iran easing back into its role as one of the biggest carbohydrates supplier, now that it's being de-sancitoned. Following the logic of "what hurts my enemy is good for me", Ukrainians applaud the spike in oil supply and the falling prices. Living in a country that's also been hit by the falling oil (CAD is down 30% to USD after years of 1:1 parity), I'm less ecstatic, althugh I definitely like the thought of Terrorussia having no moneys to fight wars. That being said, the REAL reason why the market's drying up is b/c China's slowing growth is pushing ALL commodities down--and UA, whose second major export (after grain) is steel has been feeling this since 2008 (actually, this is most likely why we've had the whole revolution and everything else, really). So, if people wwere capable of appreciating the big picture, they'd see that in the long run, UA's not going to a good place either with the way the global economy is right now.

I've read some good news, mind: there's a bunch of hi-tech investments coming in from the West looking at manufacturing in UA- Japanese have bought into it, Bombardier's looking into it as well. Which are good things. How soon will this happen, and how well will it work, remains to be seen.

The Rada passed another super-rushed budget in the end of December. it was driven by Natalia Yares'ko, the Ukrainian-American finance minister and it was focused on austerity and funding the bottom line to please the IMF. The more liberal proposal for a new tax code was rejected, because it basically proposed to lower the tax burden so that more busiensses would go legit (the idea being, due to the tax burden being smth like 65% right now, over 60% of UA's economy is "gray", i.e., working under the table. Reducing taxes was supposed to incentivize them to start paying taxes and go legit, making up the losses from reducing taxes)
Also, apparently, in the flurry of last-minute amendments, one of the MPs sneaked in a provision that delays the mandatory asset declaration for govt officials to 2017. Since this is a mandatory requiremet of the EU for transparency standarts to have visas lifted, this caused an outrage and public outcry. now this scandalous amendment's to be revoked again next week.

really, the biggest intrigue right now is around the "decentralization" changes to the Constitution, which are supposed to grant the areas of Donbass occupied by the Terrorussians "special status" in the constitution. Basically, Russia's trying to turn UA into Bosnia, under the auspices of France and Germany, as part of Minsk-2. Since amending the constitution requires 300 votes, and the ruling coalition's been quite rocky, there's been a lot of back and forth on this. common sense suggests that it's downright moronic to provide any guarantees to the Terrorussians and make any concessions, when they've made none. Pres. Poroshenko's stubborn insistence on the "Peace Plan" ™ despite it being against common sense hinted strongly at there being some other unspoken agreements/personal guarantees the public wasn't being told about. Rumours of individual MPs being pressured into supporting the bill abounded.

in addition, the amendments to the constitution, although they give local governments and legislatures bigger budgets and more powers to solve local issues introduce additional powers of oversight and control for the Pres' representative-the introduction of the institution of "prefects" who are appointed by the Pres at his discretion and are given the power to veto any local law, and also to dissolve local councils and then postpone new elections indefinitely, ruling by decree. For obvious reasons, there's lots of opposition to any projects giving the central executive this much unchecked power.

when you take the "decentralization" proposal, bundle them with the amendment to give DOnbass "special status" and try to push it throug Parliament as a "package deal", you make a a lot of people unhappy. Tensions were high the past few weeks, and today's headlines make it seem that the Pres actually saw reason. That, or he ran into a roadblock with convincing "People's Front" - PM's party and second largest in the Rada to vote with him. The latter version is more likely given how the PM started making statements that any constitutional amendments ought to be done via referendum, and not through the Rada.

There's a lot of buzz that the coalition may fall apart, prompting new elections. Not sure how likely this is. The PM Yatseniuk's approval rating is borderline 0. Pres' party maintained its 30%,, as seen by local elections in October, but there are no guarantees they'll get any better, or that their satellites will fill in the gap left by Yatseniuk's party.

Russian opposition media's also dwelling on oil/ruble pairings, how the govt will be sequestering the budget by 10% to reflect falling oil prices (gutting social spendings even more), how in certain regions regional governments already don't have the money to pay salaries and pensions on time; Also, Chechnya's leader Ramzan Kadyrov started a new social media campaign against the opposition, condemning them as traitors and calling for their "elimination". Debates rage whenther Kadyrov is being VVH's talking head in this, or if that's his own initiative to show that he's basically independent, and no one can tell him what to do.
-They also like to spend more and more time prophesying the collapse and breakdown of Russia, but i'm not hopeful. Because nukes, and the West's fear of smth happening to said nukes.

Oh, right, also Crimea. UA's offically cut all power supplies as of Jan 1st-the old contract is done, and the new must include stipulation that Crimea is occupied Ukrainian territory--which Russia refused to do. They (Russians) also ran a phone poll on Jan 1st among Crimeans, asking them if they would agree to have UA supply them with power, if the contract said that Crimea was Ukraine. Supposedly, 93% said "NO". SO now they wait for Russia to "finish the energy bridge to Crimea" (estimated completion- May 2016). As for the regular bridge across the Kerchen straight, it definiely won't be built in 2016- RosAvtoDor (the road-building authority) said that due to falling oil prices, it has no money for a project like that this year.

Interesting thing happening in Sevastopol. They got an ex-admiral sent to them from Moscow as governor. He did nothing useful, but began expropriating public land and selling it to private interests. The most active people in Sevastopol (the civil society groups behind the so-called "Russian Spring" who spearheaded the pro-Russian protests in Feb-March of 2014). have asked VVH to replace him. VVH ignored them, but the governor brought in a PR consultant, who basically told them to take their "Ukrainian values" and stick 'em, b/c Russia doesn't work that way. ON Feb 28th they're planning to hold a rally to mark 2nd anniversary of their movement to "return home" at which they'll be protesting the governor. It'll be interesting to see how that goes (since, y'know, protesting against govt w/o permission is technically illegal in Russia).

[Gnaw]

@ Ment:

What happens if Turkey drops a Russian plane?

[Tsundoku]

Gnaw, on 31 January 2016 - 12:04 AM, said:

@ Ment:

What happens if Turkey drops another Russian plane?

FTFY

[Gnaw]

Tsundoku, on 31 January 2016 - 01:50 AM, said:

Gnaw, on 31 January 2016 - 12:04 AM, said:

@ Ment:

What happens if Turkey drops another Russian plane?

FTFY

Out of rep due to mafia. But yeah...

[Tsundoku]

Apparently the recent Russian behaviour has alarmed even the Swedes:

http://www.news.com....3d83d2d63ed41b2

[Mentalist]

Tsundoku, on 31 January 2016 - 01:50 AM, said:

Gnaw, on 31 January 2016 - 12:04 AM, said:

@ Ment:

What happens if Turkey drops another Russian plane?

FTFY

I think Russia's running out of things to sanction Turkey with. So probably not much, bar more weapons and money to Turkish Kurds.

[EmperorMagus]

Mentalist, on 01 February 2016 - 12:35 AM, said:

Tsundoku, on 31 January 2016 - 01:50 AM, said:

Gnaw, on 31 January 2016 - 12:04 AM, said:

@ Ment:

What happens if Turkey drops another Russian plane?

FTFY

I think Russia's running out of things to sanction Turkey with. So probably not much, bar more weapons and money to Turkish Kurds.

Maybe a Russian "mob" will storm the Turkish embassy?
Come on, Iran can't be the only country where "mobs" exist.

[Gothos]

I admit to something of a mixed feeling case when it comes to the kurdish situation. I would support an independant Kurdistan. But that's so never gonna happen.

[Mentalist]

EmperorMagus, on 01 February 2016 - 07:09 AM, said:

Mentalist, on 01 February 2016 - 12:35 AM, said:

Tsundoku, on 31 January 2016 - 01:50 AM, said:

Gnaw, on 31 January 2016 - 12:04 AM, said:

@ Ment:

What happens if Turkey drops another Russian plane?

FTFY

I think Russia's running out of things to sanction Turkey with. So probably not much, bar more weapons and money to Turkish Kurds.

Maybe a Russian "mob" will storm the Turkish embassy?
Come on, Iran can't be the only country where "mobs" exist.

Well, tbh, Russian citizens DID take to hating Turks much more actively than they did to the media msg that they all have to hate Ukrainians. So it n completely ou , the question.

Still, given Russian leadership chronic distrust of any spontaneo self-organization b it's citizenry (even if it's pro-govt), I foresee riot cops gettin involved.

Gothos, on 01 February 2016 - 09:26 AM, said:

I admit to something of a mixed feeling case when it comes to the kurdish situation. I would support an independant Kurdistan. But that's so never gonna happen.

I'm generally pro-Kurds, but anything Russia supports makes me uneasy.
That being said Iraqi Kurd have been steadily amassing more and more de-facto sovereignty. And Syrian Kurds are operating in a complete power vacuum. If Assad is take ou of the picture, an unless the West backs one of the factions with extreme prejudice, I foresee Lybia- or Somali-style instability there. Which leaves room open for a Kurdistan, esp if Iraqi Kurds play up Kosovo scenario.

Not seeing Turkey giving up its land, though.

My understanding is, Israel is VERY interested in Kurdistan as a potential ally being another non-Arab nation in the region.

[Gothos]

Mentalist, on 01 February 2016 - 02:52 PM, said:

I'm generally pro-Kurds, but anything Russia supports makes me uneasy.
That being said Iraqi Kurd have been steadily amassing more and more de-facto sovereignty. And Syrian Kurds are operating in a complete power vacuum. If Assad is take ou of the picture, an unless the West backs one of the factions with extreme prejudice, I foresee Lybia- or Somali-style instability there. Which leaves room open for a Kurdistan, esp if Iraqi Kurds play up Kosovo scenario.

Not seeing Turkey giving up its land, though.

My understanding is, Israel is VERY interested in Kurdistan as a potential ally being another non-Arab nation in the region.

Neither Turkey NOR Iran, always remember Iran is part of this too. But yeah, the only way I see a Kurdistan happening would be a new country on Syrian/Iraqi kurdish areas (pretty much this would be a de jure confirmation of a de facto status there) and in return the Kurds would give up areas in Turkey and Iran and move to the new country with no interference from the respective governments. I now wonder if Iraqi and Syrian Kurds would be able to cooperate and speak with one voice.

[Mentalist]

Oh, this is fun.

Minister of Econ. Development, a Lithuanian invited in to work as a "technocratic expert" declared his resignation. Reasons? He can't stand the lobbying by one of the MPs,Pres' business-partner, who insisted on blocking privatization of certain enterprises and putting "his people" as managers instead. (side note: the previous Minister was a Ukrainian national who worked for the govt of Malaysia during its "economic miracle". He also resigned following making a bunch of corruption allegations, b/c he couldn't deal with the obstructions anymore).

The Western embassies expressed their concerns. Rumour mill is saying the Pres' party got the order to prep for new parliamentary election in the fall, cuz they're not expecting the coalition to last.

All signs point to the next parliament being choc-full of populists who are capitalizing o the decreased standards of living during the half-assed implementation of "radical reforms".

Also, there's suggestions Saakashvili will make his own party and run on an anti-corruption platform, no offense, but i'm not expecting the repeat of a Georgian miracle- UA is just too freaking big for that, there's several million bureaucrats and their families involved in the system who will actively oppose the system; about as many "reformers" who will try to change it (w/o any legal means to do so); and about 85 to 90% of the population who will passively resist the need to develop a sense of civic responsibility and take actual control and liability for their decisions.

Still, such instability means no way Minsk 2 is gonna happen. Latedt round of negotiations (which UA made public, much to the displeasure of the Russian MFA) basically has the Terrorussians demanding special status within UA, guaranteed quota in the parliament AND veto power in any strategic national decisions (read: NATO). If that's not bad enough they also want economic preferences, and UA accepts all responsibility for funding the reconstruction efforts.
Now, I'm aware this is probably an opening bargaining move in a "you don't get unless you ask" school, but frankly any special status concessions are ridiculous from a Ukrainian PoV, b/c what's to stop any other good tax-paying oblast from saying "and why not us?".

Turbulent times ahead, that's for sure.

[Mentalist]

Hrm. LOADS of buzz about the Cabinet getting sacked. If that happens, most likely there'll be new parliamentary election. Outlook of which is not good, ridiculously populist parties are on the rise, b/c half-assed "reforms" made living standards plunge, and half-assed implementation of austerity (adjusted for more efficient corruption) mean the income desparity is getting progressively worse.

At the same time, the West is obviously growing exasperated with UA's leadership. IMF's actually taking a stern position of "no next advance until we see some reforms", which is great.

But overall, given how things are heating up in Syria, that can't be good.

And totally random, but the site I used to translate for is updating again now, after being out since the summer. I'll have to get in touch with the guy running it to see if anything's gonna b happening with the English version of it.

[Mentalist]

Rada failed in a no-confidence vote against the Cabinet yesterday. According to ze rules, now they can't try again until autumn. The whole thing was clearly staged. Prior to the no-confidence vote, there were enough votes to pass the proposition that the Cabinet's work so far was "unsatisfactory". But when the no-confidence vote was about to be announced, the entire NF fraction (People's Front, the party of the PM Yatseniuk), as well as the bulk of the Opposition Block (sponsor- coal and energy oligarch Akhmetov), as well as the "Rebirth" group (sponsor: oligarch Kolomoyskyj) walked out, leaving a sum total of 205 MPS to try to pass a no-confidence vote (with 226 votes needed). Lots of speculation about how this was a spectacle set up by the NF and BPP (president's party), with the collusion of major oligarch clans.

As a result, another small party left the coalition today- "Fatherland", led by the ex-PM Yuliya Tymoshenko. Currently, coalition is composed of BPP (latest count: 136, with at least 3 MPS having declared they are leaving the fraction, but not processed yet. Also, there's still some internal opposition from a few "young reformers", as well as the members of Vitaly Klytchko's UDAR party that was "subsumed" into BPP), NF (81) and "Samopomich" ("Self-Help"), which has 26 MPs and was on the fence about leaving for the past 3 months. Overall, IF Samopomich does bow out, in theory, the coalition is down to 214 cotes and must be dissolved. If no new coalition is formed within 2 months, we are looking at new elections. But in practice, BPP and NF have the 2 "MP groups" - "Will of the People" (20 MPs) and the abovementioned "Rebirth" (23 MPs) to turn back to, plus at least half of the "Independent" pool (sum total right now- 53. Composed about equal part of right-wing nationalists/disgruntled former coalition members and the most odious FPTP-elected MPs, whose reputation are too sullied even for the "neutral" "groups") to turn to as "minor partners" so as "not allow the country to plunge into chaos".

And so the trainwreck continuies...

[Mentalist]

Welp, SP is out. In theory, you'd think this means everyhring's wrapped up. But... this is UA we're talking about.

Turns out the Radical Party, which made so much noise about leaving the coalition in Aug, when Rada voted for the first draft of new constitutional amendments to give Donbas special status... never officially left the coalition. And now they are willing to "talk" with BPP and NF. facepalmsigh.

Meanwhile, BPP gave the PM yatseniuk 2 ultimatums to resign. First 3 months, then 3 weeks. Oh, and 3 more MPs left BPP.

[Mentalist]

Past month has been a whole bunch of white noise- Nadiya Savchenko's trial in Russia wrapped up, she's been found guilty and today they read her sentence- 22 years in prison.

Since she's an MP, and the national "Joan of Ark", it's all the high-profile politicians are talking about. Trying to bring attention to issues like "what about a new Cabinet?" and "is there still a coalition?" is basically useless in the face of the "Free Savchenko" rhetoric.

So i've been following headli
nes, mostly. Hoping to do some in-depth catch-up over the long weekend to try to see if I can figure out where things might be going from here.

Hopefully, more to follow soon.

Edit: things happening this week. Few of them good. Seems to be Counter-Revolution, Act 2. Not quite sorted it all out, watch this space on Thursday.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 29 March 2016 - 06:26 PM

[Mentalist]

It should surprise no-one that I didn't have much time to write past week. I'm still nowhere near caught up on the news- I've been quite out of most loops for the past 2 months, but we're getting to the point where headlines are consistent enough to paint the picture pretty clearly. And it's a grim one.

Ok, I'll start off with some okayish/good news: the frontlines are pretty stable. In Feb/March, ZSU actually made some gains in the "grey zone" b/w each sides' fortified lines. The industrial zone south of Avdiyivka (NNE from Donetsk), which terrorussians used as cover to snipe our pickets- having troops there compromises their ability to use the direct road between Donetsk and Horlivka. Also, ZSU occupied the town of Zaytsevo, which is a north-eastern suburb of Horlivka. There's occasional shelling in a few other spots (my dad's second cousin is currently in Mar'yanka directly west from Donetsk last time my dad spoke about him to my aunt she relayed that when she called him, she could hear the machine-gun fire in the background). There's a threat that once the leaves are back on the trees and the mud dries up, terrorussians may make another push, but overall, the front is pretty optimistic. The rest of the country- not so much.

Politics: okay, where to start? So, the coalition's pretty much officially dead (except no one is saying it, so as not to actually START the countdown to new elections). But parties are struggling to re-found it. "Samopomich" (no 3 in the popular vote in the last election) has pretty much flat out refused to go back to the coalition. Radical Party and Batkivshyna (Tymoshenko's party) are jockeying for privileges- Tymoshenko is playing the populist, demanding lower gas and electricity tariffs for the population.

BPP apparently lost all limits in their power-trip- they've actually voted out two dissenting MPs- Yehor Firsov, who is a young, Donetsk-based revolutionary who originally came from Klytchko's UDAR, and Mykola Tomenko, who's one of the veterans of the national-democratic camp. Both were elected by popular vote in BPP's party list, but left the BPP fraction in the Rada in opposition to the Pres' policies. And the Pres had the rump of the party vote on stripping them of their posts.

Unfortunately, this was only one of many signs of the "counter-revolution". The office of Prosecutor-General remains the main battlefield against systematic corruption. The current PG, Shokin, was Poroshenko's compadre a actively interfered with all attempts to reform his office. Earlier, the Georgian reformer Sakvarelidze (part of Saakashvili's team) who started out as PG's vice, was "sentenced" to Odessa, after his team arrested the chief Prosecutor of Kyyiv, in the "diamond prosecutors" case. The people in question were part of Shokin's "family", so he acted to shut down the case. 2 weeks ago, the leading prosecutor, the one who filed the claim, was "reassigned", as was his entire team. This was seen as a major blow, in an attempt to make the case basically go away on court technicalities.

Poroshenko was catching a lot of flak for Shokin- including from the US, who saw him as a barrier to the struggle against corruption. He was supposed to be gone last fall, but the Pres kept stalling. Last week he finally announced that he's ready to let him go (he submitted the request to the Rada, which voted on it). But before he did that, the office of the PG fired Sakvarelidze- to ensure the new PG will remain loyal to the Pres, and no "outsider" could get appointed.

Overall, things are taking a very "conservative" turn. When it became clear that PM Yatseniuk will probably be gone soon, talks started about who'll replace him (and who will get enough votes to be voted in). There was strong buzz that the job was offered to the American-born Finance Minister Yaresko (part of the "Varangian squad" of foreign reformers in the Cabinet). But she made some requests that were incompatible with the Pres (basically she asked for free reign in picking ministers, based on merit and not political expediency), and so that plan was shelved. Instead, the most likely candidate is now Volodymyr Groysman, the current speaker of Rada, BPP head and former mayor of Vinytsya- Poroshenko's home city and electoral "base". Right now the "new" coalition is scrambling to get the votes necessary to vote him in to resume "business as usual"

The problem with the current Cabinet (for Poroshenko) is the fact that Minister of Interior (aka, police) Avakov isn't "his" man- he's a former Tymoshenko MP, who left her for Yatseniuk's team, and he's been minister ever since the Revolution. The reformed National Guard that's been used in the war, as well as the reforming patrol police are all Avakov's sphere of influence. Pres controls the Prosecution, Ministry of Defense and the Security Service. Courts don't count, b/c they can be bought and sold. The only thing Poroshenko lacks to re-establish monopoly on power is control over police. And he's stubbornly pushing for it, with no regard for the reputation losses.

NYT did an editorial on him recently, basically pointing out that reforms aren't happening, Poroshenko's "family" is stifling them, and IMF shouldn't throw any more money at the problem until they see some results. Poroshenko is also apparently one of the figures involved in PanamaLeaks, but that's too fresh for me to really comment.

Oh, and you may remember me mentioning that "Samopomich" managed to win the right to a repeat election in Kryvyj Rih mayoral race. They did, it happened on Sun, and it was a total flop-the current pro-russian/old system mayor Vilkul was re-elected with 70%. Predictably, the "pro-west" parties couldn't get their shit together and rally behind a single candidate. Somewhat surprisingly, SP made the moronic decision not to back Miloboh (the local candidate who went neck in neck with Vilkul and allegedly lost by less than 200 votes, giving SP grounds to cry foul play), but instead tr to push the candidacy of the MP Semen Semenchenko, the former leader/organizer/spokesperson of the "Donbass" volunteer battalion, who had NOTHING to do with Kryvyj Rih. When I first heard of that decision, I expected the whole thing to flop, to be honest, but the 70% margin is still stupefying. SP is, unfortunately, not handling its national political image very well, and its attempts to play "constructive opposition" are seen by many as pure whining. Although one point they ARE able to consistently (and quite rightly) hammer the Pres on is his stubborn shirking his constitutional duty to change up the Central Electoral Committee, whose mandate ran out in 2014. They insist on a new CEC and amended electoral legislation (shifting to open-lists PR) prior to any new elections. The new electoral system was one of the coalition's promises and was to be implemented in first quarter of 2015. But despite having a few decent constructive suggestions, SP hasn't demonstrated any "big picture" strategic vision that'd allow it to justly claim the role of a leading national reformist political force. It's arguably the closest UA has to one, but it's way sub-par for the task.


There's other stuff, like the "amber mafia republic" in western UA, in the forests and swamps bordering Poland and Belarus, but this post is getting looong. Suffice it to say, things are slowly unraveling everywhere (except the war). The future does not look promising.

[Mentalist]

PM Yatseniuk done gone resigned last night.

Apparently, tomorrow NF (Yatseniuk's party) + BPP (Pres. Poroshenko's party) will found a new coalition, and Groysman, current Rada speaker from BPP will be nominated as PM.

It remains to be seen how stable this new coalition gonna be. The 3 smaller "pro-Western" parties are against this coalition, the 2 "MP groups" with approximately 20 ppl each are flexible with selling their votes (the coalition can't formally adopt them, b/c these MPs voted for the "dictatorship laws of January 16" in 2014-the eevent which precipitated the escalation of violence during the Revolution).

Tomorrow should be veeery interesting

[Mentalist]

So, Rada was supposed to make new coalition, dismiss Yatseniuk an vote in Groysman and a new Cabinet yest, but that still hasn't happened.

LOTS of horse-trading going b/w BPP and NF. BPP picked up 3 more independent to join up. Not 100% sure on the numbers now, but together the " parties ought to have 230 votes or thereabouts-provided everyone shows up to vote.

As usual, the talking heads are discussing "package votes"- do multip things with a single vote. Essentially, no one really trusts each other, so by making "package votes" the possibility of one "coalition partner" screwing over another is somewhat reduced.

In theory, the voting should happen tomorrow. Is it going to actually? Who knows

[Mentalist]

Hum. Welp, there's now a new Cabinet. Conspicuously missing is the Minister of Health- the various branches of the pharmaceutical mafia haven't reached a mutually agreeable consensus, it would seem.

What we have now is a Cabinet w/o a coalition. It was voted in, with 240 smth votes- and BPP +NF combined had about 205 (with 226 needed for majority). The remaining 40 came from the 2 "MP Groups"--"Power of the People" and "Rebirth"- which are made up exclusively of FPTP district winners, who used to be part of Yanukovych's Party of Regions--local "big business" who needed political protection and the MP immunity.

Now, both BPP and NF, being the "revolutionary", "Maydan" parties (in name, if not in spirit), are morally barred from openly joining a coalition with "the old regime"--especially since the bulk of these outsiders were implicated in voting for the "Dictator Laws of January 16th", which tried to make mass gatherings and protests illegal--leading to increased police action, and the backlash that lead to eventual escalation (Molotow fireworks on Hrushevsky St; first deaths; Heavenly Hundred; Revolution; annexation of Crimea; the war).
The other "Maydan" parties- Radical party, Tymoshenko's Bat'kivschyna, and the (much reduced) Samopomich all adopted staunch opposition rhetoric, along with the rump of the old Party of Regions (now quantly known as the Opposition Block).

This weekend i'll have to have a good look-see on how many "independents" BPP managed to rope in, but it seems pretty clear that right now the "Coalition" exists only on paper, and in some politicians' fevered dreams. This makes the whole construct incredibly unstable- leading me to believe the new Cabinet will triple their efforts to suck the country dry before it's sacked, which shouldn't take long.

Ideologically, this is a major step back to the pre-revolution "business as usual". Poroshenko ma have gained more bodies in the Cabinet (although NF's Avakov remains police chief), but he's now bound even tighter to the multiple oligarch groups, as he's now desperate for their votes. And, of course, there' now nowhere near a constitutional majority (300 votes)- meaning any Donbas-related issues are permanently o ice.

I'm highly skeptical about the new Cabinet's potential when it comes to reforms, as it's been practically picked clean of any people who aren't loyal to one of the 2 parties' leaders and their "investors". The "foreigners" invited to help the reforms along in 2014 have all been removed, as were the local, "maydan-born" civil society picks- such as the Minister of Education, whose appointment was vetted by a large coalition of student and teaching staff bodies in the wake of the Revolution.

On the other hand, i'm expecting the West to see this development as a success, seeing the "pragmatic" consensus among the elites. What I hope to hear is a very hard-line "no visible reform results, no funding" stance, but somehow I doubt it'll be that easy.

[EmperorMagus]

@Ment

https://youtu.be/jB54XxbgI0E?t=7m25s

The whole video is interesting, but I'm curious regarding your thoughts, specially about his Ukraine comments.