[Gust Hubb]

Hey Ment, what is new these days? I saw that Putin is now talking about how the annexation of Crimea was planned long before it happened. Surprised there hasn't been more news swirling around that (though I guess the assassination of Nemtsov is overshadowing it).

[Nicodimas]

I would like a update too..For them to come out and say this..tac nukes?

http://www.independe...a-10100241.html
http://america.aljaz...-in-crimea.html

Seriously though who are they going to use these on??

[Mentalist]

I've had a ton of stuff on my plate the past week, coupled with the fact that Uki/Russian social media were literally ablaze with wild speculation about Russian officials' 10 day-long media blackout, including no showings of VVH, which prompted wild speculations of a palace coup, illness, deaths, and other fun stuff. Then today he had to spoil it all by apparently meeting with the Kyrhiz president.

Aaanyhow, yeah. Things are touch and go as far as the "peace" is concerned. There's rumblings that UA's backing off the Minsk deal somewhat, adopting the formalistic, but ever-so-reasonable position of "no political or economic freedoms for the separatists untill we get our border with Russia back", which is sure to be problematic. That being said, UA got its IMF loan (to be used in paying off interest on earlier loans), there's no immidiate risk of default, so things are settling a little bit.

I've been so far behind in translations it's not even funny, but there's a neat article from 2 Tuesdays ago that recently went up, that gives a neat picture of just how fucked up the Uki economy's been these past 23 years.

Re: your nuclear worries: I got nothing for you I haven't said before. VVH is blackmailing the West (doing an admirable job, I must add), saying "screw the sanctions, we've got our "national -nteerests" to worry about". And the 86% of plebs (a bit over half because they believe it; the rest becuase they're convinced any alternative would be even worse) give their acquiescence, loud or silent. And since the West is thinking, "oh if we up the sanctions, they may escalate, and we REALLY don't want that", we are looking at a "slow appeasement", where the "we condemn this outrageous behaviour" rhetoric is there, but few serious actions to back it up.
Not that UA's being particularly helpful (the Rada will pass sanctions against Russia when???), but that's a tad beyond the point. VVH is redrawing borders in Europe AND he's gloating about it openly. And the collective West is just going "well, yes, it's terrible, but if we do something, it may get even worse!"

So there. No good news right now. Even UA's short term best case scenario--Russian instability and possibly civil war + fragmentation--is not good news, because for the West it's their worst nightmare come to life.

Certainly is an interesting time to be alive, though.

[Tapper]

In an itnerview with the Guardian, Donald Tusk (President of the EU Council) said that he wants to prolongue the sanctions against Russia when the EU convenes about them in the summer, iirc he called that absolutely crucial.

Of course, he is the intermediary only, and the Greeks for example will try and tie any discussions about prolonguing the sanctions to additional help with their financial stability. Thus, blackmail is to be expected, but the Ukraine ought to be really glad that Tusk is Polish, has good ties with Berlin and is not afraid to lean the UK/US way in international policies.

Full article here.

http://www.theguardi...anctions-russia

[Mentalist]

I've been absent from the thread.

Partially it's due to the lots of personal stuff--my grandparents are living with us now, and I've had to make some adjustments, being the only loving grandson of 2 elderly grandparents, and also living in a 5-person house instead of a three person one. Most importantly, my mom (as it's her parents) is near constantly on a verge of a breakdown due to to stress overload, so both me and my father had to seriously pitch in with just about everything around the house.

As such, lots less free time (add to this work picking up at this not quite opportune time).
That's not the only reason, ofc. I'm once again entering an emotional trough as far as teh emotional rollercoaster of following Ukrainian politics is concerned. Not only must I tone this stuff down for the sake of the aforementioned grandparents (who fall somewhere between passively pro-Russian and "against everyone" in the spectrum), but there's also a distinct lack of clarity following the temporary lull in the fighting.

As I've mentioned before, no one really believes it will last. The fact that there IS a "ceasefire", however inevitably prompts politicians to do what they do best-act like self-interested idiot pricks and burn the house down around them in the process.

The latest bit of the drama is an oligarch showdown b/w the Pres and the govt on one side, and Ihor Kolomoysky, the oligarch-cum-governor of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Who also owns the biggest bank in UA, "Privat Bank". Who also had an oil transit monopoly, despite the oil industry being largely state-owned.

Basically, the parliament has taken steps to break that monopoly, and Kolomoysky's not having it, pretty much blackmailing open armed resistance (as Dnipropetrovsk Oblast is the home of several volunteer battalions which many link back to Kolomoysky's funding).

I really don't like the story, as I don't have enough info to make an informed judgement on this. Basically I don't like the power Kolomoysky the oligarch is amassing, but I'm not enamored with the Pres' team seizing any more assets either, as their record in managing is less than stellar. And Pres Poroshenko is himself an oligarch who STILL maintains operating sweets factories in Russia. Despite the Constitution expressly forbidding the Pres to own any kind of business.


There's lots being written on this and many other topics. With the Russians apparently only waiting for the end of teh thaw before resuming hostilities, the in-fighting right now seems like a farly suicidal idea. And yet it surprised no one.

[Mentalist]

I'm back from another long blackout. Fully intending to get back into things in tthe next week or so.

The latest controversy are the 2 russian GRU (Chief Interrigence Coommand (military)) spetznaz officers that we captured after an abortive raid on Schastya on the weekend. Both confessed to be in active service and claimed they were ordered into Donbas. This is a big deal, because the Russian MoD is actually tacitly admitting these are their boys. Following earlier claims that they were "LNR police officers", the Russian MoD has made statements along the lines of "these two are not in active service right now, but we demand you return our "ex-soldiers" and treat them as PoWs, imstead of terrorists". The point is, the MoD is trying to both impress on its own soldiers that "no one gets left behind", while maintaining the diplo-speak "we are not really there".

This comes as the tug of war called "the loser gets to feed Donbas" between UA and Russia continues. In essence, it's exactly what it sounds like-Russia is now advocating for a Ukrainian constitutional reform, giveing Donbas autonomy and more say in foreign policy, in exchange for Ukraine feeding and rebuilding it. It sounds like a lucrative proposal of a sort to the West (esp EU), who are tired of sanctions and want "peace".

The problem, of course is with those pesky Ukrainians. Due to a near pathological irreverence we feel towards government, any attempt Poroshenko makes to appease the West and Putin by "recociliating" Donbass with anything more than a cultural autonomy will likely cause another Maydan. The people have, overall, accepted that "reforms are inevitable" (though, to be honest, few know what "reforms" mean, and of those who learn, majority, upon hearing about austerity and the further expected decline in standards of living start to fervently wish they could go back to the quiet, pre-Revolution days of "stable rotting"), and most are savvy enough to realize that accepting any kind of compromise with Donbas would be akin to Russia fostering Chechnya onto itself-with the radical difference being that Ukraine doesn't have the oil billions Russia does (or did) to keep the militant Chechens fed, appeased and happy. So, in a situation "have peace, no reforms, and a bunch of entitled semi-criminals lording over the rest of the country while calling us fascists and continuing to resent us" and "have war/ATO, try to get some reforms done, keep the entitled-people-that-hate-us beyond a makeshift border and claim Russia occupied them, so it's responsible for feeding them", the public opinion is swinging fairly strongly towards the latter option-straight down to the "let the People's Republics" have their "independence", and let's see if they'll sink or swim on their own". This last scenario is, of course, a problem for Moscow-because for people at home it'll have to "take the fellow Russians under its wing", but economically that would mean "more sanctions, and even bigger drain on economy". The year of war has devastated the region's industry-most promising factories were taken to Russia proper, many others cut apart for scrap. Mines are flooded, there's a very real threat of an ecological disaster (chemicals, spills, all kinds of fun stuff), unemployment is high. The Donbas lord-oligarch Akhmetov has finally ordered that his supermarket and gas station chain operating there be shut down. It's safe to say, the region is being blockaded, which is putting it on a brink of a humanitarian disaster. And, as heartless as it sounds, most "mainland" Ukrainians see it as justice. They see the massive turnouts at the so-called "independence referendums" last year as betrayal, and now they feel that the "traitors" are enjoying the "fruits of their independence".

Meanwhile, sporadic fighting on the frontline continues. Almost every day, you hear about at least one casualty of the past 24h.

How long can this go on? No one really knows. But soo far no one's budging. Neither side's ready to quit. People are dying.

[Mentalist]

I've been rather absent from writing. Multiple other commitments (working from home, getting PD courses done, family stuff, sports). I have a next bunch of stuff to translate printed, aiming to do it over the upcoming weekend.

The situation in the East continues to stew. Prior too the G7 Summit, terro-Russians attempted a westward push out of Donetsk into a suburb/ rayon center of Mar'yinka. It didn't goo well, because the ZSU eventually got their act together, pulled out the heavy artillery, and started to turn waves of attacking separatists into corpses.

Reported casualty numbers vary greatly based on who you ask, so I won't try to give any numbers, suffice that it was hard for both sides.

The G7 summit was a coup de grace in the latest batch of perceived "anti-russia" international moves -including the FIFA thing, which many see as a threat to FIFA 2018 in Russia, and the resignation of the OSCE mission head, who is thought to be pro-Russia, based on her reports on the Georgian war in 2008.

Anywho, the G7 talked a lot about keeping the sanctions going, and Russia wan't pleased. So today the DNR and LNR have presented their draft of constitutional amendments, recognising the "separate regions of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts with special status", or ORDILOSOS for short in the local speak, to be "integral parts of the united Ukrainian state". In exchange, the terro-Russian leaders demanded that UA recognise their "elected" position, that the "armies of Novorossiya" be converted inro local "Militia", and that UA pay for everything.

[Mentalist]

UA had a local election yesterday. Naturally, I got pulled into following what's happening there again.
More details incoming once there are official details. For now, a general comment: forget people fantasizing about "corporate feudalism" in a not-too-distant future (a reference to the new Deus Ex): UA's oligarch politics are neo-feudalism at its best. With international focus shifting to Russians in Syria, the "counter-revolution", a the next loop of the spiral are unfolding, and local power politics are at their peak.

[Mentalist]

So,a week later. I still don't have a pretty colour-coded map to show you. Because the official counting's not done. Oh, and it may not get done cuz there's a chance a civil war may start soon.

Basically, this was local elections on all levels (Oblast, Rayon, city/town/village), including mayoral elections. In cities with over 90k voters, mayoral elections were to be done in 2 stages: if no single candidate got 50%+1 vote in round one, 2 top candidates would have a runoff.

The elections were a big deal, b/c the new Constitution is supposed to give local govt more powers, and bigger budgets; also, with lots and lots of talk about the Rada not working well, and the coalition being rocky, there's buzz about a new parliamentary election in the spring, and so all major players were planning to use the local elections to gauge their support, and also to start up campaigning for that.

the Pres went into the election having absorbed the "People's Front" party of the PM Yatseniuk (whose own popularity is close to the negatives right now, following a severe economic downturn (y'know, with the war, and IMF austerity things, and nothing being done about corruption)). The Pres also pretty much devoured Vitaly Klytchko's UDAR (Ukr. Democratic Alliance for Reform) party--Klytchko allied w/ Pres in the pres. elections and became mayor of Kyyiv, but hasn't done anything with his party since, and it's been pretty much gobbled up by the Pres' "solidarity" party, which is a typical "leader-based big business" party, of a kind that dominate UA politics--more of a "club for people with same interests" than a party proper.

Since the Revolution and the War, the typical "West v East" lines got rather blurry. The ex-pres Yanukovych's Party of Regions, which was a pro-Russian monolith in the East and South has disintegrated. The die-hards cobbled together the Opposition Block, which is the only "Russia is our friend, the Revolution was coup, there was no invasion of Donbass, we "lost" Crimea"- party left--these guys still haven't said "Russia annexed Crimea" officially. But there were a lot of local "big businessmen" who were part of the Party of Regions because they needed to be part of the party in power, but without any kinds of real ties to it. These guys became the base of several new political projects.

"Our Land" was a party composed mostly of current mayors who wanted to keep their seats and basically became an "association of local ruling bodies", who gravitated close to Pres Poroshenko, and promised their loyalty in exchange for being allowed to keep their positions.

"Rebirth" was initially a group of ex-Part of Regions MPs, most of them having been eelcted in FPTP districts in Kharkiv oblast. Word on the streets was that they found a new sponsor in the oligarch Kolomoyskyj.

Kolomoyskyj, whose "power base" is in Dnipropetrovsk city, and also the oblast, had strong connections to the local volunteer movements (including funding hospitals to deal with the influx of the wounded form the ATO), as well as to the volunteer battalions in the war--Dnipropetrovsk oblast borders Donetsk oblast, and the eastern rayons became a springboard for reconquest of large portions of western and southern Donbass; lots of units had their training camps and bases there. Following the crackdown on the volunteer battalions in the spring and summer, as well as the Pres' increasingly hostile stance towards Kolomoysky's group, his right-hand man, Korban organised a new party, called UKROP (UKR. Organization of Patriots)--adopting a meme that was originally a slur used by pro-Russians to describe Uki troops, but which Uki bloggers turned--rebranding it as "UKRayinskyj OPir (Ukrainian resistance)". The actual word "ukrop" means "dill" in Russian. The site I used to write for was called "Ukrop news", as it was "the news of Ukrainian resistance". I suspect the reason the admin of the site went MIA had to do with Korban's hijacking of the brand.
-Anyhow, all that you really need to know about it is that the party UKROP positioned itself as a fairly right-wing, severely anti-Russian, and steadily opposed to the Pres for his conciliatory stance on Donbass, which was seen as giving in to the Russians--tapping into a fairly widespread sentiment.

(DISCLAIMER: I'm not trying to lionize Kolomoysky and the Dnipropetrovsk crew. They are sharks, same as any other Uki oligarchs, whose main concern is their own well-being, status, and wallets. But I have to give credit where it's due: in the early days of the war, they took a very aggressive anti-Putin stance, and they made Dnipropetrovsk a bastion of pro-UA sentiment, and a steady anchor from which control could be kept over the rest of the South and East. It is no exaggeration to say that if back then they didn't pick this side, and either stood aside, or supported the pro-Russian movement (instead of quashing it, with prejudice), then UA would not be around right now--at least not the way it is now. And they poured a lot of talent and money into keeping things running, setting up volunteer movements, charity funds, helping to equip both the Army and volunteer battalions, etc. Of all the "big names", they've done the most to create teh impression that their interests are actually aligned with ongoing existence of free UA. )

Prior to the election, we've seen some concerning authoritarian swings from the Pres. Along with the volunteer battalions mentioned above, there was also a crackdown on the right-wing "Svoboda" party. This started in August, following a rally in front of the Rada on the day they voted on amending the constituion as per the Minsk agreements- granting the occupied territories in Donbass "special status" and limited self-governance. When the vote carried through, a soldier on leave, reputedly a member of "Svoboda" threw a grenade at the police cordon. Several people were killed, and there was a wave of arrests against top "Svoboda" functionaries.

The vote on the Constitution, which passed despite part of the coalition refusing to vote (a number of ex-Party of Regions MPs provided the missing votes). prompted the Radical Party to leave the coalition. Radical Party was essentially a PR project of several oligarchs to gather the naive right-wing votes and, ideologically, its no big loss. But quickly after, Prosecutor-General, who is a relative of the Pres, pressed charges against one of the MPs from the Radical party, and he was arrested in September. Although there are indeed several shady things with said MP's bio, nevertheless this feels like a slap in the face given that a much bigger number of ex-top dogs from the old regime, a number of whom were actively involved in separatism in South and East when the war just started, many of whom were complicit in many of Yanukovych's crimes, strut around the country untouchable as ever, while the govt is turning a repressive eye to those whom common sense would label as "patriots"

So, then, this was the situation going into the elections. The main spotlight was on the mayoral races, and the focus was on 5 cities: L'viv, Kyyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa, and Dnipropetrovsk. Given Donetsk is still occupied, these were the biggest cities in the country, and each one strategically important. Here are the details:

1) L'viv. My hometown, the undisputed "capital of Western Ukraine/Ukrainian nationalism". Also home of the "Self-Help" party, which is lead by Andriy Sadovyj, the current mayor of L'viv, and which made a big splash coming in third in last years' parliamentary election. The party is, at its core another "leader-based big business" project, which relies on Sadovyj's media empire to promote itself. Sadovyj, however, isn't anywhere close to the "big league oligarchs", nad his proximity to the EU border and the fact that almost every family in Western UA has someone working in the EU, and then coming back bringing home with them expectations of a "european" life, he and his party are regarded as a force that's most likely to realize the inevitability and the advantages of becoming a civilized Westernized state.

The mayoral race didn't have many surprises. Sadovyj didn't win in the first round, picking up 49.1% of votes. His closes competitor, Roman Koshulynskyj-one of ex-MPs for "Svoboda", former vice-chairman of the Rada and probably "Svoboda"'s most likable member- got about 14%. There'll be a runoff, but there's a clear expectation that it'll be a formality.

2) Kyyiv- here the current mayor Klytchko was taking on a number of candidates. Exit polls gave him about 40% with the only real question being who will be going against him in the run-off. There were 4 possible candidates-
-another ex-mayor Omelchenko (one of the "Old Guard"), who ran the city way back when
-Boryslav Bereza- an MP who got elected in Kyyiv last year from one of the "rougher" neighbourhoods, nominally running as a Right Sector rep. His fame came from Right Sector vigilantes who took action "shutting down" illegal gambling dens, drug dealers' haunts, and places that sold alcohol to minors--doing the kind of work the local cops were paid off not to do.
-another ex-Mayor, Bondarenko, who ran from Yuliya Tymoshenko's "Fatherland" party
-A candidate from "Self-Help", Gusovsky--I believe he was a local businessman. "Self-Help" said they spent 80% of their campaign budget promoting him.

Exit polls gave all 4 approximately the same results, somewhere in the high single digits, sometimes with point tenth of a percent of a difference.

The results took forever in coming--the buzz was that the govt was trying its best to rig the results to have Klytcko do a runoff against Omelchenko, where the latter would stand no chance. I the end, however, Bereza took it. His chances don't seem very good, but personally I think he may have a chance in actually rousing the youth to vote, increasing the turnout (which was quite low in the first round). Also, if the Pres continues blundering with repressions like a moron (see below), I can see people voting in droves, purely to spite his "ally", Klytchko.

3) Kharkiv--the "First Capital", the biggest city in the East. its mayor, Kernes I already wrote a lot about--he held the city tight, running it completely as his "racket". For this election, he joined the "Rebirth" party, and so word has it that he's working under Kolomoysky. There's also rumours of deals he cut with the Pres, seeing as how the "pro-Western" parties in the city failed to cobble together a single strong candidate. Long story short: Kernes, whom many hold responsible for violence against Kharkiv's Maydan supporters, whom many saw as the presence behind the separatist rallies and takeovers of govt buildings last April--well he got voted in first round with almost 60% of the vote. His closes competotor (from "Self-Help", of all parties) had 14 or 16, I thing. The "Rebirth" party also took majority in City Council, and a strong showing in Oblast council--though out in the rural districts, the Pres and his party did comparatively well, nevermind they "lost" the city.

4) Odessa. Ukraine's biggest port, and also the city perilously close to the border with Transnistria--a strip of lan between Moldova and UA that broke off from Moldova in the 90s, and now asserts its unrecognised independence, using Russian guns. The oblast is also the stomping grounds of former Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili--who was appointed governor in an attempt to work his "reformer magic" on one of the most corrupt regions in the country, making of it a "window display" of "Western values". Although Saakashvili tries hard, his successes to date are fairly modest, as the local crime/govt clans are strongly entrenched.

The big thing about the mayoral race here was the acting mayor Trukhanov-a very conservative, "Old Guard", who'se been connected with pro-Russian movement, though not too strongly- v. Oleksandr (Sasha) Borovyk--one of Saakashvili's advisors. iirc, Borovyc came from back from the US as one of the "first wave" revolutionaries--he worked for the transition govt, as deputy minister of economic development. Following Poroshenko's election he got sacked- a move that was not appreciated by the IMF and several other western orgs. Saakashvili took him on as an advisor, and he ran as the "pres" candidate int eh mayoral races--and exit polls gave him a shocking result of 25%, putting him into the runoff with Trukhanov, who was supposed to get 47 or 48%.

However, shenanigans happened. Trukhanov was declared winner with 52%. There are numerous allegations of shenanigans, and several court claims filed for a recount--so far to no avail. There are indications that the central govt isn't really interested in having an uncontrollable link of governor and oblast capital mayor tackling corruption together, since that might actually lead to some kind of a result, which would affect too many well-entrenched interests--including those of the Pres. (Fun fact: latest issue of Forbes UA listed the richest people of UA. Of last year's top 10, 9 lost significant amounts of their money. One increased his worth. The Pres.)

Right now the claims are ongoing, and the result isn't quite official yet. (David Sakvarelidze, a Georgian invited in to work as deputy Prosecutor-General was "sentenced" to Odessa oblast after he launched a highly scandalous investigation into the head Prosecutor of Kyiv, finding millions in cash and diamonds in his office. The case against the "diamond prosecutor" isn't really moving, but Sakvarelidze was sent away, to make sure he didn't accidentally uncover anything else. Now that he's Head Prosecutor in Odessa Oblast under Saakashvili, he may actually get some justice done) But it sure does look like there won't be a second round, and that just like Kharkiv, the central govt "made a deal" about Odessa with the local "clan".

5) Dnipropetrovsk. Here things will get messy. The cynical pragmatism of the central govt has become evident, because it's essentially backing the former governor, and kurrent MP Vilkul for mayor. Vilkul is part of a local criminal clan from the city of Kryvyj Rih (Crooked Horn), also in the same oblast--the city is home to one of the lasrgest steelworks complex in Europe. Vilkul's father is running for mayor there. the Vilkul clan were "vassals" of the oligarch who stood behind the Party of Region- Renat Akhmetov, the "Coal and Steel King of Donbass", and in Yanukovych's times they "ran" Dnipropetrovsk oblast. Vilkul was governor during Maydan, and he's been blamed for the violent police "dispersals" of Maydan supporters in January of 2014, as well as organising shipments of "enforcers" to Kyyiv, who acted as "supporters" of the Yanukovych regime.

Running against Vilkul for Mayor is Borys Filatov- also an MP, who used to be the left-hand man of Kolomoysky. He's running from the party "UKROP", and exit-polls gave him a slight edge over Vilkul-37 over 34. Dnipropetrovsk, which has become an incredibly pro-Ukrainian during the war is an important watershed. Vilkul is running from Opposition Block, and in supporting him the Pres is essentially joining up with known separatists who harbor pro-Russian sentiments against the pro-Ukrainian, progressive part of the population.

The results have not been announced yet, but there's been numerous indications that the central govt is severely concerned with the success of UKROP (and Kolomoyskyj, who is seen as Pres' personal rival). In the city of Pavlograd, a mining town close to the border with Donetsk oblast, the current mayor, running from Opposition Block met a suddently strong (20%) challenge from UKROP candidate--a local miner, who was a soldier in the ATO, was recognised for heroism, and came back home. In an attempt to avoid a potentially unpleasant runoff (Pavlograd is recognised as Akhmetov's "sovereign territory"), the Central Electoral Committee tried to cancel the runoff. Pavlograd had 90, 200+ voters. Following the news of the surprising results, the CEK tried to pass a motion whereas "the city lost several hundred voters since we last chacked so the registry has to be updated, and it no longer falls into the category of cities that need runoffs". This caused a MASSIVE public outcry, however, so they had to back off.

UKROP's candidate is also being hard-pressed in Zaporizhzhya. There, Akhmetov has a director of a major steelworks running for mayor. Coming in distant second and third are candidates from UKROP and Pres' party. The result between them was close, and numerous observers are reporting counting shenanigans to make sure the Pres' candidate gets the runoff.

Whatever the results may be, Pres has acted--yesterday there was a massive raid by the Prosecution and the Security Service of UKROP party offices and the associated charity funds. The leader of the party, Korban was arrested, and he's being charged with creating an armed criminal group, as well as other charges. There were also talks about embezzling funds from a charity fund set up to help in the war effort. There were multiple raids on Dnipropetrovsk volunteers. Although the govt is reassuring everyone that there's nothing political about any of this, no one is impressed. This is looking especially bad for the Pres in light of the fact that UKROP's main competition is a person directly associated with the old regime, who is basically the local anti-thesis of everything the Revolution stood for.

So ionno. There should , ofc be a runoff in Dnipropetrovsk b/w Filatov and Vilkul. But given everything that's going down I'm no longer sure they won't try to pull a fast one there like they did in Odessa. There's also rumbles from the other "allies" in teh coalition--one of the main MPs from "Self-Help" spoke out saying they were tipped off by sympathizers in law enforcement that there's been an order passed down to "dig" until there's some dirt found to move against "Self-Help". The whole thing is starting to look more and more like the Pres throwing in his lot with the "Old Establishment", hoping to make a deal with Russia, once he's dealt with all the "patriotic" opposition.

The runoff is scheduled for Nov 15th. Two other potentially significant runoffs will be in Kryvyj Rih (Vilkul-elder against a "Self-Help" candidate), and in Mykolayiv (Current ex-Party of Regions mayor v "Self-Help"). these are interesting, b/c they are the only "big" races in South and East where a "progressive" party candidate has a shot at dislodging "the establishment", and so they serve as "gauges" of the population's desire to see change v. how many are content with the mire they're stuck in now/want to turn towards Russia.

Things are heating up b/w oligarchs, as competition is getting more cutthroat, and most have sufficient resources to make it a real fight. There's an enormous number of unregistered guns in people's hands. The West is pushing for real, not fake reforms, which inevitably mean huge losses in their super-profits that come from preferential treatment and direct embezzlements of the budget. Russia offers a way to keep the old system, nevermind that the country's running out of resources to support it.

Since September, Crimean Tatars and volunteers have blocked all commercial traffic into Crimea. There are ongoing talks on cutting off power, but nothing's happened there.

In Donbass, in accordance with the Minsk agreements, more and more weapons are being withdrawn. Ostensibly, there's a ceasefire. In reality, people keep dying.

And we're approaching the second anniversary of Maydan (Nov 21st). I fear the worst.

[Mentalist]

Provisional update: the counting's STILL not totaaly done. But that's not why I've been remiss on writing. Really, there's some serious legislative voting to be done to fulfill EU's demands in order to be considered for a no-visa regime that's being going on, and I want to see how that actually pans out prior to commenting.

Also, worryingly, there's been more activity on the frontlines, despite the supposed "ceasefire" and withdrawal of even light artillery 15 klicks from the frontline. Some rumbles over terrorussians attempting to sabotage Minsk 2.0, now that's it's obvious the "pro-Russian" parties didn't win overwhelmingly in the local elections even in the East (well, except Donbass).

Also UA's about to launch 3rd reactor in the Rivne nuclear power plant (Western UA). Which will supposedly cover the electricity deficit caused by lack of Donbass coal to power the geothermal power plants, and eliminate the need to buy Russian electricity. Which opens up the possibility of actually cutting off power to Crimea w/o Russia having any symmetrical leverage.

More to come, i'm sure.

[Tsundoku]

Tangentially, this article ... does not fill me with confidence.

http://www.news.com....k-1227605885022

TL;DR: the Soviets thought OP Able Archer exercises in 1983 were a cover for the "real thing" and were paranoid as fuck and went to "about to push the button" status. Only the fact that the West's intelligence totally missed this and thus NATO carried on like business as usual instead of going to a higher alert status, made the Soviets hesitate and thus nothing happened.

Yay incompetence.

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 12 November 2015 - 05:04 AM

[amphibian]

Mentalist, on 11 November 2015 - 02:57 PM, said:

Also UA's about to launch 3rd reactor in the Rivne nuclear power plant (Western UA). Which will supposedly cover the electricity deficit caused by lack of Donbass coal to power the geothermal power plants, and eliminate the need to buy Russian electricity. Which opens up the possibility of actually cutting off power to Crimea w/o Russia having any symmetrical leverage.

What a big and bold move.

I'm paying attention to this, Mentalist, but I don't know the players, the history, or the geography well enough to contribute. So I'm quietly listening and loving how you summarize what you do touch upon.

[Tsundoku]

Didn't know whether to put this here or in the US politics thread. Settled on here because of the references to Russia.

http://www.theatlant...-policy/415614/

It's a short article, but the TL;DR version is summed up by the title and last sentence:

"The Mindless Logic of Republican Foreign Policy", and
"It doesn’t really matter where American foreign policy leads, as long as America leads."

To his own shock, the writer has something semi-positive to say about Trump.

This post has been edited by Tsundoku: 15 November 2015 - 09:16 AM

[Mentalist]

Uki perspektive on the whole "Russia in Syria" thing is very simple: "the more enemies they make, the better. The more soldiers they send to fight (and die) in the Middle East, the less resources they'll have to use against us".

That being said, there's non-stop speculation a la "VVH will swap helping USA in Syria for US not interfering in UA". Personally, I don't see that happening, but then again, I'd have assumed the US may have realized by now how counter-productive their involvement in the Middle East has been for a while now.

Th runoff mayoral elections happened to in about 30 cities across UA. No results as of yet. Bunch of exit polls, but most are of dubious value. More on that later.

[Mentalist]

Ha. Well it was bound to happen. The Tatars who've been running the "blockade" of Crimea since mid-September finally got tired of begging the govt to do smth. Instead, on the 2nd anniversary of Maydan, they blew up the power lines to Crimea.

More on this stuff and election results later today.

[Aptorian]

Heard they decalred a state of emergency in Crimeria. How bad is it actually?

Are they going to freeze to death with out electricity or does the state have back-up powerplants that can run on gas, coal, diesel or something similar? Do people in the region own personal generators?

[Mentalist]

Apt, on 22 November 2015 - 04:15 PM, said:

Heard they decalred a state of emergency in Crimeria. How bad is it actually?

Are they going to freeze to death with out electricity or does the state have back-up powerplants that can run on gas, coal, diesel or something similar? Do people in the region own personal generators?

They've apparently enough diesel-powered generators for about a week, if they only stick to essentials (and ration power, so that only one city district at a time's connected to the grid, in major cities)

Given there's a VERY strong sentiment in UA to prevent the govt from doing ANY repairs to those powerlines (regardless of what agreements Pres may have w/ Russia), it's hard to say how long this'll last.
The weather's pretty warm right now, but the Kerch straight ferry is out, b/c storms.

My understanding of all the commentary is, the most pressing issue would be the sewage system --that's the thing most likely to go haywire w/o continuous supply of electricity.

ATM, there's also a volatile situation in the city of Kryvyj Rih. The mayoral election there b/w the local "Lord" Vilkul and an upstart candidate from "Samopomich" was way too close. Vilkul won by about 700 votes, and the results appear v. skewed. Miloboh (candidate form Samopomich" won in 5 of the 6 city districts. Vilku's victory came from the 6th district, which isn't part of the city proper, but a town that was amalgamated in 2002. And the Vilkul had 100% support in "special" poll stations--prisons, hospitals, psychiatric wards--which is what "tipped him over". Add to that the fact that the summary protocols list more ballots received than the total number printed, and you've got plenty of room to suspect shenanigans.

In itself, this wouldn't seem shocking. The kicker is, the Pres' party seemingly made a deal with Vilkuls (Vilkul-Senior ran for re-electon as mayor of Kryvyj Rih; Vilkul-junior ran for mayor of Dnipropetrovsk against a candidate backed by oligarch Kolomoyskyy, who is seen as the Pres' biggest rival. Vilkul-Jr. lost) to support them in Dnipropetrovsk oblast-which is a key region, strategically-speaking, and which was the backbone of the entire Ukrainian defensive effort during the war. As you may imagine, seeing the Pres give thinly veiled support to the only serious remaining "pro-Russian" group in the country, so as to avoid seeing his rival get more power didn't really sit well with most people.

Right now "Samopomich" is trying to get the election decision overturned, asking for a re-count, or to annul the voting on the suspect polling stations. It's not going too well. In Kryvyj Rih, tensions are pretty high, b/c the "active" part of the population refuses to accept Vilkul as mayor. suffice it to say, things are tense. There's a local Maydan in progress, and protesters insist on alteration of the election results.

Overall, local elections weren't too exciting. The Pres' party largely maintains plurality, but it's a pretty hollow advantage- given a year ago the combine Pres' and PM's parties took majority country-wide, and right now, the main "pro-govt" force could not even secure a third of the seats in any one oblast Rada (council). Yuliya Tymoshenko's "Batkivschyna ("Fatherland") party's seen a spike in popularity, due in no small part to her populist rhetoric aimed at criticising the PM Yatseniuk and rising gas tariffs 9nevermind that was part of the IMF deal, AND smth that has to be done as implementation of the Association Agreement). Tymoshenko's got 2 mayors in Oblast centres- Cherkassy and Sumy, and a strong position for the inevitable parliamentary re-elections.
-The right-wing 'Svoboda" party made a comeback, securing 3 mayors in Western UA (Ivano-Frankivsk, Ternopil, and Khmelnytskyj).
-"Samopomich" had an okay showing despite still being the new kid on the block. They've managed to get seats in every singe Oblast Centre Rada, and in an absolutely unbelievable coup they've won the mayor of Mykolayiv--a traditionally fairly pre-Russian city in the South. The party leader, Andriy Sadovyj also confirmed his position as mayor of L'viv, the unofficial "capital of Western Ukraine"
-Opposition Block's power base continues to crumble. Although they hold plurality in 4 Oblast radas (Odessa, Mykolayiv, Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhya), only in the latter did a candidate backed up by them win mayor (and even there he was technically "self-rep").

Overall, the local election really confirmed the quasi-feudal nature of Uki politics. In several regions (Zakarpattya, Odessa, Kharkiv) local interest groups exercised their pull to carve out their own "interest zones", forcing the govt to make deals with them. Elsewhere it backfired, like in Mykolayiv--the candidate running from "Opposition Block" had the backing of oligarch Novinsky who owns several ship factories in the city. Pres' party didn't put up their own candidate in the city, essentially leaving it for the Oppositon Bloc to snatch, but Samopomich's candidate pulled off a brilliant campaign aimed at mobilizing Maydan supporters and the youth, and it paid off big time. Likewise in Dnipropetrovsk, Kolomoyskyj's candiadte Filatov managed to play up the patriot rhetoric to keep the pro-Russian Vilkul out. Kryvyj Rih, which is the secont most important city in that oblast was also essentially "won" from the pro-Russians--though I suspect this is more due to voter apathy- if voter turnout was stronger, Vilkul -Sr probably could've won "cleanly".

overall, interesting situation, though still unclear. lots of sniping b/w coalition partners due to conflicts of interest b/w party backers. not sure how this'll all pan out.

[Maark Abbott]

So I'm not sure if this is the topic to post this (and so I'll understand if this post is moved), but the Turks appear to have shot down a Russian air force jet on their border with Syria...

http://www.bbc.co.uk...e-east-34907983

[Mentalist]

Yup. One of the 2 pilots is dead.

Putin made a statement, accusing Turkey of "stabbing Russian in the back" (nvm that the SU-24 was given TEN warnings not to enter Turkish air space), and also Turkey is allied with ISIL now.

Suffice it to say, things will be interesting.

The Crimean blockade agreed to allow govt to repair one of the 4 power lines to Crimea-b/c the transforming substation it's connected to does a back-loop to a few neighbouring rayons of Kherson Oblast. That'll account for 220 Kwatts, out of the 1 Mwatt UA previously supplied.

Meanwhile, Russia and the Terrorussian puppets in DNR/LNR are already posturing that they'll cut off coal supply, grinding Uki geothrmal plants to a halt. Cabinet's unhappy, but t popular sentiment is "you f#?!ers were supposed to think of an alternative a year ago, so don't expect any sympathy cuz you were trying to keep someone's profit margins high".

Another intersting development that's not written about much is the country-wide strike of Russian long-haul truck drivers. It's caused by Russia introducing a new road tax on trucks over 12 tons, that'll be collected by a contractor wholly owned by the son of one of Putin's bestest oligarch friends, the Rottenberg brothers.
Russian media's been pretty hush-hush about it, but today there was apparently a confrontation with cops somewhere on the road to Yekaterinburg...

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 24 November 2015 - 02:50 PM

[Andorion]

Putins navy and air force are highly active over Syria but can their economy support such a campaign long-term?

Also does Ukraine have any trade ties with big coal exporters?