[Tapper]

QuickTidal, on 24 February 2022 - 01:56 PM, said:

Waiting to see if Canada sends troops, at which point my brother in law (who is still active military) will be called to go. Hoping that doesn't happen for the sake of my wife's sister and her three little ones.

NATO might decide to send troops to Poland (the US), the Baltic states (as Germany has done so far) or Rumania (the US again), but I think humanitarian aid missions are the most likely for now. Most countries withdrew their military personell involved in training the Ukrainian soldiers.

[Puck]

Macros, on 24 February 2022 - 12:48 PM, said:

Wifey asked me why Putin was invading Ukraine this morning.

I couldn't find an answer that didn't make me sound like a world weary cynical asshole.

I see this heading towards someone flapping a bit of paper about, proclaiming they have secured peace in our time.

Is Czech '38 all over again, except the prize is much more valuable to Russia than Czech was to Germany

His pretense is to save the poor Russians that are being oppressed within Ukraine's eastern territories by the evil nationalists*. He needs some heartstring-pulling cause to unite Russian citizens behind because Russian's economy is tanking and democratic movements are rearing their heads all around, see Belarus, Kazachstan, Ukraine... The Russians are buying it, sadly.

*Now, Ukraine does have an issue with nationalistic movements, but those all build on the 2014 revolution, so again, those movements are essentially caused by Russia. Even with those, there is no oppression of Russians** going on. They are using the fact that government offices and schools have transitioned to being Ukrainian language only as a pretext.

**That includes my family and people I know because we're from the Kharkiv region and I can essentially only repeat what I am told, so make of that what you will.

[QuickTidal]

Tapper, on 24 February 2022 - 02:22 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 24 February 2022 - 01:56 PM, said:

Waiting to see if Canada sends troops, at which point my brother in law (who is still active military) will be called to go. Hoping that doesn't happen for the sake of my wife's sister and her three little ones.

NATO might decide to send troops to Poland (the US), the Baltic states (as Germany has done so far) or Rumania (the US again), but I think humanitarian aid missions are the most likely for now. Most countries withdrew their military personell involved in training the Ukrainian soldiers.

From what I understand job 1 is sanction the crap out of Russia...but the problem with sanctioning a country as big as Russia is that it will have little to no effect considering its size and breadth of existing resources, and boots on the ground don't come til after that. Still, it's a nebulous concern in the back of our heads.

[Mentalist]

Macros, on 24 February 2022 - 12:48 PM, said:

Wifey asked me why Putin was invading Ukraine this morning.

I couldn't find an answer that didn't make me sound like a world weary cynical asshole.

I see this heading towards someone flapping a bit of paper about, proclaiming they have secured peace in our time.

Is Czech '38 all over again, except the prize is much more valuable to Russia than Czech was to Germany

Czechs didn't fight back. Ukraine is going to fight to the end.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Tsundoku, on 24 February 2022 - 07:30 AM, said:

When dictators with nukes decide to go rogue, what can you do?

Serious question.

'Ukraine: Russian invasion leaves Baltics wondering if they are Moscow's next target

People in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania fear that they may be at risk

[...] Baltic government leaders in recent weeks have shuttled to European capitals, warning that the West must make [...] Putin pay for attacking Ukraine, or else his tanks will keep rolling toward other parts of the former Soviet empire.

"The battle for Ukraine is a battle for Europe. If Putin is not stopped there, he will go further,"'

https://www.independ...a-b2022133.html

... and then the Balkans. Coordinating with China to help divert the west's resources as it takes Taiwan. (But by that time Trump may be in power, ready to invade---Mexico, as he suggested? Then again I'm sure he could come up with myriad ridiculous pretexts for invading Canada, if he felt like it (or Putin felt like it would be a useful distraction...). Though all he'd have to do to cripple NATO is refuse to act---and perhaps conspire to take out the nuclear capabilities of the UK and France.)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 24 February 2022 - 03:59 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

[Mentalist]

Sanctions need to grind Russia to a fucking halt.

Ban any hi-tech exports to Russia, crush the Big 5 banks, revoke all software licenses.

When people are forced on the streets, they get angry. If Rosgvardiya needs to be packing angry people in Moscow, St Petersburg, Kazan, etc then they can't be used as the reserves.

[Puck]

Mentalist, on 24 February 2022 - 04:42 PM, said:

Sanctions need to grind Russia to a fucking halt.

Ban any hi-tech exports to Russia, crush the Big 5 banks, revoke all software licenses.

When people are forced on the streets, they get angry. If Rosgvardiya needs to be packing angry people in Moscow, St Petersburg, Kazan, etc then they can't be used as the reserves.

This.

Everywhere on the internet I am reading that the Russian people are not its governement. But the Russian people support this overwhelmingly and they're the only ones who can change their government when they get angry enough. So they need to feel the results of their government's actions.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Macros, on 24 February 2022 - 08:46 AM, said:

Time to activate delta squad action team 6

Take him and his cronies out

Serious suggestion

Yes, but Putin and his cronies have been perfecting the art and science of assassination for decades. While the US had been assassinating plenty of people in the Middle East and Afghanistan over the last two decades, I'm not sure how well that would translate to Putin. (Drone strikes or attack helicopters in Russian-secured airspace? Extremely unlikely. Poison? That's more Putin's specialty. Trying to sneak up on him when his security is lax? Again, it seems unlikely.) Failed assassination attempt could lead to a war of assassinations, in which Putin would probably have the edge over Europe and the US (not sure how much of the old anti-Soviet intelligence apparatus is left by now)---and to Putin designating sufficiently terrible successors. (AI has probably advanced to the point where Putin could program a deepfake AI successor to carry out his vengeance---or least trigger a nuclear swan song for (most of) humanity.)

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 24 February 2022 - 04:51 PM

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Everything is fucked, on 24 February 2022 - 05:58 PM, said:

Could always hope someone on his detail does the right thing on camera. Idk

Putin had been 'embraced by many Russians for what they saw as his rationality and astute risk management. That image has been upended.'

https://www.nytimes....ia-ukraine.html

... so maybe, especially if he starts threatening nuclear war. OTOH Putin has been building up the Russian Orthodox church as a cult of war and Russian imperial glory. Perhaps he thinks the US had an edge in the Cold War with its widespread belief in an afterlife and Nixon's 'mad man' (Mutually Assured Destruction man) persona.

And apparently they're now fighting in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Where the radiation is. (Of course the current radiation levels are only likely to shorten their lifespans in the long-term, but still.... 'Hey, maybe I don't really care so much about radiation after all? Humanity might even evolve more quickly....')

https://www.nytimes....attacks-ukraine

[QuickTidal]

Azath Vitr (D, on 24 February 2022 - 04:48 PM, said:

Macros, on 24 February 2022 - 08:46 AM, said:

Time to activate delta squad action team 6

Take him and his cronies out

Serious suggestion

Yes, but Putin and his cronies have been perfecting the art and science of assassination for decades.

He's Spetznaz-trained ex-KGB isn't he? He's like the villain from a movie already just based off that.

[Puck]

Azath Vitr (D, on 24 February 2022 - 06:16 PM, said:

Everything is fucked, on 24 February 2022 - 05:58 PM, said:

Could always hope someone on his detail does the right thing on camera. Idk

Putin had been 'embraced by many Russians for what they saw as his rationality and astute risk management. That image has been upended.'

https://www.nytimes....ia-ukraine.html

... so maybe, especially if he starts threatening nuclear war. OTOH Putin has been building up the Russian Orthodox church as a cult of war and Russian imperial glory. Perhaps he thinks the US had an edge in the Cold War with its widespread belief in an afterlife and Nixon's 'mad man' (Mutually Assured Destruction man) persona.

And apparently they're now fighting in the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone. Where the radiation is. (Of course the current radiation levels are only likely to shorten their lifespans in the long-term, but still.... 'Hey, maybe I don't really care so much about radiation after all? Humanity might even evolve more quickly....')

https://www.nytimes....attacks-ukraine

There's not enough radiation in the exclusion zone to do anything to you unless you set up shop in the red forest for prolongued periods of time. Passing through for a few days does nothing.

Anyway, Russian troops have now captured the reactor ruins.

I just talked to my brother near Kharkiv and he says the news are super chaotic (understandably) and they have to rely on non-official news sources. People are trying to withdraw what money they can from the banks and buying what they can grab at the shops. All the military air bases have been bombarded. But outside the major cities it's quiet so far.

[Puck]

Double post, but since I am currently arguing on Reddit with people who keep the "the Russian people hate the Russian government!!!1" mill going, I might as well drop the statistics here, too:

According to the Levada Analytical Center (which is considered trustworthy internationally) 69% of Russians approve of Putin's actions as of January 2022. That's a rise compared to 61% in August 2021. Disapproval dropped from 44% to 39% in the same time period.

Approval of the government as a whole also rose from 46% to 53% and 50% of Russians think the country is moving in the right direction.

The Duma isn't quite as popular with a current approval rating of "only" 45%.

When asked to name the politician they consider most trustworthy, 33% named Putin. Second place got 12%.

The majority of Russian citizens support Putin. There's no sugarcoating it.

[Malankazooie]

What amount of sanctions have been placed on Russia in the past? How effective were they? And how much more (by analysis calling next shots) will upcoming sanctions have an impact (and how many more will be drawn up)? Asking, because it doesn't seem like this approach has really budged Putin.

[amphibian]

QuickTidal, on 24 February 2022 - 06:19 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 24 February 2022 - 04:48 PM, said:

Macros, on 24 February 2022 - 08:46 AM, said:

Time to activate delta squad action team 6

Take him and his cronies out

Serious suggestion

Yes, but Putin and his cronies have been perfecting the art and science of assassination for decades.

He's Spetznaz-trained ex-KGB isn't he? He's like the villain from a movie already just based off that.

He's not Spetsnaz or trained by them. He was a mid-level KGB employee who had a rather influential mentor (co-author of the Russian constitution) in college. We don't have to ascribe superhuman training or abilities to him. He's astoundingly good at navigating corruption and funneling $ towards himself and those around him. He used that over and over for upward mobility as the Soviet Union started tottering and then turned being the head of the FSB into a truly strong power base in a way that nobody after him has been able to do.

The major inflection point in his power was I think after he became premier when he said to all the oligarchs and organized crime "Ok, now I get half of what you make" and they gave him half (not fully willingly, but they did it). Mentalist has mentioned this before.

[Cause]

Why has russia siezed chernobyl? It has no tactical or strategic value?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

amphibian, on 24 February 2022 - 09:45 PM, said:

QuickTidal, on 24 February 2022 - 06:19 PM, said:

Azath Vitr (D, on 24 February 2022 - 04:48 PM, said:

Macros, on 24 February 2022 - 08:46 AM, said:

Time to activate delta squad action team 6

Take him and his cronies out

Serious suggestion

Yes, but Putin and his cronies have been perfecting the art and science of assassination for decades.

He's Spetznaz-trained ex-KGB isn't he? He's like the villain from a movie already just based off that.

He's not Spetsnaz or trained by them. He was a mid-level KGB employee who had a rather influential mentor (co-author of the Russian constitution) in college. We don't have to ascribe superhuman training or abilities to him. He's astoundingly good at navigating corruption and funneling $ towards himself and those around him. He used that over and over for upward mobility as the Soviet Union started tottering and then turned being the head of the FSB into a truly strong power base in a way that nobody after him has been able to do.

The major inflection point in his power was I think after he became premier when he said to all the oligarchs and organized crime "Ok, now I get half of what you make" and they gave him half (not fully willingly, but they did it). Mentalist has mentioned this before.

A Trump (or Trumpian post-Trump)-Russia-China alliance could use military extortion to extend that to most of the world's economic activity....

First (with Russia doing as much as it possibly can) Trump (or similar) comes to power in the US and refuses NATO obligations. Then, bargaining in secret, agrees to extend the Russia-China alliance to the United States and allow China to take Taiwan. With Russian and Chinese assistance, US military command is replaced with Trump (or similar) loyalists, democracy is further subverted, deepfake videos are deployed alongside other misinformation... VR is used for enhanced indoctrination (especially for children). Big Tech's surveillance and targeting mechanisms get coopted by the state. Trump follows through on his claim that other countries should have to pay if they want US protection. Putin graciously offers to 'protect' Europe for him, and China (at least) East Asia (with their nukes and the rest of their military, that is)... in exchange for a fee, perhaps some well-protected colonies in choice locations, subservient leadership, and natural resource extraction.

[Mentalist]

Cause, on 24 February 2022 - 10:39 PM, said:

Why has russia siezed chernobyl? It has no tactical or strategic value?

Shortest route from Belarus to Kyiv

Apparently we took the bridge in Kherson back and out troops are back on the Left (eastern) bank.

The problem is the Kakhovka Dam further upstream. They are funneling troops across the dam, trying to make a drive for Mykolayiv.
Still waiting on that 2and wave.

Zelensky declared General Mobilization. My older cousin and my other cousin's husband are probably gonna be joining the fighting.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 24 February 2022 - 10:47 PM

[Itwæs Nom]

Puck, on 24 February 2022 - 07:17 PM, said:

Double post, but since I am currently arguing on Reddit with people who keep the "the Russian people hate the Russian government!!!1" mill going, I might as well drop the statistics here, too:

According to the Levada Analytical Center (which is considered trustworthy internationally) 69% of Russians approve of Putin's actions as of January 2022. That's a rise compared to 61% in August 2021. Disapproval dropped from 44% to 39% in the same time period.

Approval of the government as a whole also rose from 46% to 53% and 50% of Russians think the country is moving in the right direction.

The Duma isn't quite as popular with a current approval rating of "only" 45%.

When asked to name the politician they consider most trustworthy, 33% named Putin. Second place got 12%.

The majority of Russian citizens support Putin. There's no sugarcoating it.

Since kharkov ain't that far and re this and also @Ment: have you got any realiable idea on what were the general relations between russians and ukrainians actually like, particularly in the donetsk, luhanks, crimea and neighbouring regions, pre-2014, post-2014, and pre-2022? Were those relations markedly different from the rest of the country?

oh and hell-o pretty people, long time no c

[Tiste Simeon]

Whether this will make a difference or but who knows but the UCL final has been changed from Russia and the Russian Grand Prix is cancelled/moved too.

Like I said I'm not sure it'll do much but these will hit Russia economically and I reckon that's going to do more than NATO posturing...