[Mentalist]

hrm

Minsk meeting still going. over 5 hours now.

There's been a lot of action these past few days, as everyone's been gearing up for the Minsk summit.

Monday was dominated by Debal'tsevo. or, more specifically, Lohvyno--a small village a few clicks north of it, astride the road to Artemivsk. Terrorussians captured it, thus effectively cutting off the main supply line. The whys of how they managed theat remain sketchy. The issue was a huge deal, because holding Debaltsevo and the territory on the Bulge south of it are some 8 thousand ZSU troops. Who were hard-pressed everywhere, as terrorussinas threw everything they had at trying to take this force out--which would've been a stunning victory prior to the peace talks.


Tuesday- situation around Debalt'sevo remained bad. there were several poorly coordinated attacks to take back Lohvyno. They failed. Teh reason for the named failure was a familiar one--the HQ chief Muzhenko has assumed "personal oversight" of the deblockading operation. Muzhenko's past "achievements" included ignoring all warnings of the impending Illovaysk encirclement, as well as the abortive attempt to deblockade the Donetsk Airport, which resulted in its ruins being lost, and some 30odd "cyborgs" losing their lives.

Meanwhile, further south, on the Azov sea coast, the National Guard, spearheaded by the "Azov" regiment (formerly the "Azov" volunteer battalion) began a tactical counter-offensive, pushing the Terrorussians east towards the Russian border. 6 settlements were captured that were ostensibly "neutral territory" before, in a move which the ATO command explained as "regaining the ground Ukraine holds according to the minsk agreements".
There are no real indications that this is a large-scale advance, but the move is designed to push back the Terrorussians and put Mariupol outside their shelling range.

And speaking of shelling UA-occupied cities--the DNT did just that. Again. This time it was the city of Kramatorsk--the field HQ of the ATO in the East. The Terrorussians used either a "Smerch" or "Hurricane"--one fo the two more powerful versions of the GRAD rocket artillery. presumably, they were only aiming at the Hq, located at teh city airport, but they've hit the city centre as well.
Last major piece of news on Tuesday was the vote for a new Prosucutor-General. The previous presidential appointee, Yarema proved to be incapable of reforming the hotbed of corruption that was the Prosecutor's office. Moreover, more and more questions were raised as to his own accountability. He resigned over the weekend, when it became clear the parliament was getting perilously close to gatehring up the 150 signatures neede to initiate the procedure of declaring him not trustworthy and triggering his recall.
And then, instead of bringing in a new person, the Pres dug up... a 60-somehting or other, ex-PG, who just *happens* to be a non-familial relation, "compadre" (I wrote about this institute earlier). Not only that, but this particular man had his daughter appointed deputy-prosecutor of Odessa oblast a few months back. His son and son-in-law also work in the Prosecution. Worst of all in the cituation is the fact that his candidacy was approved by the ex-Party of Regions MPs--the pro-Russian remnants of the old regime, against whom, in theory, the PG should be focusing his investigations. Essentially, it was a nice, big spit int he face of the active part of the society, in favour of the continued consensus of the "elites" I'm sure this will come back to haunt him (most likely in the local elections scheduled for the fall), if not sooner.

Anyhow, today was confusing. Supposedly, the Terrorussians holding Lohvyne found themselves surrounded, in an ironic reverse of fortunes. The Debal'tsevo group was re-supplied and their wounded were evacuated to Artemivsk. Supposedly the Terrorussians also had to shift some forces south, to deal with "Azov's" advance.
Speaking of the advance-it appears to have stalle,d somewhat. As a distraction, it achieved its goal. Given that some speculate that as a "concession" VVH is planning to take Russian troops out of the border twon of Novoazovsk (thus cutting the DNR off from teh Azov sea to prevent a contraband route being set up), it's both timely and relevant.

The negotiationes themselves are ongoing. it's extremely difficult to say anyhting concrete, but the overall mood is one of an extremely cautious and reserved optimism. Which, when translated from Uki means "it would appear the West isn't selling us out, and it seems the Pres isn't making any moronic fatal concessions either". The key point for UA is control of the border--all further steps are useless without a closed border b/w UA and RU. As long as we stick firm on this point, the public opinion in UA would consider the talks a success. there've been some unconfirmed rumours that Russian mil tech started to relocate from Donetsk further East, prompting some to hope they may be withdrawing back to Russia through Luhansk, but it's too early to tell. There were also some messages about new shelling in Luhansk itself and the environs, which have been fairly quiet since the Terrorussian offensive past August.

Its night there now, and the talks are ongoing. Hopefully, there'll be more info tomorrow. Hopefully some of it is good.

[Cause]

I still find it amazing how little coverage this gets. You would be forgiven for thinking the Ukraine did not exists in my country. I cant think of one headline that I have seen in a local paper in months. Even the wikipedia pages are not as useful as usual, it seems to think 3 protesters are the only civilian deaths in an over 11 month conflict.

[Gust Hubb]

And this is what the BBC says: http://www.bbc.com/n...europe-31435812

Sounds like its the Minsk agreement all over again but that rebel areas won't become separate from Ukraine. Is that the gist? I am looking forward to your analysis Ment.

[Mentalist]

Gust Hubb, on 12 February 2015 - 12:27 PM, said:

And this is what the BBC says: http://www.bbc.com/n...europe-31435812

Sounds like its the Minsk agreement all over again but that rebel areas won't become separate from Ukraine. Is that the gist? I am looking forward to your analysis Ment.

I've spent far too much time over the past 2 days @ work monitoring media, instead of working, so gonna make it brief.

The "contact group" (UA's rep ex-pres Kuchma, terroruusian leaders + Russian ambassador Zurabov, and the OSCE have signed "minsk 2.0"--which is a "document on the implementation of the original minsk agreements". The Normandy 4 have all endorsed it verbally, but didn't actually sign anything.

UA's blogosphere's most common comment on the situation: "keep calm, and oil your machine gun"

No one believes this will work. Yes, there's a a ceasefire planned for Sunday. Sure, withdrawal of heavy weapons. Then they start shelling us again and terrorussian leaders leaders go alL wide-eyed n claim "it's not the forces of the X people's republic, it's and armed band outside our control that's do this". And then the song and dance begins again.

Point 10 of the Implementation presumes that there are gonna be elections by Ukrainian law in the Terrorussian-held regions, and only THEN will there be "steps taken to restorecontrol over the state border to UA". Which won't work. The a priori condition for any successful regulation from the Uki Pov is control over the border--w/o that, nothing else is feasible.

So basically what we get is more stalling. Merkel and Hollande get to save face b/c "yay! Diplomacy works!". Poroshenko gets to avoid following through on hismoronic promise "if thetalks fail, i'lldeclare state owar!" that everyone knew he wasn't gonna keep anyway. VVH gets to..ionno, look like he's "unbowed before the Western imperialist" or somesuch.

And the war goes on...

[Mentalist]

As expected, the "ceasefire" which is supposed to come into effect in the next 2 hours, is not looking likely.

Terrorussians continue to assault Debal'tsevo like lunatics. The prospect of cutting off and surrounding approximately 8k Uki troops that continue to hold the biggest railway junction in Donbas and its environs, being a constant irritant in their side, is proving to be too much. the fighting over the accursed village of Lohvynove continues, as the main road from Artemivsk to Debal'tsevo remains "blocked"--that is to say, it's not blocked off by a checkpoint, by trying to get through would mean zipping under a very intense shelling, which is basically suicide. That being said, the ZSU continues to maintain control over a number of backroads, although the conditions are pretty terrible (and that's by Uki standards, which would mean the roads are practically nonexistant by Western standards, most likely), supply routes remain, there's no obvious panic the way there was with Illovaysk.

It's telling that the DNR "president" Zakharchenko has already made a statement declaring "there will be no ceasefire in Debal'tsevo". so yeah.

Meanwhile, Pres Poroshenko has made another sweeping declaration, promising to declare a country-wide state of War, if the ceasefire doesn't happen. Given his demonstrated reluctance to actually DO anything martial, the pessimist in me expects this to mean "we will "see" a ceasefire, regardless of what will actually be happening". But who knows? maybe a miracle will happen.

I'm not completely up to date with what's happening in Washington, but I've been made to understand that there's a decently-sized Congressional majority for giving UA weapons. Also Kerry spoke out for it, and the UK's been seriously critical of Russia and said they may "reconsider" their stance on not giving us weapons. hrm.

Anyhow, waiting to see what happens. The situation remains "stable, but difficult"

[Ghjhero]

http://www.telegraph...line-looms.html

In this article the rebel leader has stated that the ceasefire won't apply to the pocket in Debaltseve as the pocket is inside rebel territory. Personally I don't see how this ceasefire has any chance of holding. And if part of my country was having a rebellion supporter by one of my nation's most hated enemies I would surely want a state of war to be declared. I don't understand why it hasn't happened already.

[Mentalist]

Ghjhero, on 15 February 2015 - 01:19 AM, said:

http://www.telegraph...line-looms.html

In this article the rebel leader has stated that the ceasefire won't apply to the pocket in Debaltseve as the pocket is inside rebel territory. Personally I don't see how this ceasefire has any chance of holding. And if part of my country was having a rebellion supporter by one of my nation's most hated enemies I would surely want a state of war to be declared. I don't understand why it hasn't happened already.

Because Money.

IMF and such "supposedly" don't give money to countries that are at war. At least that's the line the govt is feeding Ukrainians for months now.

Also, the Pres is a businessman.

Also, the realization that Russia is "one of our most hated enemies" has hit the bulk (about 40-60%) of the population within the 3 week period form the start of Russian intervention in Crimea and its annexation. And politicians in UA are alway the last ones to catch up on the public opinion.

But mostly money. Oh, incidentally, the oligarch overlord of Luhansk Oblast, Yefremov was arrested in Kyiv yesterday, about half an hour prior to the declaration of the ceasefire. Plotnitsky, the "president" of LNR is his former driver. It's not a coincidence as the previous DNR leader was Yefremov's bodyguard.

See, this is what can sometimes make it so frustrating explaining this situation to an outsider--seemingly obvious things aren't being done, because there's entire networks of special interests underlying everything, and they mesh with the big geopolitical games, and at some point they intersect both the real expectations of the people AND the myths they are being fed by the media favouring each side, respectively. There's so many seemingly random inexplicable things, that only make sense in context. 50 years form now, it will make for fascinating history, I'm sure.

[Gust Hubb]

Just waiting for the other shoe to drop. If and when the U.S. gets involved, I feel like things are going to break. I just wish it would happen sooner than later. All this maneuvering is driving me bonkers and I wish someone would clobber Putin with a five iron. It's all very stressful to watch.

[Mentalist]

Cajun King, on 18 February 2015 - 05:33 AM, said:

Between this and the rapidly out of control situation ISIS is has become makes me fear for the future of not just mine but the Earths children. I hope they never have to read the word WW3 in their history books. I'm not one of those paranoid people but fuck man we are one species in a galaxy filled with stars, planets, and moons. Come together so we can turn our sights to something truly spectacular...space and surviving.

There's also Boko Haram. You don't hear much about them, but Euronews does a piece on them from time to time, and, frankly, another "mobile terrorist state" that sits on the border of several countries and requires a coordinated effort of multiple countries to put down sounds pretty unnerving.

I find it hard to write these days. The idiocy of Uki leadership saps both strength and resolve.

Debalt'sevo is being abandoned. "Supposedly", 80 percent of the troops from the Bulge are already out, and we are calling it "a spectacular achievent of our military commanders"--we avoided a destruction of our most battleicapable units, by breaking out of an encirclement we were warned by just about fucking everyone would happen. Nevermind the fact that we failed to fortify the positions so as to make them truly unassailable (despite having 4 solid months of relative peace since September); Nevermind the fact we didn't provide adequate reserves to ensure our troops would be able to make a fighting retreat, making the aggressor pay a heavy toll, instead of us having to break out of tens of min-encirclements; Nevermind that it was our own moronic "peace plan" that led to this fiasco; No, screw all that.

We minimized losses, and that makes us heroes and greatest military minds since Hannibal. And the most hated person in Uki military- the HQ head Muzhenko, the person who assumed "personal responisibility" for the Illovaysk disaster, for the abortive operation to "deblockade" the Donetsk airport, and now, foroverseeing "personally" the defence of Debalt'sevo, pulling rank over the much more competent sector commander--now he is to be lauded for his "achievement".

As a backdrop to this, the UN Security Council unanimously enforces the Minsk Agreements, in a resolution proposed by Russia, who was violating them like there's no tomorrow, while spouting about "peace".

And the diplomatic heads of the "Old Europe" are off in la-la-land, because apparently, "it's premature to talk about the collapse" of the Minsk agreements. I suppose the fact that after Uki artillery went silent our daily losses doubled compared to those during the "active" phase isn't convincing. Likewise, the fact that following a "ceasefire" Terrorussians continued their assault, capturing more territory isn't enough. I wonder what will be?
And as always, I can understand why the West doesn't want to get involved. I really do. I believe them to be misguided in their appeal to rationality of VVH, but I understand them. And so I pity them more than anything, because when the true conflict comes, the dashing of all their hopes would be all the more painful.
No, what infuriates me is that our Pres and elites are caught in the same matrix, That not only do they lack the courage to say the things they need to be saying, but they also give false hopes, then break their word, and leave us to figure out ourselves why the F they are playing this pathetic game. The latest national embarrassment of Minsk-2 and what followed is an attempt to make us out to be naive saps, to play the victin card until it dies of old aage. Not only is it demeaning, not only is it pathetic, it also doesn't work. Sure, I will gladly eat my words when the EU cuts Russia off SWIFT, but I firmly believe that the West will back down in a no-limit game of chicken. Because it's got infinitely more to lose.

And that does not fill me with optimism.

[Nicodimas]

Cajun King, on 18 February 2015 - 05:33 AM, said:

Between this and the rapidly out of control situation ISIS is has become makes me fear for the future of not just mine but the Earths children. I hope they never have to read the word WW3 in their history books. I'm not one of those paranoid people but fuck man we are one species in a galaxy filled with stars, planets, and moons. Come together so we can turn our sights to something truly spectacular...space and surviving.

I am going to be the one to say it, more than likely we have to go through yet another War, and even *more* before people as a whole realize the problem/solution. The Cabal that really rules this world and has for some time, profits off and stays in power based off war.

A small solution that is accomplishable <imvho> though:
http://market-ticker...www?post=229824

[Nicodimas]

Quote

Because it's got infinitely more to lose.

This.

Also Mentalist thanks for your analysis and updated information you have been really on top of it.

[Gust Hubb]

So, how are our European colleagues doing with this? I saw that Russian bombers buzzed the UK again. And it looks like the Minsk treaty is slowly falling apart.

[Tapper]

Gust Hubb, on 19 February 2015 - 02:06 PM, said:

So, how are our European colleagues doing with this? I saw that Russian bombers buzzed the UK again. And it looks like the Minsk treaty is slowly falling apart.

The current main news here is the ongoing negotiations between Brussels and the Greeks (BBatG would be a good punk band name, btw).

Ment hits the nail on the head when he cites the fact that Europe doesn't want to go to war over the Ukraine, nor do we want to provoke VVH into doing something really rash by supplying the Ukraine with material. There's also the question of training. You can sell a hundred Leopard tanks, but who's going to operate them? It's rather specific hardware, especially if you need to engage in tank battles with it - and the fact that the 'rebels' use them, points at Russian involvement, too. A third party sold the Ukraine 20 British old APCs last weekend, with another 55 to come, I believe - that move was quietly approved by a great many.

The sanctions seem to put the pressure on the Russian economy (and the ordinary Russians), they can be tightened and have so far done Europe almost no damage at all. It is also an instrument that the slow bureaucracy of Brussels is ideally suited to wielding, so I expect more of that: every country has already had to swallow the loss of some military/economic contracts and now that we all lost a little bit of profit, we can now act in unison in tightening the thumbscrews.

I guess European politicians are hoping that a ceasefire will become a permanent peace and after that, the Ukraine will get a ton of economic support and integration possibilities (and probably a thin red line of American advisors), but we don't know how to deal with a war on our doorstep, apart from wanting it not to spill over (to Poland or the Baltic, as they are NATO and that would force an armed conflict).

NATO is very slowly becoming more relevant again in the European mindset after being absent from it since the Yugoslavian wars, but it has become a very slow organization: the US is committed elsewhere on its solo adventures and the rest of the alliance is obsessed with cost. We know we need to start some rearmament but have few units ready, apart from Air & Special Forces, which have gained plenty of combat experience in the past decade in Iraq, Libya and Afghanistan. Those operations were also a drain on budgets however and are completely incomparable with what NATO demands (brigade sized ground forces).

When you talk about the reception of any news about the Ukraine: the well-thinking part of society thinks this is a crazy situation and sympathizes with the Ukraine. However, the comment section of any news article on Ukraine gets derailed quickly by pro-Putin supporters with complicated US-world-dominance theories.

[Mentalist]

I'm hitting another block. (warning: venting post below)

For most of this week I've been struggling and delaying working on a Sunday article which goes over just what the year post-Maydan has done in terms of change. The article's purposefully negative. I've meant to do it, and then try to respond, by listing those things I myself have have heard mentioned, not as a professional analyst whose job it is to follow this stuff, but as a somewhat-more-than-averagely interested bystander.

I've also meant to point out, again, as others have before me, that as we've chosen a "peaceful revolutuion", and thus, evolution, it's expected that there will be great resistance to the systemic changes--a much larger portion of it being passive resistance, borne equal parts of unwillingness to accept change, incompetence, malice, and ineptitude.

I've meant to. And yet...

Although I understand this perfectly well, it still hurts. It hurts a lot. Details are now surfacing about Debal'tsevo, about the numbers of casualties, about the lack of any preparation, about how it was unit commanders, bypassing the HQS, who made the decision to retreat and organized it, leaving the HQ outside the loop, to avoid the plans being compromised. And at the same time the pres approves a reform of the Army proposed by the HQ chief, Muzhenko. We've had 121 generals before. Now we will have 151. The the HQ's idea of reorganization is "make more bureaucracy of high-paid incompetent men in epaulets, who sit in cushy offices and do nothing but make up good news for the Pres to keep their high-paying jobs" well, that and demand bribes.
The head of the Border Guard reports that the commanding officers successfully underwent lustration. It was passed by 21 generals, however many colonels and... STOP!!! WHY THE FUCK DOES THE BORDER GUARD NEED TWENTY ONE FUCKING GENERALS????

The past week's been signified by the national currency being on its deathbed. On the black market, the exchange rate to the dollar is 40 _UAH to the buck. A year ago it was 8. There's the war, of course, the loss of Crimea and Donbas-especially the latter, as it's enterprises DID bring in a lot of export dollars, but still! At the end of 2014, Ukraine pulled off a POSITIVE trade balance for the first time in years-more $$$ came in than were paid out for imports. And yet the currency rates are skyrocketing. Why???

Well, for starters, there's the Russian banks. They are a big part of the UA market, and they buy up dollars to alleviate the problems back home. Nothing's being done about them, of course, because a) we're not at war; and b ) because Russian oligarchs are Poroshenko's friends and the mother of. His godchild is now head of the National Bank. And before she used to be the head account of Poroshenko's bank (such a shocking coincidence!)
Then there are the local oligarchs, who are making mega-profits on currency speculation, b/c they buy from the NBU at preferred rates as "refinancing". And they organize inter-bank sales, where one oligarch trades his own money b/w several banks he owns, driving up the price a little bit each time...

It's disheartening. The so-called "elites" continue their short-sightedness, as the country teeters on the brink. I don't want to think about it, but i'm expecting people to start snapping. When a disgruntled businessman, who lost his livelyhood in a week shoots a judge, or a high-ranked banker, or a politician out of sheer desperation, I won't feel surprised.

I don't want to give up. Because I know that this is a massive system that must be destroyed, taking care not to collapse the country in the process, and that is an incredibly long-term project. It's impossible to give up, because far too many of the best and brightest have paid the ultimate price for the small positive changes that ARE already there. The only way to make sure those sacrifices remain meaningful is to nurture these advances, and to keep up the fight.

But it does get nearly unbearable thinking about sometimes...

[Tsundoku]

Back to the good bad old days eh?

http://www.news.com....v-1227242446262

[Mentalist]

saw that while on a bus on my way home from work. RIP

No kidding, I'm shocked, tbh. There's really no conceivable reason to do this, as the opposition enjoys a whopping less than 10% popular support in Russia. Given free choice, Russians would vote in an ultra-left or an ultra-right party, certainly not a "let's play nice with the West and forget out imperial ambitions"-type opposition.

The only thing that I'm wondering about if this is the 90's style gang justice (favoured by VVH and his ilk), or have we gone all the way back to proper fascism?

If this wasn't sanctioned by Kremlin, but was instead done by some fanatics who got sick of Nemtsov "insulting the Motherland", that's even worse, b/c it means that VVH is "losing creative control over the process", to quote Homer J. Simpson--i.e., the red and brown rhetoric is seeping in deep enough to make people act on their own volition. Given the economic situation in Russia remains volatile, adding such social tension is a really. bad. sign.

[Tsundoku]

Here is an typical summary-style article example of what we are seeing in Oz. Is it similar to your sources or are they way off the mark?

http://www.news.com....v-1227208978986

This post has been edited by Sombra: 28 February 2015 - 12:47 AM

[Mentalist]

Sombra, on 28 February 2015 - 12:46 AM, said:

Here is an typical summary-style article example of what we are seeing in Oz. Is it similar to your sources or are they way off the mark?

http://www.news.com....v-1227208978986

similar. Some discrepancy in details. Also, downplaying the fact that Russians actually approved Crimean annexation overwhelmingly, and many of them support this war that doesn't exist. It's a tad optimistic in saying "it's only a matter of time, before the masses rise up"... if it's true, there's a hell of a lot of time left on the clock, imho, unfortunately...

then there's minor niggles: Mariupol isn't "Ukraine's only port"--in fact, it's always been one of the least important ones (and doubly so now, since both sides of the Kerchen straight are held by Russia). Svetlana Davydova wasn't arrested fro inquiring after her son--it's worse (and even more trivial than that): she called the UA embassy last year, to tell them what she overheard in a bus: a commander of a unit stationed in her city was complaining the unit is being shifted "to Rostov".
Davydova was also released (not sure if on bail, or if the ridiculous treason charges were lifted). There's others, but those were the big ones.

but yeah, overall, pretty accurate. The main thing missing is this point our media drives home incessantly--VVH can't allow a successful, modern, democratic UA, b/c it will show Russians a viable alternative and so undermine his rule (because "If even the Ukrainians can make their lives better, why can't we?")> I tend not to place too much stock in that argument, but it's less about the reality, and more about how one man who happens to wield ultimate power in a nuclear power perceives reality.

[Tsundoku]

You'd think the Russians would have learned from the last couple of times one man had too much power.

[Mentalist]

Huh. One of Ukrainian ex-MPs, an odious figure from Kuchma and Yanukovych's time, who recently had a bunch of charges laid against him, has, apparently, committed suicide (by jumping out of 17th floor).

I refuse to feel glad about another human being's death, but the man certainly had something unpleasant coming. Only question is, did his own ex-comrades take him out because he was gonna talk, or if the new regime's gone a bit excessive?

Either case, we're in for an exciting weekend, i think. Russian opposition was already planning a big rally on Sun, and Nemtsov's murder spurred them to move it from the outskirts to the centr of the city.
Given VVH's been training his "AntiMaydan" thugs, I got a really, really, bad feeling about this...

Edit: re Russians and power. I really don't want to go and sound all condescending and talk stereotypes, but....

something like 70% of Russians practically worship Stalin. They know all the people he killed; many of them had relatives that were repressed; they still think the world's biggest butcher is a national hero to the people he nearly exterminated.

I don't want to become like the propaganda and call 140 million people "a nation of willing slaves". But they do have a tendency to value "strong arm" and "order" over personal freedom--the majority does, and that's a pretty common sociology.

I've said this before, and it warrants repeating: reprogramming Russia to affect a value shift will be the monumental problem the world will face sooner rather than later. Once the inadequacy of the current system becomes obvious, we are looking at a major problem. I'm at a loss as to how it can be fixed tbh, short of occupation--but that's a kind of headache no one in their right mind will want. So I just don't know.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 28 February 2015 - 07:13 AM