[Mentalist]

Spent most of the day doing translations, as I've taken a break from about January 1st.

by the end of the week, www.ukropnews.net should have another 30 or so pages of English-language content.

I also wanted to point out the English version of the site www.censor.net.ua-- http://en.censor.net.ua/ The English version isn't as up-to Date as the original, and their news isn't "always" reliable (in general, Censor, although undoubtedly one of the most popular Uki "orange" news sources has a reputation of being a bit "pulpy"), but it's not like there's a whole lot of choice, unfortunately.

they say pictures speak louder than words... volunteers from around the globe bring you an interactive photo-History of Maydan and the Revolution of Dignity in 11 languages: http://ukrainefreedom.org/en/

so very tired of writing. Proper update tomorrow. probably. possibly. maybe.

[Mentalist]

hmmm.

For whatever reason, the last batch of stuff still has not been uploaded. When I send the admin a new portion tomorrow I will politely inquire as to why.

a really brief update on the situation: January 13th is Old New Year, which pretty much marks the end of the winter festivities (Ukis still got Epithany (which we call "water-baptism" on the 19th, but in Russia it's a religious holiday, but not a major public one)

So to mark the occasion, the terrorists launched an insane offensive around Donetsk. There was insane fighting in the airport today, and apparently there's 20-odd chechens trapped in the basement (our "cyborgs" had to blow up the doors to keep them out, so now they're trapped in teh basement with no way out), the radio control tower lost its two top floors, and we've lost "a third of the airport" (reports vary). The issue being, of course, that UA military doesn't have an order to attack (as we are still in a "ceasefire", )

elsewhere, the terrorists were shelling checkpoints. They happily reported the destruction of a Ukrainian checkpoint in Volnovakha, (half-way b/w Donetsk and Mariupol). About 10 minutes later it turned out they hit a coach bus from Donetsk that carried "DNR" residents, mostly the elderly who were travelling to unoccupied territory to get their pensions... so far there's 12 confirmed civillian casulties, I believe.

Internationally, not much has been happening, b/c holidays and "Je suis Charlie". There was supposed to be a meeting in Astana, Kazakhstan on the 15th in the "Normandy format" (UA-RU-GER-FRA), but that pretty much fell through, because there's nothing to talk about. Poroshenko's been lately saying stuff about how "we need to allow VVh to save face", and that he's willing to grant the occupied parts of Donbass "special economic status". Buuut, there's nothing really happening,because VVH is showing no willingness to back down. Insted, he's sent another "humanitarian convoy", and upon receivign it, hostilies escalated again.

Meanwhile, oil's around 45-47/barrel. Russia's "Urals" is even cheaper. Ruble's nearly reached the limits of "Black Tuesday" of December lows. The RTS is steadily dropping--thoughh it's played back its losses of December, then it began a steady decline 2-5% a day. Russian central bank's revealed it burned over 100 billion dollars worth of reserves last year, trying to keep the ruble steady. Russia lost the appeal in the Hague and Yukos' 50 billion are due on Jan 15th. either this week r next week S&P will publishe their updated credit rating--which will supposedly put Russia in the BB category of "notcapable of paying"--which will trigger investment funds to get rid of Russian bonds, as their corporate policies prohibit them from holding such risky bonds.

Of course, none of the above actually means we can expect any changes in Russia. I just watched "Leviathan", the Russian movie that just won a Golden Globe for best script. it's painfully accurate in describing the lives of the majority, and specifically the interrelationship b/w govt and the people. I don't see a change. On top of the purely emotional appeal, this is a ridiculously huge case of cognitive dissonance. And it will take something truly, incredibly drastic for 140 million people to snap out of it.

[Nicodimas]

This is significant. Saved for later.
http://www.zerohedge...n-close-carnage
http://www.bloomberg...wiss-shock.html

Wow. Poor Europe.

[Mentalist]

There's been some absolutely insane fighting @ the Donetsk airport today. most Ukis lived in the news. Ruscists went all out to try to capture the accursed new terminal, and things looked grim for most of the day, but eventually we got our reinforcements in, and now we're back to where we were.
yeah, bit of a shocker about the Swiss, not sure what game they're playing.

another big thing is a major protests in Armenia. There's a Russian base there, and a runaway deserter from said based killed a family of six, including a 2 y.o. girl he stabbed with a bayonet blade. A 6 month old baby is the only survivor, and he's in a hospital. Armenians demand the soldier (who was caught trying to cross the Armenian-Turkish border and confessed to the killings) be tried in Armenia, while Russians try to pull jurisdiction. The really sad thing fro Russia is that Armenia's one of the few remaining allies.

UA's announced fourth wave of mobilization.

oh, and a miracle happened. OSCE observers actually noticed that Russians are shelling the airport from civilian yards on the outskirts of Donetsk, "which may endanger civilians". Only took them 6 months to notice, gee thanks.

Expecting more action tomorrow. Also gotta wait and see how Russia reacts to the European parliament's resolution that sanctions need to be made tougher.

[Mentalist]

Really-really quick update. Had a bad, nerve-wrecking week, hard to work, bad sleep schedule. Yesterday was a complete mind-numbing rite-off as a I was emotionally and physically recovering from the fairly strained holidays. So no article updates prolly for the next few days, got a major backlog of stuff to get through.


Essentially, the entire week since the 13th Ukrainian public lives in the Donetsk airport and environs. There's no topic more important than what's happining to our beloved "cyborgs" This is our Stalingrad, our Leningrad, our Brest fortress all rolled into one.

This week, terrorussians threw everything they've had at it. Spetznaz, marines, paratroopers, Kadyrov's Chechen police--the amount of Russian regular units that have sent their representatives to fight for the airport is staggering. The amount of artillery and tanks, the amount of raw firepower, and, most importantly--the effort in the info-sphere was just staggering. Every single day RT and Russia's favourite "Life news" showed "live feeds from the "fully captured New Terminal" (the footage was either from a completely demolished and no longer defensible Old Terminal which the cyborgs yielded in the fall or from the far wing of the New terminal--that is, the wing closes to the terrorussian positions, which is not occupied by Ukis.

Depite the fact that this was probably 20-somethingth time that the terrorussian "militia" captured the airport, the Cyborgs are still there. Probably because they don't watch Russian TV. Moreover, for the past few days, the Ukrainian forces have finally begun to slowly abandon the costly pretense of a "ceasefire", responding in force, and applying real force in teh matter of bailing out our guys stuck in the area. Due to the above-mentioned amount of public interest in the matter, the government has no choice but to act--because the person in the street considers the Cyborgs to be far more valuable to the country than any given politician, be it an MP or the Pres.

the only news anyone believes comes form volunteers, or from soldiers that are there. For the past 2-3 days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, along with those volunteer detachments in the area have been making any terrorussian to make a move very costly. Although we've lost probably at least 20, and i'm guessing there's at least a hundred wounded that have been evacuated, the terrorussian are paying at least 3-5 times as much, if not more.
As of a few hours ago, the fighting and shelling's ongoing in all major areas. on the Nort-east and Eastern fronts. Yesterday Ukrainians have hit a major supply depot in Dokuchaivsk (just north of Volnovakha, south on teh rad form Donetsk to Mariupol, and this prompted terrorussians to evacuate their remaining tech from the area. Today there was a tank battle on the northern outskirts of Donetsk,a nd in their retreat, terrorussians blew the bridge which was teh main throroughfare intot eh city from the North. This leaves their staging areas north of the city in a bad spot, and hopefully Ukrainians will be able to clear those up, relieving the airport from incessant shelling.

In Luhansk, the fighting's also ongoing, but there it's a bit easier to tell things apart, because the Donets river serves a clear dividing line for most of the frontline--Ukrainians are north of it, the terrorussian "LNR" is south of it. Things get muddier further west beyond Slav'yanoserbsk--there the LNR control the bridge city and attempt to make flanking strikes at the Ukrainian positions in the city of Schastya, which is the home of the Luhansk Geothermal electrical plant, which supplies, about half the oblast with electricity, including Luhansk itself. Ukrainians positions further west actually extend on the SOUTHERN bank of the Donets, with the main point of contention being the checkpoints around the village of Krymske some 10-20 clicks from the bridge. Fighting here continues (as it does around Debaltsevo, and around Mariupol--there's fighitn everywhere, really), but in the LNR its nowhere near as fierce and intense. Why? well, because there's a bit of a civil war going on there atm.

more on that here: http://ukropnews.net/articles/_45.html

The article's from the first week of January, but since then the "LNR central" has completely disbanded and disarmed the "Batman" group in Luhansk (composed of may Russian ultra-right), as well as disarming and containing the "Odessa" battalion, which was quartered in Krasnodon, was composed about 95% out of Russian citizens, and whose only crime was, supposedly, that they didn't let the LNR Central govt to traffic drugs and embezzle humanitarian aid.Today there was info that LNR's sent an armored column to "pacify" the Cossack-controlled Sverdlovsk. We'll see how that turns out.

There's been big anti-Russian rallies all over the country today, spurred by Wednesday's Volnovakha tragedy ("Je suis Volnovakha"). Especially fervent and passionate on teh topic are the residents of the liberated parts of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts--among with having tasted the "freedom" of the "Peoples' Republics", they also face an influx of refugees who let them know all about the "joys" of living on the occupied territory.

Anyhow, as their latest trick, the Russian MFA has now declared that according to the Minsk accords, UA's supposed to turn over the airport to the "militia". Which prompts the issue that according to the Minsk accords, UA's supposed to be given control of the UA-RU border, all unlawful armed groups are supposed to disarm and get the F out across the border, and then "people's republics" were supposed to hold local elections under UA legislature back in December. Supposedly the Russians are now insisting on another round of Minsk negotiations, but really our MFA's skeptical, because as it stands, there isn't much to talk about.

I'll try to get some relevant material posted soonish, but no guarantees it will still be relevant (had to drop a huge article describing the disposition of both forces as of last weekend, since it has mostly ceased to be relevant, )

[Mentalist]

Airport is lost/abandoned/destroyed> I'm not sure which, most people are not sure which. No confirmation of casualties, rumours range from "37 people who were crushed by a blown-up ceiling and the the survivors were finished off by Chechens" to "a small number, most were evacuated". A complete information vacuum, just like the insane fog around Donetsk, which is supposedly largely to blame for the operation going haywire.

Don't want to write about it. First off, because it makes my blood boil, like many others (and at the same time I realize that it's subtle manipulation, but I'm not sure by whom: our own media did its best to hype up the airport past week, and although I don't completely buy into the "we've got a war-which-we-are-not-calling-a-war on, and any criticism of Pres and govt is working for the enemy" thing that the Pres and his supporters are spouting, I do tend to think that an alternative would be a proper military coup, and that requires deep planning and coordination to make sure we don't implode into a proper civil war and become a failed state.). And secondly, because having (slowly) gotten over the emotional shock, I grit my teeth and trying to get better and stronger from the blow, I want to see and hear all the facts before I begin to rage.

elsewhere, after some insane 2 day-fighting, terrorussians have completely demolished "checkpoint no 31", to the east of Krymske in Luhansk oblast. it's a setback, as the position was on a hill overlooking the town, which is in the river valley, and thus, the position offers a great shelling position. However, as it's been completely demolished, it's within range of our artillery...

which sadly may not matter, as "supposedly", our glorious leadership in its eternal wisdom has brokered another "deal", which involves pulling back heavy artillery 15 clicks away from the frontlines... Last time we've gone down this path, terrorussians gained 550 square clicks during the supposed "ceasefire" between Sept 5th and 19th.

As you may imagine, combined with the news of the loss of the symbolic Airport, the Uki public is.... less than pleased. most fingers point at the HQ commander General Muzhenko, who was already blamed fro the Illovaysk disaster. Nevertheless, as teh Pres is incredibly fond of all his "protege" appointees, Muzhenko continued to lead. Will the loss of the iconic position (and Muzhenko was the one in charge of developing the operation to "deblock" the airport, whose goal was to advance into Donetsk outskirts and thus relieve the pressure from the Airport), it may finally prove enough to have him relieved.

More tomorrow. There's really way to much speculation and not enough facts right now.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 22 January 2015 - 01:48 AM

[Mentalist]

Jesus Christ.....

Terrorussians shelled Mariupol today. Residential district, closest Army checkpoint was 4 clicks away...

Right now 46 26 confirmed casualties, tons of wounded.... EDITED: was actually 26 casualties, now up to 30

Absolutely fucking pointless strike, its only goal is to intimidate us. They don't have the resources to take Mariupol, so they're trying to act big.

On the Airport--26 confirmed Cyborg casualties, about 10 wounded. Supposedly, the terrorussians asked for a 2 h "ceasefire" to retrieve their comrade's corpses. Using a lull in artillery fire, they conducted a tank attack, allowing a group to geti inside the New Terminal. Those troops started to mine and demolish the bearing walls. The New Terminal was demolished, with our guys stil inside.

And yet even now, the fighting in and around the airport continues. Ukrainian Armed Forces (ZSU) still hold what's left over from the dispatch tower, as well as the fire station to the North of the terminal.

Terrorussians are attempting a attack on all fronts. near Krymske, they were shelled to oblivion and eventually they had to back off from checkpoint 31. Figting continues North of luhansk towards Schastya and Stnitsa Luhanska; around Debaltsevo, where the frontline creates a "buklge" being held by the ZSU, figthing's intense, as teh Terrorissians aim to surround that group of troops.

This is a goddamn war.And our Pres is a goddamn moron. He continues to bleat about "his Peace Plan". I honestly believe his business upbringings in the turbulend Bad Old 90s of bandit Capitalism have left him physically incapable of admitting his mistakes. On top of that, he appoints to key positions people based on their loyalty and devotion to him, instead of their professionalism. Out of his notable appointments:

1) The Prosecutor General, Yarema (former deputy PM of the security forces)-- was revealed to have a mansion in Kyiv, was revealed to have a deputee linked to the last administration and numerous corrupion scandals. Has done little to deal with corruption, or with high-ranked sponsors of terrorussian separatists.

2) Gontareva, the new head of the National Bank- (formerly head accountant in a bank owned by the Pres)- her monetary policy and a forced currency devaluation meant the currency plunged, and she continues to spend reserves to refinance banks, that continue to use the currency to drive up the Dollar and make money off speculations.

3) MoD- the prior MoD Geletay (formerly the Pres' bodyguard) has been replaced following the Illovaysk disaster. The new appointment Poltorak, seems to be capable adminstrator when it comes to logistics at lest. he's focusing on refoming the supply systmes to make sure the Army's provided for. However, a lot of his good work (including bringing in volunteers into the MoD to help with organizig logistics and clearing out the corrupt staff) are made moot, because


4) the head of the HQ, Muzhenko, who is hte one responsible for overall strategic planning, is an idiot. It's not me saying this, every military expert agrees that Muzhenko isn't qualified to lead at this level. The HQ has been responsible for the disastrous Il-76 flight to relive the Luhansk airport (a group of Dnipropetrovsk paratroopers were being brought in to rotate th troops holding he airport which was some 15 clicks south of the city. There was a leak, and the plane was shot down, 40 people were killed); The HQ ignored all warnings of the Russian offensive in August, which led to the Illovaysk disaster. The HQ has ignored all warnings, dismissing them as criticism in October, when during a purported "ceasefire" terrorrusians have surrounded Checkpoint 32 (further east along the road from Krymske to Slov'yanoserbsk), and shelled it to oblivion. The HQ did not deem fit to send in relief troops untill it was too late (and a portion were sent in blind, found themselves in combat with overwhelming forces, suffered casualties and were captured), and eventually the 32nd was surrendered, abandoning 4 ATPs, and all weapons.
As a cherry on the cake, in December Muzhenko has begun to relieve all experienced officers form teh defense of teh Donetsk Airport, replacing them with untried ones. And last week he came down there to personally (!) oversee the "counterattack" that was supposed to deblockade the airport. Having no knowledge of the units ivolved, he picked units seemingly at random, assigning them targets, employing laughably insufficient forces to each task. Even then, Ukrainian troops were capable of achieving most of the objectives, but due to lack of a planned supply and reinforcements, they were unable to actually hold their gains, and were pushed back by a counterattack.

As of today, Muzhenko has been assigned a deputy, General Vorob'yov, who designed the operation on recapturing Slov'yansk back in the summer, but then was discharged, in accordance with the Lustration legislation. Due to public outcry, he was brought back, and soon, hopefully, he will be put in charge, no thanks to the Pres.

Ugh. the situation's messed up. Yesterday Russian vice-preimiergave a speech in Davos. The gist of it is: a) Russians are such a people, they cna either have freedom or happiness; b ) The more Russians feel n outside pressure to overthrow their leader, the stronger theiy will rally around him - even if the choice is "starve a little, or lose a leader", Russians will starve in support of their leader; c) Russians want to build a Western Democracy, but it takes time- society has to change, and building ti will take a long time.

5) I grudgingly accept that eh MFA Klymkin (former ambassador to Germany) seems OK.

So i guess it's easy to see that the Kremlin's got no intention of backing off. The recent wave of civillian deaths (Volnovakha, a recent shelling of trolley-bus station in Donetk, which couldn't have been done by the ZSU forces, and now Mariupol, shows that VVH's got no intentio of settling things peacefully. And this isn't even mentioning the 1 or several daily civillian casualties suffered from shellings in Luhansk oblast (Schastya, Popasna, Stanitsa Luhanska), as well as parts of Donetsk oblast under Ukrainian control.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 24 January 2015 - 05:02 PM

[Illuyankas]

I have to say I really appeciate your posts here, it's an extremely informative, engrossing and depressing look at a mad situation being completely ignored by the media right now.

[Mentalist]

Illuyankas, on 24 January 2015 - 03:45 PM, said:

I have to say I really appreciate your posts here, it's an extremely informative, engrossing and depressing look at a mad situation being completely ignored by the media right now.

saddest thing is, they really don't understand, that every single one of these strikes, no matter how cynical, no matter how ruthless, no matter how horrific and terrifying, achieves the exact opposite. Ukis don't get intimidated. They get furious. With every single one of these deaths, more and more people DEMAND that we shut the F up about "peace" and start a full-scale assault, scorching the earth those mofos walk on.

Russians don't get that all this shit makes it impossible for Ukis to even consider living in the same country/union/alliance as the h"brotherly" Russians. They honestly don't realize that Ukis are NOT gonna do as the govt tells them--and no one will just sit down and shut up if some govt official suddenly says "New plan, now we're friends with Russia, boo West!".

I used to think of myself as a fairly moderate nationalist. I grew up in a bilingual family, deeply steeped in Russian culture. Although an independent UA was a given for me, I never had any inherent dislike of Russians, and i believed that Putin was an appropriate ruler for Russia, at least at this stage.
Now more and more often i find myself feeling rage. It takes more and more effort not to simply start hating them clinically and en masse. And every day makes it harder.

All this, and I don't even live in UA right now, and my family's from Western UA, and no one I know has died in the war.

[Mentalist]

the most eloquent summary of the whole UA-RU conflict: http://www.ukropnews...ticles/_56.html

Following the Mariupol tragedy, things have gotten somewhat quiet. That is to say, from the loud military action, the conflict has shifted somewhat to other fields.

That is not to say there's no war on. On the contrary, the war rages on, with main fighting beiing around the debaltsevo Bulge, which the terrorussians continue to try to encircle. so far, they have met with no success. elsewhere, terrorussian artillery is levelling Avdiyivka to the north of Donetsk, as well as the ZSU-held suburb towns to the west of the city.

the real action has switched to economics and diplomacy. Following the miracle whereas the OSCE observers were cured of their blindness and started to notice he Russian military hardware with Russian flags, (as well as their inequivocal statement that the GRADs fired on Mariupol were fired from "separatist-held territory", the ukranian Rada managed to finally, 10 months too late pass a resolution naming Russia as an aggressor. This was done today. Also today, The PACE voted on a very anti-Russian resolution, including demanding that Russia stop funding terrorists in Eastern UA, conddemning the annexation of Crimea, and also demanding the immideate release of the PACE delegate from Ukraine Nadiya Savchenko.

economics-wise, Standard and Poor's lowered Russian economy rating to BB+, mking their bonds "speculative" to put it nicely, "junk bonds" to put it truthfully. This has not yet cause a mass market panick, and the ruble, after taking a hit yesterday, actually spent the day recovering (i can only imagine how many billions the Centrobank poured down the drain to make that happen)

Really, the word on tip of everyone's mouth is SWIFT, the Secure Wordlwide International Financial Telecommunications system, which is the world's banking network. There's a lot of buzz that the EU's next major step in sanctions will be cutting Russia out of Swift, as was done to Iran. Russian top officials, are throwing a tantrum over this, with the PM Medvedev promising "unrestricted reactions", the FM Lavrov reminding Europe that "any time Russia was in Isolation, the consequences for European stability were dire", and lets also not forget the vice-PM Shuvalov (the very same one who earlier said in Davos that the Russian people will rather live with less electricity and less food than see an outside power topple their beloved leader) who straight up called out the West, stating that taking SWIFT away from Russia will be tantamount to a declaration of a Cold War and the US may as well recall their ambassador from Moscow and the RF will recall theirs from Washington.

the buzz puts the big day to pull the plug as Feb 12th, but I'm worried. I'm worried, because the EU will really have to do it. Right now the VVH (who yesterday informed Russian students that there's no Ukranian Army, and they should really be talking of a "NATO Legion", which is "restraining Russia" (in Ukraine, presumably), "against the interests of the Ukrainian people"Honestly, no comment on just what a load of concentrated ludicrousness that is. ) is basically goading the West into destroying him to teach him a lesson. I don't know if it's insanity, or an hypertrophied sense of risk, that makes it impossible for him not to gamble, but in all of his actions, VVH is being the macho who's trying to convince everyone that the West is bluffing. And at the end of the day, I don't know if the West is ready to go that far. And if they aren't well, then UA's in huge trouble.

[Mentalist]

Another insanely emotional week. This time the fighting was around the city of Vuhlegirsk, directly west of Debaltsevo. Terrorussians threw a lot at it. There were some tactical mishaps y the ZSU. Considering the mass information war attacks and the tons of fakes aimed at destabilising the info-sphere, it's very hard to make heads or tails of it.

The commonly accepted facts appear to be:

1) Debaltsevo bulge is NOT cut off. The road to Artemivsk is occasionally shelled, but remains unoccupied. Therefore the 5-8 k Ukin troops on the bulge maintain secured supply lines.

2) ZSU has been pushed out to the eastern outskirts of Vuhlehirsk. Terrorussians celebrate this, as an enormous victory, however, see 3)

3) Terrorussians admit to incredible losses. The most frequent number that flies in their social networks is 300 dead from the latest assault alone.
At the same time, UA command reported successfully breaking through and getting 72 ATO fighters out of the city today. They've been in practical isolation since early Thursday night--practically 3 days.

Supposedly there was anther round of the Minsk talks today. it ended with nothing.

VVH has sent another "humanitarian convoy" to Donbass. That's number 12. As is traditional, once the terrorussian troops distribute the explosive and metal "aid", we should expect resumption of fierce hostilities.

More details tomorrow, maybe. If the situation becomes any clearer.
last week's best post (this past week there's been only like 4-5 articles, i'm working on them right now) is a bit of a humorous and wordy one. Nonetheless, once you get past the imagery and the somewhat exaggerations, it's incredibly to the point in how we, the collective Ukrainian people feel about the whole thing. http://ukropnews.net/articles/_65.html

And yes, I know I need to proofread better. But I usually finish these things around 1 AM, so I sometimes miss things.

[Tsundoku]

On a slightly lighter side ...

http://www.news.com....f-1227208036865

[Shpetim]

Kudos to you Mentalist! Thanks for your contribution on serving us news that damn me never reaches our media. And you have my unflinching support, you and all the people of Ukraine, because you are fighting an enemy that is an enemy to us too. Believe it or not, among the "local" separatist fractions, there are elements of ultra-orthodox chetnik divisions that butchered unarmed people in the Bosnian war, as well as the Kosovo war. And being from Kosovo originally, I can assure you that if asked, about 99,9% of Kosovoalbanians would declare openly for Ukraine! Keep strong you guys!

[D'iversify]

Cajun King, on 06 February 2015 - 05:04 AM, said:

Watching CNN now and there's a segment saying annalist theorized Putin has Asperger's and there going on and on about it being an Autistic disorder. I have my brows raised. This is us taking a swipe at him for sure I think. Wow

Great, someone else who wants to blame the world's geopolitical problems on the non-neurotypical, just wow. *Slow clap*

[Mentalist]

Shpetim, on 05 February 2015 - 06:51 PM, said:

Kudos to you Mentalist! Thanks for your contribution on serving us news that damn me never reaches our media. And you have my unflinching support, you and all the people of Ukraine, because you are fighting an enemy that is an enemy to us too. Believe it or not, among the "local" separatist fractions, there are elements of ultra-orthodox chetnik divisions that butchered unarmed people in the Bosnian war, as well as the Kosovo war. And being from Kosovo originally, I can assure you that if asked, about 99,9% of Kosovoalbanians would declare openly for Ukraine! Keep strong you guys!

I watch Euronews regularly, and they usually have a small story on UA' whenever things flare up.

Right now everyone's looking at Munich. On thur Merkel and Hollande went to Kyiv, to discuss a new "peace plan", and yesterday they tried to get VVH on board. The deal's supposedly to be cemented this weekend during the Munich Security Conference.

Here's what a Russian doomsayer and ex-advisor to VVH thinks on the matter:

http://ukropnews.net/articles/_77.html

in short, "Danke #FrauRibbentrop "

The situation is highly volatile. Terrorussians got the ever-living shit beat out of them in their latest "advances" on Debaltsevo, and now they want "more negotiations". Normally I'd comment on how incredibly cynical this is, but teh whole "announce we are attacking and "no more talking untill VICTOLY!!!!--unsuccessful advance with many casualties/accidentally wiping out a bunch of civillians/begging Russia to speak out that "there needs to be further negotiations" has become standard Terrorussian operating procedure.

next Thursday is the EU summit, where the EU leaders have to either put up or shut up re: further economic sanctions on Russia. No one really wants to go down that route, because let's be fair: the West doesn't want a confrontation with Russia. And I can understand why: Russians are still mostly brainwashed and WILL die "For the Motherland, For Putin!" in droves. Willingly. Many of them simply because their lives are so short of any prospects that going to war somewhere is a huge improvement in their life position. And going to war against Europe is actually an incredible chance to "get a taste of the good life" Whereas the West (and Europe in particular. And Central Europe most particularly) is living the happy, sated life (The C-E Europe in particular, because they only recently got back into this groove after the decades of languishing under Communist rule), and their lives have meaning--enough meaning that they don't want to throw them away if it can be avoided.

And the western media's pretty accurate at portraying this. The big problem is, they really aren't telling the other side of the story. This "peace plan" and ANY significant concessions to the terrorussians (the most important one being "donbass remains part of UA, but as virtually autonomous area AND the rest of UA has to pay to rebuild it") WILL lead to a revolt within UA. While I have information from first hands (my mother came back from there yesterday) that there are many in UA, esp Western UA, who are sick of this "hybrid war", do all they can to avoid being drafted and are furious at the disintegrating economy while the president's chocolate factories continue to operate in Russia, and while UA still trades with Russia. Many people choose to protest by leaving -the numbers of willing emigrants is swelling. But there are also those who are willing to fight, those who are already fighting, and for them this will be an incredible slap in the face. If Poroshenko "gives away" Ukraine, there will be riots.

The problem is, of course, that there is no political will to straight up say "look, we can't take the occupied 30-40% of Donbass back by force. so then we will stop trying, stop supplying them anyhting, cutthem off completely, and let them see if they can survive on their own" Instead we get the traditional "we won't yield an inch of our soil" rhetoric that only exacerbates the conflict. This "not war, but clearly more than an Anti-terrorist Operation" state is pissing people off. The govt can scream "but the IMF won't give us moooooney!!!! is we are at war" al they want, but the incompetence in the Pres' many appointments (the head fo the National Bank, the Prosecutor General, the head of the HQ, the newly-created "Minister of Information policy", who has done squat since being put in power--the information war is still being waged by bloggers, and UkrTwitter--all of this is building unrest. Most people are aware that there's some truth to the "we can't have another revolution now, because then Russia will jump ont he vacuum of instability" statement that the govt is using like the magical fig leaf of why they are irreplacable, but that can only last so long.

The US is accelerating matters in 2 ways. Frst of all, they spearhead the West's new hardline approach of "no tangible reforms, no money", which is good. Secondly and most relevant in the short-term, by practically throwing the question of weapon supplies to Ukraine on the agenda. The "hawks" in the EU- Lithuania, Poland, UK--are all for it. Russia is now sending subtle blackmail signs a la "if US guns get involved, we may decide to use tactical nukes"; and with the other hand, they have Lavrov and Putin talking about "peace" and "regulating the conflict to avoid civilian casualties"--which is just the kind of language the "old EU" likes to hear. Nevermind that what it actually means is "I will have contol of this chunk of Ukraine, through which I will have a final say in all decisions it may make on foreign policy (by making Ukraine quazi-federal, with Donbass havinf a decisive say). Obviously this may seem like a plausible solution for Europe, because there's no war, and everyone is happy (including the Ukrainian oligarchs, who see gigantic dollar signs, at the thought of all that money, flowing into the "restoration of Donbas", there ripe for being redirected into select few's pockets. The issue, is annoyingly enough, the people. those very people who stubbornly refuse to be pawns, who managed to resurrect an army in a year, who ever so slowly, but are making teeny-tiny steps in the right direction reforms-wise. And who have this nasty habit of devolving into full-scale civil war when their leadership proves incompetent enough in upholding their interests.

I have no idea what the results of the weekend's negotiations will be. There's not a whole lot of room for optimism. I hate to have to rely on the US, but they appear to be the only player in the room who understands that appeasement here won't work. Just as it didn't in 1938.

[Gust Hubb]

Appeasement. Never thought of it that way... Good word, and scary word.

[Ghjhero]

Do you have a source where Russia has said they would use tactical nukes against Ukriane if the U.S. were to deliver weapons to them? Do you think Putin would actually go that far?

[Shpetim]

Ghjhero, on 08 February 2015 - 06:03 AM, said:

Do you have a source where Russia has said they would use tactical nukes against Ukriane if the U.S. were to deliver weapons to them? Do you think Putin would actually go that far?

Dude, he did make it quite clear that it was subtle blackmailing. Would've been all over the news all over the world if they said it straight out..

[Mentalist]

Ghjhero, on 08 February 2015 - 06:03 AM, said:

Do you have a source where Russia has said they would use tactical nukes against Ukriane if the U.S. were to deliver weapons to them? Do you think Putin would actually go that far?

"Russia" modified their military doctrine to allow for preventive nuclear strikes. It's also instructed "experts" to say things like "imho, if US gives Ukraine weapons, "ze Russians" will use tactical nukes".

As for whether I think thay will do it: depends on how the chain of command works. Best minds in Russia are currently trying to figure out what's in VVH's head, and what's the relationshiip between him and his entourage.

VVH is certianly making it seem like he'd rather watch the world burn than lose power. I can't say for ceretian if it's a bluff. I can say for certain that people around him DON'T want to see the world burn. They have their villas, their boats, their soccer teams, their wives and mistresses used to flying private jets for a day of shopping in Milan or Paris. They like that, and they want to keep that. How much say they have, and what resources they have to make a palace coup happen-God knows.

I know that were I the head of the CIA I'd be doing my damn best to dig up all I ca about missile unit commanders and come up with whatever deal imaginable to ensure that when the X time comes, the person responsible for pushing the button on VVH's orders won't do it. beyond that, it's a crapshoot. We go back to the crumbling economy, the Muslim factor, the Chinese factor, the oligarch factor, the "people-are-so-pumped-up-on-the-Orthtodox-fascism-brand-of-quazi-nazism-that-they-can-do-absolutely-insane-things" factor, etc...

The biggest problem is, basically this: The west doesn't want to go to war with Russia. The absofuckinglutely main reason for that is that the West is scared shitless of WINNING. Because then it's either gonna have to manage the "conquered territory" (with all of the abovementioned factors), or, anyone's worst nightmare--Russian Civil War v. 2.0--now with nukes!
And so we get to wtch a spectacular diplomatic game of "how can we politely make the problem go away, or at least become someone else's business"

here's a latest text, straight to the point, albeit a bit emotional: http://ukropnews.com/news/_8419.html

Quote

Don't scare the ostriches...
8 February 2015 Sunday 17:47

Europe, you look unconvincing. More than that: you look pathetic. You are openly afraid and you hide from the problems. You pretend that the collapsing world won't affect you.
Where is that Europe that discovered new continents and crossed oceans on ramshackle tubs? Where is that Europe that managed, through wars, blood and revolutions, to create the examples of the forms of democracy and stable models of conflict resolution?

We don't see it. We see kasha being endlessly spread on the plate, we see reverences towards the aggressor, the fear in politicians' eyes, and a forced clang of rusty armour by the military.

'Of the glorious great-grandfathers of greatness,

The rotten great-grandchildren..."

(T. Shevchenko, fragment from the poem "To the dead and to the living)

Why do you need to deploy several more army corps, if you have no intention of ordering them to combat?

Why do you need hi-tech weaponry, if you do not dare to give it to us, so that WE could protect YOU, at the distant approaches to your gingerbread dream?!

Europe, you've burned out. You grew fat, hoarse, and you grew tired of living.

Take a closer look at Ukraine. It's here, with us, by our hands, here and now, that history is made! Made with our blood. And your history, among others.

Watch and feel jealous, if you aren't capable of feeling empathy.

And remember: the attempt to stick your head in the sand is very dangerous for you. It's not the free desert, but a zoo enclosure. And that's not sand, but a concrete floor.

[Nicodimas]

It was Eerie to watch that weapons/ammo dump explode!



for reference:


<still bugs me he has his kid>



This is also why I pro-Nuclear testing from time to time. Get all the world leaders in one spot who have the ability to use them. And just trigger a City Buster<1MT> for them to watch it's aftermath. < not on a city/people/them obviously > A reminder.