Gothos, on 12 December 2014 - 01:49 PM, said:
Soooo I read yesterday was the first 24hours without combat since the truce was motioned into being in September, and that troops are retreating across the border. Peace time now?
Questionable. First off, "Azov" is saying they've had 2 casualties while eliminating a sniper pair and their support squad, but it wasn't officially confirmed yet.
Secondly, there hasn't been any GRAD shelling in the last 24 h, true. UA troops are entrenched and they won't be retreating, I don't think.
Thirdly, the Pres is obcessed with his "peace plan", so he'll lobby it come hell or high water, regardless that he's the only one to believe it. Rada's next scheduled meeting is Dec 23rd, although next week there was supposed to be a vote on repealing the law that mandated UA's non-participation in any military block. Now it's being stalled "so as not to provoke things before Minsk" (since apparently there will be another round of talks)
There's reports of more infighting in the DNR, as Russian regulars are attempting to clean house.
The pres of the unrecognized South Ossetia has issued a statement, asking all Ossetian "volunteers" to come home. Given SO lives off Russian budget, it's telling.
Putin has to solve the logistic nightmare that is Crimea, before Sevastopol runs out of water. Also, RTS has fallen below 800 (it was 1150 in mid-November), which makes more and more people sell on margin calls, triggering further losses, whiich triggers MORE margin calls in a vicious spiral.
Russia needs a breather. But I wouldn't hold my breath for "peace".