[HoosierDaddy]

 Werthead, on 24 September 2026 - 11:27 AM, said:

Bizarre story circulating that Russia planned to use drones launched from cargo ships to hit targets in Spain, Italy and France simultaneously. Apparently Lithuanian agents uncovered the plan and reported it to NATO members and the US, spurring direct US contact with Russia confirming its commitment to Article 5.

This plan sounds unhinged, at least the Narva or even Suwalki Gap ideas have some intelligence behind it, but this would have just resulted in every Russian ship outside its home waters being sunk and NATO forces likely hitting Russian forces in Ukraine very heavily. Completely barking mad.

Was it meant to try to be clandestine "we don't know what caused these explosions" with plausible deniability because they are kamikaze drones? At least then they could blame terrorists or something.

[Tiste Simeon]

 HoosierDaddy, on 24 September 2026 - 12:41 PM, said:

 Werthead, on 24 September 2026 - 11:27 AM, said:

Bizarre story circulating that Russia planned to use drones launched from cargo ships to hit targets in Spain, Italy and France simultaneously. Apparently Lithuanian agents uncovered the plan and reported it to NATO members and the US, spurring direct US contact with Russia confirming its commitment to Article 5.

This plan sounds unhinged, at least the Narva or even Suwalki Gap ideas have some intelligence behind it, but this would have just resulted in every Russian ship outside its home waters being sunk and NATO forces likely hitting Russian forces in Ukraine very heavily. Completely barking mad.

Was it meant to try to be clandestine "we don't know what caused these explosions" with plausible deniability because they are kamikaze drones? At least then they could blame terrorists or something.

Also known as "doing an Israel"

[Werthead]

Some claims that Ukraine has breached the Russian lines along the Zherebets in multiple places and has pushed recon and drones deep into the Russian positions there. Some excited claims of Russian forces falling back and others being effectively cut off from resupply, and some Russian forces calling for a withdrawal to the Kreminna–Krasnopopivka line. I'm highly doubtful about this, especially because Russia can probably use the forests west of Kreminna as a much more effective defensive line, as Ukraine did against Russia. Retreating to Kreminna means almost retreating to the twin cities, and that seems barking mad. It would also mean a huge salient for Ukrainian forces, easily cut off.

More likely, Ukraine will continue attacking Russian forces beyond the Zherebets but will not advance too far beyond it unless there is a general Russian collapse. The bulk of Russian forces and the main threat is to the south, it would make more sense for Ukraine to focus its efforts there.

[Mentalist]

Yeah, until prominent Z-heads start whining about a "massive regrouping", I'm not buying this hopium.

The UAF could, potentially, get within reach of the Krasna somewhere along the Svatove- Kreminna road, especially if the orcs have significant manpower shortages; but given the ongoing pressure on Kup'yans'k and Borova further N, it's unlikely they'll be able to clear that entirely.
If they regroup to Kreminna, we'll likely see a repeat of the Kherson scenario, where UAF will start to target the crossings on the Krasna to force a retreat. I don't think Belousov or Gerasimov would survive authoring that sort of an order.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 25 September 2026 - 07:14 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine has secured approaches to Lyman and pushed the Russians back to Yampil and Torske, which are now both under attack. The Russians are really on the back foot up there, although claims of a general collapse along that front remain extremely premature.

[Werthead]

Ukraine is pummelling Rodynske and Pokrovsk hard with long-range strikes at the moment, apparently causing panic because some Russian forces on this sector have been withdrawn to the Lyman front, which is still in a state of total disarray, if not partial collapse, and now they're worried about a Ukrainian counter-offensive in this sector as well (that seems optimistic, but anyway).

Some reporting on Russian Telegram from front-line units saying they've been told from superior officers that over "two million" Ukrainian soldiers are dead so Ukraine has no army left, which is why they've been told to attack along the entire front, resulting in catastrophic losses and total confusion when they find the Ukrainian military has oddly not been entirely wiped out after all. I refuse to believe the more cynical Russian soldiers would have believed that for a nanosecond.

Ukraine has confirmed the Lyman offensive was spearheaded by hundreds of ground-assault drones, making the Russians believe an entire Ukrainian assault group was hitting them and leaving Ukraine with a strategic victory with relatively low combat losses.

More than 250 Russian soldiers stuck behind the lines on the Lyman front have surrendered. One of the largest mass-surrenders of Russian troops of the war.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 28 September 2026 - 10:53 AM

[Mentalist]

DeepState updates the map on the Lyman axis with "Part 3 of Operation Vivaldi"- which includes Ridkodub, Katerynivka, Nove and Lypove, as well as a few SQKM E of Novomykhailivka towards Makiyivka (no, not that one).

Biletsky claims the 3rd Army Corps took about 250 prisoners during this phase, where the orcs were expecting an assault from Shandryholove towards Zelena Dolyna, but the hit came on the flank instead.

Although this clearly shows some gains, the narrowest part of the remaining enemy salient is still 9 x 9, with another 7 x 12 wider segment all the way to the Zherebets; this could be declared as "cleared" territory in phase 4; But even this would still leave a roughly 30 x 25 area from the Zherebets to the Krasna, which is my shorthand for "pushed past the maximum gains of autumn 2022" for the UAF.

Basically, while this infinitely complicates the orcs' task of "capturing all of Donbas", it doesn't add that much to UAF's goal of 'deoccupying the northern part of Luhans'k Oblast to the pre-2022 situation". Stabilizing the frontline along the Krasna (including liberating Kreminna) would be the absolutely best case scenario in this sector. And that's being extremely optimistic, imho.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 28 September 2026 - 08:18 PM

[Werthead]

Now reporting that Terny is under drone attack, with Ukrainian ground forces not that far away. This is pretty crazy, these are all places that Russia was capturing two years ago and now Ukraine has put them back in the fight, though I remain sceptical things are going as well as the optimists are saying. The Russian bloggers may be overcompensating for having the wool pulled over their eyes.

Even Russian maps are showing Yampil and Torske as in the grey zone but heavily-contested (which is their speak for likely to fall).

Ukraine has released footage of Russian PoWs taken during Operation Vivaldi, with some claiming they decided to surrender after they were ordered to "eat nettles" once they were cut off from resupply.

Late story breaking about a package arriving at a Polish military police station in Nowa Dęba causing skin irritation and medical problems. The package was apparently sent from Germany. Polish Chemical, Biological, Radiological and Nuclear (CBRN) teams are responding to the incident.

Ah, interesting. Increasing Ukrainian strikes on Russian-held territory along the lower Dnipro. Apparently Ukrainian forces are operating near the Antonivskyi Bridge and the nearby Dachi settlement. The Russians remain concerned of Ukraine using distractions elsewhere to try to hit this sector very heavily, which Russia would struggle to defend against, since Russia has stripped numerous troops from this area to reinforce the north.

The Ukrainians are aware of the difficulties of establishing reliable lines of communication and supply across the flooded lower Dnipro and will also be recalling their attempt to establish a beach-head near Krynky a couple of years ago that ended badly.

Ukraine has confirmed the first combat deployment of the FP7 ballistic missile against targets in Russian-occupied Ukraine, possibly Crimea.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 02 October 2026 - 10:54 AM

[Mentalist]

Orcs started hitting bridges in Kyiv with jet drones. Meanwhile, Ukraine is wearing through its F-16s, b/c they are being worked hard to try to intercept as many of those jet drones as possible.

The orcs are quite unhappy due to all the frontline issues they are having on multiple axes. They are still massing on the Dobropillya axis, hoping to swing NW of the fortress belt towards Barvinkove to isolate its supply lines. 4 armies are massed on that 50 km stretch, which is why they are able to sustain pressure despite the damage that 1st NGU corps "Azov" is inflicting on them;


At the same time, they are still enjoying the upper hand in long-range strikes (they are mass-producing jet drones, while UA hasn't scaled up interceptor production yet; they have upper hand in ballistics, while UA is hamstrung by trump burning through Patriot missiles in the Gulf). So they're gonna play the "let's make big cities un-livable to destabilize the population" card again, and lean into it even more, b/c frankly they are steadily losing frontline momentum. UAF is still trying to push on the Velyka Novosilka axis, the 3rd Army Corps is trying to make gains on the Zherebets, and there's also some low-key buzz about further advances N of Kup'yansk, on the Dvorichna axis.



The situation is horrible, but until UA scales up jet drone interceptor production (preferably in Central Europe, where it's less likely to be damaged), the news cycle is just going to be going around in circles. Zelenskykeeps promising that FirePoint's ballistic missiles will come "in autumn" and they'll "be able to hit Moscow". But while I appreciate his role in keeping people's motivation up, I really hope their primary targets are places like Alabuga, Ust-Luga, and major weapon production plants, rather than some half-empty Moscow government office.

Because I don't believe that the majority of the 20-odd million residents of Moscow and Moscow oblast' will drastically change their minds about the horrors of war, even if a ballistic missile gets intercepted and levels a high-rise apartment block. I just think it's too late for that, and the people involved in it have built up sufficient detachment to accept it as "yet another risk factor" without really acting out. So I'd rather see the biggest explosions in places that directly impact the economy and the war supply chain.

[Werthead]

Some rumours that St. Petersburg may enact lockdown precautions this week after the plague outbreak in Irkutsk, Moscow is preparing measures but not implementing them yet.

Ukraine has shown greater success at shooting down Geran jet-powered drones, including use of the STASH anti-air system and an adaptation of the Vampire AA system Ukraine acquired earlier in the conflict. Ukraine's robotic gun turrets may soon be moved to cover key positions in Kyiv and other major cities.

An Su-34 and an Su-35 were destroyed on the tarmac at Khanskaya Airbase.

Apparently Russia's second-largest political party, the Communist Party, staged an extremely rare protest in Moscow. The protest was legal, as they claimed they wanted to commemorate the 1993 constitutional crisis, but the protest rapidly grew to over 2,000 people, with chants of "down with the czar!" Around 100 people were arrested. Oddly, the Russian state gets nervous when communists start assembling in the capital.

ETA: Some Russian bloggers reporting a bit of a shock tonight, its latest jet-powered Geran assault on Kyiv was stopped almost in its tracks, with only 4 drones getting through (so far). The rest were destroyed by ground AA fire and Ukrainian jet aircraft. Ukraine is deploying new weapons and tactics to minimise the threat from jet drones, but these weren't expected to be this effective this early.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 05 October 2026 - 11:13 PM

[Werthead]

The ISW has assessed that Operation Vivaldi has been a total success and has shattered the Russian northern front in Donetsk. They're still try to figure out where the front is, as Russian forces have fragmented during the retreat and it's unclear where the line will be fully reconstituted, on or well behind the Zherebets.

Ukraine has apparently initiated a new targeting strategy for its long-range drones, hitting Yandex's data centre in  Sasovo, Ryazan. The data centre took multiple hits and caught fire, disrupting internet services. If Ukraine starts systematically hitting data centres the way they hit delivery centres, there's not a lot that could be done to stop them.

Ukraine is pushing its logistics disruption mission further into Luhansk Oblast, destroying an entire supply column of 20 vehicles. Some figures putting at over 3,500, and maybe closer to 4,000, supply vehicles were destroyed in the Donetsk-Luhansk border area in recent months.

The Russian Omsk Oil Refinery has taken another serious hit.

Putin has apparently personally ordered the destruction of all the bridges in Kyiv, and in terms of rules of engagement in civilian areas, has reportedly said, "there are no rules."

This post has been edited by Werthead: 08 October 2026 - 05:52 PM

[Werthead]

Montenegro has kicked out Russian milblogger Rybar, deeming his presence in the country no longer acceptable.

Putin's aircraft was apparently forced to circle Moscow for almost an hour due to ongoing Ukrainian drone strikes before it could land.

At least 20 senior Russian officers were killed in the 26 August missile strike on the Russian 41st Army HQ in Donetsk. 7 colonels, 6 lieutenant colonels, 5 majors, 1 captain and 1 senior lieutenant were KIA.

Ukraine has struck the Ukhta oil refinery in western Siberia, more than 1700km from Ukraine.

[Mentalist]

Head of Z-channel Rybar', his wife and 3 associates were arrested in Montenegro. He is wanted by the US, so that's gonna be fun.



Another strike on a Yandex data center. They only have 5 big ones, and they are well-known, sooo....

Kyiv is suffering from blackouts. The orcs are also continuing to terrorize main frontline cities. A few days ago we had 9 people killed in Kharkiv, 2 days ago over 20 were killed in Priluky (region center in Chernihiv Oblast), and yesterday a glide bomb hit 2 buses in Kramators'k. Over 30 people dead.

Apparently UA launched a combo drones + recon balloon attack on Moscow. The airports are closed, just as putler was supposed to be flying back from Turkmenistan. His plane(s) are being rerouted to St. Petersburg.



UAF sent more drones to the Lukoil refinery in Ukhta, Komi republic, but again, they seem to have failed to hit the processing units. For some reason, they haven't had a good hit on that one yet. Could be the combination of distance and cold, but then again, they managed more accurate hits in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous Okrug, which is even further north, so ionno. (Ukhta is not quite Siberia, Komi is W of the Urals, but it's considered part of the Far North)

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 09 October 2026 - 04:40 PM

[Tsundoku]

Werthead, on 09 October 2026 - 04:14 PM, said:

At least 20 senior Russian officers were killed in the 26 August missile strike on the Russian 41st Army HQ in Donetsk. 7 colonels, 6 lieutenant colonels, 5 majors, 1 captain and 1 senior lieutenant were KIA.

Just purely nitpicking because I just love being THAT guy ( ), but anything under LTCOL is definitely not a senior officer, and LTCOLs are pretty much on the border. COLs are seniors for sure.

Otherwise, love all your work lads.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

The evil orange shit for brains has made a deal with Pootler to supply 3 million tons of diesel to US and global markets, including 300,000 "immediately" and 500,000 in November (not clear if the latter would be before the midterms).

One bizarre thing about this is that Russia is already suffering from a diesel shortage. And the agreement contains nothing about deescalating the war, even though I'd imagine most of the Russian war effort is heavily dependenr on diesel.

Someone on social media claimed that the agreement will somehow pressure Ukraine to stop attacking Russian refineries but gave no explanation.

Quote

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded angrily to Trump's announcement, writing on X that any sanctions relief for Russia outside of a "lasting de-escalation agreement ... is an obvious weakness."

[...] "Putin and others are trying to opportunistically shift blame for high diesel prices onto Ukraine, rather than the U.S.-Israel-Iran war devastating global supply chains," said Joseph Webster, an energy and geopolitics analyst with the Atlantic Council, a nonpartisan think tank.

"These putative Russian export volumes are not only uncertain to materialize but are small in volume and wouldn't address the global diesel shortage," he said via email.

Trump announces major diesel deal with Putin, infuriating Ukrainey - Axios

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 09 October 2026 - 10:59 PM

[Mentalist]

None of it is likely to reach the US before midterms, tbh.

They'll probably ship it from the Baltics, and that's a long trip. I don't think they can get stuff from the Far East, since they've shut down the 2 refineries tehre for maintenance and are buying from China and Korea.

it is such a dumb stunt, since it really does nothing for the US, and it also removes the veneer f lip service that UA was previously paying to the Washington. Obviously Kyiv isn't going to stop.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

After Trump announced the agreeement Ukraine hit Russia's NZNP Rostovsky oil products export terminal, causing a massive fire... video:

https://www.facebook...458807743084467

[Tiste Simeon]

Is this deal with Putin going to be a reason for "we can't support Ukraine anymore because they're getting in the way of the deal"?

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

According to Cloudflare Data Explorer the amount of russian bot traffic has dropped to 49% after Ukraine struck a yandex data center. Could this disrupt the midterm elections in the US?

https://x.com/yoda69...280211863421355

If true, and assuming it's also accurate that the amount of diesel Russia has supposedly agreed to release really won't have a significant impact on diesel prices, I wonder if Trump's deal with Putin was partly intended as retaliation for this...

[Vengeance]

Orc shops loaded with diesel burn brightly in the sky is what it sounds like to me.