[Werthead]

​Girkin has offered his gloomiest assessment of the war to date: the Zelensky regime has not been overthrown and is stronger than in 2022; the "de-Russification" of Ukraine has accelerated dramatically with the establishing of an independent Ukrainian church, and "Nazi propaganda" has "brainwashed the population." "Hatred for Russia has not only failed to diminish but accelerated many times over."

No "demilitarization of Ukraine" has been achieved. There are hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian troops in front of the Russian lines, better-equipped and more numerous than in 2022, well-organised, resilient and experienced. There is war fatigue but no sign of an imminent collapse, and an untapped reserve of hundreds of thousands of younger people. Ukrainian forces are continuing to operate on Russian soil over four months after their initial incursion. Ukraine is hitting reach echelons, striking industrial and infrastructure facilities on a scale that "grows month by month."

The territories of the "new regions" have not been liberated from the enemy. The adversary continues to hold the capital and most of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, and a large chunk of Donetsk. Russian successes in Kharkiv are minimal. There is "no chance" that all "constitutional" territories of the Russian Federation can be liberated militarily in the near future. The special military operation "has failed."

Russian propagandists and Telegram bloggers on Trump's comments: "As we assumed, Trump's plan is an ultimatum and blackmail. Better to prepare for the worst. Biden's term will soon be remembered with nostalgia as a thaw."

A Russian spy ship, believed capable of cutting undersea cables, transited the Straits of Dover today, escorted by a British destroyer. Shortly afterwards, a Royal Navy submarine unexpectedly surfaced in close proximity to the ship. The MoD issued a statement at the same time: "We see you, we know what you're doing, and we will not hesitate to take decisive action to defend this country."

Turkish and British aircraft were operational over the Black Sea today, carrying out long-range monitoring of the Black Sea and Crimea. At one point the British aircraft was very close to Izmail on the Ukrainian-Romanian border.

Ukraine is continuing to carry out operations in the Serebriansk Forest in Donetsk. This has been a weird battle, where Ukraine has not been able to reclaim territory due to infantry shortages, but has been able to fight mobile battles using armour (including some very rare tank-on-tank engagements). They used a drone equipped with a loudspeaker to encourage a Russian soldier to surrender.

The Ukrainian 3rd Assault Brigade has a platoon who speak perfect Russian and are equipped with Russian military IDs. On several occasions they have joined Russian lines and taken entire Russian squads prisoner.

Russian reinforcements have finally reached Kursk, forcing Ukraine to shift to defensive operations. However, the Russian forces have continued to attack in stupid "meat wave" assaults, limiting their effectiveness. Two Russian columns were also destroyed behind the lines by drone strikes.

Ukrainian flags were flown across the country on Unity Day, including in the Russian-occupied cities of Donetsk, Luhansk, Sevastopol, Simferopol, Yalta, Yevpatoria, Melitopol and Henichesk.

In an attempt to regain momentum, Russia has attempted night attacks in several sectors. This proved to be unwise as Russian soldiers have a shortage of night vision goggles, whilst Ukraine is positively overflowing with them. Several Russian tanks were destroyed at night by Javelins, whilst an attempted attack on a Ukrainian fortified position in a farmhouse was destroyed, with the Russian soldiers not equipped with enough night vision equipment to even return fire effectively.

Israel has captured a great deal of Russian-made equipment in Lebanon, Syria and Gaza. The Israeli Foreign Ministry has proposed transferring such equipment to Ukraine.

Zelensky has signed new agreements with Albania and Azerbaijan. Apparently Ukraine has shared information with Azerbaijan on detecting Russian air defence weaponry, a nod to the Russian AA missile that destroyed an Azerbaijani civilian airliner. Azerbaijan, unhappy with Russian verbal support for Armenia during their recent conflicts (the lack of material support led Armenia to basically telling Russia to f off and signed a cooperation agreement with the United Stats), probably did this as a pointed message to Putin that he is losing support in the region.

Steven Seagal is apparently taking part in visits to Ukrainian POWs. One POW, who spoke English fluently, insulted Seagal and was beaten up afterwards (by Russian soldiers, not Seagal).

Syrian media is reporting that Tartus Port Authority has terminated its contracts with Russian companies and the government of Russia, and requested that all personnel leave Tartus immediately. The status of the many tons of Russian supplies and equipment in the port is unknown.

The EU is increasing its funding to Ukraine to €35 billion ($36 billion) for the year.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 22 January 2025 - 09:04 PM

[Werthead]

It looks like a bunch more Swedish CV-90s are in service in Ukraine. We've seen limited records of their service, but only a few have been delivered so far. Their main selling point is better armour and a much more powerful main gun than the Bradley (40mm Bofors versus a 25mm autocannon), which should be able to shred more Russian tanks in direct fire.

Ukrainian military analysis of the North Korean soldiers operating in Kursk: they are younger, fitter and, in some cases, better-equipped than the Russians. They advance doggedly in the face of superior fire and minefields, showing better battlefield discipline than most Russian recruits. The North Koreans try to take strongpoints and then withdraw after Russian forces arrive to hold the position. This means that NK soldiers are rarely holding positions on the front and usually rest in more comfortable quarters well behind the lines. This helps with their morale (possibly doing less for Russian morale, but still). They have also developed an effective anti-drone tactic of using single soldiers to "bait" drones whilst their fellows locate and destroy the drone with small arms. One interesting tactic has been using EW to jam the drones, forcing them to switch to autonomous mode, and then halting movement, which often causes the autonomous AI to stop the drone as well as it tries to reacquire the target. This provides a window for them to destroy the drone. This has been successful on several occasions, though some evidence suggests at other times it hasn't been and North Korean soldiers have been eliminated. The Ukrainians have responded by instructing the drones' AI to target formations and ignore single soldiers.

North Korean soldiers have been instructed to commit suicide rather than surrender. They also recover their dead from the battlefield rather than leaving them, as is Russian standard practice. Ukrainian assessment is that NK soldiers have performed better than expected and are a potent threat on the battlefield. They do acknowledge that these are better-trained, elite NK troops though, not the standard quality recruits.

Russia has so far said they see "nothing new" in Trump's statements on escalating sanctions, and complain that Trump has ignored diplomatic overtures on their part. Trump has requested that OPEC increase oil production to force Russia to halt the war, and Saudi Arabia has agreed to consider the request (which likely translates to them not doing anything). Kremlin insiders are saying that Putin has taken much more "urgent" notice of the economic problems over the last month. Apparently some Kremlin messaging has suggested recently that the establishing of the land corridor to Crimea and the near-total conquest of Luhansk Oblast is a "tremendous result" even if  they only hold parts of Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Whether that's really groundwork being laid for an end to the war or not is unclear. Some cautioning about wishful thinking.

Mark Rutte has suggested a new process where other NATO members pay for equipment to be sent from the USA to Ukraine.

Ukrainian personnel captured by the Houthis have been freed in a deal brokered by Oman.

The Pentagon has confirmed that the 90-day moratorium on international support from the US to other countries does not impact military aid to Ukraine, which is exempted. However, Trump's figures are not always the best (he said that Russia lost 60 million dead in WWII when it really lost between 12 and 13 million, with another 14-15 million from the other Soviet republics).

Trump has said that American numbers are that Russia has lost over 800,000 troops killed, captured or wounded; this is somewhat higher than prior estimates. He also estimates that Ukraine has lost 600,000 troops and civilians killed, captured or wounded, which is again somewhat higher than estimates but not as much. 

Serbia has indicated it is willing to support Ukraine's membership of the European Union, possibly as it tries to get its own membership program off the ground again, although myriad problems (including mixed support in Serbia and the status of Kosovo) continue to make that problematic.

Russia has ground out an advance south-west of Pokrovsk and then north, taking the village of Kotlyne. This completes the encirclement of Pokrovsk's southern flank, and puts Russian forces just to the south-west. However, a ferocious Ukrainian defence continues to hold off attacks to the east and north-east. This creates a headache for Russia as they can't encircle the town. They may have to resort to trying to storm it with most of the supply routes into the town still open, which could turn incredibly nasty very quickly.

[Mentalist]

loads of stuff blowing up in Muscovy tonight. The Ryazan oil refinery is not liking the drone debris.

[Werthead]

Ukraine carried out an impressively coordinated strike on two of Russia's most important logistics hubs and supply chains. The Kremniy El factory in Bryansk creates a lot of the electronics needed for Russia's military. Two drone impacts took out vital parts of the installation that have effectively halted production. No massive explosions and the place isn't ablaze, so I'd assume they can get back online in a few days, but still a crucial hit.

Far bigger was a very substantial drone hit on Rosneft's main facility in Ryazan. Rosneft is currently helping keep the Russian economy afloat. The hit was huge, sparking a major fire. The Novo-Ryazanskaya CHPP (combined heat power planet) was also severely damaged. Airports across the Moscow region were shut down. More than 100 drones targeted Russian installations in dozens of areas, one of the two or three largest Ukrainian strikes on Russian territory.

A US cargo plane flew from Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany to Nevatim Air Force Base, Israel, spent three hours on the tarmac, then flew to Rzeszo Airport in Poland, the main logistics hub for aid to Ukraine. The nature of the trip was unknown.

Ukrainian sources congratulating a British RAF Typhoon pilot who had to eject his canopy after a birdstrike severely damaged it. He managed to land the Typhoon at base without a canopy.

Russia has captured the village of Velyka Novosilka. Ukrainian forces withdrew rather than risk encirclement.

[Werthead]

Ryazan hit repeatedly for several nights now, substantial damage. If they can knock the entire facility offline (difficult, it's massive with backups and redundancies), that will have a measurable impact on Russia's supply and economic situation. Nearby residents furious about a lack of air defence.

[Werthead]

A Ukrainian navy vessel used a VAMPIRE SAM to shoot down a cruise missile, in the first interception of its kind. VAMPIRE is a solid AA solution for older aerial threats, but it's been modified in Ukraine to handle higher-velocity targets, which is impressive.

A large contingent of Russian soldiers have been captured in Vovchansk. It's unclear if this is the same group reported several days ago or a new one. The Russians have been failing to reinforce their positions around Vovchansk and the Ukrainians seem to have grinded forwards, though they are hesitant about announcing the total liberation of the town. This would be the first urban area completely recaptured by Ukraine in some considerable time. Ukraine has also destroyed a major mechanised attack force in Kupyansk, which means Russia's attempts to move forward from the small amounts of territory it holds in Kharkiv Oblast have been soundly defeated (again). Total ejection of Russian forces from Kharkiv Oblast (again) remains a medium-term Ukrainian goal, and is plausible.

The suspension of US international aid does not include Ukraine. This has now been confirmed by US as well as Ukrainian sources.

Ukraine has created an incentives programme to encourage younger men (18-25) to enlist. At the moment there is no mandatory need for younger men to join the military. Ukraine is also encouraging younger men to join reach echelon positions like drone units to avoid the front line. Like Russia, Ukraine is trying to avoid exacerbating its demographic problems.

In the same week, Serbia has praised Ukraine joining the EU and also refused to impose sanctions on Russia, and may even talk to Moscow about how to avoid US sanctions on Serbia's own industries.

Poland and Hungary are having a war of words over Hungary's stance on the war.

Fico in Slovakia is blaming the mass protests against him on Ukraine, despite the fact he his being severely question by some on his own side and in his own party, particularly over financial irregularities and holidays paid for by undisclosed parties.

Sweden is expanding its assistance programme to Ukraine.

Ukraine abandoned a trenchline in what appeared to be a tactical retreat, allowing Russian forces to occupy it, before the trench was zeroed by artillery and drones. Apparently this is a common tactic on some areas of the front. It's had mixed results, but with Russia being more desperate in trying to gain ground, it seems to have become more effective recently.

Ukraine destroyed a Russian storage facility containing over 200 drones and their munitions in Oryol.

Contrary to some reports, Ukraine has not retreated from Toretsk and has carried out a limited counter-offensive, retaking several streets and taking at least four Russians prisoner. Some mixed signals about Toretsk, it took Russia much longer and far more casualties to take the town, and it's unclear how many of their reserves they've burned through, so Russian resources for securing the town may be stretched, opening the way for successful Ukrainian attacks. Probably too much to hope for for a full overstretch, as when Ukraine drove Russian forces out of Kupyansk a few months ago after Russia simply ran out of men on that front.

Belarus has warned Poland against invading Ukraine, because that's a thing that might happen I guess.

Russia has made some advances in the sliver of Luhansk Oblast under Ukrainian control. Russia securing full control of Luhansk Oblast is one of their short-term objectives and would appear to be within reach, with Luhansk something like 98% occupied by Russia. 

[Werthead]

Curious report that North Korean troops in Kursk have pulled out. Possibly to be joined by reinforcements, but it's interesting they decided to pull out the existing troops already. Some (possibly over-optimistic) reports that the North Koreans had suffered 40% casualties.

Possibly related, there was a fierce battle a few days ago at Malaya Loknya, Kursk, where Ukrainian forces defeated a massed North Korean attack. An entire Korean battalion was apparently destroyed or driven back, and three lieutenant colonels were killed.

Three US cargo planes landed at Rzeszow over the weekend, confirming US supplies to Ukraine are continuing (for now).

Capital outflow in Russia is reaching concerning levels. $9.6 billion dollars were removed from the Russian economy in 2024, compared to $7.2 billion in 2023 and $6 billion in 2022. The 2024 figures are the worst since the 1990s economic crisis.

Magnitogorsk Metallurgical Plant and Norilsk Nikel, Russia's two largest metallurgical companies, have had to decrease production and lay off workers, as they unable to sell on the global market. They have been able to sell some materials to China, but China has rinsed them for a 16% price reduction compared to what they were paying western markets.

The Russian MS-21 passenger aircraft has been delayed once again. The aircraft was originally supposed to enter production in 2016 but sanctions have repeatedly delayed it. Apparently anger in the Kremlin as more and more of their western-built planes are going out of comission due to a lack of spare parts.

The price of Russian oil has dropped below what was used to work out the Russian budget for 2025, alarming economists who fear that Russia will now have to overspend and borrow/print money even more.

Moldova is apparently planning to open the pipes to allow 3 million cubic metres of gas to Transnistria. This came after the head of Transnistria today announced the country only has around 48 hours of gas remaining. Protestors on the streets of Transnistria have been demanding he accept the offer of gas from Moldova, the EU and Ukraine, whilst Transnistria has been refusing on Russian orders.

A rather wild plan is circulating on Russian Telegram to take Lenin out of his mausoleum and replacing him with Putin, "a real emperor," when his time to pass away comes.

Putin has apparently suggested that bilateral US-Russian talks on Ukraine could include discussions on new arms limitation treaties to replace those due to expire next year. Trump is apparently open to nuclear discussions but only if China takes part. So far China, which is planning to at least double its nuclear arsenal in the next decade, has proven reluctant.

Some Russian soldiers in Ukraine have been sent into battle in handcuffs, having been arrested for desertion or other offences.

Current damage assessment of the two attacks on the Ryazan oil refinery is that the AVT-4 unit, which processes crude oil, was destroyed. Fires in the desulfurization and vacuum gasoil conversion units have effectively crippled the installation for the foreseeable future. Some of these repairs will require full rebuilds of the impacted units.

Syria has allowed Russia's two Sparta cargo ships to dock at Tartus to pick up Russian equipment. Once they're gone, the Tartus facility will revert to Syrian government control.

An S-400 radar facility has been destroyed by HIMARS, the first such loss we've seen for a while.

A Hong Kong-linked cargo vessel has damaged the undersea cables between Sweden and Latvia. The vessel has been detained by Swedish warships as part of NATO operations in the Baltic to deter cable-cutting.

Hungary may agree to join sanctions on Russia in return for Ukraine...allowing gas into Hungary from Russia. Ukraine is apparently considering whether this would be better or worse as a deal for Russia.

Russian forces have mounted a major assault on the Pokrovsk front using motorcycles. This attack was defeated with heavy Russian losses.

[Werthead]

A single Leopard 2A4 drove back an entire Russian column near Kurakhove in November. The tank waited under cover and then engaged the lead vehicle, causing chaos. Whilst the vehicles behind it milled around in confusion, it picked off several more, with several catastrophic ammunition detonations destroying vehicles outright. The Ukrainian vehicle was undamaged, despite confused attempts to return fire.

The first Mirages will be in Ukraine by the end of March.

For a while there have been wild stories that Russia has been retro-engineering components from video game consoles to use in drone control systems. As a result, the EU is likely to ban all third-party sales of the PlayStation, Xbox and Switch platforms to Russia.

Italy has authorised the continued sale of military and civilian equipment and aid to Ukraine until the end of 2025.

One area of the front in Kursk which was retaken by the Russians using North Korean shock troops has been re-recaptured by Ukraine. SSO troops from the 8th Regiment eliminated two North Korean soldiers, injured seven and captured small arms and equipment.

Ukrainian forces of the 425th Separate Assault Brigade went on the offensive in Kotlyn, Donetsk, eliminating several Russian positions.

Ukrainian drones have hit the Lukhoil-Nizhny Novgorodnefteorgsintez facility in Kstovo, Nizhny-Novogorod Oblast, over 800km from the Ukrainian border. It looks like multiple drone impacts, causing several large explosions and one massive fire. This is the 4th largest refinery in Russia by production volume.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 28 January 2025 - 11:30 PM

[Werthead]

Ukrainian drones hit the Volgograd Refinery, setting part of the facility ablaze.

In the last few weeks, Ukraine has hit several of Russia's largest refineries, causing significant damage. These are facilities that were all informally "off-limits" as per the Biden Administration's agreements with Ukraine. Since Biden was headed out the door, Ukraine has seen no reason to abide by that agreement and has been hitting several of Russia's most key oil facilities with abandon. The Trump2 Administration either doesn't care, has encouraged, or not yet gotten around to getting Ukraine to lay off.

As a result of this and direct hits on the facility, the Ust-Luga port SW of St. Petersburg, near the Estonian border, fall to 0 oil exports on 29 January, shipping no oil at all. Output through the port had been low for some time following several direct hits on the port by Ukrainian drones.

Ukraine has also blown up a pumping station on the Druzhba oil pipeline, formerly used to pump oil from Russia to Europe, but inactive since the start of the year. This is very close to the Belarusian border.

Ukraine has reduced its growth forecast from 4.3 to 3.6% for 2025, citing the economic challenges of the war. Still, surprisingly robust (well over twice what the UK, France or Germany are expected to achieve) given the situation.

Sweden has confirmed $1.2 billion in aid for Ukraine, a massive amount given Sweden's size and population. Sweden will directly part-fund Ukraine's long-range missile and drone production programmes. Both Germany and Sweden are going to fund additional mine-clearing technologies for Ukraine (Germany recently unveiled the Keiler, a very advanced mine-clearing vehicle with the potential to blow up entire fields at once, with some believing it could be field-tested in Ukraine).

The UK and Ukraine are to sign a new deal worth $2 billion to improve Ukrainian air defences and provide more air defence ammunition.

A Doctor Mohammad Zakaria was praised in Ukraine. He was performing delicate surgery when air raid sirens went off in Chornomorsk, Odesa. He felt it would be dangerous to halt the surgery so continued. An explosion blew glass across the operating room, injuring his left hand. After confirming the patient was uninjured, he continued and successfully completed the operation, before seeking medical treatment himself. He returned to work as normal the next day.

One Russian video on Telegram showing a soldier almost breaking down in what he calls "the forest of death." Almost his entire unit was destroyed by artillery and drones. The only bodies in sight are Russians, no Ukrainians. He calls it "a horror movie," and the remaining soldiers have not been relieved to allowed to retreat. The precise location on the front is unclear.

Russian grain exports are collapsing, with a 42% drop in year-on-year sales in January. The government is blaming the weather, but the Russian Grain Union has angrily blamed outdated farming technology, with poor seeding in 2025. They try very hard not to blame the SMO draining their manpower, but they do also note severe limitations in workers in the last couple of years. They also note that the situation near the front is so volatile that Russian farmers are refusing to take over farms in the "new territories," completely nullifying the gain of taking them. Russia has been trying to offer China discounts on grain, but China is preferring "higher-quality" grain from Kazakhstan and, increasingly and infuriatingly (for Russia), Ukraine. If current trends hold, total grain exports for 2025 could be down over a third on 2024, and starting to head back down to the levels last seen in the early 1990s when Russia's agricultural sector almost collapsed.

A second ship implicated in damaging cables between Estonia and Sweden has been located and detailed by Norwegian authorities. The vessel was under a Norwegian flag but had an entirely Russian crew.

Ukrainian cyber specialists attacked and froze the operations of Gazprom and Gazprom Neft on 28 January, preventing customers from accessing accounts, using online services or paying for fuel. Gazprom have only admitted to a technical hitch.

The 24th Mechanized Brigade is defending Chasiv Yar, or more correctly now the ruins of Chasiv Yar, and has destroyed a Russian mechanised column. Russian advances around the town are minor and incremental.

The 60th Mechanized Brigade defending Terny, Lyman, repelled a significant Russian assault on the area.

The 12th Special Forces Brigade used a 203mm self-propelled Pion to eliminate several tanks in battle at Toretsk. Russia is claiming to have captured Toretsk, but Ukrainian forces are holding on there.

The Ukrainian "Phoenix" unit has destroyed 4 tanks, an SPG, 2 guns, a radar system, 2 BMP-2s and both ammo and fuel depots along the Donetsk front.

Ukrainian naval drone attack on Crimea, unclear the target or effectiveness.

Ukraine has destroyed a large Russian drone control station, and a Russian command post in Rylsk, Kursk Oblast, the latter using ATACMS.

Russia has taken Novoandriivka, west of Donetsk, but its attempt to take neighbouring Nadiivka is being held up by fierce Ukrainian resistance. Russian advances in the Kurakhove sector are also being held up by a Ukrainian strongpoint at Dachne. Russia may be trying to encircle, but its slow going.

The IAEA is travelling to Ukraine to try to improve safety standards at Ukrainian nuclear plants (held and captured by Russia) to prevent a nuclear accident as a result of the war.

Czech sources are saying that up to 2,000 Russian diplomats, aides, staff and family members may be capable of carrying out sabotage operations in the Schengen zone.

Russian forces in Kherson are still training and preparing for a possible assault across the mouth of the Dnipro, despite almost zero success in clearing the opposite shore or suppressing Ukrainian superiority in the area in terms of artillery. Russian soldiers are still protesting this.

North Korean forces now appear to have been withdrawn fully from the front line in Kursk, with Ukrainian forces saying they haven't seen any for two weeks. It is unclear if they are being reinforced or retrained.

[Mentalist]

According to Yuri Butusov, UAF seems to have finally abandoned the idea of forming brand-new brigades from fresh recruits.
$ such brigades are being disbanded, the personnel to be used to reinforce existing, active and depleted units. This means that new recruits get to be watched over and instructed in the field by actual vets. There's been outcry about this for at least 8 months, with Syrsky and co being accused of favoritism, creating new units to give his general buddies command positions. After the scandal with the 155th Mechanized, things are seemingly finally being done to address the issue.

Duma deputee introduced a bill to "combat global Satanism". More importantly, the Fed Council is mulling a moratorium of bankruptcy for real estate developers. With the closure of subsidized mortgages, people aren't as keen to buy newly built apartments, while developers are getting hit hard with repayments on their variable rate loans, what with the interest rate being 21% now. So there's a concern that if developers default on loans and get bankrupted, this will cause a major disruption of the construction sector, which employs a lot of people. And if they aren't allowed to collapse, then the banks might have problems. So it's tough no matter which way you call it.

Orcs continue to expand their bridgehead W of the oskip upstream from Kup'yan's'k. This is concerning.

[Werthead]

A Russian aircraft tried to hit a Ukrainian formation in Kursk with a glide bomb. They released too early, not uncommon as aircraft try to pull up and retreat short of the target to avoid ground fire, and hit an internat (boarding school) in Sudzha. The facility was being used as an evacuation point. Dozens of civilians were killed, most of them Russian. Russia wasted no time in trying to blame Ukraine for the attack. 95 injured, killed or missing.

Baba Yaga variants are now running on fibre optics.

Ukraine reports striking 25 strategic sites in January, including oil depots, weapons factories and refineries. Facilities were targeted for directly supporting the war effort or Russia's war economy.

North Korean families have found a way of getting their husbands, sons and fathers out of duty in Ukraine, by bribing doctors to fake diagnoses of tuberculosis. There's been recent outbreaks of TB in NK military barracks.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has launched one of its largest drone strikes of the war. 13 strikes on Voronezh, 43 on Rostov, 8 on Belgorod. An unknown number of drones attacked Volgograd, first suppressing the aerial defence and then hitting the oil refinery again, causing a second series of large explosions. Unconfirmed report that the Nizhny Novgorod refinery has been hit a second time, and reports of drone strikes on Tambov, Saratov, Samara, Penza, Saransk and Ryazan.

In Kursk, Russia has launched repeated waves of attacks to retake the village of Pogrebky. The Russians appear to have exhausted their reserves of troops in the region and have now retreated, allowing Ukraine to expand beyond the village into surrounding villages and treelines. Ukraine has also held fast in Makhnivka, Kursk, where the 61st Separate Jaeger Brigade destroyed a Russian attempt to capture the village. The 103rd Separate Brigade similarly held onto its territory in the face of a serious mechanized attack.

Russian forces have been cuit off in Velyka Novosilka by the 110th Mechanized Brigade. The Russians are unable to advance but have been cut off from resupply and reinforcement. Ukraine has offered them the chance to surrender but they are fighting on.

Ex-British Conservative MP Jack Lopresti, who lost his seat in the 2024 election, has joined the Russian Foreign Legion. A former British soldier (though only in the reserves, and currently 56), he is using his military experience to assist Ukraine.

The Czech opposition ANO Party is leading in the polls ahead of an election in October and has signalled it may halt artillery shell supplies to Ukraine. The current government is looking for a NATO partner to take over the shell procurement effort against this contingency.

The tally for January 2025 from Ukraine's air defence net was over 2300 projectiles, including 31 cruise missiles, 2 ballistic missiles, 1595 Shahed drones and 215 miscellaneous (including ground launch facilities destroyed in retribution attacks by Ukrainian drones and aviation).

A Russian Kh-22 cruise missile malfunctions in the air and crashed in Lipetsk region, hitting open countryside. Nobody was injured. Russian missile malfunctions seem to be increasing.

Ukraine has confirmed receiving $75 billion in aid from the United States only, disputing claims of $200 billion in aid. They suggest this figure exists only on paper.

A Russian attempt to create an offshore account in Turkey to hold $5 billion in reserves has been thwarted and shut down by US financial services, working with Turkish colleagues.

Along the front, Ukraine is reporting Russian armored assaults are changing from a mixture of tanks and light vehicles (IFVs, APCs etc) to sometimes just a single tank and then a motley assortment of civilian vehicles (some jury-rigged with armour, most not) to deliver troops to attack points.

NATO is pushing for all members to increase defence spending to 3.5% of GDP within the next four years. Several countries are willing to adhere to that, some are finding it hard, including the UK.

Denmark is giving Ukraine funds to develop its own weaponry, noting that Ukraine's defence industrial base is now more efficient and much faster at operating than most European or American resources. Giving Ukraine extra resources to build weapons rather than trying to important weapons from outside the country may be more efficient and offer a greater return on investment.

[Werthead]

Trump has indicated that further aid to Ukraine may be contingent on the US having (exclusive?) access to Ukraine's rare earth minerals once the war is done. Trump's envoy Kellogg may visit Ukraine as soon as next week to discuss this.

A video has gone viral on Russian Telegram showing Russians and local workers in Luhansk digging mass graves for killed Russian, LPR and DPR soldiers. Apparently they know the identities of some of the soldiers but they're not allowed to report them as KIA, instead only as "missing."

Russian advances SW of Pokrovsk have slowed to a crawl as Ukrainian counter-attacks continue.

Ukrainian forces have confirmed that around Lyman, Russian IFVs, APCs and tanks have almost vanished, with Russia now instead using bikes and civilian vehicles to mount assaults that are instantly defeated.

The Astrakhan gas processing plant, one of Russia's largest, is the latest Russian oil producer to go offline following a major drone strike. Ukrainian strikes on Russian energy infrastructure are proceeding at a clip dwarfing even those of a year ago.

Ukraine has confirmed field-testing a laser interceptor (possibly the variant of the British Sea Dragon we know was supplied to Ukraine last year) near the front. Several incoming Russian projectiles were destroyed. The technology is promising, but not yet ready for scale at a cheap price.

Ukraine has launched a series of drone and artillery strikes on the Dnipro river delta, destroying Russian positions on several islands.

Latvia, the UK and France have all agreed to increase defence spending ASAP, with France boldly suggesting it could double its defence spending.

Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have put themselves forwards alongside Switzerland as possible sites for a Trump-Putin summit.

Ukraine is transitioning to an Army Corps system to hopefully achieve greater efficiency.

The founder of the DPR's "Arbat" battalion has been assassinated in Moscow. Both Ukraine and Kadyrov are suspected.

One Russian military analyst on Russian television suggesting that capturing the entire Donbas region alone at the current pace would still take over three years.

[Mentalist]

We now have multiple videos and Z-head commentary about the orcs being given donkeys instead of trucks to deliver ammo and supply to the frontlines.

I think soon we'll see videos of said animals being droned to death.

Meanwhile, UAF approved several wheeled drones for use in resupply.

UAF seems to have made a small push SE of Sudzha, securing a few settlements along the Psel river. Orcs aren't too happy.

I am somewhat concerned about the orcs establishing bridgeheads W of the Oskil, as that puts them in a position to try to surround Kup'yans'k from both sides of the river.

The intensity of attacks in Donbas seems to be winding down. The orcs have pushed their way into most of Chasiv Yar, with UAF holding onto the low-rise residential neighbourhoods in the SW.

France delivered the first 3 Mirage planes, and Netherlands are sending more F16s.

[Werthead]

Zelensky has said that he is prepared to engage in direct negotiations with Russia if it is "the only way" to end the war. Possibly some more of his recent "showing willing" attitude to keep Trump happy. His strategy seems to be to be appearing to be helpful and cooperative with Trump whilst knowing that Putin won't be, which keeps Trump's ire aimed at Moscow and not Kyiv. Zelensky has also said he's happy to discuss the USA getting involved in rare Earth mineral extraction efforts once the war is over (noting that a large chunk of those resources is under currently-Russian-occupied territory).

The new Ukrainian offensive in Kursk is significant. Apparently a pincer movement developed between Ukrainian forces attacking SE from Sudzha and due north from across the Ukrainian border towards Plekhovo-Borki and Ulanok. Russian forces were not oriented to defend against attacks from two flanks simultaneously and may have to retreat, or risk being cut off. Russian reports are confused but seem to have confirmed that they have lost Kolmakov and Cherkasskaya Konopelka, with Ukrainian forces already on the outskirts of Ulanok. This would represent impressive, though not overwhelming, gains by Ukrainian forces. About 5km in 12 hours.

A secondary assault on the opposite side of the salient has advanced towards Kruglenkoye, though this may be a feint. 

The damage to the Astrakhan gas plant was much more severe than first thought and may be offline for "several months," according to Gazprom (triggering apparent fury in the Kremlin). Astrakhan's sulfur supply was vital for the Russian explosives business (in high demand at the moment).

A fuel storage depot in Novominskaya, Krasnodar Krai, was destroyed by Ukrainian drones. Once again, after the facility caught fire, Russian firefighters complained they had no suppressive foam to put the fires out and had to wait for the fuel to be exhausted before tackling the blaze.

Two Polish destroyers halted and boarded the Zodiak II in the Baltic Sea, on suspicion of attempted cable-cutting.

Norwegian NASAMS III SAM launchers have been deployed at Rzeszow Airport in eastern Poland to enhance the airport's air defence network. This is the primary logistics hub for aid flowing into Ukraine.

The US Navy's HELIOS laser AA weapon has been test-fired successfully. The US is a bit behind the UK in this regard (Sea Dragon has reportedly been tested in the field and a lower-powered land variant may have been tested under combat conditions in Ukraine), but Ukraine will probably be interested in offering the opportunity to test the system in combat.

One Ukrainian analysis that Russian forces are exhausted from years of fighting with no relief and limited rotation, and still no prospect of mobilisation to relieve them or reinforce. The North Korean plan seems to have failed, with a possible reason for the withdrawal of NK forces being that they were a liability, with a high number of friendly fire incidents with Russian forces. Russia still possesses some material advantages but these are continuing to erode. However, the Russians have been successful in building fortifications, stymieing Ukrainian attempts to advance, whilst the wide dispersal of Russian forces forces Ukraine to do the same, as an attack may come anywhere at any time.

[Werthead]

Zelensky seems to have a good handle on talking to Trump. He's bemoaned that Russia is sitting on around 20% of Ukraine's rare earth minerals, worth "hundreds of billions" of dollars. He wants to develop the rest of Ukraine's rare minerals in partnership with the USA, and those are worth trillions. He also has a plan to develop Ukraine into an LNG distribution hub for American gas in Europe at a low cost to the US. Trump seems to have been actively salivating in response.

[Tiste Simeon]

 Werthead, on 07 February 2025 - 07:38 PM, said:

Zelensky seems to have a good handle on talking to Trump. He's bemoaned that Russia is sitting on around 20% of Ukraine's rare earth minerals, worth "hundreds of billions" of dollars. He wants to develop the rest of Ukraine's rare minerals in partnership with the USA, and those are worth trillions. He also has a plan to develop Ukraine into an LNG distribution hub for American gas in Europe at a low cost to the US. Trump seems to have been actively salivating in response.

He knows the trump language and is using it. Good for him.

[Werthead]

That sweet Ukrainian pincer movement in Kursk Oblast has worked better than anticipated. The Russian 11th Airborne, 177th Marines and 9th Infantry Regiment are stuck in a pocket with Ukrainian forces attacking from two sides with - rarely for this war - local manpower superiority and greater armour, artillery and drones. The Russian units will have to withdraw, but if they do, Ukraine could significant increase its holding in Kursk. If they don't they could be destroyed. A third Ukrainian thrust from across the border which is just to the south, even a small force, could simply cut them off and force a major surrender.

The feeling seems to be that the Russians will likely just withdraw and Ukraine will let them go, but this if they are ordered to hold fast this could turn into a major fiasco. The local area commander has been sacked already.

Meanwhile, Ukraine has released footage showing the successful interception of Russian glide bombs. Previously they had been considered unstoppable due to their ballistic arcs, but Ukraine figured out how to adapt low-altitude SAM interceptors to hit them. It's still tough to do, but their reliability seems to be increasing. It also helps Russia seems to have gone through several periods of running low on them. Meanwhile Ukrainian glide bombs seem to remain effective against Russian targets.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 08 February 2025 - 02:13 AM

[Mentalist]

Not gonna be so optimistic about the Kursk counter-strike, it's a tactical advance, primarily due to the fact that a general in charge of a VDV regiment reported he controlled a dam/dike in the sector, while in reality it was in the gery zone. This allowed UAF armor to make a swift surprise assault and drive the orcs back a few km. They might be able to consolidate their position on both sides of the Psel, pushing the orcs a few clicks away from Sudzha. This is unlikely to lead to any drastic changes, unless the orcs throw an inordinate amount of troops very rapidly to try to retake this territory- then we can get a few thousand shredded rapidly, which might cause additional tactical imbalance.

There's some buzz that UAF is also trying to counter-push against the orc salient that's been pushing NW from south of Pokrovsk, trying to encircle the city from the S and W. We'll have to see how this pans out, since this could also be some local UAF commander's boneheaded decision to make himself look good, no matter the cost.

Also, apparently the internet cable from St Petersburg to Kaliningrad in the Baltic has been damaged. oops.

Speaking of Kaliningrad: the Baltic states finally switched their electricity standard from old Soviet to EU frequencies. This makes Kaliningrad quite vulnerable when it comes to power supply, making it feel even more besieged.

[Werthead]

Ukraine has recaptured Kotlyne and is attacking Pischane to the SW of Pokrovsk. There were on the western-most hook of the Russian attempt to encircle Pokrovsk.

Ukraine has reportedly fully captured Cherkasskaya Konopelka and Fanaseevka in Kursk Oblast and is fighting south of Makhnovka to confirm control of the Psel River. I agree, this is a tactical, opportunistic attack, but one that has delivered significant success to the Ukrainian military and inflicted heavy casualties on the Russian forces.

Zelensky has now confirmed that Ukraine carried out an attack on a Russian-North Korean command post in Kursk and apparently hit it with HIMARS during a high-ranking staff meeting. More than 20 of the highest-ranked Russian and North Korean officers in Kursk were present and all killed, with dozens more injured. This plunged the command structure into chaos. They were also exploiting confusion caused by the NK withdrawal from that front and Russian units had not fully worked out where they were supposed to be to replace them.

West of Nikolski, Kursk, Russian and North Korean troops launched a single massed attack on the SW edge of Ukrainian-held territory. The attack was very substantial, lasting 16 hours of continuous fire. However, the Russian and NK forces lacked armour, drone support or jammers. Ukrainian forces, drones and aviation engaged the Russian and NK forces and destroyed them with "extremely heavy" enemy casualties. The scale of the defeat is unclear, but both Russian and NK forces were using ordinary, unarmoured civilian vehicles to try to breach the Ukrainian lines. Most of these vehicles were destroyed hundreds of metres before they reached Ukrainian positions. This also confirms the return to action of NK troops on the front.

Russian media reporting that they have almost "run out of" NK troops but a "fresh batch" should arrive next month.

Ukraine has continued a moderate counter-offensive against Toretsk, launching a deep-penetration raid through the town (Russia captured most of the town some weeks ago) that threw Russian forces into confusion. Russia had misjudged the Ukrainian positions, so two Su-25s sent to support troops came under MANPAD fire; one of the Su-25s was shot down and the other forced to retreat. The Mi-8 helicopter sent to retrieve the pilot came under sustained fire and EW attack and was damaged before retreating, possibly leaving several crewmembers on the ground. The fate of the Su-25 pilot remains unclear.

A Russian armoured push on Vysnheve, on the Pokrovsk front, has been defeated by the 3rd Assault Brigade.

A Russian tank in Selydove was apparently "spooked" by a mistaken drone sighting, with the driver turning the tank around, driving over and crushing a civilian vehicle being driven by Russian troops with unconfirmed casualties, and haphazardly drove off (I've seen confused reporting that 200 Russians were killed, but though the transport situation remains critical, even the Russians can't fit 200 soldiers in a four-door car; "200" is a common Russian code-number for KIA). This was just after a large drone attack on the HQ of the Russian 35th Brigade, located nearby.

Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have disconnected from the Russian power grid in favour of interconnects with the European grid via Poland and undersea power cables. The move leaves Kaliningrad able to be cut off from the Russian power grid with ease. In the even of war, the exclave could simply have its entire power supply shut off almost immediately.

Ukraine plans to increase its testing of laser AA systems on the front, believing that Shahed drones are particularly susceptible due to inferior armour.

Additional economic analysis: in recent months India and Turkey have decreased their purchase of Russian cole by almost 40%. China has decreased its import by 7% in raw amounts but 25% in terms of money. Currency reserves in Russian banks are at a 16-year low. $52 billion has been taken out of the Russian economy by those Russians fleeing abroad. Business has removed a further $44 billion. Production of fertilizer machinery in Russia has decreased by 61% in a year. Goldman Sachs has completed its full withdrawal from the Russian market, whilst ING (the largest Dutch bank) is close to completing the process. Turkish banks have completed the process of blocking third-party Turkish payment cards, which Russians had been stockpiling to get around sanctions. Russia has also been pushing the idea of a "BRICS currency" but has failed to convince the other countries of the value of doing so. Massive lay-offs are also underway in the coal industry in Kemerovo. Russia has also moved some 30% of its printing and publishing business to China, as the industry can no longer refresh old equipment due to sanctions.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 08 February 2025 - 10:54 PM