[Garak]

Because it takes time. And January holds uncertain things.

[Werthead]

Economic chaos could help end the war, because on several times Russian troops have not been paid, they've refused to fight. With the ease of information spreading, they'd be able to see runs on the banks, people panic buying etc.

Economic chaos could also go really bad, really quickly, effectively threatening to collapse the Russian Federation and making some of the oblasts break away, resulting in civil war. That may also encourage an end to the military operations in Ukraine as troops are pulled back to defend the provinces, but it could generate a total chaotic clusterfuck in which Putin panics and decides to do something really stupid.

The problem is that Russia's Central Bank has been very creative in how it's managed to keep things just bobbing along above water, and it just needs to keep that going until late January when the calculus will change again.

[Tsundoku]

Normally I wouldn't post something like this, but it made me sit there and go .... "Huh". Best way I can describe it.

https://www.youtube....rts/8IXIoyfqm6I

[the broken]

Relevant things will happen in January, yes. It doesn't mean nothing else matters, or January = instant defeat.

[Mentalist]

Yeah, what I meant is that systemic erosion is obviously a positive, and Moscow is absolutely screwed in the mid-to-long-term, for many reasons.

But the only meaningful way it can affect the war in the short-term is if all these systemic problems start to actually snowball. And the bigger the country and its economy is, the longer that takes. And at the moment, Ukraine might be running out of time to wait for this deep systemic erosion to hit critical mass.

[Werthead]

Ukraine used ATACMS to destroy an entire S-400 complex. Launchers and radar were all taken out, and five crew were killed. Ukraine has destroyed elements of S-400s plenty of times, but an entire complex in one go is rare. They then hit the Khalino airfield the S-400 was guarding, destroying several buildings and cratering the runway with submunitions. A fuel storage facility in Kaluga was also destroyed by drones.

Interesting information that a number of South African mercenaries and ex-military vets are fighting on Ukraine's side, with a large contingent in the sniper corps.

France has given permission for SCALP missile strikes on Russian territory.

Russian loan interest rates have exceeded 50%. The ruble has lost another 3% of its value in the last two days.

A Russian sapper tried to stop a Russian military vehicle from driving on a mined stretch of road, but the vehicle ran the sapper over, and immediately hit the mine. Unclear if anyone survived from the actual explosion, though several confused witnesses further down the road did survive. Apparently some Russian units have not gotten the memo that minefields can be remotely laid down behind the lines.

New internal Russian polling suggest 52% of the population believes the war should now pause for peace talks, whilst only 36% believe it should continue until further objectives are met.

The US Switchblade drone has seen a dramatic increase in effectiveness recently. The US donated hundreds of Switchblades to Ukraine in 2022 and it was seen as something of a big deal, but they turned out to be pretty useless in the face of Russian EW. But in the last few weeks we're suddenly seeing tons of footage of them taking out entire Russian tanks (including a rare total T-90 hull loss) and armoured vehicles. Unclear if Ukraine has modified them with the same anti-EW and autonomous package we've seen on other drones, or if the US manufacturer (AeroVironment, based in Virginia) has upgraded them themselves.

Kurakhove has been outflanked to the south and Russian units have reached the town centre. Ukrainian defenders are holding on but with the roads to the south cut, the position does not appear tenable. A Ukrainian withdrawal might soon follow. This opens up possible axes of attack to the SW of Pokrovsk and may allow Russia to more easily surround the town rather than having to attack continuously into heavy defences.

France and Poland are pushing heavily the idea of using EU and NATO peacekeepers in Ukraine. These troops would take over border and customs duties on the Polish, Belarusian, Romanian, Hungarian, Slovakian and Moldovan borders, freeing up tens of thousands of Ukrainian troops to transfer to the combat zone. These troops would be under orders to not engage Russian, North Korean or Belarusian forces unless they were fired upon, and any deliberate targeting of them with Russian hardware would invoke a proportionate EU/NATO response.

The plan was proposed a while back but the UK was lukewarm over it, but apparently the deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine has changed the calculus and the plan now has wider support amongst potential contributor countries. At the moment the plan is unlikely to proceed, unless North Korean troops are spotted on Ukrainian soil itself.

[Mentalist]

Georgian opposition has requested its supporters to start setting up tents to block the parliament building. The new parliament is supposed to meet there for the first time tomorrow, and Georgian Dream needs only a few opposition deputees to switch ranks to achieve quorum and formalize their usurpation of power. We'll need to see if they get any takers.

[Werthead]

The ruble is screeching lower, with $1 now equalling 111 rubles*. That's a steep drop from 103 rubles just a couple of days ago.

The ruble is also starting to crash against the yuan, dropping to 1 yuan = 15.84 rubles.

The insider word from Russia is that the Kremlin has approved an interest rate rise to 23% (from 21%) in December, but the bank is pushing back hard, saying it needs to hike up rates much more sharply yesterday to avoid an inflation explosion.

Gazprom shares have just sunk below $1 per share, a historic low. Samolet Group PJSC is going down hard as well, 6% drop in the last day.

The interdicted Chinese ship Yi Peng 3 currently has multiple Swedish, Danish and now German warships surrounding it, despite it having been stopped several days ago on suspicions of damaging the Baltic cables. Unclear what's going on there. 5 NATO AWACS aircraft are monitoring Kaliningrad carefully. One rumour that Denmark and China are in discussions allowing the ship to be released to Kaliningrad, but no sign of Russian involvement in discussions. Sweden wants the ship to dock in a Swedish port so they can examine its role in the damaged cables, but that's unlikely to fly with Beijing.

Syrian opposition forces have launched a sweeping offensive towards Aleppo, destroying multiple Syrian government and Russian forces. Russian position outside Aleppo are under heavy attack. Twenty Syrian villages have declared for the opposition and their forces have been reported less than 5 miles from Aleppo city. The 46th Syrian Regiment has either fled or surrendered, and its main base has fallen.

To make that a bit more complicated, some of the Syrian opposition fighters seem to be former or not-so-former al-Qaeda-aligned elements, so hold fire on the popping of champagne corks for a bit.

Cyprus has revoked the joint-citizenship of 77 Russians, including multiple oligarchs. A widespread belief in Russia that Cyprus is going to formally apply to join NATO. Unclear if that's a realistic goer.

Russia is apparently considering recruiting from the Taliban (!) to support the war in Ukraine. Apparently an Afghan government official said that, of course, Russians would be welcome to join the Taliban armed forces (!).

Slovakia's Prime Minister Fico will attend the May 9 Parade in Moscow, which is certainly something.

The Russians have begun attacking Chasiv Yar directly, with strong mechanised assaults into the eastern parts of the settlement. So far, Ukrainian lines are holding. Possibly a new Ukrainian tactic of using artillery-launched mines to saturate the field mid-advance, so Russian vehicles following the tracks of the vehicles in front (thus clearing mines in a rather direct manner) can still be destroyed by them. Previously re-mining was carried out between pushes or overnight.

Unconfirmed reports that Russian forces have pulled back from Kupyansk following an assault that went badly wrong, allowing Ukraine to reoccupy some positions they had withdrawn from several days ago. More information on that required.

Ukraine has deployed a new anti-drone system called Hitchhiker, a sensor which can spot incoming drones, identify them and automatically direct the most appropriate AA response all within milliseconds.

The promised Ukrainian delegation has arrived in Seoul for talks with South Korean counterparts on the deployment of NK troops to Kursk.

630 Ukrainian prisoners are awaiting return to Ukraine in return for the same number of Russian soldiers.

Washington has urged Kyiv to reduce the mobilisation age to 18. Kyiv is refusing, apparently citing the brigades it currently has that are ready to go, but lack equipment. Creating dozens of new brigades with younger troops is pointless if they cannot be equipped either.

*Apparently that was 7 hours ago. It's now 113 rubles.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 27 November 2024 - 11:05 PM

[Werthead]

A bit more information on Kupyansk. Russian forces were close to reaching the town but were suffering serious manpower shortages, and they only had a single axis of attack into the north-west of the town (the expecting encirclement thrust from way to the south has held up by fierce Ukrainian resistance, and may itself be in danger of reversal). Russian command ordered them to press the attack over local objections they did not have enough troops or artillery ammunition. The attack ran into the usual problems of expending large amounts of lives and material for incremental gains of yards at a time, but the Russians couldn't sustain it this time. The Ukrainians counter-attacked and drove the Russians back, and then the local commanders said screw it and withdrew their entire line back to more defensible positions more than five miles away, effectively ceding the front.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 28 November 2024 - 12:34 AM

[Werthead]

The rebels/opposition in Syria have cut the Aleppo-Damascus road, making resupply and communications with Russian and Syrian government forces in and around Aleppo more difficult. Some chatter that both Ukrainian and Turkish intelligence may be helping the rebels, which would not be the first time they were involved. Simultaneously, the United States has been engaging Syrian government-backed forces which have been trying to attack US military bases in the region. Some chatter that the timing has been coordinated for maximum effect, which may or may not be true.

Russian economic analysis: the ruble staged a moderate comeback overnight dropping back from just under 115 rules to the dollar to 108. That's still not great, and worse than the start of this week, but it's avoided the freefall that some were fearing. Russian prices are showing high increases for butter and potatoes, but buckwheat has come down slightly; buckwheat is used by some economists as the measure of what's going on in the Russian economy (no, seriously), so whilst buckwheat prices are holding steady or even dropping, the economy is not quite going into meltdown. There's also been newer, saner projections that unofficial Russian inflation is around 20-25%, not the 70% some people suggested a few months back, but still far above the official figure of 8%.

However, the economic outlook looks dodgy, and some radical (by their standards) ideas have been floated, including drafting Russian women for the industrial workforce. Oddly, despite the major role played by Russian and Soviet women in industry and even front-line combat in WWII, late and post-Soviet ideology pushed the idea that Russian women should not be active in the military or heavy industry. Russia went from the most progressive country in WWII in allowing women to work and fight to one of the most regressive recently. There is now a growing economic call to get economically inactive Russian women working as housewives into the workforce. Putin is resisting this, as it's incompatible with his demand that Russian women start pumping out babies ASAP.

One of the biggest problems Russia has is full employment: Russian workers are in factories pumping out arms and supporting equipment. If Russia was to mobilise, as well as the political discontent it would trigger, it would also mean pulling hundreds of thousands of workers out of factories, meaning military supply output would drop, which Russia cannot afford to drop. Russia may look at importing more foreign workers to release Russian workers to the frontline, but their experiments with this so far (African workers building drones, for example) have not been overwhelmingly favourable.

The manpower situation is serious enough that Elvira Nabiullina, head of the Central Bank, said it was now the biggest problem facing the Russian economy. Reading between the lines, she seems to be saying that although Russia has some road left to run in the war, the end of that road is now looming into sight and there's no way to avoid it without making some very difficult decisions that will be damaging policially, economically or militarily (or all three).

[Mentalist]

Shit seems to be heating up in Tbilisi, as Georgian Dream is ignoring any attempts at compromise, and trying to incite the opposing population to a violent confrontation.

CentroBank is going to do the one thing they can, which is to increase interest rates again in December. The ruble plunge was really a combination of 3 things
1) seasonal demand for imported goods as New Year gifts
2) news about reduction in oil production as part of OPEC+ commitment
3) sanctions against Gazprombank making it difficult to bring USD and EUR into the country

All these things spike up forex demand. So anything that relies on imports in its production cycle goes up.


Buckwheat is a grain staple, and one of the ones that last the longest. It's typically produced in the in the mainland (the ones we've had as imported here pre-war was unually from Karelia or Leningrad Oblast'. These days we buy the one made in Poland)

So, along with salt, sugar and matches, buckwheat is considered an "emergency ration component" and a "first demand product" when it comes to any shortages.

Despite having that reputation, potatoes are a much more common staple food. And their price increased by at least 30 percent this year, so the inflation problem is very real, especially for the poorest stratas. Which in turn pushes them to sign on with the MoD for those sign-on bonuses

[Werthead]

Aleppo has just fallen to the opposition forces in Syria. The Syrian government forces fled the city, ignoring orders by Assad's brother to stand and fight. Iranian forces have also withdrawn, apparently after a Republican Guard brigadier-general was killed in an Israeli airstrike. Some Russians have been killed, but unclear how many, and their disposition. They're certainly not going to fight if the Syrians have left. They may try to organise a withdrawal to the Damascus area or to their main base on the coast at Tarsus. Turkish-backed militia have joined the fight, helping secure Aleppo city centre and pushing further south, capturing Saraqib and Anqarati and now seem to be aiming for an assault on Abu Adh Dhuhur and the airbase there, which would be a significant victory. To inspire his troops, Assad has, er, left the country for Moscow, where he's asking Putin for help. Putin may redirect him to Pyongyang as I don't think Russia has much spare capacity to deal with that situation at the moment. I'm also certain Putin will not be impressed that the hard-fought, four-year battle for Aleppo which Russia expended huge amounts of money and munitions (and at least a small number of lives) to win for Assad, has been reversed in literally three days.

If the rebels can now get their stuff together, they could stage further advances towards Homs and Tartus. Damascus, over 200 miles to the south of Aleppo, would be a pretty big reach across hostile terrain, but who the hell knows at this moment. Turkish backing will be crucial; Turkey has just issued a warning to Russia that any further aerial attacks on Idlib may be answered by the Turkish airforce.

[Werthead]

Russian Telegram is in complete meltdown over Aleppo falling. Russia spent four years bombarding Aleppo, expending vast amounts of munitions (and therefore ammo), and a few lives, to help the Syrians take it. Watching the Syrian government forces flee without giving battle is not going down well.

Back in Ukraine, Zelensky has proposed a diplomatic end to the war in Ukraine which would entail land-swaps based on each other's occupied territory, and then a moratorium on territorial questions as long as Ukraine is able to join NATO. So there could be some kind of fudge to allow Russia to keep some (or even most) of its captured land as long as the rest is able to join NATO. Ostensibly that would be unacceptable to Putin, but it would allow him to end the war with a partial win. I suspect he'll reject it out of hand though. Zelensky's thinking is that he can negotiate the return of additional territory later on from Russia in return for the end of sanctions. Hmm.

Russian commanders have reinforced the ban on personal vehicles being used to get to the front. This has resulted in chaos as Russian soldiers on leave can't get away from the warzone without walking for dozens of miles. Personal vehicles have also been used by enterprising logistics forces to move weapons, ammo and drones to units on the front. This was necessary due to a lack of trucks. So the entire logistics resupply for the entire front in Ukraine has descended into chaos. The commanders enforcing the ban may have to back down, but they have been reporting for months of Russian soldiers drunk-driving and crashing into one another, buildings, holding impromptu races to relieve the tension etc. So...that's a thing.

Massive explosion in Vitino, Crimea, unconfirmed reports of another entire S-400 complex loss. That'd be two in a week. Not cheap.

The oil refinery in Kamensky, Rostov has been hit and is burning. This refinery is important as it was close to the front lines, allowing for relatively rapid resupply of Russian units. Obviously, that also makes it a highly notable target (interesting it hadn't been hit in force before).

Putin is in Kazakhstan (so it's unclear why Assad is in Moscow right now, but anyway) and said that Kazakhstan is "basically a Russian-speaking country," so President Toayev laughed and starting talking in Kazakh, leaving Putin looking confused.

The USA and Japan have concluded a new defence procurement agreement to help defend Japan's Nansei Islands, off its north coast near Russian territory.

Boris Johnson has been talking to Trump about possible endgames to the war, including Ukraine as part of NATO.

Ukraine has signed a number of amnesty deals to allow 6,000 deserters to return to service without further punishment.

The plan to put European boots on the ground in Ukraine is growing, with French MPs proposing that France leads the way alongside the UK, Poland, the Baltic States and the Scandinavian countries. However, they propose only military instructors are sent at this stage to help train Ukrainian forces in Ukraine.

The Ukrainian battalion being trained in France will have an armoured component, consisting of Polish-donated, German-serviced Leopards.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 29 November 2024 - 10:27 PM

[the broken]

Huh. Aleppo? Wasn't expecting that.

[Werthead]

The entire NW and now west of Syria seems to be collapsing. Syrian government forces have withdrawn from everything north of Homs, and in the west are only holding Lataika and Tarsus.

The Syrian military seems to be consolidating on the Russian-held areas, but Russia does not seem to be in the mood to bail out the Syrians who will not stand and fight themselves. If they won't fight for Homs, will they fight for Damascus, just a few hours to the south? Russia's already lost two airbases and its main naval base at Tarsus is now in the firing line.

Iran has been in "emergency" consultations with Turkey but I doubt Erdogan will be in a mood to listen. This is a massive win for him.

ETA There's now fighting in Inkhil, which is south of Damascus near the Jordanian border. Unconfirmed reports Assad has returned to Damascus.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 30 November 2024 - 05:24 PM

[Mentalist]

Over 100 people were arrested in Tbilisi after a full night of clashes. The trick is, the President is one of those inciting the protests, and she has the power to pardon them all. Georgian Dream wants to elect their own Pres in December, though, and it'll be a head of a GD puppet party that's even more openly pro-Moscow.

There will likely be even more protesters out tonight, because young Georgians aren't too keen to have their futures thrown away by the GD.
About 200 diplomats have spoken out against the government's decision. They are basically paralyzing Georgia's MFA. Ex- MoD called on the army to join the protests, but no real action there yet.



Should the orcs' tubs get ejected from Tartus, that'd be an astounding win for the world. But I'm not holding my breath, Iran seems to be rushing in their Iraqi proxies to relieve the situation, and the Kurds seemm to be trying to flank the rebel offensive, essentially supporting Assad while expanding their own territory a bit. Checking the (horribly laggy) liveuamap update, it looks like the rebels are pushing S towards Homs. If they can take that, then Damascus will be cut off from the orc bases on the coast, meaning Moscow won't really be able to supply him effectively. Which would be neat.

It's certainly exciting to imagine Putler's entire international influence network unraveling in mere days or weeks, but if this war's taught us anything, it's to keep expectations firmly tempered

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 30 November 2024 - 07:54 PM

[Werthead]

Syrian opposition forces have reached Homs already. The Druze towns along the Jordanian and Israeli borders are apparently joining the opposition. Russian civilian contractors are already leaving as fast as they can.

Apparently conflicting orders have been given by Syrian military command, with the President's office and General Hussam Luqa giving contradictory orders on whether to fight or stand down. Luqa may have also been in communication with some of the opposition groups about what a post-conflict Syria will look like. The rebels are clear: Assad has to leave or be arrested. They will not accept a continuation of him in power. If he goes, maybe they can cut a national unity governance deal with the military, but the Assad regime has to crash and burn.

To reinforce how weird this is getting, an Iranian F-14 Tomcat attempted to join Russian bombardment of the rebel-held areas, but was chased off by a Turkish F-4 Phantom. Technically the F-14 (the direct replacement for the F-4) is superior, but Iran decided getting into a direct shooting match with Turkey was a really bad idea. More Turkish aircraft are now patrolling the skies and Turkey is telling Russia in no uncertain terms to stop its air attacks.

Russia's situation appears doubtful. Losing the Tartus naval base, their only Mediterranean port, would be a huge strategic loss, but I doubt a post-Assad Syria ruled by the opposition factions will tolerate a Russian military presence. The smart Russian play would be to fold and leave, so based on the last three years I suspect they're not going to do that.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 30 November 2024 - 08:03 PM, said:

Syrian opposition forces have reached Homs already. The Druze towns along the Jordanian and Israeli borders are apparently joining the opposition. Russian civilian contractors are already leaving as fast as they can.

Apparently conflicting orders have been given by Syrian military command, with the President's office and General Hussam Luqa giving contradictory orders on whether to fight or stand down. Luqa may have also been in communication with some of the opposition groups about what a post-conflict Syria will look like. The rebels are clear: Assad has to leave or be arrested. They will not accept a continuation of him in power. If he goes, maybe they can cut a national unity governance deal with the military, but the Assad regime has to crash and burn.

To reinforce how weird this is getting, an Iranian F-14 Tomcat attempted to join Russian bombardment of the rebel-held areas, but was chased off by a Turkish F-4 Phantom. Technically the F-14 (the direct replacement for the F-4) is superior, but Iran decided getting into a direct shooting match with Turkey was a really bad idea. More Turkish aircraft are now patrolling the skies and Turkey is telling Russia in no uncertain terms to stop its air attacks.

Russia's situation appears doubtful. Losing the Tartus naval base, their only Mediterranean port, would be a huge strategic loss, but I doubt a post-Assad Syria ruled by the opposition factions will tolerate a Russian military presence. The smart Russian play would be to fold and leave, so based on the last three years I suspect they're not going to do that.

Leaving will mean they have to bring their ships back to the Baltic Sea (b/c no warshiops will be allowed thru the Bosphorus while the war is ongoing).

That will lead to Wagner's African Corps in Lybia, CAR and the Sahel will end up effectively stranded. Which would be quite nice.

[Werthead]

The protests in Georgia have become much larger and more serious with protestors engaging police with homemade firework cannons. The police are running low on pepper spray for their water cannons. The Georgian President has given her full backing to the protestors and the some MoD veterans are urging the army to intervene on behalf of the protestors.

The Russian commander in Syria has been relieved. Not entirely sure that's fair as his troops are, very reasonably, refusing to fight if the Syrian troops they've been deployed alongside are refusing to fight and in fact just fleeing.

Syrian army units are reported to have finally engaged the rebels in Hama, but the town of Ar Rastan has been captured behind them, meaning there is no contiguous line of battle or supply, unless Syrian forces can retake Ar Rastan. They still have those opposition forces in the north of Homs itself. The situation is confused as in some places there are isolated opposition forces advancing, there may be "sleeper" cells of opposition fighters who've infiltrated behind the lines possibly months ago, and in some cases some town seem to have spontaneously rising in rebellion without any opposition forces being present. The situation is confused.

1,740 Russian casualties reported in Ukraine in the last 24 hours, almost a new record, whilst Ukraine has destroyed three radar systems in Crimea.

[Mentalist]

Until the protesters can break into, and actually seize control over the parliament building in Tbilisi, the situation is going to be a stalemate. The cops wait until early morning (5-6 AM) when the majority of the protesters leave, and then attack and disperse the remainder.

Until there's a strong committed core that is organized and entrenched enough to establish a constant presence on the street, the regime doesn't really have that much to worry about. Unless the unrest and strikes staert spreading into government agencies.

Hopefully the rebels can keep the momentum going until they reach Homs. We really need Putler distracted everywhere right now

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 01 December 2024 - 12:44 AM