[Werthead]

Moldova has voted in favour of further EU integration and it looks like Maya Sandu has been re-elected with a 5+ point lead (potentially ending around 9 points, which would be pretty decisive). Interesting to see if Russia can pull any shit there, and if the EU (and Romania in particular) will tolerate that happening if so.

The Kiel Institute has made the argument in Germany that a Russian victory over Ukraine would cost Germany around 1-2% extra in GDP expenditure to deal with renewed waves of refugees and dramatically increased defence spending. This is significantly more than doubling Ukrainian military and economic aid or even more, and vastly more than holding assistance at current levels. To some degree, the true is of other European countries, especially Romania, Slovakia and Poland.

Russian Railways has announced that it has decommissioned 100,000 freight cars. It is using them to cannibalise for parts to keep the rest going. That's around 7-8% of the total, but there's some evidence that a substantial number on top of that are out for the count. Russian Railways is also reporting a major problem with employees, many of whom have gone (willingly or not) to Ukraine.

Some reports that a Russian - North Korean unit may have come under attack from Ukrainian forces. A captured Russian soldier reported that the North Koreans could not distinguish between the Ukrainian and Russian soldiers and killed two Russian troops, forcing them to surrender rather than risk further friendly fire.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 05 November 2024 - 11:41 PM

[Werthead]

Ukraine is taking the pragmatic view that they'll see how the new administration settles in in January. For what it's worth, Russia has said it sees no benefit from having Trump in the White House and a great deal of uncertainty, so they are not anticipating a change in conditions.

We also know that the Russians despise the leaked "Trump Deal" from a few months back and would not cooperate with it, so the question is if the stick in the deal (a long-term lend lease agreement for Ukraine) was a real thing or a bluff.

Ukraine also seems to be taking the view of showing its inventiveness and capabilities in the meantime. Last night it launched a surprisingly large-scale attack on the Russian Caspian Sea Fleet, hitting two missile destroyers and possibly disabling one of them. This involved the coordination of a large number of drones operating at distances of well over 1,000km from Ukrainian soil.

[Cause]

Ukraine should be Jubilant. The war ends Jan 21st.

I hope Trump gets asked every 24 hours starting with Jan 21st why his peace plan hasn’t taken effect yet.

[Mentalist]

Zelensky is going to be looking for the "the West made us stop fighting" narrative in the coming weeks and months as a means to cushion criticism and shift the blame away from the systemic problems within the UA military and government leadership.

Unless Putler doesn't do smth incredibly stupid, he is likely to sell a ceasefire idea to Trump & co. Which would in turn trigger a flood of emigration from UA once the borders are open, and bring all the social pressure to the fore, likely resulting in a huge political crisis and further instability. And without any "real" security guarantees, this will allow Putler to ramp up pressure and expect to make further gains.

It is unclear to what extent EU heads recognize the threat, and to what extent they still think a ceasefire could turn the clock back to "business as usual". But Needless to say, I'm not feeling optimistic

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 06 November 2024 - 03:10 PM

[Werthead]

There are multiple ways this can pan out, some very bad for Ukraine, some merely kinda bad for Ukraine, some maybe okay for Ukraine and maybe even one that's pretty good for Ukraine (the US backing it to the hilt). The last one is basically if Russia refuses to come to the table at all or if it doesn't pass the test that even Trump would demand as a lowest common denominator.

We might get a clue to that when Trump starts naming his Secretary of Defence and Secretary of State. All of the names being floated have been somewhat supportive of Ukraine (ranging from very to lukewarm-but-present), and some have been pretty supportive but taking clever stances to also look supportive of Trump (i.e. supporting sending money but only if it's closely audited to avoid corruption and 100% of the money is spent in the US itself, which isn't far off the case). The risk comes if Trump puts in the most milquetoast picks.

Vance's crappy attitude to Ukraine is irrelevant, since that's not the VP's area, unless Trump were to keel over in the near future, which is not a nontrivial possibility.

It is of course insane for Ukraine to be in this position, given the successes it's had in multiple areas recently, despite the slow attritional loss of territory in Donbas. If North Korea really steps up its commitment, it might force South Korea to step into the void left behind by the USA even if Trump disapproves, which is useful because it's arguably the only western (or western-adjacent) country that can.

Russian Telegram has just blown up with angry reports over a massive Russian assault on Bilohorivka on the Siversk front on November 2nd. The commander of the 123rd Brigade of the 2nd Corps of the Luhansk People's Republic military, sent the 1st, 2nd and 3rd motorized rifle battalions and the 4th tank battalion in a frontal assault without artillery, air or drone support.

The Ukrainians responded with massive artillery and drone assaults which inflicted huge casualties even before they entered direct fire range. In the resulting melee, only some of the Russian troops were able to withdraw. Many were forced to take cover and have been pinned down for five days with little prospect of the Russians being able to extricate them. The death toll is estimated in the dozens at least, with maybe hundreds wounded and dozens of vehicles destroyed. The scale of this defeat has not been fully documented yet.

The same Telegram channels are now calling for a wholesale rethink of Russian offensive doctrine, saying they need to switch to a system that preserves Russian lives because they simply cannot afford to keep throwing them away at this rate.

Media are now analysing Ukrainian opinions on Trump's victory and they are seeing some positivity, though for varying reasons (copium being one, presumably). One is that people think the war might have to end soon to preserve any chance of Ukraine retaining most of its pre-invasion borders. Losing the two Donbas republics and possibly regaining the other two (as hinted in Trump's leaked plans) in a deal in the New Year is being seen as maybe a much better outcome than Ukraine can realistically achieve on the battlefield alone. Some are even saying that losing the four oblasts but redrawing the map to retain Kherson city, Dnipro city etc (effectively along the current front lines, maybe with some swaps for a withdrawal from Kursk) might be a better result than might be achieved on the battlefield at this rate, though that's much more contentious (and I'd say politically unacceptable, and would require Zelensky's resignation, and they cannot accept NATO neutrality as well in that case). Ukrainians in general seem annoyed with Biden, seeing him as dithering over every decision and pointing out that being told "no" immediately on certain things would have allowed them to have made other plans rather than holding out for months that they might happen; they seem to have realised this in the last year or so, hence them asking for permission to use long range weapons and, whilst waiting for Biden to make his mind up, accelerating their own internal ballistic and cruise missile programmes, but it was a major problem earlier in the conflict.

As Garry Kasparov has put it, Ukrainians might prefer it for "Trump to stab them in the front rather than Biden stab them in the back."

Interestingly, Trump has taken a telephone call in the last hour from Zelensky and accepted his congratulations. Putin has so far ruled out calling Trump.

The Lithuanian defence minister has bigged up Trump as well, pointing out that the Battle of Khasham, when US forces engaged and annihilated a Russian Wagner unit in Syria, happened on his watch, and Trump was better at setting out and enforcing red lines than Biden, who has vacillated too much. Probably just trying to flatter Trump into not immediately doing something stupid on taking office.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 06 November 2024 - 11:25 PM

[Werthead]

Apparently there is "serious concern" in the Kremlin over Trump's plans to turn the taps to maximum and flood the markets with oil in a bid to halve gas prices, as this would obliterate Russia's primary income stream in very short order, Iran's as well.

Economists are sceptical on whether it's even possible, but it might well be, and even the threat is making the market take notice. Russia might also find it difficult to convince OPEC to drop production to compensate, especially if countries like Saudi Arabia are looking to take advantage of Trump to get some good deals for themselves in.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 07 November 2024 - 11:44 PM

[Briar King]

Is it accurate that N Korean forces are now engaging Ukraine inside captured territory in Russia proper?

[Lady Bliss]

All of the news cycles are reporting that NK is now involved which could potentially draw SK, Japan, and of course US in. We are literally on the brink of WW3, but I doubt anyone is stupid enough to use nukes other than posturing.

[Lady Bliss]

I should add that we are in the same Cold War with our power grids because they are all so outdated from what I learned when I took CISSP which was pretty doom and gloom all around.

[Briar King]

We ve been on the path to the brink since the world got acquainted with Joe Bidens bald spot in August 2021. I don’t believe anyone is dumb enough to use a nuke either though. Weird world that we just now shrug off his threats to use them.

[Macros]

We've been on this path since Putin took Crimea in 2014 and no-one did a damn thing.
This has nothing to do with Biden and everything to with Russia and everyone who ever placated their tyrant ruler.

[Briar King]

And there was Georgia before that but you’d have an impossible time convincing me that he would have even pulled the trigger to take it all had that 2 week bungle the entire world watched had not happened.

[Macros]

Fair enough you say impossible time I won't bother trying

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Werthead, on 07 November 2024 - 11:44 PM, said:

Apparently there is "serious concern" in the Kremlin over Trump's plans to turn the taps to maximum and flood the markets with oil in a bid to halve gas prices, as this would obliterate Russia's primary income stream in very short order, Iran's as well.

Economists are sceptical on whether it's even possible, but it might well be, and even the threat is making the market take notice. Russia might also find it difficult to convince OPEC to drop production to compensate, especially if countries like Saudi Arabia are looking to take advantage of Trump to get some good deals for themselves in.

US oil companies and their investors (which to varying extents include the vast majority of investors, especially since they're included in ETFs that track the S&P500 and the Nasdaq Composite---though there are fossil fuel free versions like my old favorite SPYX, the S&P500 minus fossil fuels) are almost certainly going to talk Trump out of it. And now that he's won reelection Trump would have little to gain from it... at least until he tries to retain power at the end of his four years (if he lives that long).

[Mentalist]

Yeah, the American oil doesn't belong to Trump. It belongs to the oil tychoons. So the idea that they would lower their profit margins for a geopolitical win is sorta laughable- unless they see it as a chance to grab a big slice of the global market before ratcheting up the prices again. Which isn't something I see readily happen, b/c I don't think the logistics are really there for getting all this mythical cheap oul to the global markets that'd buy it over Muscovite one.

[Werthead]

Oh, Trump's not talking about it for geopolitical reasons, but internal ones. He either aims to say screw it to term limits and go for a third run in 2028 and get his pet Supreme Court to come up with whatever reason he deems for it, or he plans to set up a dynasty and have some like-minded cretin inherit power after him, by fair means or foul (personally I think it's a stretch Trump reaches 2028, at least with his marbles fully intact, his mental degradation since 2020, let alone 2016, is stark).

He knows that will be controversial, but he believes that the overwhelming majority of the American public can be bought off by cheap prices at the pumps (amongst other things). Halving current gas prices will be a massive, palpable and measurable win for him even if he achieves bugger all else. And the American oil billionaires may fancy themselves oligarchs-in-waiting, but they haven't learned the lesson from Russia that "oligarch" means "the President's bitches," yet.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 08 November 2024 - 08:18 PM

[Lady Bliss]

Well the thing is that none of his proposals will actually be fruitful for the middle class. They are stupid but they will see through it in a couple of years IMO. This is all about short term gains and him pardoning himself. Yes it will probably have effects in the lines for Eastern Europe though.

[Werthead]

Russian state television broadcasting nude pictures of Melania to "welcome Trump back to the White House" is an interesting move.

[Abyss]

Mentalist, on 08 November 2024 - 03:32 PM, said:

Yeah, the American oil doesn't belong to Trump. It belongs to the oil tychoons. So the idea that they would lower their profit margins for a geopolitical win...

Instead of making billion and billions in the short term, they make billions in the short term and set the stage for billions and billions and billions in the longer term. They'd go for it.

Werthead, on 08 November 2024 - 08:17 PM, said:

... he believes that the overwhelming majority of the American public can be bought off by cheap prices at the pumps...

I say this with all sincerity... they absolutely can.

[Lady Bliss]

Abyss, on 13 November 2024 - 02:37 PM, said:

Mentalist, on 08 November 2024 - 03:32 PM, said:

Yeah, the American oil doesn't belong to Trump. It belongs to the oil tychoons. So the idea that they would lower their profit margins for a geopolitical win...

Instead of making billion and billions in the short term, they make billions in the short term and set the stage for billions and billions and billions in the longer term. They'd go for it.

Werthead, on 08 November 2024 - 08:17 PM, said:

... he believes that the overwhelming majority of the American public can be bought off by cheap prices at the pumps...

I say this with all sincerity... they absolutely can.

In Texas now it is just over 2 bucks. Why are they complaining? Oh wait, fake news has said they should. The ideas on the economy are so misleading.