[the broken]

Navalny's gone.

[Mentalist]

the broken, on 16 February 2024 - 01:29 PM, said:

Navalny's gone.

RIP and condolences to his family.

Wonder why now, of all times.

[HoosierDaddy]

What is it being used as a distraction from? The nukes in space thing?

The pictures I saw of him recently didn't look like he was gravely ill, but I'm very not up to date on it.

[Lady Bliss]

I think it could be as simple as reminding people what will happen if anyone challenges him or his policies.

[Werthead]

Thousands of people on the streets of multiple Russian cities to commemorate Navalny.

The police in most cities are just letting them get on with it and only stepping in to keep crowds moving etc. But some are being more heavy-handed, particularly in St. Petersburg, leading to some jostling and shoving and possible arrests.

I would say a dangerous moment for the regime. Probably quite low in danger, but something that could snowball if they don't handle it correctly.

Also a lot of grumbling on Telegram about the situation and widespread comments along the lines of "Girkin's next."

Germany has made a ten-year commitment to providing help and support for Ukraine, with an initial €7 billion investment in Ukraine's economy

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 16 February 2024 - 07:37 PM, said:

Thousands of people on the streets of multiple Russian cities to commemorate Navalny.

The police in most cities are just letting them get on with it and only stepping in to keep crowds moving etc. But some are being more heavy-handed, particularly in St. Petersburg, leading to some jostling and shoving and possible arrests.

I would say a dangerous moment for the regime. Probably quite low in danger, but something that could snowball if they don't handle it correctly.

Also a lot of grumbling on Telegram about the situation and widespread comments along the lines of "Girkin's next."

Germany has made a ten-year commitment to providing help and support for Ukraine, with an initial €7 billion investment in Ukraine's economy

The regime has been under-estimating the amount of protest moods being endorsed via the formalistic election process. First there was the groundswell for Duntsova (a literal nobody); then Nadezhdin (former colleague of Putler's internal policy chief, Kirienko, and head of a no-name political party used as a "token liberal for all the propaganda heads to dunk on on TV) ended up collecting hundreds of thousands of endorsements with the most milquetoast anti-war message imaginable;

Having cut it down to 3 puppet candidates, the Admin is still cagey that the opposition talking heads (including Navalny) could endorse one of the also-rans as a target for protest voting, upsetting the typical "Putler has overwhelming majority, KPRF is naturally long distant second" narrative, maybe even leading to Putler not getting majority in Round 1, which would be unheard of.

Killing Navalny is obviously aimed at spitting his support base, to see whether FBK and its followers will become more open to working with other opposition groups, or if they'll become even more entrenched in their standoffishness. I dunno if FBK is gonna try to make his widow the new face of the movement, or if it'll be someone else from the FBK executive.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

New York Times:

Quote

Avdiivka [...] Falls to Russians

"Avdiivka is a very important strong point in the Ukrainian system of defense," because it protects Pokrovsk, about 30 miles to the northwest, a logistical hub for the Ukrainian Army [...]


"Taking control of Avdiivka might create an opening for Russia," [...]


"There was zero visibility outside. It was just plain survival. A kilometer across the field," [...] "A bunch of blind cats led by a drone. Enemy artillery. The road to Avdiivka is littered with our corpses."


The evacuation vehicle never came for the wounded [...] The commander replied [over the radio] that no vehicle was coming and that they should leave the wounded behind.


"He didn't know he was talking to a wounded man," [...]


[...] Russians had used incendiary munitions to ignite tanks storing hazardous fuel at the coke plant. [...]


[...] The wind sent plumes of toxic black smog over the city and seeping into the plant, which the Ukrainians had long used as a stronghold


[...] his unit was left no time for an orderly exit — neither to [...] lay mines


Avdiivka, Longtime Ukraine Stronghold Ukraine, Falls to Russia - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Wonder if Russia could cause mass casualties by flooding the tunnels with toxic materials (smoke, gas, or liquid... probably not serpents or venomous insects). Israel was has been flooding Hamas tunnels with water, though their desire to rescue the hostages (alive) has probably been holding them back at least a little.

Guess they probably haven't booby-trapped much of the city and probably don't have many troops hiding out in the tunnels under Avdiivka to launch surprise attacks... OTOH I guess claims by soldiers that they didn't have enough time to lay down mines could be an attempt to trick the Russians into a false sense of security, though I doubt they'd take their word for it, so probably not.

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 17 February 2024 - 02:07 PM

[Mentalist]

Azath Vitr (D, on 17 February 2024 - 02:07 PM, said:

New York Times:

Quote

Avdiivka [...] Falls to Russians

"Avdiivka is a very important strong point in the Ukrainian system of defense," because it protects Pokrovsk, about 30 miles to the northwest, a logistical hub for the Ukrainian Army [...]


"Taking control of Avdiivka might create an opening for Russia," [...]


"There was zero visibility outside. It was just plain survival. A kilometer across the field," [...] "A bunch of blind cats led by a drone. Enemy artillery. The road to Avdiivka is littered with our corpses."


The evacuation vehicle never came for the wounded [...] The commander replied [over the radio] that no vehicle was coming and that they should leave the wounded behind.


"He didn't know he was talking to a wounded man," [...]


[...] Russians had used incendiary munitions to ignite tanks storing hazardous fuel at the coke plant. [...]


[...] The wind sent plumes of toxic black smog over the city and seeping into the plant, which the Ukrainians had long used as a stronghold


[...] his unit was left no time for an orderly exit — neither to [...] lay mines


Avdiivka, Longtime Ukraine Stronghold Ukraine, Falls to Russia - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Wonder if Russia could cause mass casualties by flooding the tunnels with toxic materials (smoke, gas, or liquid... probably not serpents or venomous insects). Israel was has been flooding Hamas tunnels with water, though their desire to rescue the hostages (alive) has probably been holding them back at least a little.

Guess they probably haven't booby-trapped much of the city and probably don't have many troops hiding out in the tunnels under Avdiivka to launch surprise attacks... OTOH I guess claims by soldiers that they didn't have enough time to lay down mines could be an attempt to trick the Russians into a false sense of security, though I doubt they'd take their word for it, so probably not.

UAF is critically short on supplies, which is the reason why they had to pull back from these positions in the first place.
This is less of a Bakhmut and more of a Severedonets'k-Lysychans'k situation where overwhelming firepower advantage means eventually even the best fortified positions become untenable, and when encirclement looms, then you need to pull out of the pocket.

If the EU can come up with sufficient ammo in the next few months, the situation may re-stabilize; otherwise, we're likely in for significantly more bad news.

[Werthead]

Some good news today. Denmark is sending its entire artillery and artillery ammunition supply to Ukraine, whilst the Czech Republic has announced it has amassed 800,000 artillery shells, which it will be sending to Ukraine ASAP, if NATO allies can aid with logistics.

Germany's Rheinmetall has also agreed to open artillery shell production lines in Ukraine itself, allowing for much faster resupply, although that's a medium-to-long term project.

It looks like Finland, which maintains a significantly large artillery park and artillery production capabilities because of, well, where it is on the map, is also hugely increasing its artillery ammunition production pipeline and some of this will be earmarked for Ukraine. It won't be millions of shells a year, but it will definitely help.

France is also establishing a drone supply programme to Ukraine, with thousands to tens of thousands of drones expected to be sent to Ukraine this year. France is also training 10,000 more Ukrainian troops and has provided Ukraine with its latest-model AI upgrade package for the Caesar self-propelled gun, which is very popular with Ukrainian gunners for its simplicity and effectiveness. France has indicated it also has a large number of AMX-10 RC light tanks, armoured fighting vehicles and SCALP missiles (aka Storm Shadow) which are due to go out of service in 2024-25 and these are all earmarked for Ukraine.

Canada is discussing sending 83,000 decommissioned CRV7 rockets to Ukraine. These can be fired from helicopters but can be modified for ground-to-ground use and have various warhead options, including a 7.3kg one that can penetrate armoured targets.

At the moment it looks like Russia has expended 47,186 killed and wounded to take Avdiivka, along with 364 tanks, 248 artillery systems, 748 IFVs and five aircraft. This is not a war-winning average, and appears to somewhat exceed the losses at Bakhmut.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 18 February 2024 - 07:02 PM

[Mentalist]

UAF claims to have shot down 4 aircraft in 2 days. Supposedly a roaming Patriot battery is wondering the NE frontline, sniping the patrolling SUs before scooting off.

F-16s are suposed to start showing up in UA in June. That's a delay from the initial "spring" timeline, but considering these aren't likely to be game changers (basically an anti-air boost more than anything), I'm not feeling particularly strongly either way about the news.

Seems the orcs are trying to make pushes SW out of Bakhmut (towards Chasiv Yar), as well as in the S to try to retake Robotyne. The latter appears to have ended with another column blown up, but the former push is ongoing.

Since nitter is dead, I've been spending a lot less time following the news, basically just scanning the news reel on censor.net and UkrPravda. Which is probably better for my sanity, anyhow.

[Azath Vitr (D'ivers]

Quote

The Kremlin has never been richer, thanks to a US partner

Russia [has ...] an unprecedented amount of cash in government coffers, bolstered by a record $37 billion of crude oil sales to India last year, according to new analysis [...]

[...] so-called "shadow fleet" [...]

[...] "[...] adding multiple layers to the shell game of vessels as they try and confuse authorities as to where this oil is coming from and who's buying it at the end of the day."

[...] estimated the US was the biggest buyer of refined products from India made from Russian crude last year

The Kremlin has never been richer – thanks to a US strategic partner | CNN

... and Trump isn't even president Czar yet....

Quote

Norway's Intelligence Service claims that Russia is about to gain the "military upper hand" [...] due to "considerable" support from China, Belarus, Iran, and North Korea. [...]

[...] Russia's $118.5 billion defense budget for 2024 is "unparalleled" compared to budgets of this kind throughout the country's history.

The budget has increased by $48 billion — that's 61 percent — since 2023, and it makes up a third of the government's overall spending [...]

"China is supplying machines, vehicles, electronics and parts, and is helping to develop the Russian arms industry," [...]

[...] a military analyst at the University of Bath [... said] Putin is "sitting pretty,"

Russia's Alliances Are Giving It an Edge, Just As Ukraine's Are Faltering (businessinsider.com)

Here's hoping he falls off the horse, and his saggy pecs aren't enough of a cushion to stop him from breaking his neck....

This post has been edited by Azath Vitr (D'ivers: 20 February 2024 - 02:49 AM

[Mentalist]

A significant chunk of the crude sold to India was sold for rupees. Which are (shocker), non-convertible currency.

So a portion of this declared income is only there on paper, since India doesn't exactly have a lot of stuff it can sell Russia to make those billions of rupees actually useful.

The third of budget spending is a figure that includes both Military and "internal security" spendings.

The actual stats they are reporting indicates a significant slowdown in industrial output and freight volumes in the last quarter. The 2 sectors wiith a spike (that contribute to paper growth of GDP) are "finished metal products" and "construction services". Considering all the shady contracts for digging trenches for "Surovikin line" and the paper-thin "reconstruction of Mariupol" and some other occupied cities, which is a goldmine for corruption (you see, we spent billions rebuilding this high-rise, but then the Ukro-Nazis dropped another HIMARS on it, and it collapsed again, so I guess we'll have to do it again")

The interest rates are still record-high, and they still can't really slow down inflation that comes with printing all those rubles to pay soldiers and factory workers doing triple shifts. The situation is obviously not critical, but it's not pretty.

[Werthead]

Watching the currency reserve burn down like the Towering Inferno is also quite an interesting experience. What happens to the Russian economy when it's all gone? Nobody knows, but few economists seem to want to find out. Russian oil and diesel exports are also down significantly in January and February because several of Russia's largest terminals keep mysteriously exploding.

The Russian economy is not about to collapse tomorrow and is more resilient than you'd expect, but it's also not in a great shape compared to a few years ago (the rouble being worth less than a third of what it was a decade ago is not great going either). There's only so much other countries can do to help. China's help seems to be more about looking good rather than actually doing anything: Chinese replacement parts for Russia's civil aviation sector have so far been fiercely criticised for being subpar, and not helping slow the dangerously escalating rate of in-flight failures.

India is also playing both sides in this: appearing to be helpful to Russia whilst basically strip-mining its deals for everything it can get out of it. It's then converting a lot of that leverage into buying new military equipment from the west, which is oriented against its growing geopolitical rivalry with China (despite friendly relations on the surface and joint economic cooperation in BRICS, relations between the two countries are definitely getting chillier, as the latest escalation in the Maldives indicates).

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 20 February 2024 - 07:06 PM, said:

Watching the currency reserve burn down like the Towering Inferno is also quite an interesting experience. What happens to the Russian economy when it's all gone? Nobody knows, but few economists seem to want to find out. Russian oil and diesel exports are also down significantly in January and February because several of Russia's largest terminals keep mysteriously exploding.

The Russian economy is not about to collapse tomorrow and is more resilient than you'd expect, but it's also not in a great shape compared to a few years ago (the rouble being worth less than a third of what it was a decade ago is not great going either). There's only so much other countries can do to help. China's help seems to be more about looking good rather than actually doing anything: Chinese replacement parts for Russia's civil aviation sector have so far been fiercely criticised for being subpar, and not helping slow the dangerously escalating rate of in-flight failures.

India is also playing both sides in this: appearing to be helpful to Russia whilst basically strip-mining its deals for everything it can get out of it. It's then converting a lot of that leverage into buying new military equipment from the west, which is oriented against its growing geopolitical rivalry with China (despite friendly relations on the surface and joint economic cooperation in BRICS, relations between the two countries are definitely getting chillier, as the latest escalation in the Maldives indicates).

It's not like they're gonna go broke. CentroBank can always just print more and borrow from (largely state-owned) major banks to make more money happen. This will spur inflation further (obviously), but that's a much more gradual problem than a default. And as long as the hardliners don't get their way and try to introduce strict price controls, you aren't going to see actual deficits. Most people have enough sense to avoid this.

The ideal situation here is further slowdown due to actual workforce shortages, combined with ongoing (but somewhat slower inflation), giving us prolonged stagflation. Which will lead to more higher-tech businesses either falling back on old, less sophisticated standards, or closing up shop/relocating to places like Central Asia- gradually leading to de-industrialization.

[Werthead]

​
Reports that the Transnistrian Congress will adopt a resolution calling for Russia to annex Transnistria to its territory. Exactly how that's possible when Russia does not control the corresponding opposite territory in Ukraine, it only has ~1500 soldiers in-theatre and there's no way to airdrop troops in is unclear; possibly this is pipe-laying for much later if Putin believes he can take all of Ukraine in the long-term.

Germany has voted in favour of delivering long-range weapons including possible Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. Taurus has around a 30% longer range than Storm Shadow/SCALP and flies lower and faster, making them much harder to intercept. The Chancellor still needs to sign off on the deal. Confusingly, an earlier move to send specifically Taurus missiles was defeated, which sounded bad, until a measure that includes Taurus as well as other long-range weapons was passed instead.

Sweden has announced a new aid package with 10 assault boats and 20 landing vessels, which will be very useful in the river war, artillery ammo, TOW missiles, portable AA systems, grenade launchers and medical equipment.

Japan has also announced $12 billion in aid to Ukraine.

China, Türkiye and the UAE have now completed the process of shutting down payments and accounts into numerous Russian bank accounts, due to the threat of western sanctions. China was particularly voluble about not agreeing to this sort of thing under economic blackmail from the US, but has apparently done it on the sly.

Ukraine has shot down 7 Russian aircraft in one week, thanks to canny deployments of Patriot and other AA batteries in a manner that constantly confuses Russian aircraft in how far outside of Ukrainian airspace they need to be in order to be safe.

Qatar's government has arranged the safe return of 11 Ukrainian children from the occupied territories and Russia to their families in Ukraine.

Amidst all the coverage of Ukrainian shortages, there's been less coverage of Russian shortages, but at the moment Russia is producing only around 35% of the 152mm and 50% of the 122mm artillery shells annually it needs to achieve major breakthroughs. Russia has ramped up weapons productions but is encountering numerous problems (including manpower issues with some of their weapons production personnel forcibly recruited into the military).

A long letter but worth reading, from an American veteran fighting in Ukraine.

This post has been edited by Werthead: 22 February 2024 - 08:52 PM

[Cause]

Werthead, on 22 February 2024 - 08:22 PM, said:

​
Reports that the Transnistrian Congress....

Today I learnt that this place exists

[Mentalist]

Voenkor Murz shot himself, after his superiors told him he has to take down his TG posts regarding the losses in Avdiyivka, (and the associated inhuman conditions some of the mobiks were subjected to) or his unit would not receive supplies needed to carry on fighting effectively. The orders came from up high after Solovyov and co began to publicly hound Murz who was the original source of the "16k non-recoverable losses to take Avdiyivka" quote.

Murz was one of the OG "DNR volunteers", and he was very to the point and technical when it came to identifying logistics and communication issues in the enemy forces, as well as being instrumentla in creating supply chains between R&D concerns doing comms, EW and drone development and the MoD, basically allowing Russian engineers to test their EW and comms prototypes in the field to select what works, and then coordinating crowdfunding to bypass MoD's red tape to get the necessary equipment manufactured and onto the frontlines. In other words, he was a competent, ideologically motivated and fairly selfless enemy logistician. Thankfully, the Muscovite state machine wore him down, and we won't have to worry about him anymore.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 23 February 2024 - 04:29 PM

[Mentalist]

oh hey, apparently another A50 and Il-22 surveillance plane pair down.

Orc channels are claiming friendly fire again, as this time they both fell in Krasnodar Krai, so they didn't even make it far over the Sea of Azov.

Either way, that's a major blow to their coordination and surveillance efforts in the S. Should only have 1 or 2 A50s operational now.

This post has been edited by Mentalist: 23 February 2024 - 07:40 PM

[Werthead]

Reportedly the A-50 was shot down by an S-200, which is really quite embarrassing.

[Mentalist]

Werthead, on 24 February 2024 - 04:09 PM, said:

Reportedly the A-50 was shot down by an S-200, which is really quite embarrassing.

Since UAF only operated stationary emplacement S-200s (and the last ones were officially decommissioned in 2013), most likely it was some sort of FrankenSAM using the S-200 missiles).

overnight our drones hit a metallurgical plant in Lipets'k.